The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Buffalo_Gal]

16 minutes ago, Foxx said:

the are going to be using monoclonail antibodies (mAbs) to attack the virus. monoclonial antibodies are man made proteins synthesized from cloned immune cells,. this therapy is a popular cancer treatment.

 

The advent and rise of monoclonal antibodies

Well now, that certainly cleared that up.
 

[keepthefaith]

Illinois Covid-19 deaths each day.  Look at the ages of these people.  I love my older relatives and friends but we can't keep the economy shut down any longer.  Recommend that retirees stay distant and let the rest of us get on with life.

 

http://www.dph.illinois.gov/news/202004

 

 

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I think Birx and Fauci agree on the Trump guidelines. The guidelines are not being met to move into phase 1 in most places yet, even those that are about to open. Just noting this for the record. 

 

 

The southern states are doing well, which is probable weather driven. So it's a little hard to say the NE should follow their lead just because they may do better. I'm not arguing your point, just that what's good for Texas may not be good for NY. I do think regional opening based on data is the way to proceed. 

 

Just now, Magox said:

 

 

I agree with this....The Federal government has already made their guidelines, so now that those are the guidelines I think all states should follow suit once they meet the criteria.

 

Clearly states in the south have an advantage over the northern states as do the states with more sparse population density over the more populous ones.

 

The southern cities, excepting for a few like New Orleans, which has severe geographic limitations also are more spread out than their northeastern counterparts.  Which also should help them with "social distancing" relative to NYC.  Places like Houston are far more suburb-like than somewhere like Boston even though the metro population is greater.

 

Will be really interesting to see what the experts come up with for why NYC got hit soooo much harder than anywhere else in our country (and hopefully no place else gets hit the way it did).  Population density & continued use of mass transit seem to be likely culprits, but still would like to see what the official explanation ends up.  (And still hope that when all is said and done we get better data than simply 'everyone that didn't die from bloodloss since February 1 was a victim of this Corona virus' that we seem to be getting.  It'll go a long way towards determining what actually happened and how to better deal with it next time something like this springs up.)

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, Koko78 said:

 

At least we're not Browns fans...

 

was really happy the other day watching NFL network and they were discussing which team stands the best chance of ending their drought after the draft.  They didn't even mention Buffalo BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE ONE!!

 

Cleveland was mentioned a few times however.

[Tiberius]

What kind of idiot opens massage parlors during a pandemic? How friggin clueless that Republican Governor is

[Magox]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

 

The southern cities, excepting for a few like New Orleans, which has severe geographic limitations also are more spread out than their northeastern counterparts.  Which also should help them with "social distancing" relative to NYC.  Places like Houston are far more suburb-like than somewhere like Boston even though the metro population is greater.

 

Will be really interesting to see what the experts come up with for why NYC got hit soooo much harder than anywhere else in our country (and hopefully no place else gets hit the way it did).  Population density & continued use of mass transit seem to be likely culprits, but still would like to see what the official explanation ends up.  (And still hope that when all is said and done we get better data than simply 'everyone that didn't die from bloodloss since February 1 was a victim of this Corona virus' that we seem to be getting.  It'll go a long way towards determining what actually happened and how to better deal with it next time something like this springs up.)

 

New York City has definitely got their own challenges.  But if around close to 50% of NY city has contracted the Virus by the time October rolls around, which I think there is a real possibility that will be the case, then that could end up serving as a huge transmission shield by the time the next Corona Flu season comes.   Not to mention we should already have some proven therapeutics, better detection systems, contract tracing, etc etc.  

 

I believe in American ingenuity and I believe we will be up to the task come October.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Magox

[Foxx]

2 hours ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Lots of racists say it - you've been condemned by the majority - hence why you are a closeted racist who won't post that term on the main board.

OMG, a racist post on the main board. you better hurry up and report it, you ***** twit.

[keepthefaith]

12 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

What kind of idiot opens massage parlors during a pandemic? How friggin clueless that Republican Governor is

 

Essential service for those who aren't do it yourselfers.

[Magox]

By the way, these modeling experts suck. 

 

They first estimated north of a million people would die...Then it went down to 260,000, then to 100,000 then to 68,000 and now at 60,000.

 

We are already at 50,000.  I don't see how we don't hit 100,000 by the fall.

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

By the way, these modeling experts suck. 

 

They first estimated north of a million people would die...Then it went down to 260,000, then to 100,000 then to 68,000 and now at 60,000.

 

We are already at 50,000.  I don't see how we don't hit 100,000 by the fall.

 

This should be one of several major takeaways from this ordeal, right up there with: 

1) The media is an adversary to truth, not an ally

2) Fear is a tool used to get people to give up common sense and constitutional rights

 

And, the most important lesson of all: 

 

[Tiberius]

Experts said millions dead if no safety precautions taken. Notice the far right is doing exactly as predicted, using the effective nature of social distancing and closing businesses, to claim it all wasn’t necessary or experts were wrong. 

[Cinga]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

If the NYC study can be extrapolated and is accurate, NYC at 20% is good for NYC being some ways to achieving herd immunity, but NYC definitely doesn't extrapolate to the rest of the US. If it did, other cities would have been bombed like NYC and they haven't been. So while the NYC data is interesting, it's only telling a little bit of the story so far. And that the rest of NYS is only at 4% means that we may have a long ways to go to achieve the herd immunity. 

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't see that data as interesting and potentially optimistic on mortality, but sort of like the rush to embrace HCQ, be sure to temper it. 

The entire state is estimated to be 2,700,000 have had it which knocks NYS mortality rate down to .005%

 

And you don't get to herd immunity by locking people up!

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[shoshin]

9 minutes ago, Cinga said:

The entire state is estimated to be 2,700,000 have had it which knocks NYS mortality rate down to .005%

 

And you don't get to herd immunity by locking people up!

 

My point was not about mortality. It's about what our hospitals have capacity to deal with. If those #s in NY are accurate and extrapolateable, they are still just telling the tale of NYC. If 20% of every region in the US had this, other hospital systems would be bottomed out like NYC hospitals got bottomed out. So though I am eager to open, we cannot do it just by throwing the doors open. 

 

We need to open, and now in most places, but I like the Trump guidelines as a model for doing it. You get 2 weeks of good data, you get to start opening. Two weeks of good data at that level, move to next step, etc. Bad data, move backwards. Stable data, stay where you are. It's simple, scientific, and relatively incontrovertible.  

Edited April 23, 2020 by shoshin

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[shoshin]

13 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Experts said millions dead if no safety precautions taken. Notice the far right is doing exactly as predicted, using the effective nature of social distancing and closing businesses, to claim it all wasn’t necessary or experts were wrong. 

 

Your political hackery aside, this is definitely true. The low mortality at the moment is not due to being open, but is a number that combines being open with what happened during closure. 

[Franco_92]

18 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Experts said millions dead if no safety precautions taken. Notice the far right is doing exactly as predicted, using the effective nature of social distancing and closing businesses, to claim it all wasn’t necessary or experts were wrong. 

The U of Washington study and Imperial college study each had 2+ mil if nothing was done, and a floor of 100-250k if rigorous and strict social distancing measures were in place everywhere. What people comment on is that we made decisions based off of this, and then watched them adjust their predictions come in at half of their floor value as plenty of areas did a downright poor job of social distancing compared to what the models asked for at the times they made the claims.

 

pointing out that this is important to note isn't a far right thing, even if far right people take it to ill-advised conclusions (and I don't see a lot of people asking for ill-advised things in this thread)

 

For emphasis, I'll restate, we just got done watching a several week process of these models walking back their projected death totals by a huge percentage lower than their previous best case scenarios, as the country did a thoroughly mediocre job of shutting down. We were obviously working with bad data, and perhaps bad models, and should be talking about this so that we are making the next round of decisions with better models and data. This is not a right or left wing talking point, it is reality

Edited April 23, 2020 by arcane

[Gene Frenkle]

10 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

This board's been infested by progressive trash. Worst part of COVID.

 

I felt a great disturbance in the Echo Chamber, as if several conservative voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

 

Get over yourself and don't be such a whiny B word. Considering alternate views is good for you and is exactly what is missing in this country in general. Seeking those out and refining your world view could be seen as a sign of intelligence. If it lands in your lap, why complain? Otherwise you might as well be talking with yourself all day.

[SoCal Deek]

16 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Experts said millions dead if no safety precautions taken. Notice the far right is doing exactly as predicted, using the effective nature of social distancing and closing businesses, to claim it all wasn’t necessary or experts were wrong. 

We still know very little about this virus. The various levels of government have thrown every possible hypothesis at it but they’re really doing nothing more than saying ‘staying away from each other’ for lack of anything else to say. We may eventually find out the only people who caught it were people who’d worn an itchy wool sweater during January.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Gene Frenkle said:

 

I felt a great disturbance in the Echo Chamber, as if several conservative voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

 

Get over yourself and don't be such a whiny B word. Considering alternate views is good for you and is exactly what is missing in this country in general. Seeking those out and refining your world view could be seen as a sign of intelligence. If it lands in your lap, why complain? Otherwise you might as well be talking with yourself all day.

 

Only, if only, the lot of you followed your own advice.