More in-depth look at Bills cap space

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

That would be Chase Young. But unfortunately, there is no way we are getting him.  

one of the top WRs

[billsfan89]

55 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Last year was about stocking the roster with NFL-level talent; this year is about adding 3-4 legit superstars imo.

 

Go big. Get Clowney. Get AJ Green. Get Byron Jones or Cory Littleton. 
 

Try to be so talented on offense that your QB has literally no excuse to fail.

 

I don't get the love for AJ Green other than the love for the "name" as opposed to what a 32 year old WR who missed most of the past 2 seasons and 3 out of the past 4 seasons will actually bring to a team. But I also don't think the Bills would spend on 3-4 massive free agent signings. According to Spotrac's estimates (which are within 1-2 million most of the time and are based off of what similar players have gotten as a percentage of the cap) the Bills would have to spend nearly 50 million aav on those 3 players, I get what you are saying in that the team could do that and still resign Spain, Lawson and Phillips (or 2 out of the 3.) But then they are cap strapped going forward and could risk losing Milano, Dawkins and others as they are burdened with 3 players occupying nearly 30% of their cap none being a QB. 

 

I think the team should go after a prime edge rusher and maybe another mid-level signing or two to help the offense while resigning 2-3 of our own free agents but going on such a spending spree doesn't make sense for this team. They need to roll over 30+ million to retain their talent. 

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I don't get the love for AJ Green other than the love for the "name" as opposed to what a 32 year old WR who missed most of the past 2 seasons and 3 out of the past 4 seasons will actually bring to a team. But I also don't think the Bills would spend on 3-4 massive free agent signings. According to Spotrac's estimates (which are within 1-2 million most of the time and are based off of what similar players have gotten as a percentage of the cap) the Bills would have to spend nearly 50 million aav on those 3 players, I get what you are saying in that the team could do that and still resign Spain, Lawson and Phillips (or 2 out of the 3.) But then they are cap strapped going forward and could risk losing Milano, Dawkins and others as they are burdened with 3 players occupying nearly 30% of their cap none being a QB. 

 

I think the team should go after a prime edge rusher and maybe another mid-level signing or two to help the offense while resigning 2-3 of our own free agents but going on such a spending spree doesn't make sense for this team. They need to roll over 30+ million to retain their talent. 

 

We are not cap strapped going forward, we have $186M in space next year and $355M the following year - plenty of cash to resign our guys and at some point, yes we will have to make some decisions on Poyer and players like that- it is inevitable once you pay your QB - we are not there yet. We can easily get those players and we still have a ton of room next year and beyond

[atlbillsfan1975]

Interesting rumor that the new CBA is looking to possibly discount the QB’s cap hit to say 70% of its actual value. 
my first thought is this would be great for the Bills with hopefully the potential franchise QB contract coming for Josh in a year or two. The complicated part is how it impacts QB’s already under contract? 
 

That not withstanding, I think the Bills are sitting pretty. I agree this is the FA to sign one or two superstars. It seems to me it can take more than one season for talent to gel. Signing the big ticket FA’s now gives them a couple years before some tougher decisions will need to be made. 

[billsfan89]

8 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

We are not cap strapped going forward, we have $186M in space next year and $355M the following year - plenty of cash to resign our guys and at some point, yes we will have to make some decisions on Poyer and players like that- it is inevitable once you pay your QB - we are not there yet. We can easily get those players and we still have a ton of room next year and beyond

 

How does this team have 186 million in space next year? Isn't the cap only somewhere around 190 million? This team can't just spend 50 million on 3 players with significant bonuses that tie them to the team for 3 years and not expect it to impact the ability to resign Milano, Dawkins and even White. 

6 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Interesting rumor that the new CBA is looking to possibly discount the QB’s cap hit to say 70% of its actual value. 
my first thought is this would be great for the Bills with hopefully the potential franchise QB contract coming for Josh in a year or two. The complicated part is how it impacts QB’s already under contract? 
 

That not withstanding, I think the Bills are sitting pretty. I agree this is the FA to sign one or two superstars. It seems to me it can take more than one season for talent to gel. Signing the big ticket FA’s now gives them a couple years before some tougher decisions will need to be made. 

 

I feel a discount on QB's salaries would only widen the gap between team's with great QB's and the rest of the league. Imagine paying Mahomes 50 million and it only costs 35 on the cap or if he takes 40 (still 5 above the next highest paid) and it only counts as 28 million. I think QB's just have to decide on their salary vs their team's talent level. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

10 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

How does this team have 186 million in space next year? Isn't the cap only somewhere around 190 million? This team can't just spend 50 million on 3 players with significant bonuses that tie them to the team for 3 years and not expect it to impact the ability to resign Milano, Dawkins and even White. 

 

I feel a discount on QB's salaries would only widen the gap between team's with great QB's and the rest of the league. Imagine paying Mahomes 50 million and it only costs 35 on the cap or if he takes 40 (still 5 above the next highest paid) and it only counts as 28 million. I think QB's just have to decide on their salary vs their team's talent level. 

Fair point. I agree it could help to extend a teams ability to dominate. Good discussions to continue having and i look forward to what shakes out with the CBA.

Edited February 7, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

How does this team have 186 million in space next year? Isn't the cap only somewhere around 190 million? This team can't just spend 50 million on 3 players with significant bonuses that tie them to the team for 3 years and not expect it to impact the ability to resign Milano, Dawkins and even White. 

 

I feel a discount on QB's salaries would only widen the gap between team's with great QB's and the rest of the league. Imagine paying Mahomes 50 million and it only costs 35 on the cap or if he takes 40 (still 5 above the next highest paid) and it only counts as 28 million. I think QB's just have to decide on their salary vs their team's talent level. 

 

LOL I know.  That is the site rolling over all the unspent money into 2021.  Another way to look at it is IF Beane signed players to 80 million worth of contracts

this year and rolled over 0 $s into 2020 and those contracts were on the books for 2021 that 186 would be minus 160.

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Last year was about stocking the roster with NFL-level talent; this year is about adding 3-4 legit superstars imo.

 

Go big. Get Clowney. Get AJ Green. Get Byron Jones or Cory Littleton. 
 

Try to be so talented on offense that your QB has literally no excuse to fail.

We agree then. I have said this and many respond with how we cant afford to that because of Milano, Poyer, Dawkins, etc. That is my annoyance. We have plenty for those guys and some big free agents this year. 

[Reed83HOF]

Just now, billsfan89 said:

 

How does this team have 186 million in space next year? Isn't the cap only somewhere around 190 million? This team can't just spend 50 million on 3 players with significant bonuses that tie them to the team for 3 years and not expect it to impact the ability to resign Milano, Dawkins and even White. 

I have posted this a ton this offseason, but we have so many expiring contracts over the next 2 years (2021 & 2022) we can remake the entire team and entirely reallocate our salary cap spent vs position groups. We only have like 25 players under contract for 2021 and like 13 in 2022 and only the top 51 players count towards the cap. We have a lot of players to either re-sign or let go. Once Josh gets paid that flexibility will get cut down quickly.

 

For instance (and don't let love of players cloud your judgment through this exercise/example). When you look at cap $$ at a positional value we are average value of salary cap allocation league wide at the safety position and below average on DE.

 

Let's focus on Safety right now and I am using some assumptions to walk through the example:

 

Now you have Poyer coming up and let's say he is looking for $10M a season - that would increse the cap allocation at the Saftey position by $8 million/season - what position do you pull that $8 million from? 2 years after that Hyde is due an extension - do you also give him a $10M contract and tie $20M in 2 safeties? I doubt that since that is too much salary cap $ to devote to 2 positions in which we play Zone coverage and not Man - Zone DBs are much cheaper that Man to Man - these decisions will be made and you will see the cap allocation change accordingly back down to an average cost. They were both cheap when we got them in FA because the positional cost for Zone Safeties in our scheme is relatively cheap.This will most likely be a group that sees turnover first IMO. 

 

Now for Edge:

 

We all know we need an Edge in the worst way, we have the cap space now to sign let's say Yannick for a $17M AAV year deal. The rest cost to our cap dollars will be (let's keep this simple) $17M/year. If we don't resign Lawson, cut Trent & with Lorax retiring this will cost us ~ $4M/year more out of our $90 in cap space. Once Tre & Josh are resigned their money will eat a large hole in the remaining cap - add in Dawkins and Milano that number shrinks, but that is OK - these are the positions you want to pay - as they don't hit FA often, are hard to find in the draft and there generally are not enough in the league for everyone. 

 

And then what will happen:

 

Now when Poyer and even Hyde are due for extensions, what is more valuable to you? 2 Overpriced zone safeties who originally cost us $7M combined in cap dollars who will command $20M total, eating $13M more than they should based on positional valuation or an Edge who is infinitely more valuable from a positional standpoint. These are the decisions that will be made over the next 3-4 years as the roster churns. You have the ability this year to add those expensive pieces and rebuild your roster around your core guys and those premium positions, you will lose players, but it is much easier to replace a S than an Edge. They are all over the place and cheap as evidenced when we originally signed those 2 guys. 

 

We  have plenty of room to add premium talent now with Josh's contract and as contracts expire and players a extended, we will be paying the high AAV to those preimum positions and letting the non-premium guys walk - it is how it works

11 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

LOL I know.  That is the site rolling over all the unspent money into 2021.  Another way to look at it is IF Beane signed players to 80 million worth of contracts

this year and rolled over 0 $s into 2020 and those contracts were on the books for 2021 that 186 would be minus 160.

 

2021

38 players signed as of 2021

 

2022

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

[billsfan89]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

I have posted this a ton this offseason, but we have so many expiring contracts over the next 2 years (2021 & 2022) we can remake the entire team and entirely reallocate our salary cap spent vs position groups. We only have like 25 players under contract for 2021 and like 13 in 2022 and only the top 51 players count towards the cap. We have a lot of players to either re-sign or let go. Once Josh gets paid that flexibility will get cut down quickly.

 

For instance (and don't let love of players cloud your judgment through this exercise/example). When you look at cap $$ at a positional value we are average value of salary cap allocation league wide at the safety position and below average on DE.

 

Let's focus on Safety right now and I am using some assumptions to walk through the example:

 

Now you have Poyer coming up and let's say he is looking for $10M a season - that would increse the cap allocation at the Saftey position by $8 million/season - what position do you pull that $8 million from? 2 years after that Hyde is due an extension - do you also give him a $10M contract and tie $20M in 2 safeties? I doubt that since that is too much salary cap $ to devote to 2 positions in which we play Zone coverage and not Man - Zone DBs are much cheaper that Man to Man - these decisions will be made and you will see the cap allocation change accordingly back down to an average cost. They were both cheap when we got them in FA because the positional cost for Zone Safeties in our scheme is relatively cheap.This will most likely be a group that sees turnover first IMO. 

 

Now for Edge:

 

We all know we need an Edge in the worst way, we have the cap space now to sign let's say Yannick for a $17M AAV year deal. The rest cost to our cap dollars will be (let's keep this simple) $17M/year. If we don't resign Lawson, cut Trent & with Lorax retiring this will cost us ~ $4M/year more out of our $90 in cap space. Once Tre & Josh are resigned their money will eat a large hole in the remaining cap - add in Dawkins and Milano that number shrinks, but that is OK - these are the positions you want to pay - as they don't hit FA often, are hard to find in the draft and there generally are not enough in the league for everyone. 

 

And then what will happen:

 

Now when Poyer and even Hyde are due for extensions, what is more valuable to you? 2 Overpriced zone safeties who originally cost us $7M combined in cap dollars who will command $20M total, eating $13M more than they should based on positional valuation or an Edge who is infinitely more valuable from a positional standpoint. These are the decisions that will be made over the next 3-4 years as the roster churns. You have the ability this year to add those expensive pieces and rebuild your roster around your core guys and those premium positions, you will lose players, but it is much easier to replace a S than an Edge. They are all over the place and cheap as evidenced when we originally signed those 2 guys. 

 

We  have plenty of room to add premium talent now with Josh's contract and as contracts expire and players a extended, we will be paying the high AAV to those preimum positions and letting the non-premium guys walk - it is how it works

 

I agree that this team has the space and the flexibility to both retain 2-3 of their own free agents and add a high end contract and even a mid-level contract or two on top of that. I also agree that after 2020 there will be some contracts this team can get out of (Hughes and Star) but I think your need for future space to keep your young prime players shouldn't be ignored. This team can add a big time talent like Yannick and another mid-level pass catcher while keeping their talent and still have 30+ million to roll over. 

 

But to expect to retain 2-3 of our own AND sign three 15 million plus a year free agents just doesn't make sense for this team and how they hope to compete in the next 3 years. 

[Reed83HOF]

6 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I agree that this team has the space and the flexibility to both retain 2-3 of their own free agents and add a high end contract and even a mid-level contract or two on top of that. I also agree that after 2020 there will be some contracts this team can get out of (Hughes and Star) but I think your need for future space to keep your young prime players shouldn't be ignored. This team can add a big time talent like Yannick and another mid-level pass catcher while keeping their talent and still have 30+ million to roll over. 

 

But to expect to retain 2-3 of our own AND sign three 15 million plus a year free agents just doesn't make sense for this team and how they hope to compete in the next 3 years. 

 

We can add more than 1 top contract and there is no need to dump Hughes or Star yet, we don't have to dump anyone and can still sign 2-3 top guys and resign our own, which we don't even have to do until next year. Beane purposely created this window in year 3 of Josh's rookie contract to target very specific upgrades. We have a filled out roster and still $90M to burn with very few but specific holes. Going forward we have the luxury of determining which players after this year, who we want to keep and who we are willing to let walk based on their skill, the positional value etc. It is a masterful job for salary cap and roster management. This year was set up to take a big swing if things progressed as they had hoped.  

[ColoradoBills]

37 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I agree that this team has the space and the flexibility to both retain 2-3 of their own free agents and add a high end contract and even a mid-level contract or two on top of that. I also agree that after 2020 there will be some contracts this team can get out of (Hughes and Star) but I think your need for future space to keep your young prime players shouldn't be ignored. This team can add a big time talent like Yannick and another mid-level pass catcher while keeping their talent and still have 30+ million to roll over. 

 

But to expect to retain 2-3 of our own AND sign three 15 million plus a year free agents just doesn't make sense for this team and how they hope to compete in the next 3 years. 

 

I would reply to @Reed's83toHOF  exactly as you did.  What more I am confident that Brandon Beane and his boys have all this

projected out through the possible signing of Josh Allen long term contract (lets all hope he deserves one).

 

Personally I believe that Beane is going to look hard at a few big name players.  Whether he pulls the trigger will be about the player and his

worth more than worrying about cap space.  I just think it will be a measured approach and he won't go the LA Rams mode.

24 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

We can add more than 1 top contract and there is no need to dump Hughes or Star yet, we don't have to dump anyone and can still sign 2-3 top guys and resign our own, which we don't even have to do until next year. Beane purposely created this window in year 3 of Josh's rookie contract to target very specific upgrades. We have a filled out roster and still $90M to burn with very few but specific holes. Going forward we have the luxury of determining which players after this year, who we want to keep and who we are willing to let walk based on their skill, the positional value etc. It is a masterful job for salary cap and roster management. This year was set up to take a big swing if things progressed as they had hoped.  

 

I totally agree with this.  What we don't know yet is what Beane thinks about the available FAs vs what their cost will be and how he evaluates that.

It is a BIG off season coming up!  I for one am excited about it.

Edited February 7, 2020 by ColoradoBills

[Reed83HOF]

18 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I would reply to @Reed's83toHOF  exactly as you did.  What more I am confident that Brandon Beane and his boys have all this

projected out through the possible signing of Josh Allen long term contract (lets all hope he deserves one).

 

Personally I believe that Beane is going to look hard at a few big name players.  Whether he pulls the trigger will be about the player and his

worth more than worrying about cap space.  I just think it will be a measured approach and he won't go the LA Rams mode.

 

I totally agree with this.  What we don't know yet is what Beane thinks about the available FAs vs what there cost will be and how he evaluates that.

It is a BIG off season coming up!  I for one am excited about it.

So I was impatiently waiting for the season to hurry up and end since last year, so we could get here. This is the first year in a long ass time, I am psyched to see how everything comes together.

 

Obviously FAs will need to want to play here (thankfully we are viewed as a team on the rise and have a great training facility and have been getting good reviews around the league) and we obviously have to be smart and know when to walk away if bidding is getting out of control. There are plenty of plan's A's, B's and C's. Also they have every extension figured in with basic parameters for those players we want to re-sign (Tre, Josh, Edmunds, Milano, Oliver). I would go as far to assume they know what positions are the premium ones the want to pay. 

 

The draft is tough to predict not only at this time of the year before we know tags and UFAs. Once that first wave or 2 get done it will be easy to zero in. Trying to figure out what to do @ pick#22 is really tough since there will be many scenarios that play out in the 21 picks in front of us. I just have a hard time seeing us stay there this year, but we need a few more puzzle pieces to be filled in. 

[ColoradoBills]

25 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

So I was impatiently waiting for the season to hurry up and end since last year, so we could get here. This is the first year in a long ass time, I am psyched to see how everything comes together.

 

Obviously FAs will need to want to play here (thankfully we are viewed as a team on the rise and have a great training facility and have been getting good reviews around the league) and we obviously have to be smart and know when to walk away if bidding is getting out of control. There are plenty of plan's A's, B's and C's. Also they have every extension figured in with basic parameters for those players we want to re-sign (Tre, Josh, Edmunds, Milano, Oliver). I would go as far to assume they know what positions are the premium ones the want to pay. 

 

The draft is tough to predict not only at this time of the year before we know tags and UFAs. Once that first wave or 2 get done it will be easy to zero in. Trying to figure out what to do @ pick#22 is really tough since there will be many scenarios that play out in the 21 picks in front of us. I just have a hard time seeing us stay there this year, but we need a few more puzzle pieces to be filled in. 

 

Yep.  This is the first off season where Beane is set up to do what he wants to do, not has to do.

He had to get the D set up first because he didn't have a QB.  Then he got the QB.  Last year was about getting the O going.

 

This is the year and I want to see what he does.

 

You are right about FA and the draft.  I don't even look at the draft until FA is well underway.