The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Buffalo_Gal]

17 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

If you see Rick, tell him I said "Hey".

Casablanca is not a one day trip. ?

[Buffalo_Gal]

I stole this from a retired-scientist commentor on another forum I frequent (she is usually a voice of reason when people are running around with their hair on fire). Any scientists here want to comment on her take about President Trump's remarks?

There is a vaccine just a few weeks away from being ready to go into testing. The test kits that were sent out weren’t defective. They were sent out to state labs to speed up the quality control phase. Some that were designed to give false positives were included deliberately as part of the evaluation of the kits. When the numbers for the coronavirus are all in, the r0 for the coronavirus is expected to be between .7 and 1.0. That means people who get the virus are expected to pass it on to between .7 and 1.0 people. The r0 for H1N1 was 1.4-1.7. Normal precautions for the flu should be sufficient.

[3rdnlng]

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I stole this from a retired-scientist commentor on another forum I frequent (she is usually a voice of reason when people are running around with their hair on fire). Any scientists here want to comment on her take about President Trump's remarks?

There is a vaccine just a few weeks away from being ready to go into testing. The test kits that were sent out weren’t defective. They were sent out to state labs to speed up the quality control phase. Some that were designed to give false positives were included deliberately as part of the evaluation of the kits. When the numbers for the coronavirus are all in, the r0 for the coronavirus is expected to be between .7 and 1.0. That means people who get the virus are expected to pass it on to between .7 and 1.0 people. The r0 for H1N1 was 1.4-1.7. Normal precautions for the flu should be sufficient.

 

The vaccine might be useless and possibly take some time. Like the flu they have to update every year cause mutate or changes it self. (Flu is a RNA)  Possibly. Second part in article. Following rules can't post all info here.

 

Antigenic Drift

One way influenza viruses change is called “antigenic drift.” These are small changes (or mutations) in the genes of influenza viruses that can lead to changes in the surface proteins of the virus: HA (hemagglutinin) and NA (neuraminidase). The HA and NA surface proteins of influenza viruses are “antigens,” which means they are recognized by the immune system and are capable of triggering an immune response, including production of antibodies that can block infection. The changes associated with antigenic drift happen continually over time as the virus replicates. Most flu shots are designed to target an influenza virus’ HA surface proteins/antigens. The nasal spray flu vaccine (LAIV) targets both the HA and NA of an influenza virus.

The small changes that occur from antigenic drift usually produce viruses that are closely related to one another, which can be illustrated by their location close together on a phylogenetic tree. Influenza viruses that are closely related to each other usually have similar antigenic properties. This means that antibodies your immune system creates against one influenza virus will likely recognize and respond to antigenically similar influenza viruses  (this is called  “cross-protection”).

However, the small changes associated with antigenic drift can accumulate over time and result in viruses that are antigenically different (further away on the phylogenetic tree). It is also possible for a single (or small) change in a particularly important location on the HA to result in antigenic drift. When antigenic drift occurs, the body’s immune system may not recognize and prevent sickness caused by the newer influenza viruses. As a result, a person becomes susceptible to flu infection again, as antigenic drift has changed the virus enough that a person’s existing antibodies won’t recognize and neutralize the newer influenza viruses.

Antigenic drift is the main reason why people can get the flu more than one time, and it’s also a primary reason why the flu vaccine composition must be reviewed and updated each year (as needed) to keep up with evolving influenza viruses.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm

Edited March 7, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

The vaccine might be useless and possibly take some time. Like the flu they have to update every year cause mutate or changes it self.  Possibly.

 

 

Oh, I can play that game! The vaccine might be a great inoculation and possibly be ready within the month.

Might, possibly, perhaps, maybe ...

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Just now, Buffalo_Gal said:

Oh, I can play that game! The vaccine might be a great inoculation and possibly be ready within the month.

Might, possibly, perhaps, maybe ...

 

 

Just not jumping to conclusion's like most .Not even playing a game.  

 

But if you wanna play let's do it like this. I'm the Donald Trump guy. lol

 

 

[Foxx]

i'm guessing this is out of China, so... take with a grain of salt.

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1235674258858061825

Edited March 7, 2020 by Foxx

[mead107]

????

[GaryPinC]

One 85 year old patient, other mention of apparent fibrosis in some other patients, unsure if permanent fibrosis or not.

 

In my cardiac research I've seen some nasty fibrosis in pigs due to pericarditis resolve itself almost completely in about 2 months.  We're talking disgusting thick, white, huge fibers adhering between the epicardial surface and pericardial membrane.

[RaoulDuke79]

15 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Make sure you're well stocked on carona's.  I am.

They gave us hand sanitizer at work and it's some type of citrus scent which is ironic because it smells exactly like a Corona with lime that's been sitting in the sun for a spell.

Edited March 7, 2020 by RaoulDuke79

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

One 85 year old patient, other mention of apparent fibrosis in some other patients, unsure if permanent fibrosis or not.

 

In my cardiac research I've seen some nasty fibrosis in pigs due to pericarditis resolve itself almost completely in about 2 months.  We're talking disgusting thick, white, huge fibers adhering between the epicardial surface and pericardial membrane.

can you say that again in layman's terms?

 

[RaoulDuke79]

18 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i'm guessing this is out of China, so... take with a grain of salt.

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1235674258858061825

They should call it SAIDS

[mead107]

? I don’t want to take the chance just incase I can spread 19 on my phone. 
 

you never know. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by mead107

[bbb]

 

59 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

 

 

It's been a long time, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I watched that whole movie expecting somebody to say "Play it again, Sam" - and never heard it! 

 

[3rdnlng]

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

 

Abdu Sharawy

[B-Man]

4 minutes ago, bbb said:

 

 

It's been a long time, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I watched that whole movie expecting somebody to say "Play it again, Sam" - and never heard it! 

 

 

 

No.

 

Actual line is

 

 

“You know what I want to hear. … You played it for her, you can play it for me!”

 

“If she can stand it, I can! Play it!”

 

 

There is another line I am going to modify...........?

 

Renault: I was informed that Buffalo Gal was the most beautiful woman ever to visit Casablanca.      That was a gross understatement.

 

 

 

 

.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

 

Abdu Sharawy

 

Right on with elderly. Know a few and help those people. Really concerned for them if spread this way. As well went too disabilities classes (went further than lots people said about me). Know those still not in the best shape. Those who are on oxygen. Those people should come first. And helped first. People should unite and help eachother.   N95 if people have one should go to those in deep need. Immune system bad, elderly, disabilities people among other things those people should be helped first.

[bbb]

7 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

No.

 

Actual line is

 

 

“You know what I want to hear. … You played it for her, you can play it for me!”

 

“If she can stand it, I can! Play it!”

 

 

There is another line I am going to modify...........?

 

Renault: I was informed that Buffalo Gal was the most beautiful woman ever to visit Casablanca.      That was a gross understatement.

 

 

 

 

.

 

Thanks.................How the eff can the most famous line from the movie not actually be in the movie?!?  

[bbb]

From the CDC website:

 

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

 

Can somebody tell me why I don't remember widespread panic, the markets crashing, events being cancelled left and right - and Obama being blamed?  

[B-Man]

1 minute ago, bbb said:

 

 

Can somebody tell me why I don't remember widespread panic, the markets crashing, events being cancelled left and right - and Obama being blamed?  

 

 

 

Rhetorical............right ?

 

 

i'll leave it to Bob to answer.