TSW Mock Draft 1.0 - Complete

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, Philo said:

 

The more I read your posts on the topic the more I am coming around to the idea. Get that elite talent to allow the offense to take that next step. Free agency is going to say a lot about whether or not Beane is following your line of thinking. If DE and CB2 is addressed then I can definitely see Beane taking that big swing.

 

We have the later rounds picks to package and move back up into say round 3 to mitigate the loss of picks in a trade up scenario. There's no way 6 Day 3 picks make the roster. 

FWIW I'm probably 1000000% wrong, but it makes a lot of sense to swing big this year.

 

Josh is still on his rookie deal, we have $90M in cap space this year, $182M next and $355M in 2022. Go get him that guy to actually take a step forward this year, fill the roster and upgrade with the $90 million in FA and then start resigning your own next year and the year after. 

[CNYfan]

I will  take Rams?

[Philo]

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

FWIW I'm probably 1000000% wrong, but it makes a lot of sense to swing big this year.

 

Josh is still on his rookie deal, we have $90M in cap space this year, $182M next and $355M in 2022. Go get him that guy to actually take a step forward this year, fill the roster and upgrade with the $90 million in FA and then start resigning your own next year and the year after. 

 

Yeah not saying you are right, but I completely understand the line of thinking and can see it playing out. Whether or not it does happen, I agree the context is different from the Sammy trade. And the framework of the deal should be similar to the trade up for Edmunds, which wasn't that bad. 

[Virgil]

5 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I will  take Rams?

You already have them 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

Sammy was tough, I thought Mack, but you have the top 3 guys there and could have taken any of them and kept that 1st year pick the following year, which we knew would be a premium pick. It was dumb, but Sammy was a great prospect.  

 

Actually on my board it is Lamb, Ruggs is not far behind and then Jeudy. I was high on Jeudy going into the season, but he has slid down a hair and I would move for any of them around pick#13. They are all top tier talents and better than the next grouping, a lot less question marks, higher ceilings, less development time.

 

Remember true cost to move to #16 based on our trade in 2018 was #22 & #65 (3rd - very high third) = #16 plus their 5th RD Pick#154. 

 

The difference between pick 15 & 16 is 50 points, which is equal to a mid 4th and we have one that is worth 47 pts with pick #125

Ok.  To each is his own.  Boils down to how you grade Ruggs compared to the other WRs in this draft.  I view him closer to the 2nd tier of 1st rd WRs than the top 2.  
 

i see a guy like Reagor and think about drafting him at 22 and keeping all of those picks or having Ruggs and is a no brainer.  Jmo 

[Just Joshin']

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Ok.  To each is his own.  Boils down to how you grade Ruggs compared to the other WRs in this draft.  I view him closer to the 2nd tier of 1st rd WRs than the top 2.  
 

i see a guy like Reagor and think about drafting him at 22 and keeping all of those picks or having Ruggs and is a no brainer.  Jmo 

The wash out rate on 1at round receivers is high.  So rather than reach let it come to you and double down with a pick you were giving up.

[bkep32]

how long has bengals been on the clock?

[Pete]

Is there a master list of best available?

[Virgil]

Just now, Pete said:

Is there a master list of best available?

No, not yet since we did this one so early 

[Buffalo Junction]

31 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

It's tough man. I'm thrilled the season went as well as it did; the issue with having a good season is this. Going into the year looking at all of the potential question marks on offense - will the Oline gel, how will the TEs work out, what will RB end up like, you knew that Beasley and Brown would help, but it was still an underwhelming WR group that lacked true star power and that played out during the season.

 

Beane was as honest as anyone could be at the end of season presser - we didn't score enough points.  What held us back on most of our losses this year, the inability to move the ball and score points? A lot of that was from the lack of pass catchers on this team and not having a threat other than Josh to game plan against.

 

The "problem" you run into in having a good amount of wins is sliding down in the draft where you can get the right talent that you need to get that talent it will cost you and you have to weigh it all out. If we were right around pick#15 it would be ideal, now to make a move, that you really should make - it is going to cost you, but we have a very solid roster and not a ton of needs. so you can be a bit ballsier than you normally would be. We are not close to the the 2014 Bills roster, but closer to the 2011 Atlanta Falcons who gave up Pick#26 (RD1), pick#59(RD2) & pick#124(RD4) for pick#6 to take Julio.

 

I'm stealing this from Bandit in another thread, but don't discount what is required of a WR in Daboll's offense - they have to read the D and know what route to run against it; we don't run the wildcat, or other gadget plays etc. Learning a route tree takes time, being able to make the correct reads takes time etc. How do you fix what the GM said is your biggest need to score points? What are the underlying causes of that - lack of a big time player to draw coverage away from your #2 & #3 WRs, your developing TE with iffy hands and one with a bad ankle. 

 

The Watkins issue was trying to force a WR on a crappy QB choice in the previous draft. I hate looking at these old drafts, our FO was so awful it makes me sick to my stomach. There were so many holes, but Mack was the correct choice. At that point WR was a premium position that we did not need. This year, it is the exact position we need and it is for the difference maker like a Julio and not someone who needs to marinate for a few years. I really think Beane is going to swing big, if, he fills the rest of the holes in FA. We have not spent a premium pick on offense except for Allen.

 

I think you chose right for GB, their D still has quite away to go and limits what the offense can really do. You can't push talent up the board to fill a need.

It certainly gets more difficult as teams improve. I just don’t see a Julio or Megatron in this draft class. For that reason I’d want to double down on WRs. Perhaps take a high ceiling player and a high floor player later along with a lineman, etc. That’s a bit skewed by my view of our WR depth chart.... I see two starters (Brown & Beasley) and a bunch of WR 4’s or WR5’s. Basically viewing it as 3 WR spots that can be improved, which is why I like the extra picks for the Bills. I see the merit in getting “the guy”. We were lucky this year though, and I just can’t Phaethon how bad the O would have looked last season if Smoke has gone down with no one behind him. 

[Pete]

Brandon Aiyuk WR along with Burrow and Mixon form good play making trio going forward

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

The wash out rate on 1at round receivers is high.  So rather than reach let it come to you and double down with a pick you were giving up.

While I’d be happy with a handful of WRs at 22 I’d be good with waiting til rd 2 or, even better, trading down, the using those picks to trade back up.  
 

[Virgil]

The Seahawks @BuffaloHokie13 are on the clock

[BuffaloHokie13]

With the 34th pick in the NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Terrell Lewis, EDGE, Alabama.

 

@whatdrought and the Lions are on the clock.

[Reed83HOF]

Just now, NewEra said:

Ok.  To each is his own.  Boils down to how you grade Ruggs compared to the other WRs in this draft.  I view him closer to the 2nd tier of 1st rd WRs than the top 2.  
 

i see a guy like Reagor and think about drafting him at 22 and keeping all of those picks or having Ruggs and is a no brainer.  Jmo 

 

So here is Beane on WRs for a few weeks back

 

https://theathletic.com/1554270/2020/01/22/what-brandon-beane-is-looking-for-in-wide-receiver-prospects-at-the-senior-bowl/

 

Beane and Sean McDermott have both acknowledged the importance of surrounding Josh Allen with more playmakers he can trust, more weapons who can open up a passing offense that ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

 

Recognizing a need is one thing; finding the players to fill that need is another. So far under Beane, the Bills haven’t drafted a receiver before the sixth round. McDermott took Zay Jones in the second round in 2017.

 

This is why I am expecting a big change this year for this position. It has simply not been invested in with elite athletic talent.

 

Beane’s scouting philosophy is rooted in a few basic principles:

 

 1.) Get an in-person look at players. Whether that’s a live game during the fall or an event like the Senior Bowl, Beane likes to see how he moves around up close, understand how he interacts with other players and takes to coaching, feel the way he handles his opponents.

2.) Likes to meet a player off the field. He routinely couches his opinion on prospects or position groups in a given draft class if he hasn’t yet sat down and met with any of the players in a private setting.

3.)looking for the right personality traits to make sure he’s drafting a player who is both an extreme competitor taking football seriously and also one who will assimilate well to the locker room culture the team has in place.

4.) Football IQ & the White board - we have heard all about this over the last 2 drafts for our RD1 & RD2 guys

5.)  In college football, receivers rarely face press coverage or complex coverage schemes. Not many get the opportunity to run a diverse route tree. The nuances of route running aren’t of the utmost importance with so much open space in secondaries.

 

Beane comments:

 

“We were just talking about this because, for a lot of these guys, it’s the first time they’ve faced press coverage,” Beane said. “You want to see how they do and how they react. There’s so much free release in a spread offense, so how is a guy going to deal with the length and the strength of some of these corners that play in the league? Can he get off press or is this guy a slot only? There are some good guys here where you know he’s never going to win outside. There’s a certain value you put on a slot-only guy. They have value, but they’re less versatile.

 

“There’s that, plus the coverages. NFL coverages are way more disguised, harder for these guys to read. And there are certain route concepts where a guy does need to know the coverage to know what he’s going to do. He may have options in his route based off of Cover 2 or Cover 3, man or zone.”

 

“Some of these schools, we joke that the guy has three routes: a go, a stop and a curl,” Beane said. “There’s a lot more intricacies when they get to the NFL with the route running. So physically, can they do it? Do they have the skill set, or is this a straight line guy who can’t get do anything else? Also, you have to figure out the mental. Are they only lining him up on the left side. I’ve seen a guy one year in the SEC where they only lined this guy up on his sideline, so they could tell the guy what they were running or somebody would give a signal of what the defense was. You have to figure out whether it’s the system or are they trying to hide the player?”

 

I think this is Tee Higgins, he mostly runs out the outside and isn't an over the middle type guy. Lots of outside stuff 

 

“It’s like quarterback,” Beane said. “Quarterbacks used to never make an impact before Year Three. The game has evolved. When you have guys as talented as some of these guys coming out and there’s seven-on-seven leagues growing up, the passing game is way more advanced than it was for guys coming into the league. Guys are more exposed to the passing game and different coverages.”

 

My Rankings/Rambled Thoughts

 

I actually can see Ruggs being the darling of the class in hindsight; he is one of the most explosive WRs I have ever seen - it's not like Goodwin who was a track star who couldn't catch. His speed is not that far off of Usain Bolt's and he is a real life functioning WR. His ability to stop and immediately start right back up and blow by someone is crazy. He isn't just a fast guy, he makes back shoulder catches, he catches with his hands, he is a great run blocker, he can take the top off a defense and actually catch the ball, he scores a ton of TDs. A 3-year player and a 2 year starter. He fits our RD1 draft profile high ceiling ridiculous athlete. Ruggs improved form last year to this year. Biggest issues are working on his overall release techniques, which hasn't required too much development thus far because of his explosiveness and his not as polished of a route tree like Jeudy & Lamb, but he has improved over his 2 years as a starter.

 

CeeDee is a complete WR, reminds me of Hopkins, just doesn't have the explosion athletically that Ruggs has, but is a more polished player. This is exactly the high-floor high-ceiling player Beane loves. He is actually the ideal build and WR everyone even on this site would agree with and want. This is the best WR in the class and what I actually gave up in our mock might be what we really have to pay. RD1, RD2 and RD4 if we can get 2011 Atl pricing. 

 

Jeudy - the guy who I loved going into this season, outstanding route runner, which fits us ideally well, but he isn't great with contested catches and can have some drop issues at times. 

 

My ranking is Lamb, Ruggs Jeudy. 

 

Next crew is Higgins, who I just am not into. Not a good route tree, not as athletic as other WRs, some release issues, gets dinged up and not want we need in a #1 IMO. Justin Jefferson is a very solid #2 guy for me. I like Reagor, but he lacks some physicality when he plays, he isn't a blocker like Ruggs, lacks a diverse route tree, which means he won't be a day 1 difference maker and will take some time. Aiyuk I like but he has to work on his hands and not letting the ball get on top of him, which will be an issue with Josh. 

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

46 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

The wash out rate on 1at round receivers is high.  So rather than reach let it come to you and double down with a pick you were giving up.

 

The wash out rate in RD 1 is poor scouting, relying on projections without enough information to back it up and reaching to fill a need - See CJ Spiller & Aaron Maybin. Football IQ plays a lot into it as well See Ledois McKelvin, CJ Spiller. The washout rates you see are fgor the Marquise Lee's Kelvin Benjamin's and players who are outside of the tier 1 groups. People hate on Sammy but he sill still be a productive player in the league for awhile. I also question his football IQ. 

 

In RD1, especially the top of it, you draft high-floor high-ceiling players on athletic potential. It's not that Sammy was a bad pick, that is the guy you make a move for, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. That is how the draft works. There bust rate always seems higher in RD1 than the other rounds, but there are much fewer great WRs (who generally take more time to develop) in the latter rounds and the wash out rate round after round is awful as well. 

[Buffalo Junction]

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Next crew is Higgins, who I just am not into. Not a good route tree, not as athletic as other WRs, some release issues, gets dinged up and not want we need in a #1 IMO. Justin Jefferson is a very solid #2 guy for me. I like Reagor, but he lacks some physicality when he plays, he isn't a blocker like Ruggs, lacks a diverse route tree, which means he won't be a day 1 difference maker and will take some time. Aiyuk I like but he has to work on his hands and not letting the ball get on top of him, which will be an issue with Josh. 

 

 

I like Reagor more than most. Primarily looking at skill set and competitive nature. He’s a willing blocker, but lacks technique. He’s a more physical than he gets credit for. He’s just smaller which is why I’m not sure he’s a match for the Bills. That said he can hand fight and high point the ball very well. You’re dead on with the route tree. However, he has all of the quickness and agility to sink his hips and turn into an excellent route runner.... by year two. 

[Reed83HOF]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I like Reagor more than most. Primarily looking at skill set and competitive nature. He’s a willing blocker, but lacks technique. He’s a more physical than he gets credit for. He’s just smaller which is why I’m not sure he’s a match for the Bills. That said he can hand fight and high point the ball very well. You’re dead on with the route tree. However, he has all of the quickness and agility to sink his hips and turn into an excellent route runner.... by year two. 

 

He is a great prospect if it was us 1 year ago and I love him for Denver in RD2. You also have to factor in, we need to really start to understand what we have in Josh, years 4 & 5 are right around the corner. Do you want to get stuck with an Andy Dalton/Goff or do you want to be sure he is the guy?

 

I enjoy this part of the offseason, because of all of the various nuances. Once we can get through the first week or so of UFA we will have a good picture as to where we are going. You should check out the Shenault thread, there is some good stuff in there from Bandit & Badol

 

 

[whatdrought]

I know I’m on the clock. Don’t skip me- it’ll be In shortly!

[Rc2catch]

50 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

The wash out rate in RD 1 is poor scouting, relying on projections without enough information to back it up and reaching to fill a need - See CJ Spiller & Aaron Maybin. Football IQ plays a lot into it as well See Ledois McKelvin, CJ Spiller. The washout rates you see are fgor the Marquise Lee's Kelvin Benjamin's and players who are outside of the tier 1 groups. People hate on Sammy but he sill still be a productive player in the league for awhile. I also question his football IQ. 

 

In RD1, especially the top of it, you draft high-floor high-ceiling players on athletic potential. It's not that Sammy was a bad pick, that is the guy you make a move for, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. That is how the draft works. There bust rate always seems higher in RD1 than the other rounds, but there are much fewer great WRs (who generally take more time to develop) in the latter rounds and the wash out rate round after round is awful as well. 

I don’t like giving up the picks to move up, BUT in this situation you’re 100% correct. 
If they identify a player as you did that you feel is can’t miss and a game changing elite talent you go get him. We have good players. We are lacking in the elite category. If that receiver hits and turns out elite it’s a genius trade. If he busts its possibly a future firing. GM’s take these shots all the time, you have to try. 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Rc2catch