The Draft Network Studs and Duds with Market Value some of the UFAs

[hjnick]

8 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Why do so many people say we will not sign anyone but 2-3rd tier free agents? What is the point of all this cap space if we use it on just our own plus some lower level free agents. This roster has a ton of good 2-3rd level guys. If we have $90M in cap and our QB is on his rookie contract we better sign a couple top level guys. That is what this team needs to get over the hump. 

1 Tier, 2nd Tier, 3rd Tier, someone off the street.... I don't care what their tier is.  If Beane thinks the guy can help out the team and improve us, I'm all for it.  Look at the OLine upgrade last offseason.  Most of the guys are not top Tier 1 guys.  Most are good players that we got on good deals.

 

We just need to keep improving our overall talent and adding some top tier 1 talent and we will be looking really good.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Sign AJ Green to a 2 year 18M deal

Draft 2 WRs

 

 

It’s definitely a risk, but I’d be for this as long as the guarantee was only around $9M so it could effectively be a 1 year deal if needed.

 

Also I’d be happy to back up the Brinks truck for Yannick.

[thenorthremembers]

26 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

they can sign anyone they want. Cap is not an issue never is an issue so they can easily sign Him, Hooper, Cooper if they really wanted too. 
 

the reality is the Cap GOES UP on AVG 10M every year. Yeah there is room to do what they want 

 

also be innovative (other owners will be pissed) but tell UFA you will put a no Franchise Tag clause for a smaller AVV essentially the player buying their UFA 

The cap goes up yes, but the inflation of contracts go up to match the rising cap.  If you think they can easily extend White, Dawkins, Milano and Poyer then have the money to bring back a guy like Lawson and then still have cap to go get one of two twenty million dollar a year guys like Cooper or Ngaekou and still have cap to offer Hooper or Henry Id say you play too much Madden or grossly underestimate what they are going to have to pay their own players.   White alone probably gets an average of 17 million a year.  Then Dawkins, Milano and Shaq will all be between 9 and 12.5 a year.    

[MAJBobby]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

It’s definitely a risk, but I’d be for this as long as the guarantee was only around $9M so it could effectively be a 1 year deal if needed.

 

Also I’d be happy to back up the Brinks truck for Yannick.

yeah that is what I am thinking 1st year fully guaranteed (the AAV on that year might be 13M) and the second year maybe a Club Option. Only way you are gonna get him at the 9M AAV is multiple years 

2 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

The cap goes up yes, but the inflation of contracts go up to match the rising cap.  If you think they can easily extend White, Dawkins, Milano and Poyer then have the money to bring back a guy like Lawson and then still have cap to go get one of two twenty million dollar a year guys like Cooper or Ngaekou and still have cap to offer Hooper or Henry Id say you play too much Madden or grossly underestimate what they are going to have to pay their own players.   White alone probably gets an average of 17 million a year.  Then Dawkins, Milano and Shaq will all be between 9 and 12.5 a year.    

yes they can sign whoever they want this offseason and still work their roster build. 
 

sign Yannick

Sign Henry

Sign Shaq

 

cut Murphy (there is Shaw’s Contract)

Cut Kroft and Smith (there is Henry’s contact)

 

and guess what that is still 70M in 2020 space 

[CEN-CAL17]

I truly think a player to watch is Zack Baun. They call him Zack Sack, dude is 6’2” 240. I think an NFL club can easily get him closer to 250. Dude is quick off the ball, hard to block and is slippery. Wisconsin played him all over the field. Can drop back and stunt from a stand up edge rusher. 12.5 sacks senior year. Smart dude.

 

I get it, everyone wants a WR. This FO has made it clear they don’t believe in a true #1 WR is necessary in this league to be successful, they’ve said it. But also this defense is the heart and sole of the organization. Losing Lorax is a big deal. He was a more dynamic player then most give him credit for. The guy would line up over the OG and rush. The right LBs and a heavy DL rotation is what makes this defense work. Vosean Joseph is not Lorax replacement, won’t happen. Unless they just stop running most to all packages Lorax ran. OLB/Edge type players are not deep in this draft, especially ones who are good in pass coverage. 
Zack Baun is that guy. He’s gonna run a 4.6 40 yard dash, be one of the quicker edge type guys and he will move up the boards. He’s already being talked about as a 25-32 late round 1 guy.

 

Baun reminds me of a poor mans Von Miller but better than Miller in the pass game.

 

Bills grab a legit WR at 54, maybe sneak up a couple spots (Ford) type move. Grab a CB in round 3.

 

People should really start watching, keeping their eye on Zack Baun. 

 

Im all in on Baun.  Edmunds, Milano and Baun as our LB Corp would be amazing. Grab a guy like Yannick Ngakoue. Scary.
 

Id watch his highlights before replying. Dude flies around and makes plays. Of this style play, he’s by far the best in this draft. 

 

 

 

 

 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, CEN-CAL17 said:

I truly think a player to watch is Zack Baun. They call him Zack Sack, dude is 6’2” 240. I think an NFL club can easily get him closer to 250. Dude is quick off the ball, hard to block and is slippery. Wisconsin played him all over the field. Can drop back and stunt from a stand up edge rusher. 12.5 sacks senior year. Smart dude.

 

I get it, everyone wants a WR. This FO has made it clear they don’t believe in a true #1 WR is necessary in this league to be successful, they’ve said it. But also this defense is the heart and sole of the organization. Losing Lorax is a big deal. He was a more dynamic player then most give him credit for. The guy would line up over the OG and rush. The right LBs and a heavy DL rotation is what makes this defense work. Vosean Joseph is not Lorax replacement, won’t happen. Unless they just stop running most to all packages Lorax ran. OLB/Edge type players are not deep in this draft, especially ones who are good in pass coverage. 
Zack Baun is that guy. He’s gonna run a 4.6 40 yard dash, be one of the quicker edge type guys and he will move up the boards. He’s already being talked about as a 25-32 late round 1 guy.

 

Baun reminds me of a poor mans Von Miller but better than Miller in the pass game.

 

Bills grab a legit WR at 54, maybe sneak up a couple spots (Ford) type move. Grab a CB in round 3.

 

People should really start watching, keeping their eye on Zack Baun. 

 

Im all in on Baun.  Edmunds, Milano and Baun as our LB Corp would be amazing. Grab a guy like Yannick Ngakoue. Scary.
 

Id watch his highlights before replying. Dude flies around and makes plays. Of this style play, he’s by far the best in this draft. 

 

 

 

 

 

losing Lorax hurts the ST unit more than it does Defense. 
 

Bills where in nickle over 60% of the time. Higher clip than Most teams. 
 

they can fill his spot with a normal LBer. 
 

now as just an DE ok. 
 

I like what Lorax stood for but in terms of on the field based on last year will not be hard to replace. 

[thenorthremembers]

23 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

yeah that is what I am thinking 1st year fully guaranteed (the AAV on that year might be 13M) and the second year maybe a Club Option. Only way you are gonna get him at the 9M AAV is multiple years 

yes they can sign whoever they want this offseason and still work their roster build. 
 

sign Yannick

Sign Henry

Sign Shaq

 

cut Murphy (there is Shaw’s Contract)

Cut Kroft and Smith (there is Henry’s contact)

 

and guess what that is still 70M in 2020 space 

 

I guarantee after extending Dawkins, Milano, Poyer, and White you will have eaten up somewhere between 45 and 55 million of that 90 million dollar cap.   Especially, if they add the average a year salary onto what those players are already supposed to make in 2020 to front load and save money in subsequent years.  

 

Resign Shaq, and you have spent 55-65 million in just resigning your own guys.    I dont expect them to spend to the cap, I expect them to keep a 10-15 Million dollar pool to roll over, because next year they will need to look into extending other players, and making sure the have the long term money to pay Allen and Edmunds.

 

We will have to agree to disagree, but I think fans here better get used to names like Daryl Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Isaiah Crowell, DeAndre Washington, Kyle Love, and Corey Liuget  rather than Ngaekou, Cooper, and Henry.

 

They want to draft and develop the guys they pay, last year was different because they were building a core after coming back from burning the roster to the ground.

Edited January 27, 2020 by thenorthremembers

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

I guarantee after extending Dawkins, Milano, Poyer, and White you will have eaten up somewhere between 45 and 55 million of that 90 million dollar cap.   Especially, if they add the average a year salary onto what those players are already supposed to make in 2020 to front load and save money in subsequent years.  

 

Resign Shaq, and you have spent 55-65 million in just resigning your own guys. 

 

We will have to agree to disagree, but I think fans here better get used to names like Daryl Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Isaiah Crowell, DeAndre Washington, Kyle Love, and Corey Liuget  rather than Ngaekou, Cooper, and Henry.

 

They want to draft and develop the guys they pay, last year was different because they were building a core after coming back from burning the roster to the ground.   I dont expect them to be big players in free agency.  

why am I extending them?  Ooo I am not I don’t need to right now. 
 

and I am NOT going to resign Poyer he is going to want to be in the 10+M safety club. And a scheme that is so safety Friendly I am not paying two safeties and I drafted a player and kept him on the roster the entire season for a reason. I bet it isn’t to replace Hyde. 
 

White has 2 more years 

 

no reason to rush their re-signings. 
 

last year was different? But what about the first year giving 10M to Star?  
 

what about the wanting to trade for AB or OBJ. Eventually people will start taking GM lip service as just that

Edited January 27, 2020 by MAJBobby

[thenorthremembers]

6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

why am I extending them?  Ooo I am not I don’t need to right now. 
 

and I am NOT going to resign Poyer he is going to want to be in the 10+M safety club. And a scheme that is so safety Friendly I am not paying two safeties and I drafted a player and kept him on the roster the entire season for a reason. I bet it isn’t to replace Hyde. 
 

White has 2 more years 

 

no reason to rush their re-signings. 

They are resigning them because they have said they want to set an example by paying guys who have been exemplary in the building and on the field.    You may not want to pay Poyer that money, but I feel very strongly he is going to get it.     On Dawkins, and Milano you dont wait their contracts expire to pay them.  You show you're a good organization by paying those players, the year leading up to guys contracts expiring.

 

I dont disagree on White, but I think they will pay him the contract he has earned rather than letting him play for 6 million this year.  

 

Like I said, I could very well be wrong.   I just dont see them paying two guys who have never been in the building 20 million dollars a year, when they have Captains and Leaders on the team making anywhere from 800k-1.3 million dollars a year in the case of Milano and Dawkins.

24 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

losing Lorax hurts the ST unit more than it does Defense. 
 

Bills where in nickle over 60% of the time. Higher clip than Most teams. 
 

they can fill his spot with a normal LBer. 
 

now as just an DE ok. 
 

I like what Lorax stood for but in terms of on the field based on last year will not be hard to replace. 

This we can agree on.  Go get someone like Kevin Pierre-Louis or David Mayo.  

Edited January 27, 2020 by thenorthremembers

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, thenorthremembers said:

They are resigning them because they have said they want to set an example by paying guys who have been exemplary in the building and on the field.    You may not want to pay Poyer that money, but I feel very strongly he is going to get it.     On Dawkins, and Milano you dont wait until the year guys are set to become free agents to pay them.  You show you're a good organization by paying those players, the year leading up to guys contracts expiring.

 

I dont disagree on White, but I think they will pay him the contract he has earned rather than letting him play for 6 million this year.  

 

Like I said, I could very well be wrong.   I just dont see them paying two guys who have never been in the building 20 million dollars a year, when they have Captains and Leaders on the team making anywhere from 800k-1.3 million dollars a year in the case of Milano and Dawkins.

All those happen at camp Once the UFA plan and the Draft is complete if there is space. And again they can sign ANYONE they want and still do what they will with re-signings. Cap is easily manipulated when you have an owner flush with cash. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Not to dwell on cap space but you can release Murphy and Kroft and save almost $14M. There is money to be saved on Long as well as DiMarco. The Bills aren’t tied to any really bad contracts (outside of Star). They have a lot of flexibility at this point. 

[MDH]

2 hours ago, Bleedbuffaloblue said:

Don’t like the idea of taking Green. A little too late in his career and far too often injured. This is the draft to get multiple WR’s if there ever was one.

 

Not just his injury history but the age of the Bills' WR room. They need to get younger there and start staggering when guys need to be replaced. They signed FAs in the WR last year now it's time for a draft pick or two.

47 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

and I am NOT going to resign Poyer he is going to want to be in the 10+M safety club. And a scheme that is so safety Friendly I am not paying two safeties and I drafted a player and kept him on the roster the entire season for a reason. I bet it isn’t to replace Hyde. 
 

 

 

What makes the safties so valuable in this scheme is how well they know it and each other. They can play each others positions and take each others responsibilities on the fly. They can disguise a man look when it's still a zone look because they wordlessly take on the others responsibilities. This confuses the hell out of opposing QBs. 

 

The value of Hyde and Poyer isn't in how great they are as individuals but in how well they work together. You're kidding yourself if you think someone is going to step in to one of their spots without a significant immediate fall off. There is a reason the Bills had so few blown coverages last year and consistently lead the league in fewest big passing plays against.

 

[ngbills]

For those saying we either dont want to or wont be able to sign big name talent. Do you think this roster as constructed is already good enough? Just need the guys we have to get better? Is that the approach. Allen gets better and only needs Knox/Kroft, Brown, Beasley and whatever other WR we keep. The OL as constructed is good enough? On Defense, we can lose Phillips, Shaq, Lorax and just plug in some cheap names and maintain the level of play. Oliver gets better and healthy H Phil help the DL. 

 

For me its hard to see that team ever being more than a occasional playoff team. 7-9 one year and 10-6 another. Then Allen gets his new contract and we start have to cut back the talent level even more. Sounds like a losing proposition. 

 

I prefer you have your centerpieces and bring in big level talent as needed. Rotate out some of the peripheral pieces as needed to make it work. You dont need a roster distribution that has very few at the top a ton in the middle and some at the bottom. Cut out out the middle and pad the top and bottom. Bottom either rises to top and is gone. They dont graduate to the middle. 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, MDH said:

 

Not just his injury history but the age of the Bills' WR room. They need to get younger there and start staggering when guys need to be replaced. They signed FAs in the WR last year now it's time for a draft pick or two.

 

What makes the safties so valuable in this scheme is how well they know it and each other. They can play each others positions and take each others responsibilities on the fly. They can disguise a man look when it's still a zone look because they wordlessly take on the others responsibilities. This confuses the hell out of opposing QBs. 

 

The value of Hyde and Poyer isn't in how great they are as individuals but in how well they work together. You're kidding yourself if you think someone is going to step in to one of their spots without a significant immediate fall off. There is a reason the Bills had so few blown coverages last year and consistently lead the league in fewest big passing plays against.

 

Pick on you are not paying 2 safeties 10M in a predominately cover 4 zone coverage scheme 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I just never understand the mindset that elite talent somehow isn’t required to be a true championship contender. It’s almost as if some Bills fans think we don’t deserve top tier talent and should somehow cobble together a roster with journeyman types and hope we get very lucky with entry level contracts 

[machine gun kelly]

They may pick one first level free agent like last year with Morse, but it won’t be a pass rusher.  They are just too expensive.  Hooper I can see and as the Ravens had 3 stud TE’s, I can see us being more open to 13 personnel.  We have two good ones and Kroft and Smith should go along with Murphy.

 

There was one person giving all 9 picks.  How much do you want to bet at best we draft 5-6, and move up for studs.  That’s what I would do.  

[LSHMEAB]

5 hours ago, DCbillsfan said:

The biggest free agent signing will be re-signing Shaq imo.  He won't cost anything near Ngouke and will let the Bills extend some of their own.

Well, he isn't exactly "their own" considering he was a holdover from the previous regime.

 

On top of that, Shaq is going to get A LOT more than people seem to believe. If you simply look at his numbers, he appears to be a budding star. I could go into detail about how his stats are skewed, but there will be a team that views him as something he's not; a potential game changing stud. He is not.

 

Yannick, on the other hand, is a major DISRUPTOR, something the Bills defense desperately needs. I would guess that the difference in price will be in the 5 mil range. Considering the cap isn't really an issue and the Bills only real NEED defensively is a stud pass rusher, I'd gladly pay the difference assuming we have a shot at Ngouke.

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Well, he isn't exactly "their own" considering he was a holdover from the previous regime.

 

On top of that, Shaq is going to get A LOT more than people seem to believe. If you simply look at his numbers, he appears to be a budding star. I could go into detail about how his stats are skewed, but there will be a team that views him as something he's not; a potential game changing stud. He is not.

 

Yannick, on the other hand, is a major DISRUPTOR, something the Bills defense desperately needs. I would guess that the difference in price will be in the 5 mil range. Considering the cap isn't really an issue and the Bills only real NEED defensively is a stud pass rusher, I'd gladly pay the difference assuming we have a shot at Ngouke.

I agree that Shaq is not a stud and the Bills defense needs a disruptor.  I think Shaq still has room to grow whereas Murphy's game won't grow.  If Bills get their way, I think they re-sign Shaq and draft a DE early and maybe even in the first round.  (Get a WR in 2nd round) They get younger and better at DE and possibly move on from Murphy.  I just don't see Beane dropping money on a big free agent signing even though they have the cap space.

[LSHMEAB]

14 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

I agree that Shaq is not a stud and the Bills defense needs a disruptor.  I think Shaq still has room to grow whereas Murphy's game won't grow.  If Bills get their way, I think they re-sign Shaq and draft a DE early and maybe even in the first round.  (Get a WR in 2nd round) They get younger and better at DE and possibly move on from Murphy.  I just don't see Beane dropping money on a big free agent signing even though they have the cap space.

I mean, I don't hate your strategy of retaining Shaq and drafting a DE early and that's a likely path. BUT, they're paying Star 10 mil a year. I'll leave the "value" of that contract alone, but he has shown he'll spend money under certain circumstances.

 

Building through the draft does not preclude a team from making some necessary FA'cy plays.

 

And FWIW, they are going to have to pay Shaq in the 12 mil range(guesstimate). So they're going to have to drop big money just to retain Shaq.

Edited January 28, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[ny33]

10 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

We have 2 legit NFL ones right now.

AJ Green adds 3.

 

My 1st round WR adds 4

 

My Later WR makes it maybe 5 or to the PS if he cannot beat out what is on the roster

 

So 6 like ALWAYS

 

Need 90 players to get to camp

I don’t understand why so many people say we have “2 legit NFL ones right now.” There’s obviously a lot of value in having a deep range of threats at WR (Kansas City is the prime example of how having 4+ speed/skilll guys, including elite and near-elite starters in Hill and Watkins, is more valuable than a “prototype” WR#1 like Thomas/Hopkins alone, especially with a running threat like Mahomes). 

 

McKenzie and Williams are better than most teams’ 4th/5th options, and Foster was very, very good over six games last year (decent sample size), and the coaches clearly believe that he has a chance to get back to that level.

 

We obviously need a better starter across from Brown, but I think we have an above-average group if Beane finds a starting-caliber outside receiver. McKenzie isn’t good enough for that role, but we are in pretty good shape if the young guys with upside/versatility are our 4th/5th/6th options at the position.  I’m optimistic that they’ll prioritize the position after fielding one of the worst WR corps ever last year and doing Allen no favors, and Brown is a starter on any team/a coup at his price, while Beasley is a solid third option on pretty much every roster.

 

This roster is solid from the inside out, and we will be a real threat with even a solid outside starter and another RB or two, which should be easy to address.