BigBillsFan Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/28/2020 at 7:10 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: That's my understanding, although it would depend maybe on just where it is - closer to the knees might be a drop I guess? They score a drop as something that should be catchable with "ordinary effort" not by leaping, dropping to the turf, or laying out. I was just looking to see if I could find the criteria quickly and I didn't, but it's something like it it hits (or could hit) both hands in a rectangle roughly between just over the receiver's head to his thighs or knees, and a bit wider than his body. If the receiver jumps two feet in the air and it hits both fully extended hands, it's a catchable ball, but it's not a drop. I've read that too. I'm curious to know if it's a static area they consider catchable. I saw a few passes the board was screaming DROP that very few WRs could catch, and even then not consistently. Knox and Singletary are the only blatantly violators throughout the season.
The Frankish Reich Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Just a minor correction here, Frankish: The drop percentage goes off the targets, not after the adjustment for "catchable balls". Pro-football-reference, which uses the NFL next gen stats as far as I know, credits Knox with 10 drops, 20% of his 50 targets. So if we posit he had about 37-38 catchable balls, there's some "good news/bad news": -the good news is that he's getting his hands on pretty much everything catchable that comes his way, and could be on track to become that 75-80% catch % TE we need -the bad news is it means the actual % of catchable balls he dropped could be more like 25%. Beasley had almost as much in YAC (4.9 vs 5.1). McKenzie had more, but I believe that's attributable to the shovel-passes on the successful jet sweeps. Thanks. PFF’s methodology is kind of a mystery to me since I’m not a subscriber. As for YAC, I’m probably over-interpreting that one beast mode (and it was only one) play. So maybe it’s better to say “has more YAC potential than Allen’s other WR/TE targets.” Bottom line: I say he had a promising rookie season, and he’s bought himself at least a year to show the the drops can be corrected.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said: Thanks. PFF’s methodology is kind of a mystery to me since I’m not a subscriber. As for YAC, I’m probably over-interpreting that one beast mode (and it was only one) play. So maybe it’s better to say “has more YAC potential than Allen’s other WR/TE targets.” Bottom line: I say he had a promising rookie season, and he’s bought himself at least a year to show the the drops can be corrected. Oh, for sure he gets time to show what he can do. I think the question is just how much rent money do we bet that he'll take a big step? Do we count on it? Is Kroft enough of a backup plan? Do we make a push for a FA? The topic here is PFF, but to be clear, I'm talking pro-football-reference, which is free, and has nothing to do with PFF as far as I know.
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