transplantbillsfan Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 There's plenty in this article, but it's got a paywall so I'm trying to just get some of the highlights... https://theathletic.com/1582804/2020/02/04/what-the-advanced-stats-tell-us-about-josh-allens-growth-in-2019-and-beyond/ At one point, ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. stated, “Stats are for losers,” when defending his stance on Allen. ... With Allen’s second season in the rearview, we dove deep into the advanced stats to find where Allen made the most progress, where he still needs to improve and what the Bills can do to help him along this offseason. All stats are courtesy of SportRadar unless otherwise noted. ... Situational football Young quarterbacks often face a learning curve when it comes to performing in the red zone. The field shrinks and passing windows get tighter. But Allen excelled in this area. He completed only 48 percent of his passes, below the league average, but connected on 12 touchdowns and did not throw an interception. ... Allen also fared better on third down in 2019. After completing 46 percent of his third down attempts as a rookie for one touchdown and four interceptions, Allen improved to a 56-percent completion rate on third down with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He was 22nd in the league with 47 passing first downs, but his 17 rushing first downs on third down trailed only Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks. ... He was eighth in the league in passer rating on third-and-7 or more with five touchdowns and one interception. ... Accuracy You can attribute that to Allen’s development and the improved talent around him, as John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox all lifted the offense. The improvement could have been even more obvious if not for drops. Bills receivers dropped 6.7 percent of Allen’s passes, the highest drop rate in the NFL this season. Despite the Bills’ additions at wide receiver, Allen still dealt with 31 drops. ... A year ago, Allen posted a completion percentage 6.8 percent below expectation, third worst in football. He improved that number to 3.7 percent, which was fifth worst among qualifying quarterbacks. ... Allen’s intended air yards per pass dropped from 11 to 9.4, still fifth highest in football. ... Even a small boost to his deep passing numbers would do wonders to open up the offense. As Brent Vigen, his college offensive coordinator put it in a conversation earlier this year, “I know having had to defend his completion percentage here, we had that conversation a lot, and I’m certain it’s not going to be some barrier to lead his team to winning seasons and have a great extended career. “I do think the nature of his game, it’s challenging to be in the elite maybe in completion percentage, but you balance that with playmaking, there’s a line there somewhere. I know that’s probably going to be where his game tilts to the playmaking. As long as you go through the course of a game and that volume of throws that you should never miss doesn’t pile up, I think that’s the biggest thing.” ... He was more aggressive in 2019, throwing into a tight window (one yard or less of separation) 15 percent of the time, up from 13 percent a year ago. He’s not shying away from these tougher throws. Top competition Going into 2020, how Allen fares against top competition will be a key aspect of measuring his development. The Bills played five games against teams that qualified for the postseason in 2019. The Bills were 1-4 in those games, with the lone win coming against the Titans prior to their quarterback change. In those five games, Allen completed 51 percent of his passes for 5.6 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. ... If the Bills are going to take the next step in 2020, Allen will need to play better against top competition. Like everything with Allen, it comes down to consistency. Moving forward The Bills have nearly $90 million in salary cap space and nine picks in the upcoming draft, so what can they do to help Allen in 2020? ... If the passing offense and the team are going to take the next step, the Bills will need to continue to improve the pass protection and find a receiver capable of winning in contested situations. ... Just as important is Allen’s individual improvement and how the coaches game plan according to it. Allen had the eighth-highest time to throw this season at an average of 2.86 seconds from snap to throw. ... Allen was also much better when running play action, completing nearly two third of his passes with an 8:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He had a 124.1 passer rating when running play action from under center, completing 42-of-61 attempts for six touchdowns and one interception. Of those 61 attempts, 30 went for first downs. ... This team’s 2020 ceiling and floor are dependent on which direction Allen goes. 2 1 1
Nextmanup Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: Ugh, do we have to? So depressing...lol I know what you mean. This stuff will end at the end of the upcoming season. Nowhere to hide after that.
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 Can’t wait to see what presents Beane provides for the O this offseason—I fully expect additional growth from our young QB accordingly. 2 1
Mango Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 53 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Like everything with Allen, it comes down to consistency. This sentence is why we have all these 50 page threads on Josh. Poster A: "Josh has been really great" Poster B: "Josh has been pretty bad" Both are correct. 2
transplantbillsfan Posted February 4, 2020 Author Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Mango said: This sentence is why we have all these 50 page threads on Josh. Poster A: "Josh has been really great" Poster B: "Josh has been pretty bad" Both are correct. Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!" That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks. I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic. The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse? Answer is pretty obvious. Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School. 1 1
Mango Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said: Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!" That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks. I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic. The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse? Answer is pretty obvious. Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School. Show me on the doll where Poster B touched you... 8
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 Allen definitely showed some improvement. But no one says stats are for losers when talking about Mahomes. 2
ngbills Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!" That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks. I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic. The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse? Answer is pretty obvious. Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School. Problem with that is that it does not really matter how much he improved. Its how high he will get. People are right to have concerns about his accuracy. Yes its getting better in some regards but still not good enough. There are many people out there that dont think accuracy continues to improve. Josh has worked hard on it for multiple years now and where it lands who knows. 2
BigBillsFan Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!" That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks. I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic. The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse? Answer is pretty obvious. Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School. Your argument has no weight, it's not how far he's come at all. It's about what he does or is able to. Every QB in the league from high school advanced, the question is where do they end up. It's rarely a lack of effort that stops success, it's just mental and physical limitations. I hope it's Big Ben territory with more athleticism. Also since it's me who pointed out his completion % it's also fairly obvious that objectivity isn't the end measure, but how we feel about him at this stage. I have hope for him, but not with the offensive schemes we have. 1
Bangarang Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!" That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks. I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic. The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse? Answer is pretty obvious. Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School. Saying he’s progressed since high school doesn’t do much for me. In fact, it would be really bad if he didn’t improve. What I care about is how good he is relative to the rest of the league and if his play can lead us to sustained success. 2 3
nedboy7 Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) Stats are meaningless. Read that here many times. just go w that feeling you get as you watch drunk. Edited February 4, 2020 by nedboy7
Royale with Cheese Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, ngbills said: Problem with that is that it does not really matter how much he improved. Its how high he will get. People are right to have concerns about his accuracy. Yes its getting better in some regards but still not good enough. There are many people out there that dont think accuracy continues to improve. Josh has worked hard on it for multiple years now and where it lands who knows. Which is why we left so many points on the field. Josh did improve but he's not at the level you want a top 10 pick to be. He's showing promise, which is encouraging but he's got to take that next step.
thebandit27 Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Nextmanup said: I know what you mean. This stuff will end at the end of the upcoming season. Nowhere to hide after that. It will only end if Allen utterly flames out. I promise that, if he has a great season, the never-Allen brigade will not falter even for a moment. 2
ngbills Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: It will only end if Allen utterly flames out. I promise that, if he has a great season, the never-Allen brigade will not falter even for a moment. Just like if he has terrible seasons some will say he just needs xyz. The majority of people want him to succeed and get better. That gets confused with your just an Allen basher. If Allen becomes what Bills fans want him to be then who cares what some people say. 1
JaCrispy Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: It will only end if Allen utterly flames out. I promise that, if he has a great season, the never-Allen brigade will not falter even for a moment. You do realize that the “never-Allen” brigade was probably close to 75% of the fan base the night he was drafted, right? Most fans wanted either Darnold or Rosen, and many wanted Baker...but the very few that wanted Allen were mocked and ridiculed... Edited February 4, 2020 by JaCrispy 1
thebandit27 Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, ngbills said: Just like if he has terrible seasons some will say he just needs xyz. The majority of people want him to succeed and get better. That gets confused with your just an Allen basher. If Allen becomes what Bills fans want him to be then who cares what some people say. The majority of people, yes. There are, undoubtedly, a faction of fans that clearly would prefer that he fail so that they can be “right”. I’m sure we can all name two or three from this board. 10 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: You do realize that the “never-Allen” brigade was probably close to 75% of the fan base the night he was drafted, right? Most fans wanted either Darnold or Rosen, and many wanted Baker...but the very few that wanted Allen were mocked and ridiculed... Well, since I was on record (many times over) as wanting any of the 5, yes, I’m well aware of people’s pre-draft opinions (most of which were based upon absolutely zero analysis beyond what they read). I was among Allen’s biggest backers. Not because I felt he was a sure thing, but because he had a real shot to be the best QB in the class. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 4, 2020 Author Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Mango said: Show me on the doll where Poster B touched you... 1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Allen definitely showed some improvement. But no one says stats are for losers when talking about Mahomes. Are you having an argument with the voices in your head? 1
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted February 4, 2020 Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: The majority of people, yes. There are, undoubtedly, a faction of fans that clearly would prefer that he fail so that they can be “right”. I’m sure we can all name two or three from this board. Well, since I was on record (many times over) as wanting any of the 5, yes, I’m well aware of people’s pre-draft opinions (most of which were based upon absolutely zero analysis beyond what they read). I was among Allen’s biggest backers. Not because I felt he was a sure thing, but because he had a real shot to be the best QB in the class. Yes you have been there since the beginning on Josh. I was not and I came around very quickly on the kid. I wish we had a few more people who could own up to and be honest about their views on Josh since the start.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 4, 2020 Author Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Bangarang said: Saying he’s progressed since high school doesn’t do much for me. In fact, it would be really bad if he didn’t improve. What I care about is how good he is relative to the rest of the league and if his play can lead us to sustained success. Wow... good job distorting what I said
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