The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[B-Man]

‘Worst analogy yet’: Christiane Amanpour compares the WHO to NYC firefighters on 9/11 AND IT DOES NOT GO WELL

 

 

[RiotAct]

All NYS residents ordered to wear masks in public starting on 4/18, in situations where “social distancing” would be impossible 

[whatdrought]

On 4/10/2020 at 7:37 PM, shoshin said:

The State governments are currently prohibiting most Americans’ rights to assemble, including yours because not all the rights in the Constitution always peaceably coexist. 
 

You have the right to assemble but not if it is a danger to others. Same with the right to free speech (the proverbial yelling “fire” in a movie theater). Same likely with the unwritten right to privacy invoked by the anti-tracking people against tracing contacts of people infected with Covid 19. When your “rights” endanger others, they are not untethered. 

You’re arguing that the government gets to decide what rights are reasonable and when. That’s tyranny and it’s the exact opposite of what this Country was founded on. We as a society can agree on laws, via the checks and balances of the 3 tiers of government that act in the best interest of the nation (such as your fire in a theatre) example. But there is no room in the foundational origin of this country for one branch of government (specifically the legislative) at a state or federal level to suppress the Constitutionally protected rights of the citizens. If that existed, the constitution would be meaningless.

 

Furthermore, creating the precedent that says the government can call something a public health/safety crisis and strip rights willy nilly is exactly how you get a totalitarian government. 
 

The models were wrong. Horribly so. This is not nearly the crisis that it was said to be when this all started which proves that government actors can exaggerate or lie and use that to steal away unalienable rights. It’s idiotic to submit to that. 

[Scraps]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

The tests pushed by the WHO were developed in Germany, but haven't seen anything indicating that they were actually MADE in Germany.  (Certainly those used in Germany were, but those used elsewhere likely weren't.)

 

As China was set up to most readily make large quantities of tests and they seem to have a strong working relationship with the WHO, it makes sense that countries that didn't have their own capabilities to make test kits (or at minimum couldn't meet their own full demand) would have their kits made in China.  And as the German test was the WHO's recommended test, it makes sense that it is the same one.

 

The US didn't use the German tests because the CDC said they had developed their own kits the same day the WHO told the world about the German ones.  Considering the problem with the US kits was a bad blank, it wouldn't have been out of the question for US made German kits to have the same issues.

 

The thing that might have helped our situation some that isn't totally hindsight would've been shutting down flights from Italy before the rest of Europe.  But, don't know if our treaties would've allowed us to restrict travel from only 1 European Country and not the whole EU.

Almost all of this is factually incorrect.  The German test was developed before the genome of this virus was made available.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia/testing-coronavirus-science-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/cdc-who-coronavirus-tests/

[BuffaloHokie13]

13 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

All NYS residents ordered to wear masks in public starting on 4/18, in situations where “social distancing” would be impossible 

I'm amazed at how many people I see out running in DC with no mask. I wonder if they realize that they are potentially leaving a 3 hour infectious trail, or if they care. I'm also impressed by the number of people who don't cover their nose with their masks. If it weren't risking others I'd chalk it up to natural selection. 

[shoshin]

51 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/business/china-coronavirus-masks-tests.html

https://www.newsweek.com/uk-says-millions-coronavirus-test-kits-bought-china-unreliable-most-patients-1496506

These are the same tests the WHO was pushing in Feb/March.

 

But none of the tests transmitted the virus. I was questioning that part. 

 

26 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

You’re arguing that the government gets to decide what rights are reasonable and when. That’s tyranny and it’s the exact opposite of what this Country was founded on. We as a society can agree on laws, via the checks and balances of the 3 tiers of government that act in the best interest of the nation (such as your fire in a theatre) example. But there is no room in the foundational origin of this country for one branch of government (specifically the legislative) at a state or federal level to suppress the Constitutionally protected rights of the citizens. If that existed, the constitution would be meaningless.

 

Furthermore, creating the precedent that says the government can call something a public health/safety crisis and strip rights willy nilly is exactly how you get a totalitarian government. 
 

The models were wrong. Horribly so. This is not nearly the crisis that it was said to be when this all started which proves that government actors can exaggerate or lie and use that to steal away unalienable rights. It’s idiotic to submit to that. 

 

The Constitution protects your rights but sometimes the rights are in conflict, and one right overrides another. That's what happens in times of war or pandemic, and even at other times. This has always been true. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by shoshin

[B-Man]

 

 

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Almost all of this is factually incorrect.  The German test was developed before the genome of this virus was made available.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia/testing-coronavirus-science-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/cdc-who-coronavirus-tests/

 

Which is wrong? That the CDC said they had their own test when the WHO started touting the German one?

Is it the part saying the WHO's test "which has distributed by early February more than 1 million tests to countries around the world based in part on the method developed by the German researchers" wasn't made in Germany which had made 1.4MM by the end of February?  Sorry, guess saying the WHO's test was the German 1 rather than "based on the German" kit was wildly inaccurate.

 

The WHO itself has said it didn't offer the German test to the US.

[Gary M]

26 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

The models were wrong. Horribly so. This is not nearly the crisis that it was said to be when this all started which proves that government actors can exaggerate or lie and use that to steal away unalienable rights. It’s idiotic to submit to that. 

 

And if/when it happens again it is going to much more difficult to get people to willing comply, which will likely lead to a much larger disaster.

 

They need to reopen things soon!!!

 

Don't get me wrong I believe the social distancing worked, but I think it needed to be better fitted to certain areas, and not just states but counties also.

 

 

[unbillievable]

22 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm amazed at how many people I see out running in DC with no mask. I wonder if they realize that they are potentially leaving a 3 hour infectious trail, or if they care. I'm also impressed by the number of people who don't cover their nose with their masks. If it weren't risking others I'd chalk it up to natural selection. 

 

People don't cover their nose because it's difficult to breathe through proper masks. I tell people that if they can breathe normally, then what they're wearing is just for fashion.

 

Although, It might help prevent from other diseases...

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by unbillievable

[Buffalo_Gal]

Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
 

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.
 

The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.
 

</snip>
 

But what about Italy and their staggering 12% mortality rate? “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel told the news agency. Indeed, Italy’s exceptionally high coronavirus mortality rate is eerily reminiscent of their unusually high flu mortality rates. Supportive of this theory, Germany, has low flu infection and mortality rates and similarly low coronavirus rates.
 

</snip>

[whatdrought]

10 minutes ago, shoshin said:

The Constitution protects your rights but sometimes the rights are in conflict, and one right overrides another. That's what happens in times of war or pandemic, and even at other times. This has always been true. 

 

What right is overriding the right of free expression of religion? That's not about rights. It's about a generation that has a broken understanding and believes that the government owes them safety and security  from all things, even at the expense of their rights. That's not in the constitution, and it's directly against the heart and intent of the founding of this FREE country. 

[Scraps]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Which is wrong? That the CDC said they had their own test when the WHO started touting the German one?

Is it the part saying the WHO's test "which has distributed by early February more than 1 million tests to countries around the world based in part on the method developed by the German researchers" wasn't made in Germany which had made 1.4MM by the end of February?  Sorry, guess saying the WHO's test was the German 1 rather than "based on the German" kit was wildly inaccurate.

 

The WHO itself has said it didn't offer the German test to the US.

 

Isn't the "WHO" test available to any country that asks for it?  Is it incumbent on the WHO of offer it?  Other countries went directly to the German company.

 

It seems that CDC is to restrictive.  They developed a botched test and It seems as though corporations that work in the field of medical testing were not allowed to develop tests until it was too late.  At the very least, once problems were noted in the CDC test, they probably should have obtained some of the German ones.

[shoshin]

16 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm not saying it's not bad.  It's just that you saw a significant spike in the last three Tuesday's so take today's numbers with a grain of salt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will break 2000 again today or so it seems. Just like last Tuesday, this was not a single day spike. 

[B-Man]

THE WUHAN CORONAVIRUS IN CHINA, AND OTHER SUGGESTED READING

by Paul Mirengoff

 

I think I’ll take a day off from looking at Wuhan coronavirus numbers and writing about the pandemic. Instead, I will refer readers to a few articles on the subject.

 

This one is from Townhall. It reports that an Israeli professor, Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, has concluded that this virus follows its own pattern, irrespective of social distancing measures. He found that whether the country quarantined like Israel or went about business like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. I’m not endorsing this view, I’m just offering it for your consideration.

 

 

Here’s what I consider good news from the Washington Post. According this report, China’s Wuhan coronavirus charm offensive is backfiring. It’s not just President Trump who’s attacking China for this pandemic. Even nations normally friendly with China, including Iran, have been critical, according to the Post. And naturally, countries like France, Germany, Britain, and Japan are reassessing their reliance on China for critical health and national security-related supplies.

 

 

Speaking of China, this report from the American Enterprise Institute estimates the real number of Wuhan conoravirus cases in that nation. It estimates that China has around 2.9 million cases. That’s more than the total number of cases reported worldwide. China itself reports only around 82,000 cases.

 

 

Back to the good news. Abbott Laboratories announces that it has developed an immunity test and will ship nearly 1 million of them to U.S. customers before the end of the week. It intends to ship about 4 million tests in April and claims it will be to produce about 20 million per month by June. The test determines whether someone had the virus (some people have it without knowing) and developed antibodies that protect them from future infections. Policymakers say that such knowledge is a key to understanding the disease and to promoting safety when America starts returning to work.

 

 

 

.

[whatdrought]

9 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

And if/when it happens again it is going to much more difficult to get people to willing comply, which will likely lead to a much larger disaster.

 

They need to reopen things soon!!!

 

Don't get me wrong I believe the social distancing worked, but I think it needed to be better fitted to certain areas, and not just states but counties also.

 

 

 

I  think social distancing worked to an extent, but that it's widely irelevent in most of the country. In my county, with 5 cases, 1 hospitalization, 3 recovery's, and like 50 negative tests (the set up testing locally and all the tests came back negative) it's worthless. And it really hasn't been followed which proves how unneeded it is. 

 

 

[shoshin]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
 

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.
 

The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.
 

</snip>
 

But what about Italy and their staggering 12% mortality rate? “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel told the news agency. Indeed, Italy’s exceptionally high coronavirus mortality rate is eerily reminiscent of their unusually high flu mortality rates. Supportive of this theory, Germany, has low flu infection and mortality rates and similarly low coronavirus rates.
 

</snip>

 

The data does not show what the quote says it shows, and the paper is in Hebrew so I can't read it. The peak happens and lingers. It does not happen and "rapidly fall off. Italy's infections have been pretty steady now for almost a month. 

 

 

 

What his study may say is that the exponential growth turns linear after a while, which means zero acceleration. The numbers bear that out. But without quarantine, we would be linear at not 2000 deaths per day where we are now, but probably 2-4 times that. And that's a big GD number. 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

The data does not show what the quote says it shows, and the paper is in Hebrew so I can't read it. The peak happens and lingers. It does not happen and "rapidly fall off. Italy's infections have been pretty steady now for almost a month. 

 

 

 

What his study may say is that the exponential growth turns linear after a while, which means zero acceleration. The numbers bear that out. But without quarantine, we would be linear at not 2000 deaths per day where we are now, but probably 2-4 times that. And that's a big GD number. 

 

Italy is actually trending back towards positive growth (bad thing). The curve is turning back up...

 

Total cases, for reference. 

[shoshin]

10 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

What right is overriding the right of free expression of religion? That's not about rights. It's about a generation that has a broken understanding and believes that the government owes them safety and security  from all things, even at the expense of their rights. That's not in the constitution, and it's directly against the heart and intent of the founding of this FREE country. 

 

You can't "fire" in a crowded theater. Your freedom of expression is overridden due to public health concerns. 

 

There are so many examples like this that it really doesn't bear listing. The point is this: The government 100% has the right to abridge constitutional rights when another right prevails. 

 

The prevention of worshipping in parking lots was dumb. I'm not wasting time on stupid governors making one-off dumb decisions and it's being addressed.

 

Much more worried about big decisions that save lots of lives and reopen our economy soon. 

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Italy is actually trending back towards positive growth (bad thing). The curve is turning back up...

 

Total cases, for reference. 

 

Italy is pretty linear. See above, which is a similar pattern as its deaths. 

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

The point is this: The government 100% has the right to abridge constitutional rights when another right prevails. 

 

The point of this country is that the government works for us, not the other way around. The government does not grant us rights, we have rights.