Reid and Mahomes acknowledge impact of Alex Smith

[JMF2006]

13 hours ago, Commsvet11 said:

If Josh Allen was on KC would they have the same success? 

 

If he had a year behind Alex Smith.....yes.

 

I have said it all along that Alex was as big  a part in Mahomes success as Andy and Eric are.

 

The kid does have talent but he also has more weapons(on field and coaching) than Josh does.

[BigBuff423]

I've said it in other places, and while to me it didn't need to be stated to be understood, thanks Hap for sharing because this to me was a major advantage for Mahomes in KC vs. coming to Buffalo. We've had that discussion ad nauseum and in another thread so I won't take it there. Mahomes' ability to learn, even for just a year, behind a former #1 overall pick was very important and instrumental in getting him to think and act like a Pro. 

 

Of course Mahomes was already supremely gifted and had the internal drive to be the best, but having a mentor of sorts to guide you through that first Rookie season when everything can seem overwhelming, has a profound impact on the first year development. Good for Mahomes and Reid being able to speak openly about it and for Mahomes to be as humble as he was to state that a player who is no longer on the team contributed to his success. 

[Big Turk]

14 hours ago, BuffalothruMyVeins said:

Would it be crazy to maybe see if Smith is available to come in and compete for backup QB with Barkley? I know he had that bad injury, and I believe he has a big contract number with Washington, but in the chance that they cut him... 

 

If we were to bring him in and he were the backup, I think we should get a 3rd QB, bia the draft or whatever, as I'm not thinking Smith would be a great option to actually play more than a few quarters, he would be more of a guy to help Josh Monday-Saturday.

 

Have you lost your mind?  Do you even know anything about Alex Smith right now?  The dude has had 17 surgeries and counting on his leg, almost died from a bacterial infection that turned into sepsis from spreading to his blood and is lucky he can even walk right now.  And you think he is coming back to the NFL?  Are you serious? There is no team in the their right mind that would ever clear him to play football again.  He will be lucky to simply live a normal life and should be over the moon happy if he can simply get back to that point again.

Edited February 4, 2020 by matter2003

[Hebert19]

13 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Even without Alex Smith Mahomes would be the exact guy he is now.

Disagree.  

 

Look at how much allen advanced when we brought in DA.  And DA is not near the cerebral QB that alex smith is. Tyrod is not that same guy.  He cannot read defenses and relies on athleticism.  

[Chaos]

27 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

If he had a year behind Alex Smith.....yes.

 

I have said it all along that Alex was as big  a part in Mahomes success as Andy and Eric are.

 

The kid does have talent but he also has more weapons(on field and coaching) than Josh does.

1.  love Josh Allen. Think he will be great.
2. Patrick Mahomes will also be great
3. The super bowl was not the best I have seen Mahomes play. 
4. Regarding "has more weapons".  Kelce and Watkins both made plays in that game that kept drives alive that no bills receiver would have made. Mahome consisently through behind Kelce, whose ability to adjust is amazing.   Three drive saving plays is a huge number in a game.   

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I never said he was on the cusp of losing his job, or that I've written off the MVP (even remotely) so congrats on defeating the best arguments I've never made.

 

I did say if Allen has a bad year next year, or has the same stats as this year his job will be on the line.

 

And yes if you didn't know that QB rating, YPA and fumbles aren't huge components to long-term success than your rose colored glasses aren't changing color soon.

 

COMPARE important stats:

YPA vs rushing per game

Passing TDs vs rushing TDs

Passing yards vs rushing yards

You'll see history hasn't been kind to people who use your stats.

 

BTW I'm not a big fan of QBR but I ask you if QBR and best players have any connection?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc

It appears it's a decent indicator of all the top QBs except Aaron Rodgers this year.

 

Or maybe if Josh Allen can't beat Gardner Minshew on QBR, QB rating, YPA, YPG & more TDs as a QB with 14 games as a rookie than any argument is viable. I mean I would be ecstatic if Allen could have pulled what Nick Mullins did for the 49ers last year this year. Nick Freaking Mullins

 

 

Ah yes....the football world is still abuzz over that sweet Nick Mullens 8 game, 3 win stretch where he threw 13 TDs to go with 10 ints (was working on a nice 26/20 season!).  But

that YPA!!  Conversely, the football world was almost uniformly commenting on how bad Josh Allen looked this year and that he has a single season left to turn it all around. 

 

And since you brought it up:  Mullen's QBR (for a fraction of the season) was 51.7.  Allen's this year was 47.3.  No meaningful difference there.  While 11 QBs were above 60, 8 players were clustered between 47.3 and 53.7, including Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Goff.

 

 Unfortunately we will never know what your potential source of ecstasy's QBR would be if he had to play a full season... 

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Ah yes....the football world is still abuzz over that sweet Nick Mullens 8 game, 3 win stretch where he threw 13 TDs to go with 10 ints (was working on a nice 26/20 season!).  But

that YPA!!  Conversely, the football world was almost uniformly commenting on how bad Josh Allen looked this year and that he has a single season left to turn it all around. 

 

And since you brought it up:  Mullen's QBR (for a fraction of the season) was 51.7.  Allen's this year was 47.3.  No meaningful difference there.  While 11 QBs were above 60, 8 players were clustered between 47.3 and 53.7, including Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Goff.

 

 Unfortunately we will never know what your potential source of ecstasy's QBR would be if he had to play a full season... 

 

Wait you do realize his 3-5 record is the same as Allen's right? Except his defense sucked that year. You also realize we're comparing an undrafted QB to a 1st rounder too right?

 

Perfect game to compare...

 

If Allen had a game like this: https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018120213/2018/REG13/49ers@seahawks

And we lost we would all be excited for his potential. Wilson threw horribly that game, but the Seahawks ran the ball great, while 49ers fumbled and couldn't run the ball.

 

And YES ALLEN won this game in 2018 against the Titans with his UNREAL and border PRETERNATURAL ability at 10/19 passing for 82 yards

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018100700/2018/REG5/titans@bills

 

But let's all pretend the Mullins sucked and LOST that game, but Allen was responsible for the win just like Brees sucked when they went 7-9 3 years in a row.

 

The fact we can argue Mullins vs Allen is the joke right now. That's my point.

 

[BigBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

YPG is a nonsense stat. Depends far too much on how many throws a guy made, play calls, how often his team was ahead and whether they like to run out the clock, as the Bills do, when they are ahead.

 

And what a surprise that you left all the running stuff out!  Gosh, who could have predicted that? Except anyone looking at your agenda, of course....

 

So even throwing out the run stats, which shouldn't be done, he wasn't bottom third after those first four games. Again, what you have there is a very questionable opinion.

 

YPG is some measurement of success. A QB throwing under 200 yards per game will typically score less points. The correlation is obvious. Being LAST in that category practically means we have to score 17 points to win and keep the opponent under that.

 

We're not talking about middle of the pack, we're talking about LAST. LAST in YPG = sucks.

 

YPG is a non-sense stat IF you're an amazing running team with sustained success. Big Ben's stats his first 3 years are an indicator of that. He walked into a great situation. If that was our identity I would agree with you. Ben as a rookie threw only 187 YPG but his YPA was 8.9 and his accuracy was 66%. Teams had to respect his arm.

 

Also only 18 teams were over 200 yards per game in passing in 2004 & 2005 (Ben's rookie year), today that number is 27 teams are over 200 yards.

 

Of course I left out running, no QB ever has succeeded long term as a running QB. We'll talk about how amazing Lamar Jackson DID in 2019 and maybe 2020 but not in 2025 unless he develops in the pocket. Men peak in speed around 22-26 years of age and after taking shots it goes down rapidly.

 

Running stats have NEVER been a measure of a QB success long-term. If I'm wrong name me one, if I'm right realize you're the troll

[The Process]

18 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

Tyrod was so bad in 2017 that the Bills thrust Nathan Peterman out there.

 

Which means a talented kid like Mahomes would have been starting the 3rd or 4th week of the season when he wasn't ready and would have gotten killed on the Bills 2017 offense.

 

Mahomes would have been playing in 2017 and his career would be hanging on by a thread right now.

 

No Kelce's, no Hill's, no Hunts (when Mahomes first started) on that 2017 Bills team.

Two Kelces? Two Hills? Two Hunts? .....I'm so confused.

[CincyBillsFan]

It's possible that several things can be true at the same time such as:

 

*  Mahomes is a great QB and looks to be a generational talent.

 

*  Mahomes came into the NFL in the BEST situation a rookie QB could hope for.  From coaching to surrounding offensive talent to first class mentor at QB show me a QB who started their career in a better situation?

 

*  Mahomes is unlikely to have matched his KC performance had he been drafted by the Bills in 2017.

 

*  Allen is likely to have progressed faster & put up better numbers had he been put into the same situation with the Chiefs that Mahomes was.  Watching the SB and imagining Allen starting in place of Mahomes and I frankly think the result would have been similar.

 

*  IMO when we look back on all this in 5 years everyone will agree that it was a HUGE WIN/WIN for both teams.  Both the Bills & Chiefs will have their SB winning Franchise QB's and the Bills will have an all pro CB & LB to go along with it.

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

1 yr in football is a long time. His job is safe this year. That's not the cusp of losing his job. Football years are like dog years.

 

"Improve Big this year or you're done here" sounds the cusp of losing his job for a #7 overall pick at the most important position on the team, but whateves.

 

Quote

You do know that the goal of winning isn't on 1 person, no? That development and seeing signs they can succeed on the big stage is more important than winning? That people on bad teams aren't responsible for all of the losses or that people like Peyton Manning who showed promise as a rookie was much better than playing it safe for wins right?

 

Nick Mullins in his rookie year showed more than Allen in his and his 2nd year. Are you really going to deny that? If Allen had any games like Mullins THIS year people would be hush hush about development.

 

I'm just not going to prolong debate with a guy who can make the above statements. I'll just point out the paradox of simultaneously pointing out the impact of the team, vs the claim that Mullins in his rookie season showed more than Allen in his 2nd year.  Then there's the point that CJ Beathard is still on the roster as the #2 guy.

 

If Nick Mullins were regarded around the league as more promising than a 2018 1st round pick who outplayed 2 other 1st round picks this season, don't you think GMs would be burning up the phone lines to SF playing "let's make a deal"?  I don't want to diss on the guy - he came in and did what he was asked to do, reasonably well.  But the fact that his completed air yards per pass attempt are 3.9 and his YAC > CAY really should tell you what that was.

 

 

Now I'm out.

[dickleyjones]

18 hours ago, Commsvet11 said:

It is a a simple question, yes or no, does Josh Allen have the same success as Mahomes if he is on KC? 
 

haha yeah it's a "simple question"...with no way of knowing the correct answer.

[BigBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Let's just say that if it were true that Mullins in his rookie year showed more than a #7 draft pick in his second season, GMs across the league from teams who need QB would be burning up the phone lines to make a deal for the guy.

 

I'll just point out the paradox of simultaneously pointing out the impact of the team, vs the claim that Mullins in his rookie season showed more than Allen in his 2nd year, then I'm out.

 

There are tons of guys who show massive promise as a rookie or their 2nd year but aren't a high pick and waste their careers with no opportunities because they weren't drafted as high. Duck Hodges was better in practice than Mason Randolph but they played him even when it was obvious he was stinking up the joint.

 

Same was true between Trent and Losman, and RGIII and Cousins.

 

Do you really think Trent Green was better than Kurt Warner until his injury or that Eli Manning was better than Warner, or that Matt Leinart was better than Warner?

 

Facts are coaches are forced to play inferior players because the GMs and possibly coaches are forced to look smart with whom they drafted because they see a higher upside.

 

I've seen you post a bunch, you know this is true. Players rarely get a fair shake and teams are willing to lose rather than miss on QB to make their point. Whaley went so far to blow 2 1sts on Watkins to save his job to salvage EJ.

 

The 1st round is a grave yard of GMs careers wanting to be proved correct on the QB. Just ask Brian Billick was a great coach turned heel over Boller. GMs and coaches even destroy their QB roster to give the 1st rounder confidence they won't lose their job. I mean why in the world would you keep Peterman over McCarron?

 

A lot of QBs are never given a fair shake just because of where they are drafted.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

 

 

The fact we can argue Mullins vs Allen is the joke right now.

 

 

yes.  yes it is...it's quite laughable.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Have you lost your mind?  Do you even know anything about Alex Smith right now?  The dude has had 17 surgeries and counting on his leg, almost died from a bacterial infection that turned into sepsis from spreading to his blood and is lucky he can even walk right now.  And you think he is coming back to the NFL?  Are you serious? There is no team in the their right mind that would ever clear him to play football again.  He will be lucky to simply live a normal life and should be over the moon happy if he can simply get back to that point again.

 

If he's cleared to play football, he is not a FA; he is under contract to Washington, and Rivera has said he will compete for their QB job.

[formerlyofCtown]

18 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Nonsense! The 2017 Bills had a decent OL with Wood & Incognito still around.  They also had a younger Shady at RB.  They won 9 games & made the playoffs.  If Mahomes was the QB, they would have had a ton of early picks in 2018 to shore up the O-line (after Wood & Incognito) left & get a WR or 2.  

 

If Mahomes was playing in 2017 the Bills would be Super Bowl champs today.  

You don’t know that.

 

Josh Allen is our QB and I’m glad he is.  Enough of the nonsense.  If it matters that much then go get you a red jersey.

[2003Contenders]

20 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

There are tons of guys who show massive promise as a rookie or their 2nd year but aren't a high pick and waste their careers with no opportunities because they weren't drafted as high. Duck Hodges was better in practice than Mason Randolph but they played him even when it was obvious he was stinking up the joint.

 

Same was true between Trent and Losman, and RGIII and Cousins.

 

Do you really think Trent Green was better than Kurt Warner until his injury or that Eli Manning was better than Warner, or that Matt Leinart was better than Warner?

 

Facts are coaches are forced to play inferior players because the GMs and possibly coaches are forced to look smart with whom they drafted because they see a higher upside.

 

I've seen you post a bunch, you know this is true. Players rarely get a fair shake and teams are willing to lose rather than miss on QB to make their point. Whaley went so far to blow 2 1sts on Watkins to save his job to salvage EJ.

 

The 1st round is a grave yard of GMs careers wanting to be proved correct on the QB. Just ask Brian Billick was a great coach turned heel over Boller. GMs and coaches even destroy their QB roster to give the 1st rounder confidence they won't lose their job. I mean why in the world would you keep Peterman over McCarron?

 

A lot of QBs are never given a fair shake just because of where they are drafted.

 

This is a fair take.

 

The reality is that even as a Josh Allen doubter, you have to acknowledge that given the reality of what you stated above, the Bills will provide him with at least the next 2 years to sink or swim.

 

Bill Parcells always said that teams have a 4-year strategy when it comes to assessing highly drafted young QBs. Year 1: he is a rookie learning what it is like to be an NFL QB, so that season serves as a mulligan (assuming the talent flashes are there). Year 2: Signs of improvement need to show up. Year 3: He needs to show the ability to go out and win games. Year 4: You either have your Franchise QB or decide to move on.

 

By any measure, Josh Allen is well on track. Let's hope he continues the progression entering his 3rd season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Selective amnesia won’t change the truth.

 

 

Not an issue of selective memory here.  I'm sure you heard it; I hear all kinds of stuff on this board all the time. 

Doesn't make them reasonable assertions or "truths" to propagate down the years, as a comparison of Tyrod Taylor's vs Alex Smith's actual playing careers would reveal.

 

 

[Commsvet11]

38 minutes ago, dickleyjones said:

haha yeah it's a "simple question"...with no way of knowing the correct answer.

There is no right answer, it just shows the thought process some people have, so far I have had three people say that Yes Josh Allen would have the same success as Mahomes if he was on KC team. 

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

 

This is a fair take.

 

The reality is that even as a Josh Allen doubter, you have to acknowledge that given the reality of what you stated above, the Bills will provide him with at least the next 2 years to sink or swim.

 

Bill Parcells always said that teams have a 4-year strategy when it comes to assessing highly drafted young QBs. Year 1: he is a rookie learning what it is like to be an NFL QB, so that season serves as a mulligan (assuming the talent flashes are there). Year 2: Signs of improvement need to show up. Year 3: He needs to show the ability to go out and win games. Year 4: You either have your Franchise QB or decide to move on.

 

By any measure, Josh Allen is well on track. Let's hope he continues the progression entering his 3rd season.

 

Here's the crazy thing... I'm not a Josh doubter at all, I want him to get the chance to be a great QB. I want him to start next season.

 

Here's what I hope for... turn him into a simpler QB, focus more on running the ball and have him just throw faster out of his hand. I wouldn't care if we really become a running team. I see flaws he can grow into, I just don't think Daboll will do that. I think he'll try to outsmart the opposing DC.

 

I really don't think if he does dink and dunk with a strong running game and an above TE we can't have success with this defense and I certainly think Allen's first half in the playoffs shows he can do even more than that. But give him a chance.

 

I don't think Daboll is allowing that, and I think he'll ruin Allen's chances.