SectionC3 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 50 minutes ago, Albwan said: the left has nothing of their own, outside of 'orangemanbad' I almost spit milk out my nose when c3tibsgaryzevon or whomever wrote in a post that a right leaning poster was a snowflake who was triggered. LOL. Fake news. I never wrote that. But congratulations are in order because you have made the snowflake list, too. Edited April 23, 2020 by SectionC3
Deranged Rhino Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Just now, Buffalo_Gal said: So, what does this mean in English? I read it as the data is improving to the point of opening the door for new therapeutics which can be brought to market quicker than expected. 2
SectionC3 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 45 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: The Governors are flying by the seat of their pants. We have the perfect laboratory in that we have 50 individual states, many with different orders in place. I think what we're all discovering is that there is no strict formula for success. Florida never had some of these restrictions, and they are not seeing large problems. Other midwestern states NEVER went into full lockdown and they're not seeing large challenges. The Trump Task Force should have more than enough 'data' by now to start drawing some conclusions that can be applied more intelligently. They should, you're right. Unfortunately testing has been deficient so we're in the dark so numbers w/r/t infection rate, hospitalization rate, mortality rate, etc. still are imprecise. 1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said: I read it as the data is improving to the point of opening the door for new therapeutics which can be brought to market quicker than expected. I'm not a doctor, but I reached the same conclusion. Well stated on your end. 22 minutes ago, shoshin said: If the NYC study can be extrapolated and is accurate, NYC at 20% is good for NYC being some ways to achieving herd immunity, but NYC definitely doesn't extrapolate to the rest of the US. If it did, other cities would have been bombed like NYC and they haven't been. So while the NYC data is interesting, it's only telling a little bit of the story so far. And that the rest of NYS is only at 4% means that we may have a long ways to go to achieve the herd immunity. I'm not saying we shouldn't see that data as interesting and potentially optimistic on mortality, but sort of like the rush to embrace HCQ, be sure to temper it. Well said.
Magox Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said: I am actually shocked those positive rates aren't much higher, with how contagious this thing is. I participated in the study, am interested to see if I have the anti-bodies.... So I was looking through the statements and as much data as I could that is publicly available to my knowledge. This does not include people who currently are infected. Which could be a big number because that means that it blots out a sizable number of people. Secondly, it doesn't count the dead. Thirdly, it over sampled white people. White people for whatever reason tested positive at only 9% whereas Hispanics and African Americans tested positive at around 22-23%. It also doesn't sample people who are sick and self quarantining so I know that they said on one hand it's people who are out and about at grocery stores, but that also implies people who are heeding the guidelines who are showing symptoms of staying home. More of these tests will be done. RIght now NY city is showing 21% according to this test, I would be shocked that when more tests come out and they take a look at more factors with proper random sampling that New York City isn't at least at 40% by the time June rolls around. Edited April 23, 2020 by Magox 2
billsfan1959 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, SectionC3 said: Unfortunately testing has been deficient so we're in the dark so numbers w/r/t infection rate, hospitalization rate, mortality rate, etc. still are imprecise. The numbers have always been imprecise; however, they could never be questioned. Plenty of posters on this board got crucified for questioning numbers. Now that some numbers are starting to come out that indicate the virus might not be as deadly as thought, and it is demanded we be skeptical... Edited April 23, 2020 by billsfan1959 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, Koko78 said: Well, they are WHITE blood cells, after all. How much more racist can they get? If minorities were truly as disproportionately impacted as advertised by the media, they should be disproportionately high on antibodies. Right?
SectionC3 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: The numbers have always been imprecise; however, they could never be questioned. Plenty of posters on this board got crucified for questioning numbers. Now that some numbers are starting to come out that indicate the virus might not be as deadly as thought, and it is demanded we be skeptical... Not sure what you're talking about. I can't see why we wouldn't be optimistic, but guardedly so, about today's data. The numbers today, while a good sign, provide opacity but not clarity. Not sure what prior numbers you're referring to or what your complaint is there.
jrober38 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 15 hours ago, BillStime said: Isn’t this cute... Trump (the Company) Asks Trump (the Administration) for Hotel Relief Shocking! 1
billsfan1959 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Gov Cooper extends restrictions until May 8 There is some indication he may extend until the end of May. I was hoping he would start opening things up by next week. We have 10.5 Million People in the state with less than 7,800 confirmed cases and 275 deaths. The county I live in has 1.1 million people, with 626 confirmed cases and 11 deaths. 3
Magox Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 1 hour ago, snafu said: I'm not sure I agree with the bolded part. In fact, if I'm the only one in my family going out and about, and I get exposed and test positive for antibodies, then I can pretty safely assume that the other people in my house have likely been exposed, too. All we've been told is that this virus is super contagious. If anything, I think the number should likely be higher -- like maybe somewhere between 1x and 2.6x higher (because average house size is 2.6 people I suppose).. Cuomo said as much: Quote Mr. Cuomo declined to speculate on what the preliminary data might mean. He said its main use would to provide a baseline for tracking changes in the infection rate. Supermarket customers do not constitute a random sample of the population. On one hand, they are out in public and spending time in stores, which could increase their exposure to the virus. On the other hand, they are presumably not actively sick, or living in nursing homes, where the virus has taken a heavy toll. And, of course, no one who was killed by the virus was tested for antibodies. Not to mention the antibody tests presumably didn't capture the people they pricked who actually have the Virus. That could constitute a significant undercount, not to mention they over sampled white people. And for whatever reason, White people that they tested only tested positive at 9% whereas Latino's and Blacks tested around 22-23%. Unless there is something wrong with these antibody tests, which could be the case, then these numbers most likely represent an undercount of the actual numbers.
shoshin Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: Gov Cooper extends restrictions until May 8 There is some indication he may extend until the end of May. I was hoping he would start opening things up by next week. We have 10.5 Million People in the state with less than 7,800 confirmed cases and 275 deaths. The county I live in has 1.1 million people, with 626 confirmed cases and 11 deaths. The criteria put on PA to reopen puts those of us in the eastern half of the state probably 2+ months away from even the first phase of reopening. https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/after-further-review-most-midstate-counties-not-yet-ready-for-yellow-under-wolf-administration-formula.html My county is running on average about 7x per day higher than we need to sustain for 2 weeks to open, and we are still undertesting. I don't expect to be open under his criteria until July, as we haven't seen any downward trend in cases reported yet. This standard for PA is ridiculous. (We are nowhere near as bad as Philly and some others.) Edited April 23, 2020 by shoshin
billsfan1959 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: The criteria put on PA to reopen puts those of us in the eastern half of the state probably 2+ months away from even the first phase of reopening. https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/after-further-review-most-midstate-counties-not-yet-ready-for-yellow-under-wolf-administration-formula.html That is too long. Seriously. People down here in North Carolina are getting pretty restless. There were protests last week and this week. They would go crazy if we went 2+ months before opening. 1
B-Man Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 STUDY: Nearly all NYC coronavirus patients had underlying health conditions. “94% had at least one additional ailment. 88% had more than one.” "Imams Overrule Pakistan’s Coronavirus Lockdown as Ramadan Nears." "The government gave in to clerics’ demands that mosques be allowed to stay open during the Islamic holy month. Now critics are asking who’s in charge."NYT has a headline . . 1
BillStime Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Jared’s task force seized more PPE. We still have no accounting for where seized medical equipment is going. Miami-Dade County misses out on 1 million N95 masks when feds scoop up shipment #FollowTheMoney
Magox Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, B-Man said: STUDY: Nearly all NYC coronavirus patients had underlying health conditions. “94% had at least one additional ailment. 88% had more than one.” . So, I think this was actually the most informative data point that came out today. Quote Health records showed that 94% of the 5,700 patients in the Northwell Health system — which has had the most patients in the country during the pandemic — had at least one disease other than COVID-19, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association. 88% had more than one ailment on top of coronavirus. Chart from Time: Hypertension was the most common ailment, affecting 53% of coronavirus patients. Another 42% of patients who had a body mass index on file were obese and 32% of all patients had diabetes. Data from 2,634 patients who either died or were discharged from the hospital showed that 12% were on ventilators and that 88% of those on ventilators died. We knew that people with comorbidities were people at highest risk and there was some research and data in Italy that echoed this. But to put this into perspective, is that 94% of the people who have died had a pre existing medical condition and the more striking number is that 88% of the people had two pre existing medical conditions. Most of them due to some sort of heart disease or condition. When you couple this data with what the antibody tests, you are probably talking about a mortality rate for people who don't have pre existing medical conditions of somewhere around .02 - .1%...... If we are to truly trust the data and that the data does end up somewhat confirming this, then the data says that we should be doing a targeted approach to social distancing. Not withstanding the heavy population areas, the data appears to back up Sweden's approach. Quote But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks. “In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday. 3
Foxx Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said: So, what does this mean in English? the are going to be using monoclonail antibodies (mAbs) to attack the virus. monoclonial antibodies are man made proteins synthesized from cloned immune cells,. this therapy is a popular cancer treatment. The advent and rise of monoclonal antibodies 1
shoshin Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: That is too long. Seriously. People down here in North Carolina are getting pretty restless. There were protests last week and this week. They would go crazy if we went 2+ months before opening. Amen brother. I can work at home indefinitely, but the economy can't take it and really, I want my daughter to have some time with her school friends and a start to her first college year at college, though I am definitely concerned that may not happen at this point. 6 minutes ago, Magox said: So, I think this was actually the most informative data point that came out today. We knew that people with comorbidities were people at highest risk and there was some research and data in Italy that echoed this. But to put this into perspective, is that 94% of the people who have died had a pre existing medical condition and the more striking number is that 88% of the people had two pre existing medical conditions. Most of them due to some sort of heart disease or condition. When you couple this data with what the antibody tests, you are probably talking about a mortality rate for people who don't have pre existing medical conditions of somewhere around .02 - .1%...... If we are to truly trust the data and that the data does end up somewhat confirming this, then the data says that we should be doing a targeted approach to social distancing. Keep saying it. We are dropping an anvil on this and could be doing this much more surgically and probably better, because we'd be focusing on helping those most affected and not just spending energy on everyone. 1
Magox Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: Amen brother. I can work at home indefinitely, but the economy can't take it and really, I want my daughter to have some time with her school friends and a start to her first college year at college, though I am definitely concerned that may not happen at this point. This has become a political football. The Blue state governors are moving the goal posts. The standard used to be "Flatten the curve" and now the goal posts are moving from the blue state governors and now it is "We need more testing before we can open up the economy". Polls show that more people are concerned with being overly cautious (even though I do think the polls are worded poorly) and it is an election year and this seems to be the unified position from the left. So, they can hold out until they get what they perceive enough testing for phase 1 despite Dr Fauci and Dr Birx saying otherwise. If the Red states open up without too much incident or outbreaks then the pressure will grow for them to reopen up parts of their economy. 4 minutes ago, shoshin said: Amen brother. I can work at home indefinitely, but the economy can't take it and really, I want my daughter to have some time with her school friends and a start to her first college year at college, though I am definitely concerned that may not happen at this point. Keep saying it. We are dropping an anvil on this and could be doing this much more surgically and probably better, because we'd be focusing on helping those most affected and not just spending energy on everyone. Yep
shoshin Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Magox said: This has become a political football. The Blue state governors are moving the goal posts. The standard used to be "Flatten the curve" and now the goal posts are moving from the blue state governors and now it is "We need more testing before we can open up the economy". Polls show that more people are concerned with being overly cautious (even though I do think the polls are worded poorly) and it is an election year and this seems to be the unified position from the left. So, they can hold out until they get what they perceive enough testing for phase 1 despite Dr Fauci and Dr Birx saying otherwise. I think Birx and Fauci agree on the Trump guidelines. The guidelines are not being met to move into phase 1 in most places yet, even those that are about to open. Just noting this for the record. Quote If the Red states open up without too much incident or outbreaks then the pressure will grow for them to reopen up parts of their economy. Yep The southern states are doing well, which is probable weather driven. So it's a little hard to say the NE should follow their lead just because they may do better. I'm not arguing your point, just that what's good for Texas may not be good for NY. I do think regional opening based on data is the way to proceed. Edited April 23, 2020 by shoshin 1
Magox Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: I think Birx and Fauci agree on the Trump guidelines. The guidelines are not being met to move into phase 1 in most places yet, even those that are about to open. Just noting this for the record. The southern states are doing well, which is probable weather driven. So it's a little hard to say the NE should follow their lead just because they may do better. I'm not arguing your point, just that what's good for Texas may not be good for NY. I do think regional opening based on data is the way to proceed. I agree with this....The Federal government has already made their guidelines, so now that those are the guidelines I think all states should follow suit once they meet the criteria. Clearly states in the south have an advantage over the northern states as do the states with more sparse population density over the more populous ones.
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