Are there any high risk players worth a gamble?

[Saxum]

15 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

 

Probably not allowed in Canada....lol

 

Since his only issues are weed and Canada allows weed now he can probably get a hearing and be allowed.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I don't expect Beane to take on any high risk players.  I can't think of one that is worth spending money to get.  AJ Green is a decent guy but has developed an injury history that is typical for players his age.  When you look back at the recent moves made by the Bills, they haven't signed any head cases or players with any red flag character issues.  There are other low risk options available to address the Bill's roster issues.

 

They're apparently looking at signing Greg Olsen, who has an injury history perhaps not too dissimilar to Green?

[Augie]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

This guy has a ton of talent but they keep finding weed in his car. But he says its all behind him now

26 years old, former basket ball player, big and can make the tough catches against smaller DBs.

 

 

The problem is obvious here.....they need to stop looking in his car! 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 parts 

 

 

When has the last High Risk player turned out well?

 

What is the percentage of High Risk players that actually turn out well?

[RyanC883]

I think Perryman (WR-Tampa) is somewhat a high risk.  The guy was a relative bust with the Ravens, had a good statistical year last year on a team that throws it A TON.  Not sure what he would be here, and he will likely be mid-range in price.  

 

Not sure I'd go after him, but I wouldn't hate it either.  

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

8 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I think Perryman (WR-Tampa) is somewhat a high risk.  The guy was a relative bust with the Ravens, had a good statistical year last year on a team that throws it A TON.  Not sure what he would be here, and he will likely be mid-range in price.  

 

Not sure I'd go after him, but I wouldn't hate it either.  

 

I could see a deal similar to Kroft’s offered to him. Maybe a little more guaranteed and higher Avg yearly salary. 

[Flip Johnson]

2 hours ago, mattynh said:

I think AJ Green is the risky guy to talk about.  High price, high output if healthy.....the risk obviously is IF HEALTHY.   Green Beckham does not seem like a McBeane type, but the risk would be low, he would not require a monster contract.

 

I'm all in on AJ Green if the price is right. Spottrac has his market value at 2yrs, 18M which seems unbelievably low to me. I would be thrilled to get him at 3/27 in a similar deal as we got John Brown.

 

- He's been in Bengals purgatory for years and has seemed to function well on a small market team.

- Huge target for JA ... his numbers are down in recent years but his YPC is not - he's still getting downfield.

- He's had a whole year away from football and would be coming with something to prove.

[foreboding]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

 

Why should he apologize to Bills? His actions made Bills not consider him which was best for Bills.

Pretty sure his comment was tongue-in-cheek.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I don't expect Beane to take on any high risk players.  I can't think of one that is worth spending money to get.  AJ Green is a decent guy but has developed an injury history that is typical for players his age.  When you look back at the recent moves made by the Bills, they haven't signed any head cases or players with any red flag character issues.  There are other low risk options available to address the Bill's roster issues.

Beane signed an injured PED busted Murphy. Kroft had injury history and so did Morse.  Spencer Long as well. There is nothing in Beane history to say he would avoid signing Green if he is cleared to play.

[msw2112]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They signed some injury risk players to decent money such as Trent Murphy and Kroft.

 

With his concussion history, Morse was huge injury risk.  Kevin Johnson had an injury history too.  It seems to me that Beane is more willing to take a risk with injured guys that are "process-oriented" rather than on guys that are "character" risks.  Duke Williams and Tyrell Dotson really don't count, because they are end of the roster fringe players on small contracts, whereby both the player and the contract can be easily shed without much issue.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

32 minutes ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

I'm all in on AJ Green if the price is right. Spottrac has his market value at 2yrs, 18M which seems unbelievably low to me. I would be thrilled to get him at 3/27 in a similar deal as we got John Brown.

 

- He's been in Bengals purgatory for years and has seemed to function well on a small market team.

- Huge target for JA ... his numbers are down in recent years but his YPC is not - he's still getting downfield.

- He's had a whole year away from football and would be coming with something to prove.

100% agree. Want him on a short term deal as you suggested. 3 years tops. Make the first two guaranteed and hope you get two great years. 

I have no interest in Cooper on a 5 or 6 year massive deal. That would eat up too much cap needed in 2022 and beyond

[machine gun kelly]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He said high risk not imminent danger.

“Danger Will Robinson, Danger”!  Only middle aged guys up even know what I’m talking about which is not being hard on the younger guys.

 

Seriously though, I could see for the right contract, maybe AJ Green, but doubt this would happen.  If anyone wanted to take a chance on a guy with a weed issue, I wouldn’t do it until the new CBA as they are either taking that away, or raise positive threshold so high players would never get for it.  Now is too risky.

 

Stampede, you crack me up at times.  Good post.

[billsbackto81]

5 hours ago, HOUSE said:

 

Minimum deal, prove it contract, any trouble SEE YA !

If the only option  AJ has is a minimum deal prove it contract I'm sure there are other teams he'd rather consider. NE, BAL, GB, DAL all come to mind. Teams that are in desperate need of #1 or solid #2 WR. He's gonna want an established QB that can boost his stock for his follow up contract. 

[Matt_In_NH]

6 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

I'm all in on AJ Green if the price is right. Spottrac has his market value at 2yrs, 18M which seems unbelievably low to me. I would be thrilled to get him at 3/27 in a similar deal as we got John Brown.

 

- He's been in Bengals purgatory for years and has seemed to function well on a small market team.

- Huge target for JA ... his numbers are down in recent years but his YPC is not - he's still getting downfield.

- He's had a whole year away from football and would be coming with something to prove.

I would do that contract also....but like you I am not sure that is his market value.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 hours ago, HOUSE said:

 

Minimum deal, prove it contract, any trouble SEE YA !

 

 

...Bungles are talking about possibly tagging him from what I read.............

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

“Danger Will Robinson, Danger”!  Only middle aged guys up even know what I’m talking about which is not being hard on the younger guys.

 

Seriously though, I could see for the right contract, maybe AJ Green, but doubt this would happen.  If anyone wanted to take a chance on a guy with a weed issue, I wouldn’t do it until the new CBA as they are either taking that away, or raise positive threshold so high players would never get for it.  Now is too risky.

 

Stampede, you crack me up at times.  Good post.

 

...well Flip Johnson posted Sportac values at 2 years, $18 mil......so if my math is correct, $9 mil a year divided by the nine games he'd probably be healthy for is a cool mil per game....

[KGun12TD]

8 hours ago, Buffalo86 said:

Has Antonio Brown apologized to the Bills yet?

 

GEM!

[HOUSE]

Hello Buffalo

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

I think Perryman (WR-Tampa) is somewhat a high risk.  The guy was a relative bust with the Ravens, had a good statistical year last year on a team that throws it A TON.  Not sure what he would be here, and he will likely be mid-range in price.  

 

Not sure I'd go after him, but I wouldn't hate it either.  

 

 

Yeah, it's not what people here want - Perriman was the #3 on a team with a strong #1 and #2.

 

Argument for: 2.5x the receiving yards production of Isaiah McKensie.  Different physical type of WR - bigger and heavier guy at 6'2", 215 lbs

 

Argument against: Did that on a team with 1.4x the passing attempts AND a more productive #1 and #2 WR, so who knows what he'd be here.  Wanted out of Cleveland when they traded for OBJ, so might not be content to take a back-seat to Brown, Beasley and Knox - but unclear he has the physical skills to move himself to the fore.  Does not play special teams.

[machine gun kelly]

8 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

2 parts 

 

 

When has the last High Risk player turned out well?

 

What is the percentage of High Risk players that actually turn out well?

Slim, the only one I can remember was Ritchie.  He gave us three solid years.

[HOUSE]

AB is the highest risk player in the league but some team will give him another shot.

They will be sorry but they will do it anyway....

 

 

 

..

Edited February 11, 2020 by HOUSE