The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Chef Jim]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

So percent positive is no longer a useful stat? Good to have you on board!

It’s not actually.  This is highly contagious so at some point a vast majority of the people will likely get it. How many people do you know who have said “you know I think I had it back in.....”  The most important stats are number of deaths?  No. Percentages of cases that result in deaths and the demographics of those deaths. 

[spartacus]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

With that said, if contact tracing is indeed having a statistical impact then it would skew the percent positive rate higher.

 

who is subject to contact tracing?

If everyone that tests postive gets a call, this would seem to be a deterrent to get tested if not seriously sick.

 

[GG]

Just now, spartacus said:

who is subject to contact tracing?

If everyone that tests postive gets a call, this would seem to be a deterrent to get tested if not seriously sick.

 

 

You're asking about an individuals' psychological make up? 

 

It's hard to rationalize not getting a test if someone you've been in close contact was recently tested positive.   

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Nick Cordero hits day 75 in hospital, wife Amanda Kloots urges people to take coronavirus seriously

Sara M Moniuszko

USA TODAY

0:04

0:48

As Nick Cordero hits 75 days in the hospital, his wife Amanda Kloots is urging people to stay safe amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The Broadway star, 41, has been hospitalized in intensive care due to severe complications from COVID-19.

In a post to Instagram Monday, Kloots shared a photo of herself in a face mask and a caption urging her followers to take the virus seriously.

"This is my reminder to you to stay safe, wear your mask, wash your hands, social distance and don’t leave your home unless you have to. You don’t want this virus," she wrote. "You don’t want your loved one to get this virus. It’s still here and unfortunately increasing again."

She continued, "I never thought Nick or I would get COVID and we both thought of we did we would be able to stay at home and recover. Nick is 41 years old, in shape and had no preexisting health conditions. He is going on day 75 in the ICU. My heart breaks for him everyday. Please be safe"

Staying Apart, Together:How to cope after a tragic week

Since his original diagnosis, Cordero has tested negative for the virus but suffered from a lung infection at the end of last month and remains on a ventilator. He also recently began stem cell treatment last week to help heal his lungs.

Kloots, a celebrity fitness trainer, has kept her more than 322,000 Instagram followers well-informed on Cordero's latest highs and lows as she continues to look for the positives and blast her husband's music with their baby Elvis. 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2020/06/16/nick-cordero-75th-day-hosptial-amanda-kloots-says-stay-safe/3197226001/

 

 

Gotta feel for this guy. Blood clots to legs cause of covid19. Amputation. 75 days in ICU. That guy is tough hope he makes it. 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

So now we're back to linear comparisons of countries with <40 mil populations to one with 330 million?

 

Uhh, no. Here's what I said: "Our trend line has been slower to decline than theirs (see the guy who faxed in the graph from the NYT yesterday) but it's still promising that those countries have yet to see rises in deaths on reopening."

 

Compare Italy for example in deaths and cases (you could pick Spain too but I picked Italy because their testing per capita is almost identical to ours). You'll note the trend line for the US decline in deaths has a shallower slope, and the line for cases is not similar at all. I hope that at some point, we follow the trends of those places, and suspect we are regionally similar to Italy in the NE states, but cannot as a country follow the trend because we have areas falling while other rise. It's too early to predict that we will follow these countries on reopening but I hope we get to a curve that looks like theirs. 

 

 

to the US: 

 

 

And then cases:

 

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by shoshin

[GG]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Uhh, no. Here's what I said: "Our trend line has been slower to decline than theirs (see the guy who faxed in the graph from the NYT yesterday) but it's still promising that those countries have yet to see rises in deaths on reopening."

 

Compare Italy for example in deaths and cases (you could pick Spain too but I picked Italy because their testing per capita is almost identical to ours). You'll note the trend line for the US decline in deaths has a shallower slope, and the line for cases is not similar at all. I hope that at some point, we follow the trends of those places, and suspect we are regionally similar to Italy in the NE states, but cannot as a country follow the trend because we have areas falling while other rise. It's too early to predict that we will follow these countries on reopening but I hope we get to a curve that looks like theirs. 

 

 

to the US: 

 

 

And then cases:

 

 

 

Again, that's a misleading graphic because you're comparing countries that have already gone through their peak.  The more appropriate comparison would be those countries to NYS.  Notice a different pattern?

 

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Again, that's a misleading graphic because you're comparing countries that have already gone through their peak. 

 

That's not your original point but OK. 

 

4 minutes ago, GG said:

The more appropriate comparison would be those countries to NYS.  Notice a different pattern?

 

 

Erm...I said, "I hope that at some point, we follow the trends of those places, and suspect we are regionally similar to Italy in the NE states,"

 

The real test is coming now and in the next few months with the reopening statistics. And the next biger (IMO) test of how we handle this comes this fall especially into November. I expect us to be able to manage. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by shoshin

[GG]

Just now, shoshin said:

 

Do you realize I said exactly that? "I hope that at some point, we follow the trends of those places, and suspect we are regionally similar to Italy in the NE states,"

 

Then why do you post misleading graphs? 

 

It's clear that Fla & Texas may be hitting infection peaks as the virus is working through the states.  But so far, evidence shows that their experience will be much better, most likely due to fewer unknowns, updated medical procedures, and overall better handling of the pandemic than the motley crew in Northeast.

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

That's not your original point but OK. 

 

 

That is most certainly my original point.

[shoshin]

Just now, GG said:

 

Then why do you post misleading graphs? 

 

It's clear that Fla & Texas may be hitting infection peaks as the virus is working through the states.  But so far, evidence shows that their experience will be much better, most likely due to fewer unknowns, updated medical procedures, and overall better handling of the pandemic than the motley crew in Northeast.

 

Posting data is not misleading and I noted EXACTLY the point you made.

 

I am wondering when and/or if we will follow the trendline in a place like Italy as we reopen. I don't know--no one does. 

[GG]

Just now, shoshin said:

 

Posting data is not misleading and I noted EXACTLY the point you made.

 

I am wondering when and/or if we will follow the trendline in a place like Italy as we reopen. I don't know--no one does. 

 

Posting incomparable data is misleading.  You should not be posting side by side graphs of smaller countries that have already gone through their peaks with the overall USA graphs.   I can post factual data of home runs and touchdowns.  Now tell me the correlation.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

 

 

One of the things that is important to continue dialogue with anyone is if they are able to comprehend what is being said.  If not, then interest in continuing to engage with that particular person lessens.  What's the point?  If words don't matter.  I didn't say or imply that it wasn't a good measure, I said it was the best measure we have to gauge prevalency and that if indeed what De Santis says (which seems to make sense) is the case where contact tracing is having a statistical impact, then it would water down the value of the percent positive gauge for prevalency.  The statement that I made some time ago, still stands, which is that it's the best metric to gauge prevalency.   

 

All the basic metrics, from total positive tests, percentage positive test rate, new hospital admissions, total hospitalizations to net new deaths would all have to be viewed to get a good reading of what is going on.   

 

And the reason why I have nowhere near as much the passion on this topic that I did before is because this is a largely settled matter in the minds of many.  We already know this virus is even safer than the flu for kids under 20.  That is on par with the flu for those that are between 20-60.  Slightly more dangerous than the flu for those 60-75 and more so for those over 75.   If you are healthy with one or no comorbidities then we know that you are at very little risk of the virus becoming lethal for you.

 

Knowing what we know today in regards to the risks and who is at risk, and knowing that people from almost all parts of the country were already fatigued with the stay-at-home orders and knowing that some of the politicians in power are essentially mini tyrants  and knowing that some in the medical community are hacks; there is no going back to what we saw before.  That is over.

 

Could there be some paternalistic officials that pause reopenings or delay them or in some cases go back to some stringent levels?  Yes, but it wouldn't be widespread and even then, the compliance in those areas would be terrible.  The jig is up,

 

The only way that I think I could be wrong was if somehow much of the country caught on fire with the virus and I don't see that happening.   I just don't see that scenario playing out.  

 

 

To me man  still gotta be cautious. Don't disagree but can't go out there thinking virus won't affect me overconfident. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

CORONAVIRUS

Published 1 day ago

'Life-saving' coronavirus drug discovered by Oxford researchers

By Chris Ciaccia | Fox News

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Fox News Flash top headlines for June 16

Researchers at Oxford University have discovered what is believed to be the first evidence of a drug that can reduce the risk of death from COVID-19 by up to one-third, a steroid known as dexamethasone.

The drug, which is "instantly available and affordable worldwide" and is also a steroid, was found to reduce deaths in patients receiving oxygen by one-fifth and those on ventilators by one-third, according to preliminary results released Tuesday.

"Dexamethasone is the first drug to be shown to improve survival in COVID-19. This is an extremely welcome result," Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases in the Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, and one of the Chief Investigators for the trial, said in a statement. "The survival benefit is clear and large in those patients who are sick enough to require oxygen treatment, so dexamethasone should now become standard of care in these patients. Dexamethasone is inexpensive, on the shelf, and can be used immediately to save lives worldwide."

COVID-19 IS 12 TIMES DEADLIER FOR PATIENTS WITH UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS: CDC

Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the Food and Drug Administration, called the results a "robust finding," adding it could have "meaningful" implications.

Scott Gottlieb, MD✔@ScottGottliebMD

This is a robust finding and could meaningful affect outcomes. We're learning how to better treat advanced Covid disease and, combined with other new strategies like anticoagulation, we should see Covid mortality rates decline as long as we preserve our healthcare capacity. https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1272872980104777728 …

Squawk Box✔@SquawkCNBC

"This is a very positive finding and it's a robust finding. It's a well-done study ... it certainly suggests that this could be beneficial in this setting. This is an important finding here today." @ScottGottliebMD gives initial thoughts on #dexamethasone as a #COVID19 treatment.

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The results of the study will be released soon, the researchers said. The funding for the study was provided by the U.K. government, as well as private donors, including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The study, known as the RECOVERY Trial, enrolled more than 11,000 patients in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Some 2,104 patients were randomly assigned to get the drug, while another 4,321 patients received usual care, the Associated Press reported.

Other patients received the HIV combo drug lopinavir-ritonavir, the antibiotic azithromycin; the anti-inflammatory drug tocilizumab, or plasma from recovered COVID-19 patients.                                 https://www.foxnews.com/science/life-saving-coronavirus-drug-discovered-by-oxford-researchers

Edited June 17, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Dante]

Still not wearing a mask. Still no anxiety (as far as health goes). My anxiety is what our very capable leader Gavin is going to do to us as the propaganda machine seems to be laying the foundation for the first Covid 19 sequel in the fall. "Covid-19: The Reckoning"

[spartacus]

6 minutes ago, Dante said:

Still not wearing a mask. Still no anxiety (as far as health goes). My anxiety is what our very capable leader Gavin is going to do to us as the propaganda machine seems to be laying the foundation for the first Covid 19 sequel in the fall. "Covid-19: The Reckoning"

if it comes back in the fall, is it no longer a "novel" virus?

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[Koko78]

53 minutes ago, Dante said:

Still not wearing a mask. Still no anxiety (as far as health goes). My anxiety is what our very capable leader Gavin is going to do to us as the propaganda machine seems to be laying the foundation for the first Covid 19 sequel in the fall. "Covid-19: The Reckoning"

 

I'm sure that the second shutdown will, just by happenstance, coincide with the election, requiring massive ballot harvesting by the CA Democrat party.

[spartacus]

9 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

I'm sure that the second shutdown will, just by happenstance, coincide with the election, requiring massive ballot harvesting by the CA Democrat party.

what a deal- all of those older dead people now able to vote to stop Trump

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, GG said:

 

Posting incomparable data is misleading.  You should not be posting side by side graphs of smaller countries that have already gone through their peaks with the overall USA graphs.   I can post factual data of home runs and touchdowns.  Now tell me the correlation.

 

I didn't post for the overall counts, but the trendline as I noted several times. I couldn't find the 330-million-person western hemisphere country to compare the US too, so I chose one of the free countries of continental Europe that has almost our exact testing/capita, and even suggested that Spain could be used to make the same comparison (though I didn't chose it because their testing/capita is better than ours). 

 

If you think there is another country that provides a better comparison, please feel free to share it. If you combine DE, ES, FR, and IT, you will end up with trendlines that similarly decline faster than the US. It's something I observe and hope that we resemble their path downwards as a nation soon. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, Koko78 said:

 

I'm sure that the second shutdown will, just by happenstance, coincide with the election, requiring massive ballot harvesting by the CA Democrat party.

When does the current federal emergency run out? IOW, if it runs out before the fall and there are no new federal dollars... California may have to rethink a second shutdown.

[Westside]

1 hour ago, spartacus said:

what a deal- all of those older dead people now able to vote to stop Trump

I heard that the dead people for biden is really gaining momentum