GunnerBill Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 I think highly unlikely now the Shenault goes in the first. I was never as high on him as a lot of folks here seemed to be anyway - he was always a mid 2nd for me. But he hurt himself with the decision to run his 40 when not healthy and the injury (on the back of other injury niggles) is a concern.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: What’s the legend for the colors? You'd have to ask Astro (Dean). Try Twitter @TCBILLS_Astro
DCOrange Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) 18 hours ago, NewEra said: Looking less and less like he’s going to be there for us to take at 22 imo Dean said that Jefferson has one of the worst catch ratios? I thought I had read he had the best by far? Or is that contested passes? I thought Jefferson’s hands were money Jefferson's contested catch % this past season was the highest in the entire draft class, going 12/13. If we focus on just the Day 1-2 WRs (rough list of them), their true catch rates last year were (making the calculation based on PFF's drop numbers here): Ruggs: 96.0% Lamb: 93.0% Jefferson: 92.0% Shenault: 91.5% Jeudy: 91.3% Pittman: 90.9% Claypool: 90.5% Aiyuk: 88.8% Mims: 87.7% Higgins: 84.6% Reagor: 79.9% Hamler: 78.9% Peoples-Jones: 78.4% Of course this can be greatly influenced by how deep the targets are; deeper targets are generally more difficult to catch, and Jefferson's average depth of target was the lowest among those players (the only player in single digits). Basically all the players with high average depth of targets are at the bottom of the list in terms of true catch % and vice versa. The exceptions are Lamb (high in both categories), Aiyuk (low in both categories), and Ruggs (average ADoT and the highest true catch %) Edited March 5, 2020 by DCOrange 1
ghostwriter Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 2:38 PM, transplantbillsfan said: Just based off the very little I know about college football, I want Shenault. And I see he's apparently the only guy out GM has gone to visit/watch 4 times on his own. I do think he’d be a great fit for us scheme wise. For me it comes down to Yetur Gross-Matos, AJ Epenesa or perhaps Laviska Shenault because he is a great fit for our offense.
Alphadawg7 Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 I’m starting to board the Justin Jefferson train personally based on who I expect to be available at 22. I don’t think he will last to our 2nd round pick after his combine personally. Then again I never thought Metcalf would drop out of the first round either last year, so you never know. Now that being said, I think it’s still more likely we do NOT go WR at 22. Beane has repeatedly stressed the incredible depth at WR and also said part of what they weigh when they pick is just that. Is there a guy at another position where they need help that has a big drop off later vs one that has a lot of depth. I think unless one of the top WRs he absolutely covets drops to within striking distance of our pick to where he can make a move to get ahead of Philly to grab, then he will more likely try and get one of the edge guys in the first. I won’t even be surprised if he trades up for one of those top edge guys or even someone like Simmons if they start to slide into a reachable range that won’t cost the farm.
DCOrange Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: I’m starting to board the Justin Jefferson train personally based on who I expect to be available at 22. I don’t think he will last to our 2nd round pick after his combine personally. Then again I never thought Metcalf would drop out of the first round either last year, so you never know. Now that being said, I think it’s still more likely we do NOT go WR at 22. Beane has repeatedly stressed the incredible depth at WR and also said part of what they weigh when they pick is just that. Is there a guy at another position where they need help that has a big drop off later vs one that has a lot of depth. I think unless one of the top WRs he absolutely covets drops to within striking distance of our pick to where he can make a move to get ahead of Philly to grab, then he will more likely try and get one of the edge guys in the first. I won’t even be surprised if he trades up for one of those top edge guys or even someone like Simmons if they start to slide into a reachable range that won’t cost the farm. I like Jefferson a lot, but if there's a concern with him, IMO it's that he might ultimately settle in as just being a big slot WR which probably wouldn't be good value in the 1st round. He has all the physical tools to transition into being a wideout, but he hasn't really shown that much on film yet and that always makes me a little nervous when we're talking about a 1st round pick. I think he's worth considering for sure though. As for other positions, the main needs IMO are (not necessarily in order): WR Edge O-Line (which spot depends on what they want to do with Ford/Spain) CB2 Safety Rotational DT Backup RB and or 3rd down back LB (though they'll probably just re-sign Milano and basically check this box off) My guess is that we address edge prior to the draft. I'm also not particularly high on any of the prospects after Chase Young, but some believe there will be worthy choices at 22. There likely won't be O-Line guys worth taking where we are. CB and safety are both solid options IMO. I think there will probably be 1 or 2 corners that you can justify at #22 and probably 2 or 3 safeties. The other 3 needs aren't important enough IMO to address in the 1st round unless they plan to let Milano walk. So ultimately, my guess is WR, DB, or a disappointing edge pick.
ny33 Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, DCOrange said: I like Jefferson a lot, but if there's a concern with him, IMO it's that he might ultimately settle in as just being a big slot WR which probably wouldn't be good value in the 1st round. He has all the physical tools to transition into being a wideout, but he hasn't really shown that much on film yet and that always makes me a little nervous when we're talking about a 1st round pick. I think he's worth considering for sure though. As for other positions, the main needs IMO are (not necessarily in order): WR Edge O-Line (which spot depends on what they want to do with Ford/Spain) CB2 Safety Rotational DT Backup RB and or 3rd down back LB (though they'll probably just re-sign Milano and basically check this box off) My guess is that we address edge prior to the draft. I'm also not particularly high on any of the prospects after Chase Young, but some believe there will be worthy choices at 22. There likely won't be O-Line guys worth taking where we are. CB and safety are both solid options IMO. I think there will probably be 1 or 2 corners that you can justify at #22 and probably 2 or 3 safeties. The other 3 needs aren't important enough IMO to address in the 1st round unless they plan to let Milano walk. So ultimately, my guess is WR, DB, or a disappointing edge pick. I wonder if Josh Jones, Austin Jackson, and Ezra Cleveland are in play for Beane at 22. I wouldn’t hate grabbing a second-tier OT; I’m also very wary of the DEs who are likely to be available. Edited March 5, 2020 by ny33
DCOrange Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 42 minutes ago, ny33 said: I wonder if Josh Jones, Austin Jackson, and Ezra Cleveland are in play for Beane at 22. I wouldn’t hate grabbing a second-tier OT; I’m also very wary of the DEs who are likely to be available. I imagine Jones would be and I think that would be a good pick (if Beane is genuinely open to taking a tackle). The other two seem like reaches to me based solely on what I've read (haven't watched them at all).
The Firebaugh Kid Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 Admittedly I'm getting on the Antonio Gibson train at little late here... but sweet Geezus that kid is electric. Good to see him on the list. Beane loves versatility....
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