meazza Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, Warren Zevon said: You tell me 5G. Are you sure they're not differentiating? What kind of an answer is that ? Do you ever think for yourself or simply defer to authority which has been changing their stance on this over the last 4 months ?
GG Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said: You tell me 5G. Are you sure they're not differentiating? Read their guidance for yourself. The specifically state "infected", while most academic articles discuss "exposure" Two different animals
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said: I posted in the national open up thread that Fairfax VA schools are not opening in the fall (2 days max IF you choose that), and today CT said it will be opening schools, NJ is close to a decision (which sounded like yes to reopening). That is helpful. Not only will schools reopening help businesses get back to normal, but if kids are not carriers (which I find hard to believe, but the data that has come out seems to support that they are not super spreaders/getters) they will be fine. The teachers will get it, and help spread it, helping us reach herd immunity. Now, if I am a 60 year-old+ teacher or school administrator with some other health issue? I might seriously consider retiring. But otherwise? I think schools opening go a long, long way to normalcy and economic recovery. Don't forget about as well CDC covid19 Kawasaki like happening to kids as well. I think school's going to use caution. On the phone hard to link and details. I think know what I mean? Edited June 26, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan
GG Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I'm getting tested for antibodies tomorrow (first draw was bad). Are you saying if I test positive for antibodies I'll be a 'new case'? Don't know how that would be reflected in the statistics. Assuming that if you had been negative before, but will no show positive for antibodies, you will be a new case. The point is that Mayo is saying that herd immunity is achieved after 70% of the people were infected, as opposed to being exposed to the virus.
meazza Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said: Don't forget about as well CDC covid19 Kawasaki like happening to kids as well. I think school's going to use caution. On the phone hard to link and details. I think know what I mean? That Kawasaki disease went away as quickly as it came. 1
Warren Zevon Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, GG said: Read their guidance for yourself. The specifically state "infected", while most academic articles discuss "exposure" Two different animals Johns Hopkins https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”1 of COVID-19. For example, Rush Limbaugh2 recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe. Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4%3–5 of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%6,7 of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.8 Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,”9 akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. For example, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the mortality rate among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 was 1%. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States, killing almost 2,000 Americans every day.8 Chickenpox never killed more than 150 Americans in a year.9 To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time. As we discuss when and how to phase in re-opening,10 it is important to understand how vulnerable we remain. Increased testing will help us better understand the scope of infection, but it is clear this pandemic is still only beginning to unfold. Edited June 26, 2020 by Warren Zevon
GG Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 Good move by Abbott to slow down the reopening by cutting back on social activities. Based on precedent, they will hit a peak 2-3 weeks from now, and can resume after that. 2
meazza Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, GG said: Good move by Abbott to slow down the reopening by cutting back on social activities. Based on precedent, they will hit a peak 2-3 weeks from now, and can resume after that. I will begin to worry when former hot spots such as NYC, Milan and Montreal start to flare up again. 1
GG Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said: Johns Hopkins https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”1 of COVID-19. For example, Rush Limbaugh2 recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe. Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4%3–5 of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%6,7 of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.8 Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,”9 akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. For example, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the mortality rate among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 was 1%. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States, killing almost 2,000 Americans every day.8 Chickenpox never killed more than 150 Americans in a year.9 To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time. As we discuss when and how to phase in re-opening,10 it is important to understand how vulnerable we remain. Increased testing will help us better understand the scope of infection, but it is clear this pandemic is still only beginning to unfold. Do you even bother comprehending what you post. Here's the operative statement: To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. That includes people who were infected or are immune from the get go.
Warren Zevon Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, GG said: Do you even bother comprehending what you post. Here's the operative statement: To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. That includes people who were infected or are immune from the get go. Cool - my original point before you went on your wild tangent is we have not reached herd immunity like was claimed. 5 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said: As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe.
GG Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Warren Zevon said: Cool - my original point before you went on your wild tangent is we have not reached herd immunity like was claimed. It wasn't a wild tangent. Let's replay for the ######ed. Using CDC data that over 20% of the US was already infected (real number likely higher), and estimates that 20%-30% could be naturally resistant, gets you very close to herd immunity. Which is fully supported by a near full stop of the spread in ALL early hard- hit areas. 1
Warren Zevon Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, GG said: estimates that 20%-30% could be naturally resistant Where are these estimates from? Outside of your posts I have yet to hear this theorized.
GG Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said: Where are these estimates from? Outside of your posts I have yet to hear this theorized. The data is out there if you weren't lazy. Start with the basics that <20 yr olds are 50% less likely to get infected. Not be asymptomatic, but not susceptible to get the virus in the first place. So please tell me why 20% natural resistance across the population is out of whack?
Warren Zevon Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, GG said: The data is out there if you weren't lazy. Start with the basics that <20 yr olds are 50% less likely to get infected. Not be asymptomatic, but not susceptible to get the virus in the first place. So please tell me why 20% natural resistance across the population is out of whack? Your numbers make sense but your assumptions behind them I find faulty. I'd be interested in reading some scientific articles on the percentage of the population that has natural resistance to coronavirus. I've Googled/DuckDuckGoed: "Coronavirus natural resistance" and "covid natural resistance" but could not find any. Feel free to share. Happy Friday - Silver Lake calls, time to rev up the boat.
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 27 minutes ago, meazza said: That Kawasaki disease went away as quickly as it came. Arizona 3 days ago fox news posted on it. Busy day I'll link it later still on phone saw it couple minutes ago
GG Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, Warren Zevon said: Your numbers make sense but your assumptions behind them I find faulty. I'd be interested in reading some scientific articles on the percentage of the population that has natural resistance to coronavirus. I've Googled/DuckDuckGoed: "Coronavirus natural resistance" and "covid natural resistance" but could not find any. Feel free to share. Happy Friday - Silver Lake calls, time to rev up the boat. There are no studies on this yet because it's a bit unethical to expose people to a live virus fir which there's no cure. The anecdotal evidence is overwhelming though, especially when you look at cases that come from confined spaces, such as ships, nursing homes, meatpacking, prisons & large families living together.
BillStime Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 48 minutes ago, meazza said: Crazy how ***** @Warren Zevon & @BillStime are. Want to know what is crazy? 8,942 new cases in Florida and 13% positive rate, meaning that is an undercount. Complete incompetence by Trump puppet Governor Ron DeSantis. Pray for the people of Florida. Florida adds another 8,942 new COVID-19 cases, breaking single-day record again June 18: 3,207 June 19: 3,822 June 20: 4,049 June 21: 3,494 June 22: 2,926 June 23: 3,286 June 24: 5,508 June 25: 5,004 June 26: 8,942
GG Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, BillStime said: Want to know what is crazy? 8,942 new cases in Florida and 13% positive rate, meaning that is an undercount. Complete incompetence by Trump puppet Governor Ron DeSantis. Pray for the people of Florida. Florida adds another 8,942 new COVID-19 cases, breaking single-day record again June 18: 3,207 June 19: 3,822 June 20: 4,049 June 21: 3,494 June 22: 2,926 June 23: 3,286 June 24: 5,508 June 25: 5,004 June 26: 8,942 Tell us when Florida approaches this graph that was created by your hero and that you celebrated with glee
Chef Jim Posted June 26, 2020 Posted June 26, 2020 56 minutes ago, meazza said: What kind of an answer is that ? Do you ever think for yourself or simply defer to authority which has been changing absolutely ***** wrong about almost every ***** stance on this over the last 4 months ? Corrected because you were being too nice.
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