The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

It’s not complicated people: The problem is/was that by the time they shut down travel from China there were already literally tens of THOUSANDS of Chinese people spreading the virus all over America. They’d come into our airports on both coasts. That’s why it started in Washington State and NYC. The WHO and Trump’s Health Advisors blew it big time! It was already too late. (Next time....lets not trust China with anything.)

 

 

 

...with them being "our friend", have you seen reports of their "life saving exports" being rejected because of product inferiority?....."never letting a good crisis( CAUSED BY THEM) go to waste" seems to ring true......this damn well better be a clear message to our Big Pharma manufacturing being there (COUGH)......FAR TOO long the US has been saddled with their product inferiority and coupled with vital medical goods being held hostage.....we may experience the death of 100,000+ US citizens from COVID-19....letting then die in vain because of Big Pharma profitability is beyond reprehensible.......

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[Gene Frenkle]

7 hours ago, Rob's House said:

 

Holy *****, Frenkle's back!!!

 

Where you been, you commie bastard?

Hey dude! Good to see you. I mostly lurk these days, but you know...isolation and boredom must have gotten the best of me. I hope all is good with you and yours. ?

[mead107]

2 minutes ago, Gene Frenkle said:

Hey dude! Good to see you. I mostly lurk these days, but you know...isolation and boredom must have gotten the best of me. I hope all is good with you and yours. ?

Lurking is best 

[B-Man]

REPOST>

 

 

THINGS SEEM TO BE FALLING SHORT OF THE MODELS: 

 

“There are 15,905 people currently hospitalized. Cuomo said two-thirds of hospitalized patients have been discharged, and the total number of hospitalizations dipped yesterday.” 

 

The numbers in New York are bad, but don’t seem to be going as predicted.

 

Related:

 

 

If this holds up, it’s great news, except for the models.

 

 

 

Plus, Florida:

 

 

 

Well, NYC is dense and relies on public transport in a way no other US city does. In addition, it’s north and Florida is south — so if seasonality is going to slow down spread it’s going to hit NYC later.

 

Or these are artifacts of reporting problems and don’t mean anything. Stay tuned. If the Wuhan coronavirus were to turn out to be seasonal, that would be huge news, though of course the 1918 flu was seasonal and came roaring back in the fall.

 

But note that something similar happened with Ebola: “New Ebola cases in Liberia, where streets were littered with the dead just a few months ago, now number in the single digits, according to the World Health Organization. In neighboring Sierra Leone and Guinea, the other two nations in the Ebola hot zone, new cases have fallen sharply in the last month, dropping to fewer than 100 in a week at the end of January — a level not seen in the region since June. . . .

 

Experts are trying to understand how the disease, which has defied the ominous predictions of the world’s top infectious disease researchers, appears to be extinguishing itself with surprising swiftness. In September, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had projected that, by Jan. 20, the outbreak could reach 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone alone, but by that date only 21,797 were recorded in all three countries. While many have emphasized the enormous assistance hauled into the region by the United States and international organizations, there is strong evidence, especially here in Monrovia, that the biggest change came from the precautions taken by residents themselves.”

 

Perhaps people change behavior more swiftly than models take into account.

 

 

Meanwhile, there’s this, which I would like to be true: Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate. But that’s a much higher number than other figures I’ve seen.

 

 

Related: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

 

All models are wrong; some models are useful.

 

UPDATE: From the comments: “I suspect we are seeing the impact of the much less strict voluntary measures that were taken well before the harsh lockdowns went into effect. It may turn out that washing hands was enough to stop this thing after all. Then again, maybe not. We are far from done with this and it will be about 30sec after it ends before everyone starts cherrypicking data to prove that their position was right all along.” Well, that last prediction is spot-on for sure.

 

 

ANOTHER UPDATE: How close are the latest Alabama coronavirus numbers to previous projections? “The total number of cases and deaths has fallen short of what was projected by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. IHME has sought to forecast, with advanced metrics, the amount of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 and the daily totals of deaths resulting from the virus.”

 

 

 

 

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[Gene Frenkle]

2 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

Absolutely. 

Lol...I'll never be surprised again after 2004.

[B-Man]

Media mystified as America rallies behind President Trump during coronavirus crisis

New York Post, by Editorial

Original Article

 

 

 

 

House Democrats introduce bill giving coronavirus aid to illegal immigrants

by Andrew Mark Miller

Original Article

 

 

Elizabeth Warren Demands ‘Critical’ Racial Data of those with Coronavirus

 by Hannah Bleau

Original Article

 

 

 

Steady, devout Mike Pence leads coronavirus fight past the haters

by Grace Curley

Original Article

[Chef Jim]

6 minutes ago, Gene Frenkle said:

Lol...I'll never be surprised again after 2004.

What does 2004 have to do with this?

[Gene Frenkle]

5 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

What does 2004 have to do with this?

That was exactly when, younger and more naive, I couldn't wrap my head around how half the country could vote for that other guy. It's when I lost faith in 'Merica, if that's not too dramatic, or at least began to understand how fervent patriotism blindly divides us. Anyway, that's neither here nor there and is not worth a rehash. Bigger fish to fry now, of course.

[billsfan1959]

Just a look at where we stand today in comparison to European countries roughly equaling the US population and, geographically, closely connected. The US is anywhere from 9 - 14 days behind these countries.

 

Country	Population	Cases	Deaths	Deaths per capita	Deaths per million	Cases per capita	Cases per million	Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy	60000000	124632	15362	0.026%	256.03	0.2077%	2077.20	12.33%
Spain	46000000	130759	12418	0.027%	269.96	0.2843%	2842.59	9.50%
France	65000000	90853	7574	0.012%	116.52	0.1398%	1397.74	8.34%
Belgium	11000000	19691	1447	0.013%	131.55	0.1790%	1790.09	7.35%
Germany	83000000	96108	1446	0.002%	17.42	0.1158%	1157.93	1.50%
UK	67000000	42480	4320	0.006%	64.48	0.0634%	634.03	10.17%
Total	332000000	504,523	42,567	0.013%	128.21	0.1520%	1519.65	8.44%
United States	331000000	312,245	8,503	0.003%	25.69	0.0943%	943.34	2.72%
New York / New Jersey	28000000	148,298	4,411	0.016%	157.54	0.5296%	5296.36	2.97%
Rest of United States	303000000	163,947	4,092	0.001%	13.50	0.0541%	541.08	2.50%

Edited April 5, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Chef Jim]

1 minute ago, Gene Frenkle said:

That was exactly when, younger and more naive, I couldn't wrap my head around how half the country could vote for that other guy. It's when I lost faith in 'Merica, if that's not too dramatic, or at least began to understand how fervent patriotism blindly divides us. Anyway, that's neither here nor there and is not worth a rehash. Bigger fish to fry now, of course.

I think the outcomes in 2004/2016/and if Trump wins 2020 says more about the losers than it does the winners. 

[RiotAct]

13 minutes ago, Gene Frenkle said:

That was exactly when, younger and more naive, I couldn't wrap my head around how half the country could vote for that other guy. It's when I lost faith in 'Merica, if that's not too dramatic, or at least began to understand how fervent patriotism blindly divides us. Anyway, that's neither here nor there and is not worth a rehash. Bigger fish to fry now, of course.

the 2004 election results surprised you?  Seriously?

[3rdnlng]

12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Just a look at where we stand today in comparison to European countries roughly equaling the US population and, geographically, closely connected. The US is anywhere from 9 - 14 days behind these countries.

 

Country	Population	Cases	Deaths	Deaths per capita	Deaths per million	Cases per capita	Cases per million	Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy	60000000	124632	15362	0.026%	256.03	0.2077%	2077.20	12.33%
Spain	46000000	130759	12418	0.027%	269.96	0.2843%	2842.59	9.50%
France	65000000	90853	7574	0.012%	116.52	0.1398%	1397.74	8.34%
Belgium	11000000	19691	1447	0.013%	131.55	0.1790%	1790.09	7.35%
Germany	83000000	96108	1446	0.002%	17.42	0.1158%	1157.93	1.50%
UK	67000000	42480	4320	0.006%	64.48	0.0634%	634.03	10.17%
Total	332000000	504,523	42,567	0.013%	128.21	0.1520%	1519.65	8.44%
United States	331000000	312,245	8,503	0.003%	25.69	0.0943%	943.34	2.72%
New York / New Jersey	28000000	148,298	4,411	0.016%	157.54	0.5296%	5296.36	2.97%
Rest of United States	303000000	163,947	4,092	0.001%	13.50	0.0541%	541.08	2.50%

Seems like a mistake was made in the red numbers based on the blue numbers.

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

Me. Busier than ever. I worked yesterday and going into the office today. 

No "shelter in place" proclamations in CA?

[Gene Frenkle]

24 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

I think the outcomes in 2004/2016/and if Trump wins 2020 says more about the losers than it does the winners. 

Oh, Chef, we're all losers.

14 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

the 2004 election results surprised you?  Seriously?

...and we're back. No. Not at all. Thanks for asking.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Gene Frenkle

[Bob in Mich]

59 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Watching the pressers, Trump has made mention of how some states were unprepared. He has mentioned that NYS had the opportunity to buy ventilators in 2015. He has qualified it several times with something like (paraphrased) I understand why not since we have never seen anything like this, but he has brought it up more than once.

For the most part, Trump has mentioned that we need to come together and stop playing politics. He has mentioned the good of the CA (Gavin Newsom) and WA (Jay Inslee) governors.   He even mentioned yesterday that Mayor de Blasio was appreciative of what the feds have done for NYC.

One day he praises Cuomo, and then Cuomo says something *****, the next day he isn't praising Cuomo. Makes me wonder what type of personal relationship these two had before Trump was elected (or if it all comes down to Cuomo playing games with Trump's NYS taxes?)

 

 

You hit it on the head. You nailed one of Trumps biggest flaws. He is not able to separate personal relationships from the relationships he must have in his role as the president. I am not a psychologist but his ego causes problems quite often in relationships both foreign and domestic.

 

Trump’s dealings with these Governors should be completely separate from any personal feelings. He is so fragile however that he cannot treat criticism as anything but a personal affront.  He immediately fires back at the criticism and has implied that those that criticize should get less federal help. That pettiness is dangerous and unacceptable 

[dpberr]

21 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

I think the outcomes in 2004/2016/and if Trump wins 2020 says more about the losers than it does the winners. 

I don't think Trump has managed the pandemic as effectively as he could have and could be. The federal confusion has put a lot of mediocre governors in positions of actually having to lead and make really big decisions. 

 

However, much like 2016, the Democrats have selected a person that inspires even less faith in managing a crisis like this. Joe Biden inspires zero confidence. 

[B-Man]

FOR PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES TO SUCCEED THERE MUST BE TRUST. FOR THERE TO BE TRUST THERE MUST BE TRANSPARENCY. 

Colorado: State refuses to let public see local virus spread model.

 

 

 

 

NEW ORLEANS HAS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE OF ALL HARD-HIT AREAS IN US, DATA SHOWS.

 

Anita Lee of the New Orleans Sun Herald, the author of the above piece tweets, “This story is getting traction today, although I’ve had angry emails about poverty and #COVID19 severity in #NOLA being unrelated. It’s Mardi Gras, they say.”

 

 

 

Hawaii, population 1.5 million, has only 351 confirmed Covid-19 cases, and three deaths, despite Honolulu being a densely-packed urban area and tons of tourist traffic from Asia in December and January.

 

Puerto Rico, population 3.2 million, has only 452 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 18 deaths, despite a huge amount of traffic between the New York area and the island, and San Juan being a densely-packed city. Like I said, I’m not an epidemiologist, but I’d love to know if someone who is has provided an explanation for these statistics beyond sunshine, humidity, and hot weather. (Note: New Orleans has been consistently hot since March 10, and if that doesn’t slow the spread of the virus, it would definitely throw a monkey wrench into the weather theory, though not necessarily into the “protective nature of Vitamin D” theory, as I suspect residents of San Juan and Honolulu get a lot more sun in the Winter than do residents of New Orleans. P.S. I’m aware that Mardis Gras was likely a “super spreader event,” but if hot weather is protective, the rate of spread in March and April should be slower than in colder climates).

 

 

 

 

 

SINGER-GUITARIST CHRISTOPHER CROSS, 68, TESTS POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS: Calls it ‘the worst illness I’ve ever had.’

 

 

 

 

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[billsfan1959]

27 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Seems like a mistake was made in the red numbers based on the blue numbers.

 

I took out the cases and deaths per capita and just went with cases and deaths per million. I believe the breakdown for New York and New Jersey vs. the rest of the United States is correct. New York / New Jersey comprise 8% of the total US population. They have accounted for 47% of cases and 51% of deaths

 

I also added in the approx number of tests conducted, to date, for each country.

 

Again, remember, we are about 9-14 days behind the other countries.

 

Country	Population	Tests conducted	Tests conducted per million	Cases	Deaths	Deaths per million	Cases per million	Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy	60000000	619000	10316.67	124632	15362	256.03	2077.20	12.33%
Spain	46000000	355000	7717.39	130759	12418	269.96	2842.59	9.50%
France	65000000	101046	1554.55	90853	7574	116.52	1397.74	8.34%
Belgium	11000000	22615	2055.91	19691	1447	131.55	1790.09	7.35%
Germany	83000000	918460	11065.78	96108	1446	17.42	1157.93	1.50%
UK	67000000	173784	2593.79	42480	4320	64.48	634.03	10.17%
Total	332000000	2189905	6596.10	504523	42567	128.21	1519.65	8.44%
United States	331000000	1500000	4531.72	312245	8503	25.69	943.34	2.72%
New York / New Jersey	28000000			148298	4411	157.54	5296.36	2.97%
Rest of United States	303000000			163947	4092	13.50	541.08	2.50%

Edited April 5, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 minute ago, Bob in Mich said:

 

You hit it on the head. You nailed one of Trumps biggest flaws. He is not able to separate personal relationships from the relationships he must have in his role as the president. I am not a psychologist but his ego causes problems quite often in relationships both foreign and domestic.

 

Trump’s dealings with these Governors should be completely separate from any personal feelings. He is so fragile however that he cannot treat criticism as anything but a personal affront.  He immediately fires back at the criticism and has implied that those that criticize should get less federal help. That pettiness is dangerous and unacceptable 

You forgot the part where Cuomo criticizes Trump first... remember, Trump counter-punches, he does not start. So, the better questions might be... Why can't Cuomo be thankful to the Feds for what they are providing to NYS?  Why does Cuomo have to criticize Trump/the Trump administration? Why can't Cuomo be gracious?  Why does Cuomo have to politicize this crisis? Why does Cuomo have to allow his personal feeling for Trump into this crisis? Why is Cuomo being so petty?

?
 

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

You forgot the part where Cuomo criticizes Trump first... remember, Trump counter-punches, he does not start. So, the better questions might be... Why can't Cuomo be thankful to the Feds for what they are providing to NYS?  Why does Cuomo have to criticize Trump/the Trump administration? Why can't Cuomo be gracious?  Why does Cuomo have to politicize this crisis? Why does Cuomo have to allow his personal feeling for Trump into this crisis? Why is Cuomo being so petty?

?
 

They are both being political ****heads at times in this. Trump has a bigger stage and role though. But the bar is really low for him when he’s behind the microphone.  
 

Trump’s actions are almost always better than his words. Not the best or an inspiring leader but he’s doing ok in his actions with this so far. I want him to do some more but this mostly has to do with explaining the path forward after this wave. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by shoshin

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Buffalo_Gal said:

You forgot the part where Cuomo criticizes Trump first... remember, Trump counter-punches, he does not start. So, the better questions might be... Why can't Cuomo be thankful to the Feds for what they are providing to NYS?  Why does Cuomo have to criticize Trump/the Trump administration? Why can't Cuomo be gracious?  Why does Cuomo have to politicize this crisis? Why does Cuomo have to allow his personal feeling for Trump into this crisis? Why is Cuomo being so petty?

?
 

Correct! Cuomo is CLEARY auditioning for 2020. I watched today’s PowerPoint and he thanked EVERYONE for what they’re doing....but ....when it came to the Federal Government sending military doctors....not a single ‘thank you’. The distinction was obvious! Go back and watch it for yourself.