Kirby Jackson Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 Also @Virgil thank you for doing this again this year!! This is possibly the best, most fun thread each year (and time that we do it). It’s a lot of work on your end but everyone ends up having a good time with it and takes it seriously. ? 7 1
Kirby Jackson Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, GG said: This is a separate rationale than giving up major assets to go for a specific player who may not check all the boxes, though. How did this work out in the last very deep WR draft in 2014? If we drafted Evans, Mack or OBJ it would have been a great decision. Sammy was considered the best WR in years and was the highest rated player on the Bills board over a 2 or 3 year span (and not just the Bills). They had a need and tried to grab an elite talent with a high floor and ceiling. His floor is where he has ended up but it’s still “productive starting WR with injury issues.” The Bills don’t need “bodies” this year. This roster needs some difference makers. If ever there was a time to trade 2 bodies for 1 star it is now. If they believe there is a drop off after Jeudy, Ruggs and Lamb, they should try to go get them. While another Brown or Beasley caliber guy makes them better, a guy that you have to scheme for makes everyone better. You could have argued a year ago that DT wasn’t a big need with Star, Phillips and Phillips. The best player on the board was Ed Oliver and he will be elite. They took the elite talent and are better for it. 4
GG Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: If we drafted Evans, Mack or OBJ it would have been a great decision. Sammy was considered the best WR in years and was the highest rated player on the Bills board over a 2 or 3 year span (and not just the Bills). They had a need and tried to grab an elite talent with a high floor and ceiling. His floor is where he has ended up but it’s still “productive starting WR with injury issues.” The Bills don’t need “bodies” this year. This roster needs some difference makers. If ever there was a time to trade 2 bodies for 1 star it is now. If they believe there is a drop off after Jeudy, Ruggs and Lamb, they should try to go get them. While another Brown or Beasley caliber guy makes them better, a guy that you have to scheme for makes everyone better. You could have argued a year ago that DT wasn’t a big need with Star, Phillips and Phillips. The best player on the board was Ed Oliver and he will be elite. They took the elite talent and are better for it. You should almost never trade up for any prospect other than a QB, and historic data proves it. The 2014 draft was an epic fail on so many levels, but also has to be looked in the context of the GM needing to salvage a bad QB decision two years prior. The Bills don't need a lot of bodies this year, but they need the right bodies to fill out the roster, and using up two high draft picks to select the 3rd best WR in a very deep draft is reckless. Also, the Bills absolutely had a need to backfill the DL in the 2019 draft, because Star was on a short leash, Shaq was in his last contract year, Phillips resigned for a prove-it one-year deal, and Murphy proved to be unreliable. Even after drafting Oliver, DL remains a huge need for Buffalo this offseason. Trading up in this draft and missing out on the very few blue-chip defenders would be horrendous.
Virgil Posted February 7, 2020 Author Posted February 7, 2020 I’ll make the Jags pick at 11 if we don’t here from Buffaloko 1
GunnerBill Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, GG said: You should almost never trade up for any prospect other than a QB, and historic data proves it. The 2014 draft was an epic fail on so many levels, but also has to be looked in the context of the GM needing to salvage a bad QB decision two years prior. The Bills don't need a lot of bodies this year, but they need the right bodies to fill out the roster, and using up two high draft picks to select the 3rd best WR in a very deep draft is reckless. 2014 was only 1 year after EJ. As for this year, I think it is risky. It is not particularly what I am advocating, but I don't think it is reckless if you think that there are 15 good receivers but only 3 elite ones then I have no problem with trading up for the elite one. If you get it wrong - like they did with Sammy - they will get hammered for it. But if you get it right like Atlanta did with Julio..... well that's a different story. 1
RyanC883 Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 16 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said: OL and WR will be what they pursue in FA. I perceive both as needs. From what I have seen of Our GM and HC. They will not have any perceived needs going into the draft. So that BPA is in play. I agree with OL. I just don't see a WR in FA who is worth it or will even produce to the level that Hooper/Henry will. I hope we get Hunter/Henry and Conklin (OL).
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 24 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: I agree with OL. I just don't see a WR in FA who is worth it or will even produce to the level that Hooper/Henry will. I hope we get Hunter/Henry and Conklin (OL). I'm with this also - one of the reasons I'm for us pursuing a FA TE is because I see better value there than in the FA WR. I wouldn't mind a shot on a mid-pack guy like Perriman if they see value there. I'm cautious of Henry due to injury history, but I also feel more trust in our current medical and training staff to better assess players injury status (Kroft notwithstanding). I don't want AJ Green. He's a great player, but the combination of age/injury history is scary. 1
Virgil Posted February 7, 2020 Author Posted February 7, 2020 With the 42nd pick in TSW Mock Draft 1.0, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Jacob Eason, QB, Washington. Even with Minshew Mania, our decision to release Foles left us thin at the position. Eason has all the raw skills we look for in a QB, similar to a Josh Allen. We hope to give him the time to develop and have a healthy quarterback competition in a few years. While this wasn't an initial target, he was clearly our highest rated talent on our board. The Chicago Bears @section122 are on the clock 2
Kirby Jackson Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 53 minutes ago, GG said: You should almost never trade up for any prospect other than a QB, and historic data proves it. The 2014 draft was an epic fail on so many levels, but also has to be looked in the context of the GM needing to salvage a bad QB decision two years prior. The Bills don't need a lot of bodies this year, but they need the right bodies to fill out the roster, and using up two high draft picks to select the 3rd best WR in a very deep draft is reckless. Also, the Bills absolutely had a need to backfill the DL in the 2019 draft, because Star was on a short leash, Shaq was in his last contract year, Phillips resigned for a prove-it one-year deal, and Murphy proved to be unreliable. Even after drafting Oliver, DL remains a huge need for Buffalo this offseason. Trading up in this draft and missing out on the very few blue-chip defenders would be horrendous. BB trades up as often as he trades back. The Saints trade up a lot too. I don’t buy you shouldn’t trade up AT ALL. It depends on your roster situation and where the drop offs are. if you have Ruggs, Lamb, and Jeudy graded as top 15 players and the next tier Ayiuk, Shenault, Reagor, Higgins or whomever graded at 25 and below I’m all for trading up. This is the year to go after the best of the best even if it results in fewer bites at the apple. The Bills have 9 draft picks this year. They are not going to have 9 rookies on the roster. 2 years ago they may have done that. Those picks are currency to target players that make you better. The difference between player 53 and 54 is infinitely less important than the difference between player 22 and 23. That’s the point. The Bills have “good enough players” at the back of their roster like Daryl Johnson, Tommy Sweeney, etc.. that they shouldn’t care if it’s them or someone else. They need players at the top of the roster to make them better. You pay a premium in terms of picks and cap dollars to get those types of players. 3
MAJBobby Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 Anyone looking to slide back, the Eagles are willing to listen
Buffalo Junction Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Bills fans always do. The objective should be to get the best guy. I maintain there is no fanbase in the league more obsessed with the size of receiver than the Bills fan base. Despite the fact that we have had big guys over the years and it has never ended particularly well they constantly obsess about size over talent. Pick the best guy. Better players get open more than average players whether they are 5ft7 or 6ft4. A large part of this fan base seems to not understand that “open while covered” is just vertical separation from height and/ leaping ability.... and subsequently a faster 5’11”-6’ guy with a 40” vertical can actually be open when covered, a la AB, OBJ, Steve Smith, etc. 1
H2o Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 58 minutes ago, Virgil said: With the 42nd pick in TSW Mock Draft 1.0, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Jacob Eason, QB, Washington. Even with Minshew Mania, our decision to release Foles left us thin at the position. Eason has all the raw skills we look for in a QB, similar to a Josh Allen. We hope to give him the time to develop and have a healthy quarterback competition in a few years. While this wasn't an initial target, he was clearly our highest rated talent on our board. The Chicago Bears @section122 are on the clock Is it really feasible to release Foles monetarily? 1
MAJBobby Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, H2o said: Is it really feasible to release Foles monetarily? Not until after this year. They could theoretically trade after June 1st for a small cap savings
GunnerBill Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Not until after this year. They could theoretically trade after June 1st for a small cap savings Not unless there is a new CBA. If there is not there is no post-June 1st designations this year. 1
MAJBobby Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: Not unless there is a new CBA. If there is not there is no post-June 1st designations this year. Crap Meant Pre Jun 1- A Trade before June 1st give Jags 18.75M Dead and a Cap Savings of 3.125M A Release Pre June 1 gives Jags 33.875M Dead and a Cap Savings of -12M 1
Virgil Posted February 7, 2020 Author Posted February 7, 2020 (edited) 34 minutes ago, H2o said: Is it really feasible to release Foles monetarily? Then I guess we kept him Edited February 7, 2020 by Virgil 2
Reed83HOF Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, GG said: Not only that, but Bills trade #2 pick to move up 7 slots? Beane would be rightfully burned alive for that trade for that pick in this draft. Virgil's 10% overpay required significant more capital than it should have been based on our 2018 draft day trade up from #22 to #16. A deep draft does imply that the tier 2 talent is ready to step in right away on Daboll's offense and make route adjustments based on reads. You also don't have 2 years to wait for a WR to develop, as Beane said we didn't score enough points & Josh needs more weapons. Shenault is not that, nor is Jefferson, nor is Higgins, nor is Aiyuk - the top 3 are ready to play in the NFL though.... 1
section122 Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 With the 43rd pick the Bears select Trey Adams OT Washington. Can't look for Trubisky's replacement just yet so I am going to get him some protection. @BuffaloHokie13 and the Colts are on the clock Please do yourself a favor and google pictures of this meat head lol 1 2
Reed83HOF Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, JMF2006 said: I was thinking the same thing. Plus we get a speed guy that does not play well against press. I thought the objective was to draft a big go up and get it guy who is open even when covered. Watch some video and not just comment on assumptions of a fast player and reading some small pieces of scouting reports on the interwebs. He is a dynamic player and much different than smoke - he can stop on a dime, accelerate instantly, makes contested catches, can catch a back shoulder pass, can adjust to the ball, can go over the middle, run verts, is an outstanding run blocker, a YAC master, will lower the shoulder into DBs and will draw safety coverage away freom the others and open up the defense - which is something else we are missing. He is a 3 year player and a 2 year starter who has improved every year and is an explosive high-ceiling pick, which fits Bean's RD1/RD2 criteria. Later rounds and other tiers of players have more question marks = bigger wash out potential and will require a lot more development and can't jump in right away and run Daboll's offense for a WR. Lamb, Jeudy & Ruggs are the 3 ideal WRs to jump in and help out right away. Seeing you are making an off the cuff comment like this, please provide some facts and insights into what other WRs can jump in right away, run a good route tree, make reads based on the defense. I would also say that the 2 Alabama players, have a little exposure to Daboll as well. Remember according to Beane we need TO SCORE POINTS & HELP JOSH. Please try to think critically with your response
RyanC883 Posted February 7, 2020 Posted February 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Virgil said: I’ll make the Jags pick at 11 if we don’t here from Buffaloko I'll do the Jags in Rd. 3 if we are doing a 3rd round. I did the first, first round pick for them.
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