The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[spartacus]

15 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

Could the shutdown , masks and social distancing  have brought the projected numbers down ?

wearing a hairnet on your face is as effective as wearing a mask

Physics does not support any mask propaganda

 

microscopic virus particles of .14 microns can not be stopped by mask material that at best (N-95) filters down to .3 microns  

[Buffalo_Gal]

I would like to be a Pollyanna here and state that hindsight is always 20/20.  Leadership at the Federal and State levels knew what they were told by the experts months ago (whether it was medical experts or the state department). That was in the information they had to go on.  That was the information they based their decisions on. 



 

[Cinga]

23 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

27 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

Could the shutdown , masks and social distancing  have brought the projected numbers down ?

Not likely.  Look at Sweden.

^^^^This^^^^

 

As well as the fact in most cases still, they only count as infected people that have been tested positive and not the many more who were asymptomatic. We know know by a growing number of studies that are counting people with anti-bodies dropping the mortality rate to a new CDC listed of 0.3%, MUCH lower than previously. And I think when all is said and done, that number will prove to be even lower. 

[ALF]

33 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

Not likely.  Look at Sweden.

 

If China and the U.S. went for herd immunity like Sweden , to me that would be very scary. The death toll for the elderly might have been massive. I hope they figure this out before the fall in case it returns .

[Cinga]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I would like to be a Pollyanna here and state that hindsight is always 20/20.  Leadership at the Federal and State levels knew what they were told by the experts months ago (whether it was medical experts or the state department). That was in the information they had to go on.  That was the information they based their decisions on. 



 

 

True, however I can go back through these pages over and over and show where some of us disputed those "experts", often even using their own data and are now proving to have been correct.

 

[Cinga]

7 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

If China and the U.S. went for herd immunity like Sweden , to me that would be very scary. The death toll for the elderly might have been massive. I hope they figure this out before the fall in case it returns .

I suspect you are going to find that herd immunity is the way to go. Theoretically, when you hit about 20% immunity, it narrows the choice of hosts for the disease, limiting the numbers naturally because of it. We know now the NYC may already be at that level, with the entire state sitting right now at about 14%

 

As for the elderly, yes, that is a tragedy that there is no excuse for. We left our most vulnerable exposed and a part of me wants authorities responsible to be held accountable.

[shoshin]

13 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

If China and the U.S. went for herd immunity like Sweden , to me that would be very scary. The death toll for the elderly might have been massive. I hope they figure this out before the fall in case it returns .

 

We were swimming in uncharted waters in February and early March. Cases were going up exponentially in Italy and hospitals there were being overrun. Here, cases were just starting to rise. The shutdown was justified while we got our arms around the problem, and it was a legitimate one. 

 

Even when Trump pushed to extend it beyond the initial 15 and encouraged states like GA not to open, it was justified though it was starting to lose its edge by then because we could see what was happening in Italy (cases were falling). 

 

The slow reopening is going well. Most people who are complaining like it's the end of the world on either side are getting what they want within weeks, so we can debate the edges of the reopening (reopen this week vs 3 weeks from now, reopen no restaurants vs 50% capacity, etc) but we're all headed in the same direction, with northern cities the slowest to reopen, as makes sense given their population density and use of mass transit, combined with more seed cases. There's a ton of social media screaming but we're all getting there.

 

In the fall, we will have a much better handle on things for what happens as cases start to rise including treatments, PPE, distancing measures, etc. If we shut down again, it will be a disaster. I don't think anyone will survive that politically. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by shoshin

[Tiberius]

8 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

We were swimming in uncharted waters in February and early March. Cases were going up exponentially in Italy and hospitals there were being overrun. Here, cases were just starting to rise. The shutdown was justified while we got our arms around the problem, and it was a legitimate one. 

 

Even when Trump pushed to extend it beyond the initial 15 and encouraged states like GA not to open, it was justified though it was starting to lose its edge by then because we could see what was happening in Italy (cases were falling). 

 

The slow reopening is going well. Most people who are complaining like it's the end of the world on either side are getting what they want within weeks, so we can debate the edges of the reopening (reopen this week vs 3 weeks from now, reopen no restaurants vs 50% capacity, etc) but we're all headed in the same direction, with northern cities the slowest to reopen, as makes sense given their population density and use of mass transit, combined with more seed cases. There's a ton of social media screaming but we're all getting there.

 

In the fall, we will have a much better handle on things for what happens as cases start to rise including treatments, PPE, distancing measures, etc. If we shut down again, it will be a disaster. I don't think anyone will survive that politically. 

You sure are optimistic. I'm looking at what's going on and thinking in two weeks we will see a big spike again. Hope I am wrong, but so many people are just acting like its not a big deal 

[Deranged Rhino]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

 

 

The prediction business on Covid is driven by a lot of hype. Party is not relevant. Just human nature to live in fear.

It’s NOT human nature to live in fear. We were PROGRAMMED to fear by the same media and entertainment complexes who’ve been pushing that drug all our lives. 
 

Don’t let them off that hook. 

[GG]

35 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

If China and the U.S. went for herd immunity like Sweden , to me that would be very scary. The death toll for the elderly might have been massive. I hope they figure this out before the fall in case it returns .

 

That's now how Sweden is going about it.  They're not sequestering the young and healthy, which is where the herd immunity is most effective.   Keep the infirm and elderly isolated until there's the herd and the virus is weakened.

[Cinga]

17 minutes ago, GG said:

 

That's now how Sweden is going about it.  They're not sequestering the young and healthy, which is where the herd immunity is most effective.   Keep the infirm and elderly isolated until there's the herd and the virus is weakened.

 

Well put, and this can't be  emphasized enough! Even many of the vaccines being worked on are not a "cure" but  are trying to achieve immunity through the use of platelets or replicating antibodies. The same thing that happens naturally through herd immunity!

[MILFHUNTER#518]

Pigs must have sprouted wings, because the NY Times actually published an interesting read. 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-deadliest-where-democrats-live-121518089.html

 

 

After reading the article, here are some takeaways. Ten things that will come from the CCP Virus, imho.

 

1) A flight away from urban areas. You don't have to be an epidemiologist to understand how high population density provides nearly ideal conditions for fostering pandemics. This is especially true in some large urban areas in the US where people are more-or-less tolerated living on the streets with some relieving themselves in public areas. Expect the flight of millennials to the suburbs and exurbs within two years of the corona lock-down abating. This happened after the Spanish Flu with places like Long Island and New Jersey being converted from farmland to suburbs seemingly overnight.

 

2) Re-thinking urban mass transit. Urban mass transit in the US, particularly in the eastern cities, has long grappled with the problem of the homeless taking shelter in buses and subways. Up until the corona virus, city leaders lacked the political will to do much about it. This will change. Obviously these soiled and usually ill unfortunates carry all manner of pathogens. In contrast, mass transit systems in Europe and Asia absolutely do not tolerate this public health hazard. City leaders will either have to make strict and perhaps politically unpopular policies to radically reform public transit or see people and companies flee their cities at an even faster pace. 

 

3) Private automobile ownership will skyrocket. It is only logical that with more people fleeing the health risks involved with public transportation combined with an exodus from the cities that more cars will be on the road. For reference, US auto sales nearly quadrupled within 2 years of the end of the Spanish flu pandemic. 

4) Distance learning (attending school on-line) Already growing rapidly prior to the virus, distance learning will become pervasive, comprising the bulk of instruction by middle school. This should lead to interesting, and as of yet, unforeseen changes in what it means to be a teacher as well as student. Teachers’ unions will try to mute this change, but will eventually adapt.

5) Many "green" initiatives will get the healthy level of skeptical review they deserve. An example is the "green" reusable grocery/shopping bag. After years of ignoring reports from credible institutions such as the Loma Linda University of Public Health warning of the dangers of these bags spreading pathogens they will become a distant memory as cities and states outlaw their use. Conventional single-use plastic and paper bags are sterile and easily recyclable - and most importantly, don't present a potentially lethal disease vector to store clerks.

6) Much stricter enforcement of border and immigration laws. Avoiding the importation of diseases has always been an important function for immigration departments world-wide. But again political correctness has muted many of these efforts in the US. Such wrong-headed open borders thinking will no longer be politically acceptable going forward. Here’s what happened after Spanish Flu – on May 19, 1921 a national quota system on the amount of incoming immigrants is established by the United States Congress in the Emergency Quota Act, curbing legal immigration. This was followed by the Immigration Act of 1924 greatly reducing the number of immigrants to the US.

 

7) A more conservative and capitalist mindset will sweep the US millennials. Following the Spanish Flu, the "progressive" movement of Woodrow Wilson was soundly rejected by the once socialist-leaning voter base. The Democrat ticket of James M. Cox and FDR was defeated by the largest popular vote percentage in US history. This resulted in the next three presidents elected to office following the Spanish flu being Republican as well as both the House and Senate enjoying Republicans majorities for the succeeding fourteen years.

 

8.) The aftermath of the corona pandemic will further ensconce the United States as the world’s only economic, military and cultural superpower. The US allies in Europe no longer have the economic mass to take leadership positions in world events and even our close and very capable friend, Japan, is suffering from a two-decade long economic malaise. The US recovery from corona will echo the early 1920’s when the US represented nearly 40% of the world’s industrial output.

 

9) The virus will provide the final nail in the coffin of the European Union. The government in Brussels was an anachronism when it was founded in 1992 and has now been shown to be an impediment to just about every member state except Germany, Belgium and to a lesser extent, France. 

10) The demands for a government takeover of healthcare in the US will decrease. As of the date of this writing (4/10/20) Italy, Spain, France, UK, Sweden and Denmark all with government healthcare system have 3-4 times the COVID-19 mortality rate of the US. Of course, there will be much more telling data available over time, but for now, having a government run health system isn’t a distinct advantage.

 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by MILFHUNTER#518

[shoshin]

44 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

It’s NOT human nature to live in fear. We were PROGRAMMED to fear by the same media and entertainment complexes who’ve been pushing that drug all our lives. 
 

 

It is human nature to live in fear. It is biologically part of us as part of our survival mechanism. 

 

Quote

Don’t let them off that hook. 

 

"them"? [Edit: Nevermind--you mean the "complexes"] 

Edited May 26, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

4 hours ago, shoshin said:

The day before, Musk tweeted just the graph from that article that shows a person’s mortality increases 100% when they get Covid unless they are children (where it increases maybe 25-50%). I hadn’t googled the article but thanks for that. It’s one-sided and understates the Sweden case but still good especially on the panicked groupthink that lead to the extended shutdown, though he is ignoring some other groupthink trends that ignore science (vaccines, masks). 

 

The article didn't need to discuss vaccines because it was speaking to the response of COVID.  Vaccines aren't in play for some time out, so that wouldn't have made sense to discuss Vaccines.

 

In regards to masks, didn't state an opinion one way or the other on it, (at least not to my recollection) and the point of the article was to discuss hard data.   Yes, some of it is cherry picked and you can always make a strong case with cherry picked data. With that said, the compilation of data that was provided was pretty strong.  I think we are now beyond the point of determining whether or not Sweden had the right model.  It's clear that they did, I know that there are many media sources that want to continue making the case that it hasn't, but the media is not to be trusted as we know they have their biases.

 

The whole point of these stay-at-home orders was to "flatten the curve".  What was the point to "flatten the curve"?  So that the hospital systems wouldn't be overwhelmed and that patients who needed COVID care would have the care they needed.  In that regards, even at Sweden's peak, their health systems had plenty of capacity to do so.  That's it, that was the point.  Sweden accomplished that, Check mate.

 

Here is how Sweden compares on deaths per capita against some other European hard hit countries.

 

 

Here is which age demographic has died from Sweden - around 90% of the deaths were under the age of 70.

 

 

 

And this chart shows that 70% of the deaths have come from Nursing homes.  This has been Sweden's biggest failure, similar to that of New York but even worse in raw numbers.  If they had gotten this under control to a much more acceptable number this would have dramatically effected their raw death totals.   -   The people who were out and about in Sweden were not the ones' who suffered these casualties.  It was the sickest and most vulnerable who were already practicing stay-at-home practices due to their age and health conditions.

 

 

 

 

And This was an interesting observation by Norway's Chief Health officer:

 

Quote

 

Camille Stoltenberg, the agency's Director General, told state broadcaster NRK that the agency's analysis now suggested less restrictive measures would have been sufficient. 

 

"Our assessment now....is that we could possibly have achieved the same effects and avoided some of the unfortunate impacts by not locking down, but by instead keeping open but with infection control measures," she said. 

 

The institute reported at the start of this month that the reproduction number had already fallen to as low as 1.1 even before the lockdown was announced on March 12.

 

This suggests that it would not have required heavy-handed measures such as school closures to bring it below 1 and so push the number of infected people in the country into a gradual decline. 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Magox

[Deranged Rhino]

13 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

It is human nature to live in fear. It is biologically part of us as part of our survival mechanism. 

 

 

You are all the way wrong. "Live in fear" is an extreme position, and it's not backed by anything in our nature. If human's natural state was to live in fear, we never would have explored the world, space, or evolved. The fact you think it's human nature to be afraid of a virus which OVER 99% recover from shows how badly you've been misled. 

 

 

 

Fear is how they control us. It's not our natural state. 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[shoshin]

6 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You are all the way wrong. "Live in fear" is an extreme position, and it's not backed by anything in our nature. If human's natural state was to live in fear, we never would have explored the world, space, or evolved. The fact you think it's human nature to be afraid of a virus which OVER 99% recover from shows how badly you've been misled. 

 

 

 

Fear is how they control us. It's not our natural state. 

 

Humans before the most recent generations lived because they saw a stick in the grass and moved away from it because they thought it might be a snake. Biologically, we fire up our fight/flight response at the slightest danger and are constantly on alert for danger.

 

We are not biologically wired well to live in the current safe atmosphere we live in, which is almost entirely not fraught with danger. We run at low level anxiety that is biologically very bad for us: "Zebras don't get ulcers." 

 

We are human and have the ability to push against our biology but it's still how we are naturally wired. 

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, shoshin said:

 

Humans before the most recent generations lived because they saw a stick in the grass and moved away from it because they thought it might be a snake. Biologically, we fire up our fight/flight response at the slightest danger and are constantly on alert for danger.

 

We are not biologically wired well to live in the current safe atmosphere we live in, which is almost entirely not fraught with danger. We run at low level anxiety that is biologically very bad for us: "Zebras don't get ulcers." 

 

We are human and have the ability to push against our biology but it's still how we are naturally wired. 

 

You're wrong -- and conflating flight or fight with our "natural state". 

 

And it's really sad that you're dug in on such a false premise. 

 

Fear is a control mechanism, and it's been weaponized against us. What you're doing is ignoring that artificial influence and writing it off as "natural". 

 

Edit: For clarity, I'm to trying to attack you. I'm trying to shake you out of your coma. 

[B-Man]

 

[shoshin]

7 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You're wrong -- and conflating flight or fight with our "natural state". 

 

And it's really sad that you're dug in on such a false premise. 

 

Fear is a control mechanism, and it's been weaponized against us. What you're doing is ignoring that artificial influence and writing it off as "natural". 

 

Edit: For clarity, I'm to trying to attack you. I'm trying to shake you out of your coma. 

 

Pretty condescending. 

 

As an animal, we are wired to sense danger. That's something we can and do overcome often but it's a survival instinct hard-wired into us. Read some biological evolution books if you want to read up on it. The very good news is that as humans, we never have to do the things we are wired to do. So you can go climb a mountain, move towards the stick in the grass, etc. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by shoshin