The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Magox]

14 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Whoever develops it first will get it out through a global production chain. That is certain. Your vaccine may be made in the US, India, or France--no matter who develops it. 

 

 

I'll feel pride but I suspect no matter what company does it first, it will have been developed by an international team. 

 

 

In science? Have you been reading the thread here about people who won't take it, don't believe masks work? 

 

 

 

It is more dangerous than the common flu and puts many more people in the hospital and for long periods of time than the flu. You take it to protect others whose immune systems are compromised, where the vaccine doesn't take, or who are neglected. The vaccine helps create the herd immunity without putting yourself at risk of getting it and spreading it. 

 

People not taking vaccines are why the measles and other once-nearly-eradicated diseases are returning. I encourage you to read up on how important vaccines are. 

 

 

 

No, it will not go out in a global chain all at the same time.  You are woefully mistaken.  That's not how it works.  They don't just ramp up from 100 vaccines to hundreds of millions overnight.  It is a long process and as they are being created the ones that are created initially will go for their citizens first.   If you don't think that is how it's going to work, then you are awfully naive. 

 

Secondly, it is not more dangerous than the flu for people under age 65.  That has already been established by the data.  Have you not been paying attention?  Again -

 

You either believe in the data or you don't.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Yesterday's problems which were real are not today's problems. We probably have enough active-case testing. Now we need to get the rapid testing together--the accuracy of those tests will have to be fixed first, then the availability next.  

 

The Oxford team is testing more widely. Both are developing quickly.

 

I also doubt we have much of a read on what is happening in China, where some vaccine could pop up too. 

 

 

Just admit it, you've been wrong quite a few times.

Edited May 18, 2020 by Magox

[Cinga]

4 hours ago, shoshin said:

That merger of the anti science movement where left and right are the same. 

 

Don't confuse anti-vax with anti-science. Many people against vaccinations are very intelligent people who feel the risk is not worth the reward. 

And for the record, I've never been anti-vax myself, even getting the annual flu shot, however I have no problem with someone else that makes that choice for themselves

[Magox]

11 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

No, it will not go out in a global chain all at the same time.  You are woefully mistaken.  That's not how it works.  They don't just ramp up from 100 vaccines to hundreds of millions overnight.  It is a long process and as they are being created the ones that are created initially will go for their citizens first.   If you don't think that is how it's going to work, then you are awfully naive. 

 

Secondly, it is not more dangerous than the flu for people under age 65.  That has already been established by the data.  Have you not been paying attention?  Again -

 

You either believe in the data or you don't.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@plenzmd1

 

We were having this  discussion the other day.  Look at the USA FLU/Pneumonia vs COVID chart.  This is compiled using data by the CDC btw.

 

Adjusted Life years Lost 

 

This is a very interesting stat.  It goes back to our previous conversation.  What this stat shows is based off the median age of life expectancy in the U.S - it places it up against Flu deaths vs COVID 19 deaths.   And what this chart shows is that people who die from the Flu there are more years of life being lost than COVID during the same time periods with similar levels of mortalities.   In other words, the people who are dying the vast majority of them were at the end of their natural lives.

 

Fascinating stuff. 

 

Also, not sure if you caught the explanation of what Colorado did.  They reduced their deaths by 25% due to COVID.  They determined that even though some of these people have COVID, they concluded that the death wasn't due to COVID but other conditions.   This is something that I think has to be investigated further and I believe it is part of the friction that Dr. Birx has with the CDC.  The CDC just wants to not only count ALL COVID infected patients who die to count as COVID but even "possible's".     Even though it doesn't go into detail what Dr Birx's frustrations with the way they are tallying up death counts.  My hunch tells me that she agrees with Colorado's stance.   Obviously I don't know the details of how Colorado is making this determination but if we want to truly understand the VIRUS it is imperative that we get the correct data.  If you have someone in Hospice care that was on their last days or weeks and they die of COVID or if they had terminal illness or anything along those lines and they pass away while they had COVID, that shouldn't be counted as a COVID related death.   

 

This is not a matter of trying to make the stats look better, this is a matter of data integrity and better understanding the Virus.

[shoshin]

44 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

No, it will not go out in a global chain all at the same time.  You are woefully mistaken.  That's not how it works.  They don't just ramp up from 100 vaccines to hundreds of millions overnight.  It is a long process and as they are being created the ones that are created initially will go for their citizens first.   If you don't think that is how it's going to work, then you are awfully naive. 

 

Secondly, it is not more dangerous than the flu for people under age 65.  That has already been established by the data.  Have you not been paying attention?  Again -

 

You either believe in the data or you don't.

 

Fatalities, which are higher for Covid, remain not the thing we need to watch for most of us. Hospitalization will be the driver of how we reopen. Always has been. 

 

 

You can't ignore this as the biggest factor in reopening. 

 

Regarding the vaccine production, it will take place all over the world. No one country is likely to hog the first 100M doses. The first batch of 1000, I guess might get preferential treatment of some kind. And though it's irrelevant to this particular discussion about how the vaccines will be distributed, I was in the vaccine production business building facilities that produced them for several years but what I did at that time is not relevant to how these are set up to be produced. The Gates- and others- vaccine incubators will get this out much faster.

 

You won't have the opportunity not to take the vaccine for a while because you're a lower priority (as am I). 

 

It will be interesting to see what gov't sectors (military and schools in particular), businesses, and companies mandate the vaccine. I am sure the military will require it and probably school districts too. Others I'm less sure of but I expect those working with older populations or confined populations may be required to be vaccinated as a condition of employment--same with HCWs and their families. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by shoshin

[BillStime]

 

[Magox]

23 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Fatalities, which are higher for Covid, remain not the thing we need to watch for most of us. Hospitalization will be the driver of how we reopen. Always has been. 

 

 

You can't ignore this as the biggest factor in reopening. 

 

Regarding the vaccine production, it will take place all over the world. No one country is likely to hog the first 100M doses. The first batch of 1000, I guess might get preferential treatment of some kind. And though it's irrelevant to this particular discussion about how the vaccines will be distributed, I was in the vaccine production business building facilities that produced them for several years but what I did at that time is not relevant to how these are set up to be produced. The Gates- and others- vaccine incubators will get this out much faster.

 

You won't have the opportunity not to take the vaccine for a while because you're a lower priority (as am I). 

 

It will be interesting to see what gov't sectors (military and schools in particular), businesses, and companies mandate the vaccine. I am sure the military will require it and probably school districts too. Others I'm less sure of but I expect those working with older populations or confined populations may be required to be vaccinated as a condition of employment--same with HCWs and their families. 

 

It is not higher for COVID for people under 65.   I just showed it to you from the CDC and from verified hospital data from the Netherlands and Spain.

 

If you aren't going to accept the data then there is no more use talking to you on this matter. 

 

And please provide me that source, because it completely contradicts the outcomes and hospital Spanish and Dutch data.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Magox

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It is not higher for COVID for people under 65.   I just showed it to you from the CDC and from verified hospital data from the Netherlands and Spain.

 

If you aren't going to accept the data then there is no more use talking to you on this matter. 

 

And please provide me that source, because it completely contradicts the outcomes and the Spanish and Dutch data.

 

 

 

The source for the hospitalization graphic above and reproduced below is the CDC, as compiled in this article. There's really no argument about hospitalization rate being much different with Covid-19 than the flu. Your NL data was just about hospitalization rates with Covid, it didn't compare it to the flu.  

 

Plenty of other data sources for the same including another CDC article.

 

Using the existing infrastructure of two respiratory virus surveillance platforms, COVID-NET was implemented to produce robust, weekly, age-stratified hospitalization rates using standardized data collection methods. These data are being used, along with data from other surveillance platforms (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview.html), to monitor COVID-19 disease activity and severity in the United States. During the first month of surveillance, COVID-NET hospitalization rates ranged from 0.1 per 100,000 population in persons aged 5–17 years to 17.2 per 100,000 population in adults aged ≥85 years, whereas cumulative influenza hospitalization rates during the first 4 weeks of each influenza season (epidemiologic weeks 40–43) over the past 5 seasons have ranged from 0.1 in persons aged 5–17 years to 2.2–5.4 in adults aged ≥85 years

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Magox]

From the CDC

 

Table 2: Estimated rates of influenza-associated disease outcomes, per 100,000, by age group — United States, 2018-2019 influenza season

	Illness rate		Medical visit rate		Hospitalization rate		Mortality rate
Age group	Estimate	95% UI	Estimate	95% UI	Estimate	95% UI	Estimate	95% UI
0-4 yrs	18,339.50	(12,652.8, 36,341.4)	12,287.50	(8,419.3, 24,332.1)	127.9	(88.2,   253.4)	1.3	(0.4, 3.6)
5-17 yrs	14,300.10	(11,248.5, 19,478.6)	7,436.10	(5,724.0, 10,106.0)	39.2	(30.8,    53.4)	0.4	(0.1, 1.2)
18-49 yrs	8,621.50	(7,293.1, 11,602.9)	3,190.00	(2,532.0,  4,388.9)	48.4	(40.9,    65.1)	1.8	(1.0, 4.2)
50-64 yrs	14,627.10	(10,422.7, 24,952.5)	6,289.60	(4,295.4, 10,903.7)	155.1	(110.5,   264.6)	9	(5.6, 21.4)
65+ yrs	5,861.40	(3,831.5, 11,502.1)	3,282.40	(2,093.2,  6,475.1)	532.9	(348.3, 1,045.6)	48.7	(34.1, 78.9)

 

 

This shows that hospitalization rates for ages 50-65 is 155.1 out of every 100k for the influenza  The link to where you can see that from the CDC is here.

 

Here is the COVID related data: 

 

The COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) conducts population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in select counties participating in the Emerging Infections Program (EIP) and states participating in the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Project (IHSP). COVID-NET-estimated hospitalization rates are updated weekly.

A total of 19,637 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were reported by sites between March 1, 2020, and May 9, 2020. The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 60.5 per 100,000 population. Among the 0-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-49 years, 50-64 years, and ≥ 65 years age groups, the highest rate of hospitalization is among adults aged  65 years (192.4 per 100,000), followed by adults aged 50-64 years (94.4 per 100,000) and adults aged 18-49 years (32.6 per 100,000).

 

resize iconView Larger

 

Within the 18-49 years and ≥ 65 years age groups, the hospitalization rates increased with increasing age.

Age Group	Cumulative Rate per 100,000 Population
Overall	60.5
0-4 years	3.0
5-17 years	1.4
18-49 years	32.6
18-29 years	15.4
30-39 years	32.0
40-49 years	55.6
50-64 years	94.4
65+ years	192.4
65-74 years	141.2
75-84 years	232.0
85+ years	352.0

 

 

Here is the CDC Link

[Magox]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

The source for the hospitalization graphic above and reproduced below is the CDC, as compiled in this article. There's really no argument about hospitalization rate being much different with Covid-19 than the flu. Your NL data was just about hospitalization rates with Covid, it didn't compare it to the flu.  

 

Plenty of other data sources for the same including another CDC article.

 

Using the existing infrastructure of two respiratory virus surveillance platforms, COVID-NET was implemented to produce robust, weekly, age-stratified hospitalization rates using standardized data collection methods. These data are being used, along with data from other surveillance platforms (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview.html), to monitor COVID-19 disease activity and severity in the United States. During the first month of surveillance, COVID-NET hospitalization rates ranged from 0.1 per 100,000 population in persons aged 5–17 years to 17.2 per 100,000 population in adults aged ≥85 years, whereas cumulative influenza hospitalization rates during the first 4 weeks of each influenza season (epidemiologic weeks 40–43) over the past 5 seasons have ranged from 0.1 in persons aged 5–17 years to 2.2–5.4 in adults aged ≥85 years

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now I get why that data you sent was completely lacking in context and contrary to all the other data that was out there.  Look at the time period they chose.

 

They chose a particular small time period, and not even the most recent year..  That's odd that they would do that, makes me question their motives.   The data that I posted above goes to even more recent data throughout a 12 month time period.  Which in this case works perfectly fine because it is based off of per 100k and is based off of a much larger subset of data as opposed to a tiny 6 week window where the sample size is smaller and data is more volatile. 

 

 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

Sugar Nipples encouraging all major sports teams in NY to plan on starting the season without fans. Said the state will help them make this happen in any way they can, but bottom line is he wants them to start seasons.

 

Oh, an apparently Sugar Nipples is a Bills fan. Who knew??

Edited May 18, 2020 by MILFHUNTER#518

[meazza]

1 minute ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

Sugar Nipples encouraging all major sports teams in NY to plan on starting the season without fans. Said the state will help them make this happen in any way they can, but bottom line is he wants them to start seasons.

 

Oh, an apparently Sugar Nipples is a Bills fan. Who knew??

 

Why do you call him sugar nipples?

 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

2 hours ago, spartacus said:

 

a COVID-19 vaccine will be available on the same time line as the vaccines for the prior severe outbreaks of SARS, MERS, H1-N1

 

I am confused, I heard from a CDC  "expert" last week that there has never been an effective  vaccine ever developed for a coronavirus...

[shoshin]

36 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Now I get why that data you sent was completely lacking in context and contrary to all the other data that was out there.  Look at the time period they chose.

 

You can only compare those windows because COVID-19 does not have a yearly track record to draw upon. 

 

Your above post with the charts compares the hospitalization rate for an entire flu season vs the brief amount of time it took for Covid to fire up. If anything, it shows how brutal the effect has been and will continue to be regarding covid hospitalizations. If you give this some deeper thought, you will understand the apples to oranges your post is comparing. 

 

There is a reason why not only in NY but also in Italy and other countries, the hospitals were bogged down. It has to do with rate of hospitalization AND duration of stay. The later is why Remdisivir is important. 

 

Quote

They chose a particular small time period, and not even the most recent year..  That's odd that they would do that, makes me question their motives.   The data that I posted above goes to even more recent data throughout a 12 month time period.  Which in this case works perfectly fine because it is based off of per 100k and is based off of a much larger subset of data as opposed to a tiny 6 week window where the sample size is smaller and data is more volatile. 

 

 

 

See above. Covid doesn't have a year of data to compare to an entire flu season, and when you consider it started from case 1 in December 2019, it's staggering how much more dangerous it is. 

 

Note: Let's have a dialog, eh? I guess you can keep trying to be "the man" and put me down but I've not done the same. I'm fairly certain you're not a PhD research epidemiologist but just a guy like most of us, looking at data we were not looking at 5 months ago. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by shoshin

[MILFHUNTER#518]

Just now, meazza said:

 

Why do you call him sugar nipples?

 

Because he wears nipple bars, got busted in a presser back in March.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/03/31/andrew-cuomos-nipples-take-our-minds-off-coronavirus/amp/

[meazza]

1 minute ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

Because he wears nipple bars, got busted in a presser back in March.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/03/31/andrew-cuomos-nipples-take-our-minds-off-coronavirus/amp/

 

I'm sorry I asked.

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 

 

 

See above. Covid doesn't have a year of data to compare to an entire flu season, and when you consider it started from case 1 in December 2019, it's staggering how much more dangerous it is. 

 

You can say it to you're blue in the face it won't change the fact that it's not.  The data does not back up your assertion.

[shoshin]

8 minutes ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

 encouraging all major sports teams in NY to plan on starting the season without fans.

 

Seems like a given. If a night club in Korea can generate a few hundred cases, stadiums full of screaming fans and finger foods will do a much better job. 

 

I am curious to see what the Bills do with my season ticket $$.  

[MILFHUNTER#518]

Just now, shoshin said:

 

Seems like a given. If a night club in Korea can generate a few hundred cases, stadiums full of screaming fans and finger foods will do a much better job. 

 

I am curious to see what the Bills do with my season ticket $$.  

Yeah, ALL the teams in all sports as well. I have a feeling with the lack of ticket and concession revenue, they are going to jack up broadcast rates, therefore no more free Sunday Ticket, Center Ice, etc.

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

You can say it to you're blue in the face it won't change the fact that it's not.  The data does not back up your assertion.

 

Your own chart from the CDC says it:

 

 

That's an entire season of outcomes. 

 

You can only compare a window if you want to compare apples to apples. Otherwise, you'd have to project an entire year of Covid, and if it was a truly honest comparison, it wouldn't start from a single case in December 2019 but you'd project starting from tens of thousands of cases starting in the fall.

 

 

[Magox]

9 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Your own chart from the CDC says it:

 

 

That's an entire season of outcomes. 

 

You can only compare a window if you want to compare apples to apples. Otherwise, you'd have to project an entire year of Covid, and if it was a truly honest comparison, it wouldn't start from a single case in December 2019 but you'd project starting from tens of thousands of cases starting in the fall.

 

 

 

 

No, because COVID 19 and Influenza don't run on parallel tracks.  This goes by the aggregate total of "influenza seasons", which is a more complete data subset.

 

And when you take this into consideration along with the higher mortality rates with the flu for those under the age of 65, especially so for those under 50, then it's clear that COVID produces not only less hospitalizations, ICU's but deaths as well than COVID for that age group.  

 

Even if you think this data is not fully representative of what you believe it to be, the data is clear enough to show that at a very minimum it's not that much more dangerous than the flu for the aforementioned age groups.   

 

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Magox