The Draft Network Studs and Duds with Market Value some of the UFAs

[BillsCuse]

2 hours ago, Estro said:

I think I may be in the minority here, but I see absolutely no reason to give Tre White an extension this offseason.  The Bills have him under contract for:

 

2020: $1.8M

2021: about $10M (once 5th yr option exercised)

2022: about $17M (estimated CB franchise tag)

 

That's a hell of a value and the Bills have the leverage.  The time for an extension to be done with White would be after the '21 season or at the very earliest during the '21 season if you wanted to roll some of the signing bonus $ into that season for cap purposes.  

 

Matt Milano, on the other hand, will likely be extended this offseason or during the season.  And expect Milano to get Kwon Alexander/Shaq Thompson type money which is going to be a lot more than most Bills fans probably anticipate.....about $12.5M - $14M per yr.

I understand what you are saying, however I would extend him this year for a couple reasons. 

- One is that the market rate for CB's (or any position for that matter) will go up every year.  If you extend him soon compared to in a few years, it will save $ per year and on the total amount of the deal

- Another is they can front load some of it this year while they have a ton of cap space.  Then his deal won't eat up so much cap space for future years

-And I agree with you on Milano.  I have a feeling he will out price us and will be drafting his replacement.   Which I am cool with.  With Edmunds a couple years after him, I don't see 2 big deals into LB's

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, noacls said:

If Milano thinks he is getting that, BYE. Milano gets pushed around and cant tackle. He is an average to slightly above average linebacker. Alexander and Thompson are much better LB's than Milano. 

If Milano was on another team I doubt many on this board even talk about him. If he was a free agent anbd we signed him to $12-14M contract people would be like WTF are we doing. There are a lot of guys that can do what he does in this league and he is not some physical freak. If he left we could replace him and not miss a beat. That does not mean he sucks just that he is a decent player in a good system with good players around him. Easy plug and play type of spot. 

[DCbillsfan]

58 minutes ago, BillsCuse said:

 

-And I agree with you on Milano.  I have a feeling he will out price us and will be drafting his replacement.   Which I am cool with.  With Edmunds a couple years after him, I don't see 2 big deals into LB's

Another point - Milano's position is the easier one to replace.  White just made the pro bowl and is a top 5 CB.  Dawkins is a 3 year starting LT and it takes longer to develop OL guys.  If Bills let Milano walk after 2020, they could draft his replacement within first 3 rounds of 2021 draft or sign a cheaper veteran.

[CEN-CAL17]

9 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

 

 Same school as TJ Watt. The guys at TDN love him but like him as OLB in 3-4. I read a few reports about him struggling with strength and leverage rushing the passer at the senior bowl. I would love him in the third but I think he might be a bit of a reach in the first 2 rounds.

This kid is going top 40 no doubt.... he was a high school track star, he’s gonna run a 4.6 40 yard dash. His 3 cone will be faster than a lot of WRs. 12.5 sacks, smart kid, can play in any scheme. He’s just a football player.

 

 

[wppete]

Id like to see us sign WR Robby Anderson from the Jets to a decent contract and draft WR Tee Higgins or WR Laviska Shenault  in the first Round. 

[thunderingsquid]

On 1/27/2020 at 11:15 AM, ngbills said:

I will take those two signings along with Hooper :). Then this draft I just did on their site

 

 

22 Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Colorado

54 Joshua Uche, EDGE Michigan

86 Tyler Biadasz, IOL Wisconsin

118 Raequan Williams, IDL Michigan State

137 Chase Lucas , CB Arizona State

149 Michael Onwenu, IOL Michigan

168 Lamical Perine, RB Florida

181 Scott Frantz , OT Kansas State

187 Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB Appalachian State

That site is the gold standard.  I also love Marino's Bills podcast.  

[John from Riverside]

On 1/27/2020 at 10:19 AM, MAJBobby said:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/studs-and-duds-market-value-buys-in-2020-nfl-free-agency

 

Notables - I would do BOTH these at these assigned values

 

A.J. GREEN, WR

Projected average per year salary: $9.1 million

 

YANNICK NGAKOUE, DE
Projected average per year salary: $17.1 million

 

I would also do these and they seem like common sense moves to me

 

I would also draft a WR in the 1st round to go along with Green

[LSHMEAB]

11 hours ago, DCbillsfan said:

We're in agreement.  My idea of a big contract is the 5 year deals at $20M per year types.  Along the lines of Mario Williams and Marcel Dareus.  I don't think Beane goes there. 

 

Star's contract and even Morse's are pretty good sized contracts but were done out of necessity imo.  The Bills couldn't wait for a draft pick to develop into a starter.  I believe this is why they pay Shaq even at $12 M per year.  Should be a very interesting off-season for the Bills.

I believe Yannick would be worthy of a big deal. The guys that concern me in this regard are the DT's who tend to get fat and lazy. Edge rushers are slightly less risky in that regard.

 

BUT. If they resign Shaq and draft a DE early, I'm good.

[LSHMEAB]

17 hours ago, ny33 said:

We also need to add some CB depth

Agreed, but I believe McDermott can fix this problem by looking under a rock. He's been masterful this far at filling corner spots. I think with Tre on one side, there's no need to invest a high draft pick or even a mid to high FA at corner.

 

I think we may fundamentally disagree on the importance of edge rushers. I believe it is THE most important aspect of a defense and I don't think the Bills are good enough as is. 

 

They've got to invest MOST of their capital in offense, but adding a stud pass rusher is a contingency plan of sorts in the (hopefully not) event that Allen remains stagnant or doesn't take that next step.

 

We don't blow that 16 point lead with a disruptor like Yannick on the field. We don't allow BAKER MAYFIELD to drive right down the right with a major disruptor.

 

The defense is very, very good, but they weren't quite good enough to carry them. With the pieces in place, I would not neglect pass rusher or RUN GAME acquisitions. As a disclaimer, I'm not "sold" on Allen just yet, so I'd like to see them remain competitive (just in case) it doesn't pan out as we hope.

 

With a strong run game and that one pass rusher, it will actually take alot of pressure off Josh as well.

Edited January 29, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[Mickey]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I would also do these and they seem like common sense moves to me

 

I would also draft a WR in the 1st round to go along with Green

 

It's common sense to blow 9 million on a WR who finished the last two seasons on IR and hasn't played a game of football since November of 2018? Do we even know he can play at all let alone be a difference maker? That was no average ankle injury he suffered, the ligaments were torn and clearly did not heal when expected. It would be irresponsible to spend that kind of money on a guy who might never see a single play in a regular season game when we have tough decisions to make on guys we already have who had great years and whose contracts are up. Crappy teams take gambles like this hoping to get lucky. Fools buy lottery tickets which are a waste at any price. Trust the process. Build through the draft, sign your good players. That's our philosophy. People are drunk over the fantasy that AJ Green of 5 years ago can be ours for a song. Absent a time tunnel, it aint gonna happen.

 

https://www.foothealthfacts.org/conditions/chronic-ankle-instability

Edited January 29, 2020 by Mickey

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, Estro said:

I think I may be in the minority here, but I see absolutely no reason to give Tre White an extension this offseason.  The Bills have him under contract for:

 

2020: $1.8M

2021: about $10M (once 5th yr option exercised)

2022: about $17M (estimated CB franchise tag)

 

That's a hell of a value and the Bills have the leverage.  The time for an extension to be done with White would be after the '21 season or at the very earliest during the '21 season if you wanted to roll some of the signing bonus $ into that season for cap purposes.  

 

Matt Milano, on the other hand, will likely be extended this offseason or during the season.  And expect Milano to get Kwon Alexander/Shaq Thompson type money which is going to be a lot more than most Bills fans probably anticipate.....about $12.5M - $14M per yr.

 

No you are right. And unless there is an extension to the CBA before the league year paying White this offseason means giving up a year of cost control because of the escalator rules at the end of the current CBA. They absolutely should not pay him this offseason in those circumstances. 

15 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

If this draft is as deep in WRs as the draftniks claim, then this is the way to go.  A vet like Green would give Allen an instant target and give time for the rookies to develop.

 

IMO, a history of concussions or chronic knee issues would be bigger detriments to signing a player than having an ankle injury. 

 

Go read up on exactly the injury Green had though. It is no normal ankle injury. 

 

There is a price at which I am willing to take the Green gamble. But I am honestly extremely sceptical about how much there is left in the tank. 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, wppete said:

Id like to see us sign WR Robby Anderson from the Jets to a decent contract and draft WR Tee Higgins or WR Laviska Shenault  in the first Round. 

 

I wanted us to draft Robby Anderson. Not sure he fits the Beane and McDermott mould personality wise but the guy has had three consecutive 50+ catch years each with 750+ yards and at least 5 touchdowns. And that has been with Josh McCown, 26 games of year 1 and 2 Sam Darnold and a few games of Luke freaking Falk at Quarterback. I would be very happy to see the Bills make a run at him. 

[John from Riverside]

15 hours ago, Mickey said:

 

It's common sense to blow 9 million on a WR who finished the last two seasons on IR and hasn't played a game of football since November of 2018? Do we even know he can play at all let alone be a difference maker? That was no average ankle injury he suffered, the ligaments were torn and clearly did not heal when expected. It would be irresponsible to spend that kind of money on a guy who might never see a single play in a regular season game when we have tough decisions to make on guys we already have who had great years and whose contracts are up. Crappy teams take gambles like this hoping to get lucky. Fools buy lottery tickets which are a waste at any price. Trust the process. Build through the draft, sign your good players. That's our philosophy. People are drunk over the fantasy that AJ Green of 5 years ago can be ours for a song. Absent a time tunnel, it aint gonna happen.

 

https://www.foothealthfacts.org/conditions/chronic-ankle-instability

Mickey,

 

You obviously have your doctor's give him a clean bill of health before giving the contract....if the injury is as bad as you say...they will find it.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

On 1/27/2020 at 3:55 PM, thenorthremembers said:

The cap goes up yes, but the inflation of contracts go up to match the rising cap.  If you think they can easily extend White, Dawkins, Milano and Poyer then have the money to bring back a guy like Lawson and then still have cap to go get one of two twenty million dollar a year guys like Cooper or Ngaekou and still have cap to offer Hooper or Henry Id say you play too much Madden or grossly underestimate what they are going to have to pay their own players.   White alone probably gets an average of 17 million a year.  Then Dawkins, Milano and Shaq will all be between 9 and 12.5 a year.    

add all that up and subtract the salaries of guys like Star, Hughes, Murphy, Long, Lee Smith, and Tyler Kroft who will likely be off the books by the time most of those extensions kick in. Let me know what kind of numbers you get. 

[ngbills]

26 minutes ago, Chemical said:

add all that up and subtract the salaries of guys like Star, Hughes, Murphy, Long, Lee Smith, and Tyler Kroft who will likely be off the books by the time most of those extensions kick in. Let me know what kind of numbers you get. 

Agreed. But no matter how you look at it if you have $90M in cap space you better have room to sign some guys with significant contracts. 

 

Look at the key guys all locked in for the next 2 and some even 3+ years:

 

OFF: Allen, Singletary, Brown, Beasley, Knox, Morse, Ford 

DEF: Star, Oliver, Hughes, H Phillips, Edmunds, Hyde, White, T Johnson, S Neal

 

We have the ability to spend a ton of money and still be fine in a few years when decisions need to be made on guys. Perfect time to sign some higher priced players and draft future replacements. No more needing to sign mid tier depth guys. We have a ton of that already. 

[thenorthremembers]

5 hours ago, Chemical said:

add all that up and subtract the salaries of guys like Star, Hughes, Murphy, Long, Lee Smith, and Tyler Kroft who will likely be off the books by the time most of those extensions kick in. Let me know what kind of numbers you get. 

Around the same time Hughes and Star are off the books for 19.5 million youll be paying Allen and Edmunda 52.  If you add in Murphy for 9, Long for 4.5, Smith at 2.5, and Kroft at 6.5 thats 38.5 not counting any dead cap...deficit of 13.5 million.

 

Alot of you are going to be gravely upset when they arent players on the 20 million dollar men.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

34 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Around the same time Hughes and Star are off the books for 19.5 million youll be paying Allen and Edmunda 52.  If you add in Murphy for 9, Long for 4.5, Smith at 2.5, and Kroft at 6.5 thats 38.5 not counting any dead cap...deficit of 13.5 million.

 

Alot of you are going to be gravely upset when they arent players on the 20 million dollar men.

deficit for 13.5 million plus 90 million in current cap space. 
 

i don’t  really care if we get a 20 million dollar player. But to be afraid of it for cap purposes isn’t based in reality. 
 

These contracts aren’t fully guaranteed. 

[thenorthremembers]

9 hours ago, Chemical said:

deficit for 13.5 million plus 90 million in current cap space. 
 

i don’t  really care if we get a 20 million dollar player. But to be afraid of it for cap purposes isn’t based in reality. 
 

These contracts aren’t fully guaranteed. 

Not plus 90 million, you still have to pay the other players.

 

Not scared for cap reasons Ive just been over through their yearly table time and time again and if you extend the players I originally said, even with cutting Kroft, Long, Yeldon and Murphy you still cant sign top level free agents and not have long term implications on who you can sign down the road.  Unless you sign said free agents on two year deals.  Thats an option I suppose.

[ngbills]

5 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Not plus 90 million, you still have to pay the other players.

 

Not scared for cap reasons Ive just been over through their yearly table time and time again and if you extend the players I originally said, even with cutting Kroft, Long, Yeldon and Murphy you still cant sign top level free agents and not have long term implications on who you can sign down the road.  Unless you sign said free agents on two year deals.  Thats an option I suppose.

Cap is $220M+ total. The Bills are below by the $90M.

 

The cap is not like in the past when it barely increased. It now increases $10-20M per year.

 

There is zero way to spin a team that has $90M in cap space does not the ability to spend. 

[thenorthremembers]

24 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Cap is $220M+ total. The Bills are below by the $90M.

 

The cap is not like in the past when it barely increased. It now increases $10-20M per year.

 

There is zero way to spin a team that has $90M in cap space does not the ability to spend. 

The cap was 188.2 million this year.   It hasn't been explicitly communicated, but the NFL said on 12/11/2019, that they expected it to be between 196.8 and 201.2 Million, not 220 like you say here.   That said the Bills have close to 25 million is rollover cap, so in essence you 220+ is correct.    They have plenty of cap space, I never said they didnt.  What I said is, after they extend the players already on the roster, and sign their own free agents, and keep a 10 million plus pool like Beane likes to do, they arent going to have the cap to spend on guys like Ngaekou, and Cooper.  You guys can argue it all you want.    And they can front load the contracts all they want, but eventually you have to pay the piper.