Buffalo_Gal Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said: I have asked this elsewhere, but here goes the $10,000 question: Overall, are all cause deaths up YTD compared to years past? Or does the data move so slow that we won't know until next year? Early on in this thread that was a question asked many times. It will take a while to see the year-to-year on this, as well as how many people die next year, for comparisons.
spartacus Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 40 minutes ago, shoshin said: Another 2600+ cases in Florida. We can spin the Florida case jumps all we want but let's be honest: We all wish they were level to declining. Or they got amazingly good at case-tracing in the last 5 days. you can't reach herd immunity (and eliminate need for vaccine) without new cases
Magox Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, shoshin said: Deaths trail cases (not sure they will in this case...can only watch) but what you said if true at all, is only barely true. Looks pretty level since mid-May, with low overall deaths in general. The deaths are clearly trending lower. It's not even a question. 1
FireChans Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, shoshin said: You're a regular fountain of bad information. Hospitalizations are also pretty level, rising in the last week. I'm more sympathetic to your point of view than you think, but you need to accept that not all the data is peachy. The overall trend is still down. If you pick one week, it looks worse than if you pick 3. 1
Westside Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said: When the Agent with the growing nose, speaks he defends 117,290 deaths so he can kiss DT and MP. Too busy looking for conspiracy to care about citizens dieing. Idealogy is more important. Blame is more important. He hides in his basement and defends the indefensible. You sicken me and many others. 117290 citizens. How many of those did cuomo kill in the nursing homes? 1
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said: Overstated USA Mar 17th, 2020...100 deaths USA June 17, 2020...117,290 deaths In spite of all the declarations, ignoring of data, bold macho spin, chest thumping, blaming of China, defunding of WHO, admonishment of CDC, taking a bow for stopping flights from the world, miracle drugs, army hospital ships, more ventilators etc etc....clearly this virus which has now in 3 months killed more American citizens than died in WW1 is winning. By Sept 1 more deaths than WW1, KOREA, and Vietnam wars combined. The blame game and ignoring clearly is a bad strategy. You're an emotional soul. That's touching. The virus is responsible for many, many deaths. We know that the folks in charge have estimated that political gerrymandeering of the numbers has them 25% high. I'd think the reality is likely higher, maybe 30-35% high. Still a very large number, still very sad....and still so confusing to me as to why you're not outraged by protestors exposing themselves and fellow citizens who continue to follow social distancing guidelines to this horrible virus that came from China. Given your perspective---Would you support the White House mobilizing the troops to squelch the protests to drive down the numbers? The governors clearly have no stomach for that sort of thing. Assume the president was someone you respected. Maybe as an alternative, force the protestors to disband but suggest as an alternative a virtual protest? 1
shoshin Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Magox said: The deaths are clearly trending lower. It's not even a question. Mid may, the 7-day avg looks to be at 37. Yesterday...maybe 34. We're talking low numbers but it's only lower since the peak. Not trending lower in the last month but level, unless you want to make a big deal of the cliff-like descent (!) from 37 to 34 as "clearly trending lower." And if that's your position, I guess we're arguing about the clarity of the trend from 37 to 34 indicating some great improvement. Edited June 17, 2020 by shoshin
Magox Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 For a state of a population of 28 million people and never went through any real peak, Florida did it the exact way you would hope that they would. Which was to never experience a peaking point that would even come close to threatening the fears of not being able to flatten the curve. The curve is flattened but doesn't bottom out as quickly as the places that experienced the high mortalities. That's how it works. Here is a chart that illustrates what flattening the curve looks like vs one that didn't do as well. You see how the ones that didn't do it right, it is a steeper incline and more rapid drop. Not as efficient because the medical system is stressed and isn't able to provide as good of care per patient on a per capita basis. Whereas the places that were more successful didn't experience the peaks but took longer to bottom out. Which is the way it is supposed to be, because the patients are able to get the care they need without having overstressed medical systems.
GG Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 1 hour ago, shoshin said: I didn't post for the overall counts, but the trendline as I noted several times. I couldn't find the 330-million-person western hemisphere country to compare the US too, so I chose one of the free countries of continental Europe that has almost our exact testing/capita, and even suggested that Spain could be used to make the same comparison (though I didn't chose it because their testing/capita is better than ours). If you think there is another country that provides a better comparison, please feel free to share it. If you combine DE, ES, FR, and IT, you will end up with trendlines that similarly decline faster than the US. It's something I observe and hope that we resemble their path downwards as a nation soon. That's the point, you cannot compare US to any other country. Our geography and federalism make a simple country comparison irrelevant. A far better correlation would be other countries to individual states. 1
SoCal Deek Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 What in the world are you people yapping about now? Just print and post the death curve from the CDC Site. The curve is GONE!
Magox Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 1 minute ago, GG said: That's the point, you cannot compare US to any other country. Our geography and federalism make a simple country comparison irrelevant. A far better correlation would be other countries to individual states. That is correct. It's almost as if there are 50 autonomous states, our geography is much different than Europe's makeup in many ways. India and Brazil would be about as close of comparison as you could get.
shoshin Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, GG said: That's the point, you cannot compare US to any other country. Our geography and federalism make a simple country comparison irrelevant. A far better correlation would be other countries to individual states. Ok, so does that mean Magox will stop comparing Sweden to the US? I think we learn a lot from looking at the way other countries have acted and fared, and they learn from us. One of the reasons I expect us to get back to normal faster is because different countries took so many different approaches both in policy and medicine. 1 minute ago, Magox said: That is correct. It's almost as if there are 50 autonomous states, our geography is much different than Europe's makeup in many ways. India and Brazil would be about as close of comparison as you could get. I can't compare a European country to the US but you think India is a good comparison. Okey dokey then. Edited June 17, 2020 by shoshin
GG Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, shoshin said: Ok, so does that mean Magox will stop comparing Sweden to the US? I think we learn a lot from looking at the way other countries have acted and fared, and they learn from us. One of the reasons I expect us to get back to normal faster is because different countries took so many different approaches both in policy and medicine. I can't compare a European country to the US but you think India is a good comparison. Okey dokey then. All the early stage EU countries should be compared to NE states, where US will look very poorly by comparison. Yes, India and Brazil are probably the best comps to the overall US (if they had good reporting). China would too if you could trust their numbers.
shoshin Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 Just now, GG said: Yes, India and Brazil are probably the best comps to the overall US (if they had good reporting). China would too if you could trust their numbers. You guys have got to be kidding about India.
GG Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: You guys have got to be kidding about India. Please explain.
shoshin Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, GG said: Please explain. I dunno, their population density, population overall, the fact that they have 1 billion people living below the lowest poverty line that the poorest person in America could even imagine, abominable healthcare, negligible government control and rule compliance, poor hygiene on average, poor nutrition, less weather variation (yes I know they have mountains and a little zone of cool places). Off the top of my head and by the way, I LOVE India. But it ain't comparable to America unless you can carve out its 300M middle class people and make them not live with the other 1B people and spread them out over a larger area. Then you might have an OK comparison, though you'd still have more cultural differences to acocunt for than European countries. Come on man: The European countries are clearly the best comparison. If it makes you feel better, lump the continental giants together for comparison's sake. They are still doing better. Brazil might be the top of the list after them. Edited June 17, 2020 by shoshin
3rdnlng Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 Again, just a reminder: The various shutdowns were specifically designed to slow the spread of the virus to an amount that our medical facilities can handle. They called it "flattening the curve". We have reached the point where the curve has been flattened and life must go on. Knowing that opening up will contribute to more hospitalizations, deaths and cases in which the infected people don't even know they had the virus, this stage of fighting Covid-19 was always expected. If you are high risk, protect yourself. If you are not high risk get your ass back to work and spend some money on products made in the USA. While you are at it, keep away from high risk people. Those of you who perpetually have a wild hair up your butt need to quit moving the goalposts and realize that we are just at a stage of a plan to deal with the virus. 1 1
GG Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: I dunno, their population density, population overall, the fact that they have 800 million people living below the lowest poverty line that the poorest person in America could even imagine, abominable healthcare, negligible government control and rule compliance, poor hygiene on average, poor nutrition, less weather variation (yes I know they have mountains and a little zone of cool places). Off the top of my head and by the way, I LOVE India. But it ain't comparable to America. It's fully comparable due to its size, geography, and diversity of cultures and races. Not everyone in India is dirt poor
shoshin Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 1 minute ago, GG said: It's fully comparable due to its size, geography, and diversity of cultures and races. Not everyone in India is dirt poor I know a lot about India and have been many times. India is less than half the size of the continental US. It has a gazillion more cultures and diversity than us. And how are you going to compare the middle class of India to the US...ignore the 800,000,000 people who live on less than $2 per day? I assume you're just trolling because you're not giving any data, so good on you: You got me!
GG Posted June 17, 2020 Posted June 17, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: I know a lot about India and have been many times. India is less than half the size of the continental US. It has a gazillion more cultures and diversity than us. And how are you going to compare the middle class of India to the US...ignore the 800,000,000 people who live on less than $2 per day? I assume you're just trolling because you're not giving any data, so good on you: You got me! You asked a question of which country is applicable to compare to the US, the answer is not many, but if you were to pick some, Brazil, China, and India would apply. Maybe Russia to an extent (definitely Soviet Union if it were alive). Indian poverty is just one factor of the overall equation, but not a huge one, considering there's low correlation of poverty to Covid in the US, and there are many poorer countries than India that aren't experiencing the same outbreaks. And it seems that you agree that having a lot of racial and cultural diversity is a good place to study a pandemic.
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