The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Magox]

Testing and Contact tracing will help mitigate the spread some but it's not nearly the panacea for this as being touted.   It's way overstated.

 

 

Why?

 

Because the majority of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.  Just to give you a glimpse of what I'm talking about look at the Pork Plant in Missouri.

 

Quote

373 employees and contract workers at Triumph Foods in Buchanan County, Missouri, have tested positive for coronavirus. All of them were asymptomatic, according to a press release from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.

 

Or what about the 4 prisons in Arkansas, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia?

 

 

Quote

 

They started with the Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms.

“It was very surprising,” said Chambers-Smith, who oversees the state’s 28 correctional facilities.

As mass coronavirus testing expands in prisons, large numbers of inmates are showing no symptoms. In four state prison systems — Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — 96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic, according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters. That’s out of 4,693 tests that included results on symptoms.

 

 

 

 

Let's just use common sense here for a second.  These are two examples and it's a pretty large sample size, we are talking about over 4000 positive test cases where on average 97% showed no symptoms.

 

That is an astounding figure.   How in the world are you going to contact trace people effectively if such a large portion of the infected population are not showing any symptoms?

 

What?  Someone who is showing no symptoms is expected to request a test?  That's not going to happen.  At least not in large enough numbers needed for this to work.  I am highly skeptical of increased testing and contact tracing serving as an effective tool to limit the spread.   It's just not going to happen, I can tell you that with near certainty.  

 

I'm not a scientist, but I understand data, I have a knack for extrapolating it and coming to conclusions and I also have common sense.   And the data and common sense says that if the vast majority of the people who have the virus are not showing symptoms you aren't going to be able to effectively mitigate it through those means.

 

If we had been starting off with a much lower baseline to work off, like near 0 then maybe we could employ this strategy as an effective tool to mitigate it.  But we aren't, and most likely by the end of summer, we will still have more than quite a few infections.    

 

Increased testing will have a purpose, without doubt and contact tracing will help, but it won't nearly be as effective as the people who are promoting it to be.  

Edited May 6, 2020 by Magox

[shoshin]

Just now, Magox said:

Increased testing will have a purpose, without doubt and contact tracing will help, but it won't nearly be as effective as the people who are promoting it to be.  

 

Could be. I am not sure if there's been a study yet about the contagiousness of asymptomatic people. I know there have been studies of prespymptomatic people, but that may be a different thing. Maybe @Hapless Bills Fan has some insight on this: I could be nuts to think there would be a difference between asypmtomatic and presymptomatic carriers. 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

Could be. I am not sure if there's been a study yet about the contagiousness of asymptomatic people. I know there have been studies of prespymptomatic people, but that may be a different thing. Maybe @Hapless Bills Fan has some insight on this: I could be nuts to think there would be a difference between asypmtomatic and presymptomatic carriers. 

 

There have been and they are all over the place.  I think the simple fact of those two examples that I cited clearly reflects that there is strong evidence that asymptomatic carriers do indeed infect other people.  Unless you are under the belief that a handful of people went throughout the entire prison and meat plant infecting everyone else.  And I think we know that is not likely.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

12 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Only when there's still a blizzard. 

For the love of God people....if you want to stay in your house....PLEASE DO SO!  Nobody is stopping you.

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, Magox said:

Testing and Contact tracing will help mitigate the spread some but it's not nearly the panacea for this as being touted.   It's way overstated.

 

 

Why?

 

Because the majority of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.  Just to give you a glimpse of what I'm talking about look at the Pork Plant in Missouri.

 

 

Or what about the 4 prisons in Arkansas, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia?

 

 

 

 

Let's just use common sense here for a second.  These are two examples and it's a pretty large sample size, we are talking about over 4000 positive test cases where on average 97% showed no symptoms.

 

That is an astounding figure.   How in the world are you going to contact trace people effectively if such a large portion of the infected population are not showing any symptom?

 

What?  Someone who is showing no symptoms is expected to request a test?  That's not going to happen.  I am highly skeptical of increased testing and contact tracing serving as an effective tool to limit the spread.   It's just not going to happen, I can tell you that with near certainty.  

 

I'm not a scientist, but I understand data, I have a knack for extrapolating it and coming to conclusions and I also have common sense.   And the data and common sense says that if the vast majority of the people who have the virus are not showing symptoms you aren't going to be able to effectively mitigate it through those means.

 

If we had been starting off with a much lower baseline to work off, like near 0 then maybe we could employ this strategy as an effective tool to mitigate it.  But we aren't, and most likely by the end of summer, we will still have more than quite a few infections.    

 

Increased testing will have a purpose, without doubt and contact tracing will help, but it won't nearly be as effective as the people who are promoting it to be.  

 

But if 88% of the tests come back positive, and 95% were asymptomatic, they may want to double check and make sure the boxes the kits came in don't say "made in China" on them.

 

Those kind of results suggest a resampling of at least a portion of the prison population is in order.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Taro T

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

How do you feel about smoking bans in public places?

Doesn"t matter, and too involved to get into. Anyway, a lit cigarette doesn't exist in nature. Just being present somewhere, breathing in proximity to others isn't dangerous on its own. Viruses, bacteria etc exist in nature. We don't infringe on freedoms in order to avoid them. Its a matter of personal choice and risk asessment. 

[LB3]

33 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Driving bans during blizzards is just the first step on the road to communism and tyrannical rule.

 

We should ban all driving during winter due to the threat of potential blizzards flare upd. And f&*$ you if you think your rights are being taken away. It's for the protection of people walking down the street who your car could possibly maybe slide into.

[Magox]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

 

But if 88% of the tests come back positive, and 95% were asymptomatic, they may want to double check and make sure the boxes the kits came in don't say "made in China" on them.

 

Those kind of results suggest a resampling of at least a portion of the prison population is in order.

 

Maybe.  But keep in mind, they are in very confined spaces and if you look at the information that I posted earlier about how it's spread, prisons and meat packing plants would be at the top of the list of places where it would be highly transmittable.   It would spread like wildfire. 

 

Grant it, those are very high numbers of asymptomatic carriers but if you believe all the serology tests and took a means average out of them, they range anywhere from x 10 to X 75 count of the understated cases.   Which these numbers from the two examples would imply about a X 33.   So it's somewhat inline with the serology test findings.   But even if it was at the very low end of X 10, contact tracing would still not be anywhere near the solution to effectively mitigate the spread.

 

 

[snafu]

12 minutes ago, Magox said:

That is an astounding figure.   How in the world are you going to contact trace people effectively if such a large portion of the infected population are not showing any symptoms?

 

What?  Someone who is showing no symptoms is expected to request a test?  That's not going to happen.  At least not in large enough numbers needed for this to work.  I am highly skeptical of increased testing and contact tracing serving as an effective tool to limit the spread.   It's just not going to happen, I can tell you that with near certainty.  

 

I understand your point.

However, if I’m finally showing symptoms after carrying around the virus for a few days, then my family and coworkers should go get tested if I’ve had any relatively close contact with them — even if they’re asymptomatic.  And vice versa.  Even that limited approach has to be somewhat effective, no?

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

Because his job is not truth. It's narrative building for his actual owners (and it's not us). 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Deranged Rhino

[IDBillzFan]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

Enjoy you're stomping ground. Glad I stopped by to talk to such reasonable people! Enjoy. 

 

I'll never understand why you guys come over here, jump into a conversation, and when consistently confronted with an alternate point of view, you stomp the ground, grab your paddle ball and run home.

 

Can you show us on the doll where DR touched you?

 

Nut up. Hang around. Maybe you'll learn who *really* believes the country is headed for a civil war.

[Magox]

1 minute ago, snafu said:

 

I understand your point.

However, if I’m finally showing symptoms after carrying around the virus for a few days, then my family and coworkers should go get tested if I’ve had any relatively close contact with them — even if they’re asymptomatic.  And vice versa.  Even that limited approach has to be somewhat effective, no?

 

 

 

Absolutely.

 

I'm not saying that it won't help.  Just that it won't be the silver bullet solution that those that are clamoring for more testing and contract tracing make it out to be.  

 

There are just too many asymptomatic cases and by the end of the summer if you still have like 20,000 people a day testing positive or for that matter even just 5000, then that most likely means you probably have at least 40,000 actual people who are infected and heading into a more favorably cyclical time of the year in fall/winter, there is no way to effectively go after those asymptomatic people.  

 

I know people don't want to hear this but we are just going to have to live with the virus spreading again later on in the year, that's just my view.  So, lets just get those effective therapeutics in place, protect the front line workers and those that are at most risk.   The vast majority of the population have the immune systems to effectively combat this virus.

[Motorin']

4 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

I'll never understand why you guys come over here, jump into a conversation, and when consistently confronted with an alternate point of view, you stomp the ground, grab your paddle ball and run home.

 

Can you show us on the doll where DR touched you?

 

Nut up. Hang around. Maybe you'll learn who *really* believes the country is headed for a civil war.

Naw man, too much douche baggary in one day... I get it though, people get their dopamine hit from taking out their frustrations on others... Not into it as it turns out. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Motorin'

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, Motorin' said:

Naw man, too much douche baggary in one day. 

 

Again, that's your cognitive dissonance talking. It's painful to learn you've been had. But it'll pass, and you'll have a choice to make. To either get informed, or continue to trust whatever information sources you've relied on so far who've led you so far astray.

 

It's entirely up to you.

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Again, that's your cognitive dissonance talking. It's painful to learn you've been had. But it'll pass, and you'll have a choice to make. To either get informed, or continue to trust whatever information sources you've relied on so far who've led you so far astray.

 

It's entirely up to you.

 

You sound like a David Koresch want to be.

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

You sound like a David Koresch want to be.

 

There it is again -- the shift to the extreme when someone is just trying to share information with you. That's cognitive dissonance. That's your programming. 

 

You can break free from it, and become informed -- or you can continue to be what you are now. Choice is yours. 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

You sound like a David Koresch want to be.

Did you mean "wanna be"?

[snafu]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

I know people don't want to hear this but we are just going to have to live with the virus spreading again later on in the year, that's just my view.  So, lets just get those effective therapeutics in place, protect the front line workers and those that are at most risk.   The vast majority of the population have the immune systems to effectively combat this virus.

 

That’s been my view for awhile, but I was willing to wait until people got a better handle on exactly what the virus is and how it affects the body and how to effectively treat it without re-crashing healthcare systems.  I think every day brings us a lot closer to knowing how to do that. And I think it is time to slow/medium roll the reopening.

 

 

 

[Motorin']

Just now, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

Did you mean "wanna be"?

damn auto correct!

[snafu]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

damn auto correct!

 

Did you mean auto repair?