The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[KD in CA]

6 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

The headline is a fact. 

Yes, a very sensationalized one.  I guess saying ‘200 cases identified’ wouldn’t pack the same punch, huh?

 

[TPS]

44 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

A coronavirus story not making the rounds today:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/

 

....wonder why ? 

Because they quarantined a city of over 10 million people in order to prevent it from spreading at a geometric rate.  Italy just shut down its country to try to do the same.  Similar things will happen here in the hot zones--already in New Rochelle.  The administration is finally taking it serious--it took the dramatic drop in the stock market to get his attention.  Fortunately, once he made his brief comments at Monday's presser, he has been mostly muzzled on this....let the experts handle it.

 

What makes this thing so serious is the contagion factor (the R-nought #) and the incubation period--you may not show symptoms for a week.  The contagion factor is estimated at between 2-3, which means each person who gets it is infecting at least 2 more.  That is a geometric series.  As an example, If the transmission occurred every 24 hours, within 30 days 1 billion would be infected.  The only way to reduce that factor is to stop interacting--China quarantined entire cities.  Once you get the factor below 1, then you've got it under control for the most part--China has gotten to the point, so they no longer need the facilities they quickly built. 

If you don't reduce the contagion factor, then the number of people who will have a severe cases quickly inundates the health system, as is happening in Italy, which is when the # of deaths soars. 

 

The death rate is double digits for people over 70; and it is also much higher for those with cardiovascular issues, respiratory issues, diabetes, and hypertension.  The flu occurs over the entire winter, so the healthcare system is able to handle what happens; this is happening so quickly, most systems aren't prepared to handle the case loads.  At that point, the only way to slow it is to keep people quarantined for two weeks.  

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by TPS

[Buffalo_Gal]

20 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

No you are not.  Taking some rational cautionary precautions (especially for out parents/grandparents) is not to much to ask for.

 

 

My mother is 86 and she takes a yearly flu shot and takes precautions around sick people.

She still drives but limits it to good weather during the day.

She finally put away her "vanity" and uses a cane while walking.

 

These are things that "rational" people do so I don't understand why it has to be an either or of "living your life" OR "living in fear".

 

I'm a "moderate independent" who sees this country riddled with broken windows.  I believe there would be a lot less of them if

people would just curb their urges to throw so many rocks.

 

I do not wish to cause any strife in my comment it's just my way of looking at problems.

My brother from Texas (a "trumpster" for lack of another word) and I were planning to visit my mother in Buffalo come May this year.

We are holding off on the visit until we see more facts about this outbreak. 

"Rational" is  the key word.  The numbers are out  there. People panicking, clearing Costco out of toilet paper, buying masks (one time use) for $100 on eBay, canceling all sporting events/travel/work? I think the "rational" boat has sailed.

 

[Warren Zevon]

15 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Yes, a very sensationalized one.  I guess saying ‘200 cases identified’ wouldn’t pack the same punch, huh?

 

 

Were you this much of a snowflake in math class too?

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

"Rational" is  the key word.  The numbers are out  there. People panicking, clearing Costco out of toilet paper, buying masks (one time use) for $100 on eBay, canceling all sporting events/travel/work? I think the "rational" boat has sailed.

 

 

You are right, the ship has sailed but on both ends of the bell curve.

Extreme panic and extreme complacency have taken root.

 

I needed to say my piece and I'll end it with the hope that we as citizens look out for our seniors throughout this challenge. 

 

[GG]

Surprised there isn't a lot of discussion about using nasal rinses as prevention.

 

Anecdotal evidence and all,  but ever since I started using the Neil Med rinses 5 years ago, I haven't had a big flu infestation or severe colds (which I used to get every year like clock work).  Guessing that should drop the infection rate by a few points.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

 

 

[KD in CA]

4 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Were you this much of a snowflake in math class too?

Were you this much of a simpleton?  

Never mind, rhetorical question obviously.

[Foxx]

[Tiberius]

8 minutes ago, GG said:

Surprised there isn't a lot of discussion about using nasal rinses as prevention.

 

Anecdotal evidence and all,  but ever since I started using the Neil Med rinses 5 years ago, I haven't had a big flu infestation or severe colds (which I used to get every year like clock work).  Guessing that should drop the infection rate by a few points.

 

[KRC]

9 minutes ago, GG said:

Surprised there isn't a lot of discussion about using nasal rinses as prevention.

 

Anecdotal evidence and all,  but ever since I started using the Neil Med rinses 5 years ago, I haven't had a big flu infestation or severe colds (which I used to get every year like clock work).  Guessing that should drop the infection rate by a few points.

 

I would guess that anything that helps clean sinus and respiratory tracts would be beneficial. Just like other general hygiene. Let me buy stock in it first, before you make an announcement.

Edited March 11, 2020 by KRC

[Bob in Mich]

17 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

"Rational" is  the key word.  The numbers are out  there. People panicking, clearing Costco out of toilet paper, buying masks (one time use) for $100 on eBay, canceling all sporting events/travel/work? I think the "rational" boat has sailed.

 

 

It seems you keep overlooking that in the US we are just getting started with the outbreak.  The numbers that are 'no big deal' at the moment, if we lose control of the virus spread, will grow very rapidly in the coming few weeks as different regions break out.  Consider the growth/spread projections as very possible, even likely.  If localities get hit with more patients in need of ventilators than they have ventilators, deaths in America will spike, just as they have done in other countries hit by sudden spikes.

 

The local area decision makers are in a tough spot.  Being responsible for preventable human deaths can weigh pretty heavily on a person.  I know in a possible life and death situation and given what we have witnessed in locations that have lost contain, I would err on the side of caution.

 

And as for personal actions, the stockpiling is waaaay overdone by some.  Without doubt.  On the other hand, I would just remind all the fearless travelers out there that their bravado can result in harm to others that they contact on their trekking.  I know it would bother the hell out of me if the Health Dept called and said I was the apparent source of the illness to a whole lot of others.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Bob in Mich

[GG]

1 minute ago, KRC said:

 

I would guess that anything that helps clean sinus and respiratory tracts would be beneficial. Just like other general hygiene. Let me buy stock in it first, before you make an announcement.

 

Run to Costco first to hoard up on it.

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, GG said:

 

Run to Costco first to hoard up on it.

Costco is empty.

[mead107]

Was at Walmart this morning and Tylenol Advil aspirin shelves were empty

 

they did have toilet paper. Stopped in to get mousetrap. 

[GG]

 

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Costco is empty.

 

Hah, the Mrs just texted me if I needed another box

[Warren Zevon]

9 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Was at Walmart this morning and Tylenol Advil aspirin shelves were empty

 

they did have toilet paper. Stopped in to get mousetrap. 

 

Went to KB Toys and they were all out of Mousetrap

 

fkin Dems and their panic

[keepthefaith]

16 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Was at Walmart this morning and Tylenol Advil aspirin shelves were empty

 

they did have toilet paper. Stopped in to get mousetrap. 

 

We have at least 100 rolls of TP here at the office so what a relief that is.   Still haven't figured out though why the masses need so much of it.  I haven't read that months of diarrhea is a symptom of this thing. 

[US Egg]

30 minutes ago, TPS said:

Because they quarantined a city of over 10 million people in order to prevent it from spreading at a geometric rate.  Italy just shut down its country to try to do the same.  Similar things will happen here in the hot zones--already in New Rochelle.  The administration is finally taking it serious--it took the dramatic drop in the stock market to get his attention.  Fortunately, once he made his brief comments at Monday's presser, he has been mostly muzzled on this....let the experts handle it.

 

What makes this thing so serious is the contagion factor (the R-nought #) and the incubation period--you may not show symptoms for a week.  The contagion factor is estimated at between 2-3, which means each person who gets it is infecting at least 2 more.  That is a geometric series.  As an example, If the transmission occurred every 24 hours, within 30 days 1 billion would be infected.  The only way to reduce that factor is to stop interacting--China quarantined entire cities.  Once you get the factor below 1, then you've got it under control for the most part--China has gotten to the point, so they no longer need the facilities they quickly built. 

If you don't reduce the contagion factor, then the number of people who will have a severe cases quickly inundates the health system, as is happening in Italy, which is when the # of deaths soars. 

 

The death rate is double digits for people over 70; and it is also much higher for those with cardiovascular issues, respiratory issues, diabetes, and hypertension.  The flu occurs over the entire winter, so the healthcare system is able to handle what happens; this is happening so quickly, most systems aren't prepared to handle the case loads.  At that point, the only way to slow it is to keep people quarantined for two weeks.

Quite the answer there.

 

Maybe I didn't make it clear what I was asking. 

 

I wondered why the closing of the 16 temporary hospitals in Wuhan area that handled 13,000 coronavirus patients wasn't more newsworthy than a blip. 

1 hour ago, I am the egg man said:

A coronavirus story not making the rounds today:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/

 

....wonder why ? 

.....but thank you for your participation.

[Tiberius]

SUNY Schools to close, go to distance learning 

 

https://www.wivb.com/news/new-york/gov-cuomo-gives-another-update-on-the-coronavirus/