The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Boatdrinks]

49 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 I don't think we are going to see the 25, 20, 15, 10, or even 5% in the general population for a long time. 

 

I like NYS's metrics. I was not familiar with how they were gating the reopening except that it was similar to the Trump CDC guidelines:

 

 

I don’t like these metrics because rate of hospitalization / deaths is due largely to an unhealthy population, and we are in a region where vitamin D deficiency is also common. We can have plenty of hospital capacity and still not meet the benchmark because the comorbidities are baked into a segment of the population. 

[snafu]

5 hours ago, Magox said:

So this was said

 

Here is the video https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4874851/user-clip-disinfecting-trains

 

@snafu @plenzmd1  I think we were talking about this 

 

58 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 I don't think we are going to see the 25, 20, 15, 10, or even 5% in the general population for a long time. 

 

I like NYS's metrics. I was not familiar with how they were gating the reopening except that it was similar to the Trump CDC guidelines:

 

 

 

 

That quote from the Governor and that chart showing the 7 criteria only tell me that NYC and LI aren’t opening up any time soon ☹️.

If the city is relying on the MTA to get it’s act together, we’re doomed.  The MTA deserves its own thread. 

 

 

[shoshin]

8 hours ago, snafu said:

 

 

 

That quote from the Governor and that chart showing the 7 criteria only tell me that NYC and LI aren’t opening up any time soon ☹️.

If the city is relying on the MTA to get it’s act together, we’re doomed.  The MTA deserves its own thread. 

 

 

The big northern cities will be the hardest to reopen. Public transit and tight living will also help them get to immunity sooner. But those places are going to be hot for a while. 

Edited May 11, 2020 by shoshin

[fansince88]

18 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

I'm talking about in our country, but you knew that.

He had to drag it to china because he knew he was clueless.

[Reality Check]

At this point in time, I find it a little odd that with so many people who have recovered from this, why there aren't more news stories interviewing these recovery stories. We could all use some positive stories about beating this disease, and yet there is almost nothing. I am sure it is nothing of course.

[snafu]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

The big northern cities will be the hardest to reopen. Public transit and tight living will also help them get to immunity sooner. But those places are going to be hot for a while. 

 

Nassau County Executive is saying, without any details whatsoever, that they’re not likely to be reopening until the end of June.

We are going into our eighth week of “Pause”. The end of June would be more than 14 weeks, if Ms. Curran’s prediction comes true.

[shoshin]

Just now, snafu said:

 

Nassau County Executive is saying, without any details whatsoever, that they’re not likely to be reopening until the end of June.

We are going into our eighth week of “Pause”. The end of June would be more than 14 weeks, if Ms. Curran’s prediction comes true.

 

Most of the NE shut down at the same time. We shut down 3 days before NYC, with no end in sight...the only possibility to phase 1 in SE PA is June 4. 

[snafu]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Most of the NE shut down at the same time. We shut down 3 days before NYC, with no end in sight...the only possibility to phase 1 in SE PA is June 4. 

 

Well then perhaps this is the time for the Federal Gov’t or the governors of the states in the NE corridor (D.C. to Boston) to put out a regional plan with their own, uniform reopening rules that are separate from the rest of the country.  And I don’t mean slower, I mean different set of rules.

[shoshin]

5 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

Well then perhaps this is the time for the Federal Gov’t or the governors of the states in the NE corridor (D.C. to Boston) to put out a regional plan with their own, uniform reopening rules that are separate from the rest of the country.  And I don’t mean slower, I mean different set of rules.

 

Dream a dream. The CDC guidelines are out there. No one is following them, though NYS is closest.

 

PA has a much more restrictive reopening threshold that the SE PA area is not even close to the requirement set by the governor. Philly is running at 10x the goal...surrounding counties at 3-4x.

[SoCal Deek]

Or maybe we could just socially distance old people? 

[Chef Jim]

11 hours ago, Magox said:

 

That’s an interesting point, I do know that people who are older and sicker are more at risk to the regular flu and often times develop pneumonia and die.   The more I read about the virus the more I think that the biggest difference between the two is that this virus is more contagious and there is no vaccine to limit its spread.  I’m not saying they are the same just that from what I’m seeing the things I mentioned are the two biggest differences.

My mom (94) worries every year during flu season. She doesn’t seem worried much about coronavirus due to all the precautions in place to protect her. Did anyone wear a mask during regular flu season in the past?  This is interesting. 

[The Poojer]

see my answer to your social experiment

 

20 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

Report from the front:

 

1.  On our many walks I’m noticing a vast majority of the people are not wearing masks out in wide open spaces.  That number is down quite a bit.  
 

2.  I would like to to a social experiment to see why type of person, what type of personality, what type of upbringing prompts people to choose to or not to wear a mask out in public.  Mostly wide open spaces. 

I don't wear a mask if i am outside, and if there are people around i do my best to maintain at least 6 feet of distance.  If i am in line at wegmans waiting to get into the store, i put my mask on when it's my turn to enter the store, and i don't use hand sanitizer that is there at the entrance.  The second I leave the wegmans doors, mask comes off and eventually gets hung back on the rear-view mirror
 

3.  Saw a homeless person. We don’t see many in this part of SoCal. Anyway It got me to thinking. It’s quite interesting that a government that prefers we stay at home and use precautions to protect the health of others appears to have no problem with tens of thousands of people living, peeing and pooping on the streets that are a major threat to, you got it, the health of others. 
 

[SoCal Deek]

This is a really big country! The response to this virus has been, and continues to be, way too holistic. We simply don’t have a problem out here in California...and we haven’t since this all started. 

[plenzmd1]

 

19 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I do not think anyone here is is defending WHO or China, but a German newspaper has this story:
 

China pressured WHO to delay global coronavirus warning: report
 

Chinese President Xi Jinping pressured the director of the World Health Organization in January to hold off on issuing a global warning about the coronavirus outbreak, according to a report in a German newspaper.
 

The Jan. 21 conversation between Jinping and WHO leader Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was reported in Der Spiegel, which cited intelligence from Germany’s federal intelligence service, known as the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND).
 

The report published over the weekend said Xi urged the WHO chief to “delay a global warning” about the pandemic and hold back information on human-to-human transmission of the virus.
 

</snip>

I saw some reporting yesterday that the tome lines reported Der Speigal do not add up, will attempt to find that again and post. Buty do not take this report as gospel.

17 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

 

Where has this "mouthpiece" position of yours established as fact?

All i can say is i think we all have "confirmation bias" when it comes to media. I have always accepted most media outlets have a left of center lean, that is not a new phenenomum, been that way for over 150 years in this country. We tend to watch/listen to folks who have simiilar leans to our views, and that is always how it will be.

 

But, now that I have an an "opinion" on this virus that is opposite of the left ( for the most part) , it is really frustrating to see only side of the so called facts being presented. Everytime i watch the news, no matter what network..they breathlessly report new cases without an mention on percentage of tests. They never report on states that seeing decreases, only areas seeing increases. They never report on the demographics of the people that are dying. 

I could go on and on, but on this story it is very easy to see the slant , ney propaganda, the MSM is pushing to promate clicks and inspire fear.

 

11 hours ago, Magox said:

 

I don’t want to minimize anyone’s situation and if there is someone reading this that fits into this category or close to it please don’t think that I’m suggesting that people who do are valued any less.   I empathize with people especially the thought that many of these people who pass away are separated from their families and are alone in their death beds.  The thought of that horrifies me.

 

But from a public policy point of view this has to be considered when you have governments creating these other residual effects of the shut downs that are causing younger people to not get the care they need for heart and cancer related afflictions that is also leading to deaths.  
 

 

I have found it especially frustrating that this conversation is not being had. The concept of the "greater good" has been completely abandoned in this country.  

 

One key piece for the nursing deaths, which i believe is still over 50% of deaths..Average stay in a nursing home is 5 1/2 months, in a state run facility, bout 3 months. Stays do not end with someone going home. 

 

Maybe i am just getting old too, and accept that death is part of life. That tacking on two months at end of life just doesn't negate all the negative damage being done to our society as a whole. Of course we do eberything we can to protect the most vulnerable that make up a very , very small minority, but not at the expense of putting the vast vast majority at risk of permanant damge

[SoCal Deek]

The shocking part is the really poor communication from BOTH the administration and of course, the Media. One would think that after four months, with 80,000 deaths and a million infected that we’d now have REALLY good data on where the virus, who gets infected, who dies, and/or gets hospitalized, and even how you get infected. I believe they actually have that data and simply aren’t informing the American people or using the data to create good policy. Shame on them! They’ve had way more than enough time to develop future trending. 

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

 

 

 

I have found it especially frustrating that this conversation is not being had. The concept of the "greater good" has been completely abandoned in this country.  

 

One key piece for the nursing deaths, which i believe is still over 50% of deaths..Average stay in a nursing home is 5 1/2 months, in a state run facility, bout 3 months. Stays do not end with someone going home. 

 

Maybe i am just getting old too, and accept that death is part of life. That tacking on two months at end of life just doesn't negate all the negative damage being done to our society as a whole. Of course we do eberything we can to protect the most vulnerable that make up a very , very small minority, but not at the expense of putting the vast vast majority at risk of permanant damge

 

 

Thank you for this post!

 

I didn't even research what you are saying in regards to the average stay in nursing homes being 5 1/2 months.  Not to sound cold and callous but frankly speaking, I would say that the average profile of the COVID death of 80 years old with 2 or more comorbidities probably has an even shorter time span than the 5 1/2 months that you cited.   

 

And with today's media and political environment there is no "greater good" discussions that can be had.  It's impossible.   Even if politicians and the media decided to all of a sudden begin discussing/covering this virus in a serious manner, the mental damage has been done.  There are too many people who are suffering through a sort of trauma that has been promulgated via the media and the emotive equation now trumps the logical state for too many people.   Anecdotally speaking, I can't even begin to have these sort of conversations with people that I know on Social media.  They simply block out any news that can be construed as positive.  They don't want to talk about it.   I will probably create a thread about this because I do believe that there is sort of a stockholm syndrome effect that is occurring through many people's minds.  Where they live in this cocoon of fear and they don't want to leave it no matter what the circumstances dictate.  Sort of like survivors that suffer the stockholm syndrome, after a while they begin to care for their captor and when given the opportunity to escape they don't.   Not saying the two are the exact same, and I have given this a lot of thought but I do think there is a sort of a connection in mentality between the two.  Except this time the captor is the media which drives fear.  And even though when presented factual data to alleviate this fear, the survivors which in this case are the ones who are living in this condition due to the virus decide to remain in their cocoon of fear.

 

 

[Reality Check]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The shocking part is the really poor communication from BOTH the administration and of course, the Media. One would think that after four months, with 80,000 deaths and a million infected that we’d now have REALLY good data on where the virus, who gets infected, who dies, and/or gets hospitalized, and even how you get infected. I believe they actually have that data and simply aren’t informing the American people or using the data to create good policy. Shame on them! They’ve had way more than enough time to develop future trending. 

Excellent points. As usual, we are treated like mushrooms.

[plenzmd1]

@Magox, interesting comparison to Stockholm Syndrome..think you may be correct .

[ALF]

Feds spent nearly $100B on pandemic readiness, health security in decade leading up to coronavirus crisis

 

Over the past decade, the U.S. government spent nearly $100 billion on preparation for major health crises including pandemics, according to a 2018 paper on such funding -- though the coronavirus outbreak still had Washington and states across the country scrambling to muster supplies and respond when it hit.

 

Numbers from a paper in the academic journal "Health Security" released in late 2018 indicate that the government spent between $10 billion and $12 billion each year from 2010 to 2018 across several agencies on programs that contribute to "biosecurity," the management of "pandemic influenza and emerging infectious diseases," and "multiple-hazard and general preparedness" programs that assist in readiness for and response to different types of health threats, including diseases like the coronavirus.

 

Democrats have countered that GOP-driven budget cuts early in the decade squeezed areas like the stockpile of personal protective equipment (PPE).

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pandemic-preparedness-spending

 

That darn Obama

[BuffaloHokie13]

21 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

 I would like to to a social experiment to see why type of person, what type of personality, what type of upbringing prompts people to choose to or not to wear a mask out in public.  Mostly wide open spaces. 

I'll do my best here.

 

I'm 32, single, live alone in a condo building with ~250 units, and I haven't stopped commuting to work yet. Closest family is 6.5 hours away, so most interactions are by phone. My building is pretty affordable for the area, so it has attracted a population of opposite ends of the spectrum (young people getting into their first home, and older people who are on fixed income and don't want to be responsible for a yard or other maintenance). Out of respect for the older residents in my building, I put on a mask before leaving my condo and I keep it on until I get in my car. I also use the stairs exclusively to avoid touching elevator buttons. The only other place I wear a mask is the grocery store, though I suppose that would apply to any store. Upbringing was fairly conservative. Both parents are military, dad was also a police officer. Very comfortable around firearms as long as the people with them are well trained. Church every Sunday, pasta feast after.