Coach Tuesday Posted April 15, 2005 Share Posted April 15, 2005 http://fantasyfootball.rotoworld.com/conte...t=NFL&column=27 1. San Francisco 49ers – Aaron Rodgers, QB, California The pick is down to Rodgers, Utah QB Alex Smith, and Michigan WR Braylon Edwards. The 49ers have huge needs at both positions, but with a rebuilding roster, they can afford to grab their franchise QB. They don’t need a huge impact player for 2005. If not for the “Curse” of Cal coach Jeff Tedford, this is an easy pick. Tedford’s protegees (Akili Smith, Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington, David Carr, and Kyle Boller) have a spotty record at best. But Rodgers is solid. He has the confidence necessary to lead a young team and a proven track record versus tough competition. While his arm isn’t dazzling, he can make all the throws. His downside is low. New coach Mike Nolan knows he can’t blow this pick. 2. Miami Dolphins – Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan In our opinion, this is the hardest pick of the draft to project. Miami’s roster screams running back here, probably Ronnie Brown. He’s the consensus among the draftniks. We have a strong suspicion, however, that coach Nick Saban doesn’t want a running back with the second pick of the draft. Peter King, among others, has voiced this belief recently. Coming from the Bill Belichick school of cap-onomics, Saban knows that huge signing bonuses for running backs equals poor value. With Ricky Williams possibly coming back, Miami can wait a round or trade for a veteran. The choice, then, is Braylon Edwards or Alex Smith. We bet they go with the sure thing. Marty Booker, take a seat. 3. Arizona Cardinals (from Cleveland) – Alex Smith, QB, Utah Cleveland will find a way to trade the #3 pick. Under this scenario, the Cardinals can trade tackle L.J. Shelton for Travis Henry or draft Cal’s J.J. Arrington, a Dennis Green favorite, in the second round. People forget what a huge need Arizona has at QB, and what Dennis Green is all about. A one-year deal for Kurt Warner and Josh McCown is no solution. Green loves Smith's upside and intelligence. They could wait to see if he drops to #8, but we project the Cardinals will trade up to get their man. 4. Chicago Bears – Ronnie Brown, Auburn RB Bears GM Jerry Angelo isn’t the type to move up in the draft. Usually, he does the opposite. While Braylon Edwards should be Chicago’s top target, we don’t think he’ll last until the fourth pick. That leaves Chicago to take Mike Williams or their running back of choice. Wideout is the greater need, but Chicago will have a hard time passing on Ronnie Brown for value. Incumbent Thomas Jones is inconsistent and doesn’t fit well into Chicago’s new offense. Brown is the best combination of speed and power of the big three running backs. 5. Tampa Bay Buccanneers – Cadillac Williams, Auburn RB This is the best match of team and need in the top five. Tampa Bay is desperate to improve their running game and should have options with the fifth pick. Jon Gruden coached Williams at the Senior Bowl, where he was the best player all week. The Bucs offense requires a multi-faceted back and Cadillac has all the skills. Mike Williams is a consideration, but he’s not the speed threat the Bucs need opposite Michael Clayton. 6. Tennessee Titans – Antrel Rolle, Miami CB Like the third pick, this selection will send tremors throughout the rest of the top ten. Tennessee has to draft a cornerback or wideout. They are thinner than Mariano Rivera’s hair at both spots. After losing Samari Rolle and Kevin Dyson, they are further from being competitive in the secondary. Their defense may have been the worst in the league to finish 2004. With the Colts as division rivals, the choice should be Rolle. He’s the most complete corner available. 7. Minnesota Vikings – Mike Williams, USC WR The Vikings are entering strange territory. An excellent offseason leaves the roster with few gaping holes and two first round picks. The Vikings have talent at wideout (Nate Burleson, Travis Taylor), but their only receiver with size (Marcus Robinson) is inconsistent at best. Mike Williams, who hasn’t played organized football in a season, can replace Randy Moss as a red zone hoss. His forty times are slow, but the kid is a football player, not a track star. This pick will make the Randy Moss trade look that much better. 8. Cleveland Browns (trade with Cardinals) – Shawn Merriman, Maryland OLB/DE If free agency was any indication, new Browns GM Phil Savage and coach Romeo Crennel should have an excellent draft. We project them moving down five spots and still getting their top defensive player. Merriman looks like a prototype 3-4 DE/OLB to us. Drafting him with the third pick is not out of the question. His stock is rising fast, which is unfortunate for Dallas because they would love to see him at #11. 9. Washington Redskins – Troy Williamson, South Carolina WR The Redskins could be in a tough spot with the ninth pick. They truly need a starting cornerback and wide receiver, but we believe there is a drop-off after Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, and Antrel Rolle. Adam “PacMan” Jones looks overhyped by most media outlets. Because Washington is so aggressive in player acquisition, a trade up is possible. Since they don’t have a second round pick, it could involve disgruntled wideout Rod Gardner. If the Redskins keep the pick, we bet they reach for the premier deep threat in this draft. Williamson is raw, but was held down by South Carolina’s offense. 10. Detroit Lions - Alex Barron, Florida State T Detroit should look at tackle or defensive end here. Barron easily has the biggest upside of the offensive linemen in this draft. He’s massive. His toughness wavered at times at Florida State, but he has the physical tools to be an NFL starter from day one. No tackle in this draft looks like a certain Pro Bowler, but Barron isn’t far off. In Detroit, he’d likely start on the right side, replacing Stockar McDougle. 11. Dallas Cowboys – David Pollack, Georgia DE With Anthony Henry signed, the Cowboys should grab a defensive end, linebacker, and wide receiver with their first three picks. Texas OLB Derrick Johnson is an option here, but coach Parcells likes his linebackers more stout at the point of attack. That’s fun to write. Erasmus James has better measurables, but has durability concerns and less experience. Pollack doesn’t look elite running a forty, but no end was more productive the last few seasons. His energy and instincts make him a Parcells guy. He could move to ILB like Tedy Bruschi, a plus if Dallas plays more 3-4 defense this season. 12. San Diego Chargers – Adam (PacMan) Jones, West Virginia CB The Chargers will be doing cartwheels if the number two cornerback of the draft falls to them here. Their inability to stop the deep pass was their biggest weakness in ’04. Jones is not as physical as Antrel Rolle, but he’ll be an immediate starter and above average corner. His return ability, where he’d help replace Tim Dwight, is also a big plus for the Chargers. 13. Houston Texans – Mark Clayton, Oklahoma WR This pick may reflect our preference rather than Houston’s. After recently re-signing Corey Bradford to a one-year deal, drafting a first round wideout is less likely. Troy State’s DeMarcus Ware or the best available tackle are possibilities. We just don’t understand how Houston plans to take a step forward offensively with Jabar Gaffney and Bradford as their 2nd and 3rd receivers. With their jobs on the line, GM Charlie Casserly and coach Dom Capers should look for a ready-made performer. Clayton may be the most polished receiver in the draft and has top-end speed. His size isn’t ideal, but Houston is looking for a deep threat to start opposite Andre Johnson, not a No. 1. Mark reminds us of Michael Clayton, another polished receiver with excellent hands and playmaking ability who soared from a late first round projection to the #15 pick. This Clayton is smaller, but should be productive as a pro. 14. Carolina Panthers – Derrick Johnson, Texas LB In this mock draft, Carolina would think long and hard about Cedric Benson. But between Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, and Nick Goings, John Fox must be confident the running game can get the job done. They don’t really need Johnson either, but the Panthers have a knack for taking the best player available. They are usually right, and it’s often in the front seven. Mark Fields is likely to return, but the Panthers need depth behind him and Dan Morgan. They can’t count on that core to stay healthy. Other options include Washington tackle Khalif Barnes and Texas running back Cedric Benson, if he makes it this far. 15. Kansas City Chiefs – Carlos Rogers, Auburn CB Kansas City should take the best defensive player available, but they will probably just grab the best corner left. Luckily for them, Rogers provides fine value here. We don’t see a huge gap between Rogers and Adam Jones. Rogers has better size, speed, and won the Thorpe award as the top defensive back in college football last season. Kansas City still hopes to acquire Patrick Surtain in a trade or Ty Law via free agency. Even if that happens, Rogers or a linebacker should be the pick here. 16. New Orleans Saints – Thomas Davis, Georgia S/OLB Don’t be surprised if dem Saints move up to get their man this year. They have been horked out of their choices the last two seasons. They wanted Dewayne Robertson in ‘03, but ended up with Jonathan Sullivan, eating machine. They wanted linebacker D.J. Williams last year and ended up with Will Smith. Davis is a ferocious tackler and has the aggression the New Orleans D has lacked recently. He could play strong safety or outside linebacker, both positions of need for New Orleans. They should go defense with this pick, and don’t need help along the front four. 17. Cincinnati Bengals – Travis Johnson, Florida St. DT Other than tight end, Marvin Lewis’ offense is loaded. The team still needs help in every area of the defense. Since stopping the run was their biggest problem in ’04, we bet they go for the most talented tackle in the draft. Johnson is wildly skilled, with a first step that has drawn comparisons to Warren Sapp. His motivation was questionable in school, but Lewis is the type of player’s coach to get his best effort in the pros. Johnson has some boom-or-bust potential. 18. Minnesota Vikings – Erasmus James, Wisconsin DE In this mock, we’d draft LSU DE Marcus Spears if we were the Vikings. His size would fit right in on the Vikings D-line. He looks like a solid, if not spectacular, right defensive end. Minnesota, however, tends to go for the guys with measurables. They love the speedy prototypes like Kenechi Udeze, E.J. Henderson, and Dontarrious Thomas. James is the number one DE on some boards because of his measurables. No one has a better combination of size and speed, but no other first-rounder is so raw. James also has durability concerns, with injuries to his hip and ankle during college. 19. St. Louis Rams – Khalif Barnes, Washington T St. Louis needs help all over their defense and offensive line, so this pick could go in a few ways. After locking up Orlando Pace long-term, the Rams should find a bookend to pair him with. Kyle Turley won’t be back. Mike Martz’ aerial attack depends on excellent tackles to compensate for minimal help in protection. Barnes has the prototype size and strength, but some worry his motivation may vanish once he gets a paycheck. 20. Dallas Cowboys – DeMarcus Ware, Troy State DE/OLB The Cowboys will consider Ware with their 11th pick, so they’ll be fired up if he falls here. Ware provides startling athleticism and size for a player who will likely rush the passer from the linebacker position in the pros. Dallas wants to get flexible on defense, and Ware fits that profile perfectly. If Oklahoma receiver Mark Clayton falls here, he will be an option. Tennessee linebacker Kevin Burnett is another possibility. 21. Jacksonville Jaguars – Cedric Benson, Texas RB Before the emails starting piling in from Austin, hear us out. Running backs simply aren’t valued highly in player acquisition around the NFL. Look at last year’s draft, where Steven Jackson and Kevin Jones fell to the bottom of the first round. Many drafniks projected them as top ten picks. Also look at free agency and the trade market, where backs like Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander, and Travis Henry can’t be given away for second round picks. Money is a factor there, but it’s also a factor with top ten picks. Teams don’t like spending on running backs. Some running back is going to fall if A) Travis Henry and/or Shaun Alexander is traded by draft day or B) Miami or Arizona choose to wait until round two for a running back. Both scenarios look very possible. Benson certainly looks like a workhorse who will break tackles at the next level. His speed and vision are solid. It’s more of an economic thing if he falls in the draft. Jacksonville wants a long-term replacement for Fred Taylor and Greg Jones doesn’t look like the answer. If a top back doesn’t fall, look for Jacksonville to grab a tackle or wideout. 22. Baltimore Ravens – Marcus Spears, LSU DE The Ravens have a knack for grabbing the best player available, usually a defender. In this mock draft, there isn’t great value at wideout or defensive tackle here, which qualify as greater needs for Baltimore. Spears is a versatile defender who could possibly move inside at times at the pro level because of his excellent size. He also could challenge Anthony Weaver for a starting job. The Ravens are one team that is a candidate to move up in the first round, possibly to draft the fourth wide receiver. 23. Seattle Seahawks – Kevin Burnett, Tennessee LB Seattle has a habit of reaching for a need in recent drafts. Marcus Tubbs, Jerramy Stevens, Lamar King, and Anton Palepoi are some recent examples. Burnett probably doesn’t have a first round grade from most teams, but we still think he’d be a solid pick here. He flies around, and has excellent ball and tackling skills for a player his size (6’3, 240). It’s not a great draft for linebackers, but Seattle will be looking there. 24. Green Bay Packers – Charlie Frye, Akron QB Patrick Ramsey, J.P. Losman, Tim Couch, and Drew Brees have all been candidates to be the heir apparent to Brett Favre. It will be one of the most unenviable jobs in recent sports history. Just ask Jay Fiedler. This should finally be the year Green Bay uses a high pick on their next QB. We don’t think Frye is a good choice, but the Packers look intent on making it. He has moxie, but a lot of downside and lame physical tools for a first-rounder. Jason Campbell looks like the better choice. If we were the GM on draft day, which is beginning to look unlikely, we’d select a defensive end or linebacker. Grab the QB later, possibly Brees next offseason. 25. Denver Broncos – Fabian Washington, Nebraska CB The fastest defender in this year’s draft (4.28), Washington is no workout warrior. He started 35 games at Nebraska and improved every season. While he lacks size, that’s less of a factor under the NFL’s new “no-touch” emphasis. Washington could be the next Samari Rolle, and Denver would love to pair him with Champ Bailey long-term. Wide receiver is another option here. 26. New York Jets – Heath Miller, Virginia TE The Jets made tight end a priority this offseason, signing Denver’s Jeb Putzier to an expensive offer sheet. The Broncos elected to keep the restricted free agent, so New York still has a big hole. Their choice not to sign another veteran like Freddie Jones tells us that they’ll use a day one pick on the position. Miller was extremely productive at Virginia. If not for post-season sports hernia surgery, he’d be a top 15 pick. New York looked the other way when durability concerns were brought up in connection to Jonathan Vilma last season. That worked out pretty well. Look for a similar move here. Miller would likely start in Gotham. If Miller goes to the Bengals, Luis Castillo could be a Jason Ferguson replacement at defensive tackle. 27. Atlanta Falcons – Luis Castillo, Northwestern DT We love this kid, and he fits a need for Atlanta following the loss of Ed Jasper. Castillo is a nasty run defender who would slide in comfortably next to Rod Coleman. Their front four would be scary, because Castillo is a guy with NFL-ready skills. 28. San Diego Chargers – Shaun Cody, USC DE The Chargers don’t have to draft for need, but they should be looking for cornerbacks, defensive ends, and wideouts with their first round picks. With Keenan McCardell, Reche Caldwell, and Eric Parker in the fold, they can wait until round two for a receiver. As a DT/DE ‘tweener, Cody is made for a 3-4 defense. He’ll fit in with San Diego’s high-motor defense. 29. Indianapolis Colts – Justin Miller, Clemson CB For value, the Colts are likely to take the best DT, CB, or LB available here. Miller looks like a Colt defender: undersized, pesky, and very quick. He played a lot of man coverage in college, but should fit right into a cover-two. 30. Pittsburgh Steelers – Matt Jones, Arkansas WR/TE/QB It’s a mock draft, so we might as well have fun. Jones has been the story of the college post-season, displaying freakish speed and natural ability for a former quarterback. He’s likely to be a wideout or H-back in the pros, specializing in jump balls and deep passes. Bill Cowher likes the “slash” type, drafting Antwaan Randle-El and Kordell Stewart. Jones is more exciting of a prospect than both. 31. Philadelphia Eagles – Reggie Brown, Georgia WR The Eagles are candidates to trade up because they’ve done it before and they have five first-day picks. If they hold tight, Philadelphia should look hard at Brown. The drop-off from the No. 3 receiver in the draft to him is not great. The explosive player has an underrated NFL skill: sudden area quickness. He has natural speed, but he also knows how to get open. Durability is the only question here. He could be a long-term upgrade over Todd Pinkston. 32. New England Patriots – Dan Cody, Oklahoma DE The Patriots usually draft for value, not need. They also like to think out of the box. If Cody were to slip to #32, we think they’d grab the wildly productive defensive end and see if he can make the transition to linebacker. It worked for Tedy Bruschi, Willie McGinest, and Mike Vrabel. Since the natural inside linebacker prospects aren’t great this year, New England could also look for cornerbacks or wideouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted April 15, 2005 Share Posted April 15, 2005 Castilla wont be a first rounder...not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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