The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[shoshin]

14% of NYS and 21% NYC tests return positive. Biggest sample size for one of these yet. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new york &index=1&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-1ac474b4

 

More than 20 percent of people tested for virus antibodies in N.Y.C. tested positive.

About 21 percent of people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week tested positive, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.

 

The surprising results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Are you hanging out in a preschool right now?

 

Sure feels like it. At least you are aware enough to know you are in the referenced population....

[Magox]

Not sure if this was posted earlier but another fascinating antibody result conducted by the state of NY.

 

Quote

 

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.

The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said. 

 

With more than 19.4 million people residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. In Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester, where the state’s first major outbreak originated, 11.7% of the tests were positive. The Covid-19  pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results. 

 

 

 

 

They go on to say:

 

Quote

“What we found so far is that the state-wide number is 13.9% tested positive for having the antibodies,” he said. “They were infected three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago, six weeks ago, but they had the virus, they developed the antibodies and they are now recovered.”

 

 

Would that include people who are currently infected?  Infected a week or two ago?

 

Whatever the case, this is yet another data point that supports a considerably lower mortality rate.  And if they aren't including the people who are currently infected or were infected a week or two ago, then that number is going to be considerably higher.

 

I have long maintained that before we get to the summer that number will end up being well over 25% and closer to 50% in New York City.  By Fall, they could be entering into a somewhat of a herd immunity.

4 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Which would mean a 1.3% mortality rate in the hardest hit city in the country. Yes?

 

No...New York state at .7% and New York city at .6%

 

The way the article reads is that it doesn't take into account people who are currently infected.  At least that is not the way it reads.

[SectionC3]

4 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Sure feels like it. At least you are aware enough to know you are in the referenced population....

 

There you go again with more fake news.  I have never said anything about membership in the "referenced population."  

[Buffalo_Gal]

If that report (and the one from CA) is accurate, looks like "we are all gonna get it" wasn't just doom and gloom, it was pretty accurate. I'd still like to see a vaccine though, as I am sure everyone else would, too. And then there is the crossing of fingers hoping this thing does not morph much more and the vaccine remains effective.

Now that we have all been cooped up for 4-6 weeks, washing off all the good germs with the bad germs and constantly killing the good germs with Purell, how long will herd immunity take to happen for those of us that have been locked-down that do not regularly use public transportation?

 

 

[Kemp]

22 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

The office of the president represents all American people. When the press are disrespectful to the office, they are disrespecting all Americans.

 

 

Were you similarly offended when a Republican screamed liar at Obama or when Jan Brewer wiggled her finger at Obama, or is this one of those one-way streets?? 

 

[shoshin]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

Not sure if this was posted earlier but another fascinating antibody result conducted by the state of NY.

 

 

 

They go on to say:

 

 

 

Would that include people who are currently infected?  Infected a week or two ago?

 

Whatever the case, this is yet another data point that supports a considerably lower mortality rate.  And if they aren't including the people who are currently infected or were infected a week or two ago, then that number is going to be considerably higher.

 

I have long maintained that before we get to the summer that number will end up being well over 25% and closer to 50% in New York City.  By Fall, they could be entering into a somewhat of a herd immunity.

 

No...New York state at .7% and New York city at .6%

 

The way the article reads is that it doesn't take into account people who are currently infected.  At least that is not the way it reads.

 

Agree but exercise some caution on herd immunity being particularly widespread even if those numbers can be extrapolated:

 

The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. In Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester, where the state’s first major outbreak originated, 11.7% of the tests were positive. The Covid-19  pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results. 

 

The testing results also may be artificially high because “these are people who were out and about shopping,” Cuomo added. “They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn’t come out of the house.”

[SectionC3]

Just now, Buffalo_Gal said:

If that report (and the one from CA) is accurate, looks like "we are all gonna get it" wasn't just doom and gloom, it was pretty accurate. I'd still like to see a vaccine though, as I am sure everyone else would, too. And then there is the crossing of fingers hoping this thing does not morph much more and the vaccine remains effective.

Now that we have all been cooped up for 4-6 weeks, washing off all the good germs with the bad germs and constantly killing the good germs with Purell, how long will herd immunity take to happen for those of us that have been locked-down that do not regularly use public transportation?

 

 

 

Still a lot of unknown, including whether the numbers are accurate or are skewed by those who take atypical risk, but the implication about the risk tolerance rising in society based on the new data is a fair one.  This is a CNBC excerpt:

 

"Global health officials have questioned the reliability of antibody testing, however, and whether it can accurately determine whether someone is immune to the disease. World Health Organization said on Friday that there’s no evidence serological tests can show whether a person has immunity or is no longer at risk of becoming reinfected."

3 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Were you similarly offended when a Republican screamed liar at Obama or when Jan Brewer wiggled her finger at Obama, or is this one of those one-way streets?? 

 

 

Since Obama is a Muslim born in Kenya or Indonesia, or maybe both places, he was a fake president and therefore was not owed respect, meaning that more screaming and finger-wagging should have occurred.  /end sarcasm. 

[Magox]

Just now, Buffalo_Gal said:

If that report (and the one from CA) is accurate, looks like "we are all gonna get it" wasn't just doom and gloom, it was pretty accurate. I'd still like to see a vaccine though, as I am sure everyone else would, too. And then there is the crossing of fingers hoping this thing does not morph much more and the vaccine remains effective.

Now that we have all been cooped up for 4-6 weeks, washing off all the good germs with the bad germs and constantly killing the good germs with Purell, how long will herd immunity take to happen for those of us that have been locked-down that do not regularly use public transportation?

 

 

 

 

Even though the studies that are coming out suggest that the mortality rates could end up being much lower than what was feared and maybe not that far off of the mortality rate of the flu, it would still suggest that its a lot deadlier than the flu.  Not so much that it would be deadlier if you or I were or most other people were to get it as opposed to the flu.  The mortality rate most likely isn't what makes it so especially insidious, what it appears that makes it very dangerous are two main points.

 

The rate of contagion.  It is so damn contagious, much much more than the flu.   And that we don't have a vaccine for it.  Right now 40% of the population gets the vaccine for the common flu, so that protects a lot of people from it and slows down the transmission of the virus.   So with Coronavirus, it is a lot more contagious and there is no vaccine which means that if we hadn't been doing these social distancing measures or some sort of social distancing measures, then the hospitals would have been flooded with CoronaVirus patients.

 

Just imagine if the regular flu had 10 times as many patients, we would be talking about a massive amount of deaths.  SO even though it appears that the mortality rate isn't nearly as high as what was feared, it still is dangerous in that it's highly contagious and there is no vaccine.

[Gary M]

31 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

 

That second paragraph HAS to be a joke.

 

Which president hasn't expanded the debt?

 

 

 

No the debt started in 2017.

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

Still a lot of unknown, including whether the numbers are accurate or are skewed by those who take atypical risk, but the implication about the risk tolerance rising in society based on the new data is a fair one.  This is a CNBC excerpt:

 

"Global health officials have questioned the reliability of antibody testing, however, and whether it can accurately determine whether someone is immune to the disease. World Health Organization said on Friday that there’s no evidence serological tests can show whether a person has immunity or is no longer at risk of becoming reinfected."

 

So, the only numbers you question, regarding the virus, are those that might be good news?

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, Kemp said:

 

Were you similarly offended when a Republican screamed liar at Obama or when Jan Brewer wiggled her finger at Obama, or is this one of those one-way streets?? 

 

If Obama had EVER taken any hostility from the press, I would have been shocked. Note that neither of your examples involved a "journalist", never mind a "journalist" in the White House briefing room.

There is no reason for the press to screech at a President in the briefing room. Ask a question respectfully. That question should be tough, fair, and with a point that promotes an answer/discussion. Screaming at the President, yelling at him in the middle of an answer, is not the way to forge a reputation for journalistic integrity.

There are several people in the WH briefings that ask hard question without resorting to hysterics. There is no need for the disrespectful theatrics we see from the press in that room.  

 

[billsfan1959]

13 minutes ago, Magox said:

Not sure if this was posted earlier but another fascinating antibody result conducted by the state of NY.

They go on to say:

Would that include people who are currently infected?  Infected a week or two ago?

 

Whatever the case, this is yet another data point that supports a considerably lower mortality rate.  And if they aren't including the people who are currently infected or were infected a week or two ago, then that number is going to be considerably higher.

 

I have long maintained that before we get to the summer that number will end up being well over 25% and closer to 50% in New York City.  By Fall, they could be entering into a somewhat of a herd immunity.

 

No...New York state at .7% and New York city at .6%

 

The way the article reads is that it doesn't take into account people who are currently infected.  At least that is not the way it reads.

 

Somebody needs to reach out and gently break this news to jrober38....

[Albwan]

11 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Were you similarly offended when a Republican screamed liar at Obama or when Jan Brewer wiggled her finger at Obama, or is this one of those one-way streets?? 

 

funny...right people say Obama, lefties screech "WHATABOUTISM", perfectly 

fine tho for the over inflated sense of self important chicken little crowd.

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Albwan

[Boatdrinks]

23 minutes ago, shoshin said:

14% of NYS and 21% NYC tests return positive. Biggest sample size for one of these yet. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new york &index=1&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-1ac474b4

 

More than 20 percent of people tested for virus antibodies in N.Y.C. tested positive.

About 21 percent of people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week tested positive, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.

 

The surprising results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

So this Kung-Flu is an extremely contagious coronavirus with a fatality rate probably somewhere just above that of influenza. Also with a high percentage of completely asymptomatic people, though I have no idea how many are asymptomatic with seasonal flu. 

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Somebody needs to reach out and gently break this news to jrober38....

He will be in a cave until sometime in 2024.

[Magox]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Agree but exercise some caution on herd immunity being particularly widespread even if those numbers can be extrapolated:

 

The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. In Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester, where the state’s first major outbreak originated, 11.7% of the tests were positive. The Covid-19  pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results. 

 

The testing results also may be artificially high because “these are people who were out and about shopping,” Cuomo added. “They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn’t come out of the house.”

 

Yep, and the herd immunity I was referring to New York City, not the state.

 

And the results, well...It's just another data point.  We have results ranging from .09 to .7%   And I would have to see the total number of people that tested positive for the antibodies in this test to get a better idea.  That article doesn't show that and it implies that it's only counting people who have antibodies.  From the article:

 

Quote

to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said. 

 

 

We do know that from the time you contracted the virus to the time that you expelled it completely from your system is over 20 days.  So did that 21.2% take into account people who are currently infected?  By the sounds of that article, that doesn't appear to be the case.  Maybe they did but it doesn't appear that way.  If they didn't, then the numbers will be considerably higher.

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Have you watched the daily briefings? The media bias is on full display every single day and it’s now become obvious that they’re being purposefully combative and antagonist...and they simply don’t care. These simply aren’t professional people. 

It's a game that the press and Trump love to play.  It can be funny when they're talking about trivial things like inauguration crowd size.  It's really irritating during more serious times such as this pandemic.  I feel like we're getting mixed messages every day.

[plenzmd1]

19 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

 

 

"Global health officials have questioned the reliability of antibody testing, however, and whether it can accurately determine whether someone is immune to the disease. World Health Organization said on Friday that there’s no evidence serological tests can show whether a person has immunity or is no longer at risk of becoming reinfected."

 

 

Listen, I am what most here would call on addled with TDS. Having said that, why in Gods green earth would you believe one thing that comes out of the WHO. They just incorrectly posted crap about Remisvider(sp) from the Chinese, which knowledgable people are knocking down all over the place.

 

I will trust Cramer and his sources 1000% over the WHO

 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by plenzmd1

[Boatdrinks]

14 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

So, the only numbers you question, regarding the virus, are those that might be good news?

All potential good news must be taken with a large measure of caution; all potential bad news must be taken with an equal dose of hysteria. 

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

So this Kung-Flu is an extremely contagious coronavirus with a fatality rate probably somewhere just above that of influenza. Also with a high percentage of completely asymptomatic people, though I have no idea how many are asymptomatic with seasonal flu. 

He will be in a cave until sometime in 2024.

I'm guessing based off the limited studies that....

1.) A lot of people have/had it without symptoms making the death rate anywhere from .1 to .8%.

2.)  It's extremely contagious which explains the remarkable number of deaths in a short period of time.

3.)  Herd immunity will happen before any type of vaccine is mass produced.