The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Foxx]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

We can take it a step further too. Let's assume that everyone tested was showing symptoms and only 20% of people show symptoms. That'd push the number to a whopping 0.5% of the population, and it would push the mortality rate down to 0.6%.

that can't be because those would be flu like numbers.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, ALF said:

Joe Biden: Trump is worst possible leader to deal with coronavirus outbreak   Jan 27 ,  2020   USA Today

 

President has blithely tweeted that 'it will all work out well.' Yet the steps he has taken have only weakened our capacity to respond.

 

To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come sooner or later.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/

 

So saith our resident "moderate independent."

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

 

So there was no way possible to have lessened the pandemic in the US and disaster to the economy 

I think during the postmortem of this there will be a lot to  be learned.  The political tug-of-war afterward for "how to," funding, what went right, what went wrong, will make the last 3 years look like child's play. And, it will not just be politicians - lobbyists, scientists, medical doctors, R&D labs, pharmaceutical corporations, are all going to want a seat at the table. Money, money, money... public health concerns will be secondary. (I really hope I am wrong about the last, I doubt I am.)

 

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, Foxx said:

that can't be because those would be flu like numbers.

 

 

[Warren Zevon]

7 minutes ago, Foxx said:

that can't be because those would be flu like numbers.

 

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

 

Nice to see you've both come full circle back to IT'S THE FLU DAMMIT 

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I think during the postmortem of this there will be a lot to  be learned.  The political tug-of-war afterward for "how to," funding, what went right, what went wrong, will make the last 3 years look like child's play. And, it will not just be politicians - lobbyists, scientists, medical doctors, R&D labs, pharmaceutical corporations, are all going to want a seat at the table. Money, money, money... public health concerns will be secondary. (I really hope I am wrong about the last, I doubt I am.)

 

There are a lot of good things that could come out of this if everyone can find a way to just keep the politics to a minimum

 

I know, that's a tough thing to ask 

[Buffalo_Gal]

41 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

I’ve found a great way to negotiate or to win over prospects is only ask questions you already know the answer to. 

Lawyer-ing 101. It also helps when you are in marketing and in business. ?

[Westside]

Liberals hate facts like vampires hate sunlight.

 

(No, I'm not talking about Nasty Pelosi)

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

 

Nice to see you've both come full circle back to IT'S THE FLU DAMMIT 

 

 

I think there is enough data out there to understand that this is not like the flu.

 

However, here is what I believe that the final numbers will end up telling us.  

 

For those with no health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be about the same as the flu.

 

For those under the age of 19, it will be more benign than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be considerably more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with no health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

I think when all is said and done, the overall mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.5%        

 

Aside from there being what I believe about a X 3 to X 5 higher mortality rate, what makes this disease especially insidious is the rate of contagion.   It seems to be highly contagious, which I think we will soon find out that many more people were infected that were asymptomatic than what was previously thought.  Which would lower the mortality rates.

 

I could be way off, but base off of everything that I have seen, the studies that I have looked at and the known infections etc, this is about where I think it will generally be.

[meazza]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

I think there is enough data out there to understand that this is not like the flu.

 

However, here is what I believe that the final numbers will end up telling us.  

 

For those with no health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be about the same as the flu.

 

For those under the age of 19, it will be more benign than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be considerably more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with no health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

I think when all is said and done, the overall mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.5%        

 

Aside from there being what I believe about a X 3 to X 5 higher mortality rate, what makes this disease especially insidious is the rate of contagion.   It seems to be highly contagious, which I think we will soon find out that many more people were infected that were asymptomatic than what was previously thought.  Which would lower the mortality rates.

 

I could be way off, but base off of everything that I have seen, the studies that I have looked at and the known infections etc, this is about where I think it will generally be.

 

Good post.  I keep hearing about seasonality but I have friends who have family in Brazil who are having a hard time fighting the virus and it's summer there.  I'm curious about Florida and how its doing in contrast to NYC.

Edited April 7, 2020 by meazza

[Foxx]

11 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

 

Nice to see you've both come full circle back to IT'S THE FLU DAMMIT 

come on Gary, i think we both know that neither BF59 nor i said  that.

[Q-baby!]

21 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

After all this time and discussion you still don’t know how this virus works or spreads or where it came from...do you? It’s just way easier to be hysterical. It’s an odd way to look at your world, but you and my nutty sister in law would be great friends.

No hysteria here. You just don’t get to pick and choose stats to include. They are what they are. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Q-baby!

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Magox said:

 

 

I think there is enough data out there to understand that this is not like the flu.

 

However, here is what I believe that the final numbers will end up telling us.  

 

For those with no health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be about the same as the flu.

 

For those under the age of 19, it will be more benign than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be considerably more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with no health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

I think when all is said and done, the overall mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.5%        

 

Aside from there being what I believe about a X 3 to X 5 higher mortality rate, what makes this disease especially insidious is the rate of contagion.   It seems to be highly contagious, which I think we will soon find out that many more people were infected that were asymptomatic than what was previously thought.  Which would lower the mortality rates.

 

I could be way off, but base off of everything that I have seen, the studies that I have looked at and the known infections etc, this is about where I think it will generally be.

 

You are pretty spot on from everything I have read. It looks like the mortality rate will certainly be higher than the flu, but should still be under 1% - somewhere around .5 - .6 %. I think for this to not end up in second wave that equals this one, we need antibody tests available on a mass scale, advancements and availability of therapeutic drugs, and a smart way to phase into full employment.

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Of course. Pretty in-depth answer there, Tiberius. Hope you didn't overwork yourself in formulating it.

No need to go any deeper, why waste words? 

[3rdnlng]

3 hours ago, ALF said:

Navarro memos warning of mass coronavirus death circulated in January

 

In late January, President Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned his White House colleagues the novel coronavirus could take more than half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion, according to memos obtained by Axios.

 

Navarro's grim estimates are set out in two memos — one dated Jan. 29 and addressed to the National Security Council, the other dated Feb. 23 and addressed to the president. The NSC circulated both memos around the White House and multiple agencie

 

The "naivete, arrogance and ignorance" of White House advisers who disagreed with Navarro "put the country and the world in jeopardy," Bannon said, adding that Navarro was sidelined from the task force after the memo.

 

The Jan 29 memo set out two stark choices "Aggressive Containment versus No Containment."

 

Navarro compared cost estimates for the choices and wrote that the Council of Economic Advisers' estimates for stopping travel from China to the U.S. would be $2.9 billion per month. If the virus turned out to be a pandemic, that travel ban could extend 12 months and cost the U.S. $34.6 billion.

Doing nothing (the "No Containment" option) could range from "zero economic costs" to $5.7 trillion depending on the lethality of the virus.

On the high end, he estimated a scenario in which the coronavirus could kill 543,000 Americans.

 

https://www.axios.com/exclusive-navarro-deaths-coronavirus-memos-january-da3f08fb-dce1-4f69-89b5-ea048f8382a9.html

 

Wow , if only they took Peter Navarro serious back then

Seems like Trump took Navarro seriously enough to shut down travel to & from China 2 days later.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Tiberius said:

No need to go any deeper, why waste words? 

 

A motto you should live by in the future. It would greatly reduce the mortality rate of the threads you participate in.

[Foxx]

19 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

I think there is enough data out there to understand that this is not like the flu.

 

However, here is what I believe that the final numbers will end up telling us.  

 

For those with no health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be about the same as the flu.

 

For those under the age of 19, it will be more benign than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be considerably more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with no health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

I think when all is said and done, the overall mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.5%        

 

Aside from there being what I believe about a X 3 to X 5 higher mortality rate, what makes this disease especially insidious is the rate of contagion.   It seems to be highly contagious, which I think we will soon find out that many more people were infected that were asymptomatic than what was previously thought.  Which would lower the mortality rates.

 

I could be way off, but base off of everything that I have seen, the studies that I have looked at and the known infections etc, this is about where I think it will generally be.

to my way of thinkin', what makes this 'virus' insipid is the fact that there doesn't seem to be a basic pattern of affliction. from all appearances, it seems random, though more than likely it most certainly is not. what i mean by this is that you can take two identical people, same age, same demographic, same apparent health status and it will seemingly affect both differently. i'm sure there is a underlying (genetic) rhyme and reason for this but it will be sometime, if ever that we understand the correlation.

 

with this in mind, it very well could be that this virus was nothing more than a SARS- Corona mutation that somehow made a jump from bat to humans. however, also because of this, in my mind i simply can not rule out the possibility that it was bio-engineered.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Foxx

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

A motto you should live by in the future. It would greatly reduce the mortality rate of the threads you participate in.

The mortality rate? 

[Magox]

7 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Seems like Trump took Navarro seriously enough to shut down travel to & from China 2 days later.

 

 

That's not to be understated.  @ALF  If you are being reasonable about this, then you have to acknowledge that was a major move that saved lots of lives.

[Tiberius]

Just now, Magox said:

 

 

That's not to be understated.  @ALF  If you are being reasonable about this, then you have to acknowledge that was a major move that saved lots of lives.

He didn't shut down travel from China, that's not true