The Draft Network Studs and Duds with Market Value some of the UFAs

[ny33]

4 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Well, he isn't exactly "their own" considering he was a holdover from the previous regime.

 

On top of that, Shaq is going to get A LOT more than people seem to believe. If you simply look at his numbers, he appears to be a budding star. I could go into detail about how his stats are skewed, but there will be a team that views him as something he's not; a potential game changing stud. He is not.

 

Yannick, on the other hand, is a major DISRUPTOR, something the Bills defense desperately needs. I would guess that the difference in price will be in the 5 mil range. Considering the cap isn't really an issue and the Bills only real NEED defensively is a stud pass rusher, I'd gladly pay the difference assuming we have a shot at Ngouke.

We also need to add some CB depth, especially given that our base defense is a nickel, and a replacement for Alexander (will be interesting to see if we go for another LB with range and coverage skills like Milano so that we can defend against the run better than from the nickel).

 

An elite pass rusher makes a difference to any team, but I think our defense places nearly as much value on having a solid CB rotation (just as we do on the DL) so that injuries are less impactful and starters stay fresh.

 

I would guess that we go for a WR/RB/RT first, but wouldn’t be surprised if we take a corner or LB in the 2nd/3rd and before a rusher. If Beane thinks we have the space for Yannick + resigning our own guys this year and going forward, I agree that he’s worth the money (though I would rather spend the money on Cooper if he’s available and interested). Keeping the depth at DE (resigning Shaq) and getting a reliable RT /another starting-caliber wideout would be more impactful/likely, in my opinion. Allen needs to have the tools and protection to be able to play to his and this team’s potential and give us the ability to keep up in a shootout and not play down to the level of inferior teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, or Jets. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by ny33

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

I truly think a player to watch is Zack Baun. They call him Zack Sack, dude is 6’2” 240. I think an NFL club can easily get him closer to 250. Dude is quick off the ball, hard to block and is slippery. Wisconsin played him all over the field. Can drop back and stunt from a stand up edge rusher. 12.5 sacks senior year. Smart dude.

 

I get it, everyone wants a WR. This FO has made it clear they don’t believe in a true #1 WR is necessary in this league to be successful, they’ve said it. But also this defense is the heart and sole of the organization. Losing Lorax is a big deal. He was a more dynamic player then most give him credit for. The guy would line up over the OG and rush. The right LBs and a heavy DL rotation is what makes this defense work. Vosean Joseph is not Lorax replacement, won’t happen. Unless they just stop running most to all packages Lorax ran. OLB/Edge type players are not deep in this draft, especially ones who are good in pass coverage. 
Zack Baun is that guy. He’s gonna run a 4.6 40 yard dash, be one of the quicker edge type guys and he will move up the boards. He’s already being talked about as a 25-32 late round 1 guy.

 

Baun reminds me of a poor mans Von Miller but better than Miller in the pass game.

 

Bills grab a legit WR at 54, maybe sneak up a couple spots (Ford) type move. Grab a CB in round 3.

 

People should really start watching, keeping their eye on Zack Baun. 

 

Im all in on Baun.  Edmunds, Milano and Baun as our LB Corp would be amazing. Grab a guy like Yannick Ngakoue. Scary.
 

Id watch his highlights before replying. Dude flies around and makes plays. Of this style play, he’s by far the best in this draft. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Love Zack Baun. One of my favourite players to watch in college football. I think you are right in this defense he is the replacement for Zo as the strong side linebacker. I think he is a high 2nd round grade who could sneak into the backend of the first round. He is a little stiff and upright to be as productive in the NFL as he was in college from a rush perspective and he needs to add a bit more upper body strength (easy done in an NFL strength and conditioning programme) as well.

[ProcessTruster]

16 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

On Ngakoue, I have no clue why anyone thinks he is getting anything less than 19 or 20 million dollars a year.

 

Frank Clark got 20 million last year on a 188.2 million dollar cap

Trey Flowers got 18 Million last year on a 188.2 million dollar cap

 

Ngaekou is younger than both those players, and is more productive than both of those players.   Why would a younger, more productive player, on a larger salary cap suddenly get less money?  It doesnt make any sense.   Logic and inflation would tell you his Projected salary shouldnt be anything under 22 million dollars a year.   And if teams get into a bidding war he will be the highest paid edge rusher, 3-4 or 4-3 in the league, easy.

 

Its fun to talk about Ngaekou, Cooper, Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry.  But once the Bills pay White, Milano, Dawkins and Poyer those guys will not be in play, 82 Million goes away relatively quickly when you have to pay your own players, and the Bills have to, this year and for the next few years.

 

Bills fans better get more acquainted with the second and third level of free agents, because I would be amazed if Beane gave out a 20 million dollar contract to a guy who has never been in the building.

yeah, history says Beane and McDermott just dont' roll that way, chasing 1 or 2 shiny objects.   They will draft extremely well and pay their own guys.   FAs will come, but they will be the 2nd tier guys unless they need to replace their own guys.   thats the way it has to be in WNY.   Guys like it once they get there, most just don't want to go there.  outside opportunities in media and ads don't exist, etc.  area has a crappy rep., etc.

So you end up having to draft extremely efficiently and well, build a great locker room and training environment, then sign your own guys who by the end of their rookie deal want to be there.   just my view.

[DCbillsfan]

7 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I mean, I don't hate your strategy of retaining Shaq and drafting a DE early and that's a likely path. BUT, they're paying Star 10 mil a year. I'll leave the "value" of that contract alone, but he has shown he'll spend money under certain circumstances.

 

Building through the draft does not preclude a team from making some necessary FA'cy plays.

 

And FWIW, they are going to have to pay Shaq in the 12 mil range(guesstimate). So they're going to have to drop big money just to retain Shaq.

We're in agreement.  My idea of a big contract is the 5 year deals at $20M per year types.  Along the lines of Mario Williams and Marcel Dareus.  I don't think Beane goes there. 

 

Star's contract and even Morse's are pretty good sized contracts but were done out of necessity imo.  The Bills couldn't wait for a draft pick to develop into a starter.  I believe this is why they pay Shaq even at $12 M per year.  Should be a very interesting off-season for the Bills.

[The Jokeman]

17 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I would be guessing Green signs a 1 yr deal around $13M

Green could be looking to sign his final contract so he might want to get more than 1 year. 

[ALF]

Market Value          Shaq Lawson      That looks like a fair deal 
4 yrs, $30,749,235
Avg. Salary: $7,687,309
NFL Rank: 221
DE Rank: 21

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/shaq-lawson-18967/market-value/

[The Jokeman]

2 minutes ago, ALF said:

Market Value          Shaq Lawson      That looks like a fair deal 
4 yrs, $30,749,235
Avg. Salary: $7,687,309
NFL Rank: 221
DE Rank: 21

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/shaq-lawson-18967/market-value/

It's about what we're paying Murphy, I'd be okay giving Shaq the same and keeping both. 

[SoCal Deek]

I think the Bills will look just below the flashy names that everyone knows and find those young and eager second string players from other rosters that for whatever reason we’re not able to get on the field. That seems to fit their approach closer than an AJ Green.

[Seoulofstone]

14 hours ago, ngbills said:

For those saying we either dont want to or wont be able to sign big name talent. Do you think this roster as constructed is already good enough? Just need the guys we have to get better? Is that the approach. Allen gets better and only needs Knox/Kroft, Brown, Beasley and whatever other WR we keep. The OL as constructed is good enough? On Defense, we can lose Phillips, Shaq, Lorax and just plug in some cheap names and maintain the level of play. Oliver gets better and healthy H Phil help the DL. 

 

For me its hard to see that team ever being more than a occasional playoff team. 7-9 one year and 10-6 another. Then Allen gets his new contract and we start have to cut back the talent level even more. Sounds like a losing proposition. 

 

I prefer you have your centerpieces and bring in big level talent as needed. Rotate out some of the peripheral pieces as needed to make it work. You dont need a roster distribution that has very few at the top a ton in the middle and some at the bottom. Cut out out the middle and pad the top and bottom. Bottom either rises to top and is gone. They dont graduate to the middle. 

 

 

 Splash signings are exciting for fans but they frequently don't work. Look at the 3 big receiver moves last year- Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, Odell Beckham. It's interesting to pull up a top free agents list from the past year and consider how many of them really had impactful years;

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001018706/article/2019-nfl-free-agency-updated-top-101-nfl-free-agents

 

From this list dated March the top 10; Leveon Bell, Earl Thomas, Trey Flowers, Nick Foles,  Landon Collins, Anthony Barr, CJ Mosley, Justin Houston, KJ Wright, Sheldon Richardson.

 

My point is that just trotting out the names of the highest priced and most sought after free agents isn't some kind of masterful plan that nobody else has thought of. This same conversations are being had on every fan forum. They should absolutely enquire- that's fine but most of these guys carry albatross contracts. Fans rarely consider the knock on effects of these guys getting injured or being bad scheme fits.

 

 So sure, try to sign Ngakoue, but don't get into a bidding war with a blank check mentality. Don't be down on guys because they're second tier. Shaquil Barrett was the best FA signing from the past year.

 

  

 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Seoulofstone

[Seoulofstone]

16 hours ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

I truly think a player to watch is Zack Baun. They call him Zack Sack, dude is 6’2” 240. I think an NFL club can easily get him closer to 250. Dude is quick off the ball, hard to block and is slippery. Wisconsin played him all over the field. Can drop back and stunt from a stand up edge rusher. 12.5 sacks senior year. Smart dude.

 

I get it, everyone wants a WR. This FO has made it clear they don’t believe in a true #1 WR is necessary in this league to be successful, they’ve said it. But also this defense is the heart and sole of the organization. Losing Lorax is a big deal. He was a more dynamic player then most give him credit for. The guy would line up over the OG and rush. The right LBs and a heavy DL rotation is what makes this defense work. Vosean Joseph is not Lorax replacement, won’t happen. Unless they just stop running most to all packages Lorax ran. OLB/Edge type players are not deep in this draft, especially ones who are good in pass coverage. 
Zack Baun is that guy. He’s gonna run a 4.6 40 yard dash, be one of the quicker edge type guys and he will move up the boards. He’s already being talked about as a 25-32 late round 1 guy.

 

Baun reminds me of a poor mans Von Miller but better than Miller in the pass game.

 

Bills grab a legit WR at 54, maybe sneak up a couple spots (Ford) type move. Grab a CB in round 3.

 

People should really start watching, keeping their eye on Zack Baun. 

 

Im all in on Baun.  Edmunds, Milano and Baun as our LB Corp would be amazing. Grab a guy like Yannick Ngakoue. Scary.
 

Id watch his highlights before replying. Dude flies around and makes plays. Of this style play, he’s by far the best in this draft. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Same school as TJ Watt. The guys at TDN love him but like him as OLB in 3-4. I read a few reports about him struggling with strength and leverage rushing the passer at the senior bowl. I would love him in the third but I think he might be a bit of a reach in the first 2 rounds.

[Estro]

I think I may be in the minority here, but I see absolutely no reason to give Tre White an extension this offseason.  The Bills have him under contract for:

 

2020: $1.8M

2021: about $10M (once 5th yr option exercised)

2022: about $17M (estimated CB franchise tag)

 

That's a hell of a value and the Bills have the leverage.  The time for an extension to be done with White would be after the '21 season or at the very earliest during the '21 season if you wanted to roll some of the signing bonus $ into that season for cap purposes.  

 

Matt Milano, on the other hand, will likely be extended this offseason or during the season.  And expect Milano to get Kwon Alexander/Shaq Thompson type money which is going to be a lot more than most Bills fans probably anticipate.....about $12.5M - $14M per yr.

[Mickey]

Seems that if there was ever a year not to gamble on an injured, aging veteran receiver it is this year, with the best WR draft in years just a few months away. Whatever happened to the accepted wisdom of "building through the draft" and "keeping your players"? I'd rather use that money to keep Lawson and/or Phillips. Isn't signing a guy like Green the exact kind of "irresponsible decision making" that McDermott loathes? 

 

The real argument for Green is not how much he costs but what are the facts about his injury? Is he battle ready or is he not? How much mileage is left? Is he the AJ Green of 2 or 3 years ago and does he have 3-4 years left in the tank? Or, is he the broken down vet that missed 29 games over the last 4 years?

[Seoulofstone]

19 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Seems that if there was ever a year not to gamble on an injured, aging veteran receiver it is this year, with the best WR draft in years just a few months away. Whatever happened to the accepted wisdom of "building through the draft" and "keeping your players"? I'd rather use that money to keep Lawson and/or Phillips. Isn't signing a guy like Green the exact kind of "irresponsible decision making" that McDermott loathes? 

 

The real argument for Green is not how much he costs but what are the facts about his injury? Is he battle ready or is he not? How much mileage is left? Is he the AJ Green of 2 or 3 years ago and does he have 3-4 years left in the tank? Or, is he the broken down vet that missed 29 games over the last 4 years?

 

Absolutely. AJ Green should come with a caveat.  Any contract should protect the buying team from his injury risk (short term, frontloaded, incentive based). I don't blame him for declaring that he will be upset if the Bengals franchise tag him. Obviously he wants a longer term commitment but he's a huge risk/reward guy in a WR draft. I think he will struggle to get what he wants.

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Green could be looking to sign his final contract so he might want to get more than 1 year. 

No doubt he might want more, but given his injury history, any multi year deal he is offered will likely have no guaranteed money beyond the first year, so he may as well roll the dice on a one year deal and hope for an injury free year and decent numbers in 2020. to push up gis value in 2021..

[Magox]

19 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/studs-and-duds-market-value-buys-in-2020-nfl-free-agency

 

Notables - I would do BOTH these at these assigned values

 

A.J. GREEN, WR

Projected average per year salary: $9.1 million

 

YANNICK NGAKOUE, DE
Projected average per year salary: $17.1 million

 

 

I think this is completely doable and I believe it is being considered by the Bills.   

 

AJ Green would be a very good risk at around that price level, if healthy he could be a premier WR, a WR that could be hugely beneficial to Josh Allen and the offense.   If you go this route it wouldn't preclude the Bills from drafting a WR early on.  WR's usually take a little time before they become as efficient as they could be and having AJ Green, Beasley and Brown would all be receivers that would be beneficial to the development of any rookie WR's you bring on to the team.  I think Green and drafting a WR in the first two rounds is exactly what they should do and instantly the WR spot becomes a point of strength to the team and would enhance Allen's development and in my view almost surely guarantee a better product on the field.

 

Ngakoue is exactly the type of splash signing I think the Bills are going to make.  Reading in between the lines over the past year or so, I think its evident that the Bills want another big time pass rusher and Ngakoue fits the bill.    He is a really good edge rusher, nonstop motor and has a penchant for causing turnovers.   I think he is the missing piece to this defense to truly becoming the best in the NFL.  

 

I think the Bills are looking at a few scenarios this off season, one being getting a vet WR that would instantly be in the top 3 WR's on the team with adding another through the draft.  And getting a high quality pass rusher through FA.   

 

Another route would be to get a good pass rusher through the draft and going after a high end Tackle in FA.  I don't think they will try to address a quality Vet WR, a high end Tackle and Pass rusher through FA.  I  think most likely its either a high end Tackle or Pass rusher via FA.

[SoTier]

19 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Sign AJ Green to a 2 year 18M deal

Draft 2 WRs

 

 

 

If this draft is as deep in WRs as the draftniks claim, then this is the way to go.  A vet like Green would give Allen an instant target and give time for the rookies to develop.

 

IMO, a history of concussions or chronic knee issues would be bigger detriments to signing a player than having an ankle injury. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by SoTier

[noacls]

1 hour ago, Estro said:

I think I may be in the minority here, but I see absolutely no reason to give Tre White an extension this offseason.  The Bills have him under contract for:

 

2020: $1.8M

2021: about $10M (once 5th yr option exercised)

2022: about $17M (estimated CB franchise tag)

 

That's a hell of a value and the Bills have the leverage.  The time for an extension to be done with White would be after the '21 season or at the very earliest during the '21 season if you wanted to roll some of the signing bonus $ into that season for cap purposes.  

 

Matt Milano, on the other hand, will likely be extended this offseason or during the season.  And expect Milano to get Kwon Alexander/Shaq Thompson type money which is going to be a lot more than most Bills fans probably anticipate.....about $12.5M - $14M per yr.

If Milano thinks he is getting that, BYE. Milano gets pushed around and cant tackle. He is an average to slightly above average linebacker. Alexander and Thompson are much better LB's than Milano. 

[DCbillsfan]

18 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

The cap goes up yes, but the inflation of contracts go up to match the rising cap.  If you think they can easily extend White, Dawkins, Milano and Poyer then have the money to bring back a guy like Lawson and then still have cap to go get one of two twenty million dollar a year guys like Cooper or Ngaekou and still have cap to offer Hooper or Henry Id say you play too much Madden or grossly underestimate what they are going to have to pay their own players.   White alone probably gets an average of 17 million a year.  Then Dawkins, Milano and Shaq will all be between 9 and 12.5 a year.    

A few weeks ago, WGR had the Spotrac main guy (forget his name) on for a segment.  Howard Simon specifically asked about White, Dawkins, and Milano extensions costs.  He said $18M, $14M, and $13M per year were his estimates.  The $90M goes fast if you're not careful.  Beane knows he's already looking at one contract worth $90 - $100M contract for Tre White in the next year or so.

[Da webster guy]

20 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Sign AJ Green to a 2 year 18M deal

Draft 2 WRs

 

 

Exactly.

Beane loves the short deals anyway vs the log term cap killers that end up w dead money. 

AJ could be used like a veteran.  Reasonable snap count, avoid the middle stuff and the killer hits.

 

I like Dante Fowler over Yannick but either way lets get one of em.  Shaq and Phillips are goners I think.

[thenorthremembers]

43 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

A few weeks ago, WGR had the Spotrac main guy (forget his name) on for a segment.  Howard Simon specifically asked about White, Dawkins, and Milano extensions costs.  He said $18M, $14M, and $13M per year were his estimates.  The $90M goes fast if you're not careful.  Beane knows he's already looking at one contract worth $90 - $100M contract for Tre White in the next year or so.

I think the spotrac guy is dead one.   I know people here think you can just move money around, and that works for a few years, but eventually it catches up with you.  I dont think thats how Beane wants to do business.