Josh Allen 2020 MVP odds

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

Yeah.  He's been really bad to this point in his career.  One of the lowest rated QBs both years and dead last in completion percentage both years.  I don't know if that's ever been done before.  That i still think he has a puncher's chance of being a franchise QB is not in any way extreme.

 

Talking MVP is extreme.

 

I can't disagree that talking MVP is extreme in the other direction, but it's flat out misrepresenting yourself as "I"m the most moderate one on here" or to present yourself as being characterized as extreme for "pegging Allen as only having a 40% chance of being a franchise QB".

 

No, that's not not why you're being characterized as extreme in the opposite direction, it's the direct quotes I gave earlier and the focus on "dead last" even though Allen's completion percentage improved significantly and so did his passer rating (and he was not dead last there).  By the way, since the dead last thing seems to be important to you, why don't you know if it's ever been done before?  Seems like the sort of thing you'd probably want to drill into.

 

But yeah, it's your shoe, it fits you, wear it.

[machine gun kelly]

ADog,  I don’t know about you, but I watched the SB with my sons and we kept remarking how off Mahomes was in that game.  One of my sons stated Allen threw better than Mahomes tonight.

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

You answered this question by starting this thread.  Like you, many will think this 40:1 grouping was based on some analysis by bookmakers on Allen's "progress"...or something...and more likely to lay a bet than if they made him seem completely impossible at, say, 300:1, in which case few of any fans would bother to bite.  They figure they will get more action if they make it seem more likely he could win.  It's completely logical.

 

The bookies know you.....of course they are targeting fans.

Yeah. Sort of. These types of bets are generally designed for fans and not pros. The books know full well how invested Bills fans are in JA, so they'd rather you take it at 40/1 than 100/1 in the event it actually comes to fruition. 

 

Also feel like the odds are somewhat reflective of the lack of talent surrounding him and his propensity to get yards on his own. If ANYBODY on the Bills has ANY chance of winning the league MVP, it's clearly Allen.

 

Not knocking Allen here (at all); just offering an opinion on these odds from a betting perspective.

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yeah. Sort of. These types of bets are generally designed for fans and not pros. The books know full well how invested Bills fans are in JA, so they'd rather you take it at 40/1 than 100/1 in the event it actually comes to fruition. 

 

Also feel like the odds are somewhat reflective of the lack of talent surrounding him and his propensity to get yards on his own. If ANYBODY on the Bills has ANY chance of winning the league MVP, it's clearly Allen.

 

Not knocking Allen here (at all); just offering an opinion on these odds from a betting perspective.

Exactly.  Pros don’t waste money here.  This is pure money taking by books for suckers.  Easy money.  

[K-9]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

ADog,  I don’t know about you, but I watched the SB with my sons and we kept remarking how off Mahomes was in that game.  One of my sons stated Allen threw better than Mahomes tonight.

Mahomes’s game was very Josh like indeed. Crap for 3+ quarters followed by clutch late 4th quarter heroics to pull it out. 

[Chaos]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I guess... I didn't see Mahomes looking like he had a stroke and panic with a senseless lateral 5 yards behind him to absolutely no one in the last few minutes of the 4th.... heroic indeed.?

 

Josh was just usually inconsistent. He'd have plays where you'd be amazed he pulled it off and then plays where your scratching your head at his stupidity or carelessness. 

 I thought both of Mahomes very bad interceptions counted as interceptions in the super bowl. Mahomes had some very head scratching plays in that game. 

[Don Otreply]

On 2/7/2020 at 5:22 PM, billsfan89 said:

I think Josh's chances at an MVP are slim. 5% or less. He doesn't need to be an MVP to get this team to win the division and get them in a position to 12 wins and a possible first round bye. Josh needs to be a top 10 QB or at least close. If I am pegging his stats I say he has to push 4k yards, 30TD's 10 or less INT's and a 60% or better completion percentage along with sub 3 lost fumbles and 350 rushing yards and 3+ rush TD's. 

If Josh gets two more receivers that can actually catch the ball when it matters most, on top of Brown and Beasley, and does not have 16 fumbles (that’s pretty inexcusable ya gotta admit regardless of how many were lost),  and does the other things you stated, he will be considered very a successful QB, and we will all be happy, except for Tex and a few others, they are always the grumpy and unhappy bills fans, they are entertaining though, ??

 

Go Bills!!!

[Don Otreply]

16 hours ago, MJS said:

Ok, you don't seem to understand Josh or his shortcomings. Footwork has been a huge issue for him. Progressing through reads is a huge part of the game and always will be.

This^^ progressing through his reads is called seeing the field by others, it is a  really important ability for a QB. 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I can't disagree that talking MVP is extreme in the other direction, but it's flat out misrepresenting yourself as "I"m the most moderate one on here" or to present yourself as being characterized as extreme for "pegging Allen as only having a 40% chance of being a franchise QB".

 

No, that's not not why you're being characterized as extreme in the opposite direction, it's the direct quotes I gave earlier and the focus on "dead last" even though Allen's completion percentage improved significantly and so did his passer rating (and he was not dead last there).  By the way, since the dead last thing seems to be important to you, why don't you know if it's ever been done before?  Seems like the sort of thing you'd probably want to drill into.

 

But yeah, it's your shoe, it fits you, wear it.

 

 

...quite the sad commentary, isn't it Hap?......kid has had 28 damn starts.....and had 9 new starters on offense for 2019...and all he does is KEEP working his arse off to get better......makes you want to come here, right?.....hell if I'm a college QB and had a hint that Bflo was interested, I'd stay in school and get TWO PhD's before facing THIS "Welcoming Committee"......SMH.....BTW, I doubt he will be an MVP candidate this early on in his career, but.........

Edited February 9, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...quite the sad commentary, isn't it Hap?......kid has had 28 damn starts.....and had 9 new starters on offense for 2019...and all he does is KEEP working his arse off to get better......makes you want to come here, right?.....hell if I'm a college QB and had a hint that Bflo was interested, I'd stay in school and get TWO PhD's before facing THIS "Welcoming Committee"......SMH.....BTW, I doubt he will be an MVP candidate this early on in his career, but.........

 

TBH I'd seriously doubt if the negative viewpoints of some fans would have much influence on a college QB's NFL aspirations

If the guy doesn't know that the QB is the "face of the franchise" and will be criticized and scrutinized (everywhere), he needs to learn fast

 

As I've said to some Cowpoke fans who come here and are aghast, Josh Allen has his playoff-bound selfie hung in the Albright Knox Art Museum.  Hundreds of fans turn out at 2 am in the cold to welcome the team home from the Houston playoff loss. 

 

It's not as though football players in B'lo and Josh Allen QB in particular dont get any love.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH I'd seriously doubt if the negative viewpoints of some fans would have much influence on a college QB's NFL aspirations

If the guy doesn't know that the QB is the "face of the franchise" and will be criticized and scrutinized (everywhere), he needs to learn fast

 

As I've said to some Cowpoke fans who come here and are aghast, Josh Allen has his playoff-bound selfie hung in the Albright Knox Art Museum.  Hundreds of fans turn out at 2 am in the cold to welcome the team home from the Houston playoff loss. 

 

It's not as though football players in B'lo and Josh Allen QB in particular dont get any love.

 

....my apology...it was a bit of "tongue 'n cheek" walking down the pigeon stained "Red Welcome Mat"......there are just some, as you stated, that get a bit "over the top" in player criticisms, clamoring for "overnight success".......

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....my apology...it was a bit of "tongue 'n cheek" walking down the pigeon stained "Red Welcome Mat"......there are just some, as you stated, that get a bit "over the top" in player criticisms, clamoring for "overnight success".......

 

Truth.

 

Takes all types, I guess.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Truth.

 

Takes all types, I guess.

 

...Josh has started 28....remember reading an article when Kaep was the hot topic in his career ascension......an unnamed GM Exec was interviewed for his thoughts (think Kaep was around 24 career starts)......exec said, "we generally use a 50 game start window to do a proper evaluation"......some bloom before, some bloom after and some NEVER bloom.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...Josh has started 28....remember reading an article when Kaep was the hot topic in his career ascension......an unnamed GM Exec was interviewed for his thoughts (think Kaep was around 24 career starts)......exec said, "we generally use a 50 game start window to do a proper evaluation"......some bloom before, some bloom after and some NEVER bloom.....

 

I think that's where Beane and McDermott are.  They knew Allen was raw and a project.  They're going to wager 4 years of the team's success on his development, as long as he shows some progress each year and doesn't "kill us" by turning the ball over too much (if he'd continued with INTs at the rate of the first 4 games but played otherwise the same, the answer might have differed).  And why shouldn't they?  The Bills flipped their record from 6-10 to 10-6, and Allen played a significant role in that.  There was only 1 game where we were "out of it" in the 4th Q, the rest we were right there with a chance to tie or win.

 

I've said elsewhere, there are two types of errors in QB evaluation: type I, where you have a good QB and move on too early (false negative) and type II, where you have a QB who is not good enough and you pay him.  Probably Drew Brees would be the avatar for Type I (though it would amuse me no end if Tannehill joined him); Blake Bortles would be the poster-child for Type II (with Jameis Winston pending and Dak Prescott 'on deck').

 

Both types make the FO look bad.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think that's where Beane and McDermott are.  They knew Allen was raw and a project.  They're going to wager 4 years of the team's success on his development, as long as he shows some progress each year and doesn't "kill us" by turning the ball over too much (if he'd continued with INTs at the rate of the first 4 games but played otherwise the same, the answer might have differed).  And why shouldn't they?  The Bills flipped their record from 6-10 to 10-6, and Allen played a significant role in that.  There was only 1 game where we were "out of it" in the 4th Q, the rest we were right there with a chance to tie or win.

 

I've said elsewhere, there are two types of errors in QB evaluation: type I, where you have a good QB and move on too early (false negative) and type II, where you have a QB who is not good enough and you pay him.  Probably Drew Brees would be the avatar for Type I (though it would amuse me no end if Tannehill joined him); Blake Bortles would be the poster-child for Type II (with Jameis Winston pending and Dak Prescott 'on deck').

 

Both types make the FO look bad.

 

 

 

...as I head into my 58th year of following this club (holy crap I'm OLD), perhaps I'm too much of a crotchety old SOB as to why others cannot buy into your eloquent "statement of optimism" regarding this kid( 28 STARTS = A CAREER??)......haven't we endured the "WTF QB List Post Kelly" ?.......and now we get a kid with an unparalleled work ethic, "our TEAM..our FAMILY" mentality, working his stones off with Palmer, Dorsey, etc to get better, a viable community presence and patience remains an adversary versus ally?...sad bud.....

[CorkScrewHill]

16 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

You answered this question by starting this thread.  Like you, many will think this 40:1 grouping was based on some analysis by bookmakers on Allen's "progress"...or something...and more likely to lay a bet than if they made him seem completely impossible at, say, 300:1, in which case few of any fans would bother to bite.  They figure they will get more action if they make it seem more likely he could win.  It's completely logical.

 

The bookies know you.....of course they are targeting fans.

I don’t gamble .. so not targeting me. My point is why would they target specifically Bills fans. Why is Garapolo at worse odds. Are the 49er fans a less lucrative market? Think horse racing, they increase the odds on the horses that aren’t expected to do well to get people to bet on them. Sometimes there may be a horse that is a little overrated and they reduce the odds but in general the better horse have the shortest odds. In general I am of the belief that Josh Allen was a raw prospect that is improving but has not proven that he is the franchise guy. I think it is interesting that he has strong odds to be MVP but as stated Baker and Mitch had good odds last year. Those that have anointed him the franchise QB  we have been waiting for are in my mind premature as are the group that looks to bash and want to move on. However, I am more hopeful than 2 years ago.

[NoSaint]

On 2/7/2020 at 3:14 PM, CorkScrewHill said:

I find it interesting that for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about Josh Allen, going into his 3rd year the people paid to be right on such things have Josh tied for the 12th overall best QB odds of being the MVP and tied for 14th best overall odds for the award. certainly he can regress or even not grow and the luster will fade (e.g., Baker and Mitch Trubisky had good odds last year). But it does indicate that for those that are paid to look at trends the trends favor continued growth which could take him to the MVP. Considering he was drafted as the raw prospect who needed time to grow .. it is encouraging .. unless you are a negative person in which case you will focus on Mitch Trubisky and be sad for the next 7 months.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-mvp-odds-patrick-mahomes-leads-the-field-but-lamar-jackson-isnt-far-behind/

at this crossroads the team should be giving him a top 3-5 situation to succeed in - and as a qv that means you are on the list as at very least a long shot 

 

 

[BringBackOrton]

45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think that's where Beane and McDermott are.  They knew Allen was raw and a project.  They're going to wager 4 years of the team's success on his development, as long as he shows some progress each year and doesn't "kill us" by turning the ball over too much (if he'd continued with INTs at the rate of the first 4 games but played otherwise the same, the answer might have differed).  And why shouldn't they?  The Bills flipped their record from 6-10 to 10-6, and Allen played a significant role in that.  There was only 1 game where we were "out of it" in the 4th Q, the rest we were right there with a chance to tie or win.

 

I've said elsewhere, there are two types of errors in QB evaluation: type I, where you have a good QB and move on too early (false negative) and type II, where you have a QB who is not good enough and you pay him.  Probably Drew Brees would be the avatar for Type I (though it would amuse me no end if Tannehill joined him); Blake Bortles would be the poster-child for Type II (with Jameis Winston pending and Dak Prescott 'on deck').

 

Both types make the FO look bad.

 

 

Blake Bortles? You are far too harsh on his contract, which was quite reasonable for both parties.

[Mr. WEO]

52 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I don’t gamble .. so not targeting me. My point is why would they target specifically Bills fans. Why is Garapolo at worse odds. Are the 49er fans a less lucrative market? Think horse racing, they increase the odds on the horses that aren’t expected to do well to get people to bet on them. Sometimes there may be a horse that is a little overrated and they reduce the odds but in general the better horse have the shortest odds. In general I am of the belief that Josh Allen was a raw prospect that is improving but has not proven that he is the franchise guy. I think it is interesting that he has strong odds to be MVP but as stated Baker and Mitch had good odds last year. Those that have anointed him the franchise QB  we have been waiting for are in my mind premature as are the group that looks to bash and want to move on. However, I am more hopeful than 2 years ago.

No one votes on who won a horse race.

 

Bookies lay odds to even out the money and their exposure.  They take the vig. 
 

Goofy side bets like “MVP” don’t matter to them.  It’s a suckers bet so they try to maximize the sucker action.

 

look, after reading that some oddsmaker has Josh at “only” 40:1 and grouped with others you would traditionally consider better prompted you to say “these professional assessors really think Allen has a shot at MVP!”.  If you were inclined to bet,  you would say “I like those odds!”.

 

so...it worked

[CorkScrewHill]

25 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

No one votes on who won a horse race.

 

Bookies lay odds to even out the money and their exposure.  They take the vig. 
 

Goofy side bets like “MVP” don’t matter to them.  It’s a suckers bet so they try to maximize the sucker action.

 

look, after reading that some oddsmaker has Josh at “only” 40:1 and grouped with others you would traditionally consider better prompted you to say “these professional assessors really think Allen has a shot at MVP!”.  If you were inclined to bet,  you would say “I like those odds!”.

 

so...it worked

a) I never stated I thought they were good odds. I do not think he is likely to be MVP so I wouldn't bet, even if I was a bettor, at those numbers. b) I clearly stated I think he still needs to prove he can be in that discussion. I would have said the same thing about Baker, Mitch, Sam, and Lamar last year. Baker, Mitch, and Sam didn't, Lamar did.

 

I think it is interesting they have him in the mix instead of others, you don't congratulations.