The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Q-baby!]

2 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

Trump impersonation?  Is that all you got?

 

My work is done here. 
 

Of course I recall. But what you said wasn’t funny but she Foxx said was. 
 

God you really suck at this. 

Ok! Go jerk it to your Trump posters! 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Q-baby!

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

Just now, Chef Jim said:

No they are extremely functional. 

 

So you can ***** off too. ?

https://images.app.goo.gl/ndSxDAf1oKcvz5T78

 

[Q-baby!]

“Mitigation is working” the good doctor said and Trump had to jump in and say “but, we are not going to destroy our country.” So you know what trump cares about. He wants people back to work over people alive.

 

If you think more people are going to commit suicide than will die for the virus, you are fake news! 

[LeGOATski]

14 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Props to Bill Gates.

 

 

That dude predicted this in 2015 and already had a plan. 

 

Maybe he should be the next president....

[Q-baby!]

8 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

That dude predicted this in 2015 and already had a plan. 

 

Maybe he should be the next president....

If that is real, it sounds like a reasonable plan. 

[GG]

50 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

He just pisses me the ***** off and I’m not the type to ignore people who piss me off. 

Do you attack every mosquito that flies about?

[outsidethebox]

21 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

That dude predicted this in 2015 and already had a plan. 

 

Maybe he should be the next president....

Or a leading suspect?  Hmmmmm

[Chef Jim]

Just now, GG said:

Do you attack every mosquito that flies about?

Every one that stings me and pisses me off yes. 

[Q-baby!]

5 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

Every one that stings me and pisses me off yes. 

Bzzzzz Bzzzzzzz 

[LeGOATski]

6 minutes ago, westside said:

Or a leading suspect?  Hmmmmm

He fits the evil mastermind profile....

[Q-baby!]

[dpberr]

44 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

“Mitigation is working” the good doctor said and Trump had to jump in and say “but, we are not going to destroy our country.” So you know what trump cares about. He wants people back to work over people alive.

 

If you think more people are going to commit suicide than will die for the virus, you are fake news! 

 

Both men are correct despite the messengers. That's the difficult problem.

 

Yes the "mitigation" works.  It is giving hospitals time and saving lives.

 

However, in perpetuity, it will seed civil unrest and put exceptional strain on already battered cities, police departments, the NG and the supply chain. That's the scenario when the grocery store closes. 

 

The virus is trouble. The virus with looting, fires, and a 24-7 crime wave is the big trouble that has so many more vulnerable people than the virus alone.

 

. 

[Q-baby!]

2 minutes ago, dpberr said:

 

Both men are correct despite the messengers. That's the difficult problem.

 

Yes the "mitigation" works.  It is giving hospitals time and saving lives.

 

However, in perpetuity, it will seed civil unrest and put exceptional strain on already battered cities, police departments, the NG and the supply chain. That's the scenario when the grocery store closes. 

 

The virus is trouble. The virus with looting, fires, and a 24-7 crime wave is the big trouble that has so many more vulnerable people than the virus alone.

 

. 

Except “in perpetuity” was not mentioned. 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

That is such a lay-up that I will be very disappointed in our resident TDS crowd if they don’t come up with the obvious insult to Trump followers. Very disappointed.

It was an observation.  Relax.

 

20 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

I actually prefer this meme since that one's horrible.

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

It was an observation.  Relax.

 

Relax? I really expected a great insult.  I have been disappointed.  ? 
 

 

[Q-baby!]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

It was an observation.  Relax.

 

I actually prefer this meme since that one's horrible.

 

That’s ***** funny! As if Trump could beat anyone at Jeopardy! ?????????

[Cinga]

this is a good read if you haven't seen it already

 

https://medium.com/the-mission/why-coronavirus-should-be-the-least-of-your-worries-d6ed6abe75bc?fbclid=IwAR1lif3cDpKrOgqJ1O8bzfJqXJzHQPtWr22QLvyUvJAtAhtOaGtdK3-nWCU

23 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

That’s ***** funny! As if Trump could beat anyone at Jeopardy! ?????????

Yeah? How many times have you been elected President? 

[whatdrought]

28 minutes ago, Cinga said:

this is a good read if you haven't seen it already

 

https://medium.com/the-mission/why-coronavirus-should-be-the-least-of-your-worries-d6ed6abe75bc?fbclid=IwAR1lif3cDpKrOgqJ1O8bzfJqXJzHQPtWr22QLvyUvJAtAhtOaGtdK3-nWCU

Yeah? How many times have you been elected President? 

President of his own fan club? Plenty of times. President of the idiots united clubhouse that meets to synchronize their messaging for PPP? Never. He would have tied for first with the 20 other candidates who also voted for themselves, but someone logged in under their second account and doubled their vote tally. 

[B-Man]

THINGS SEEM TO BE FALLING SHORT OF THE MODELS: 

 

“There are 15,905 people currently hospitalized. Cuomo said two-thirds of hospitalized patients have been discharged, and the total number of hospitalizations dipped yesterday.” 

 

The numbers in New York are bad, but don’t seem to be going as predicted.

 

Related:

 

 

If this holds up, it’s great news, except for the models.

 

 

 

Plus, Florida:

 

 

 

Well, NYC is dense and relies on public transport in a way no other US city does. In addition, it’s north and Florida is south — so if seasonality is going to slow down spread it’s going to hit NYC later.

 

Or these are artifacts of reporting problems and don’t mean anything. Stay tuned. If the Wuhan coronavirus were to turn out to be seasonal, that would be huge news, though of course the 1918 flu was seasonal and came roaring back in the fall.

 

But note that something similar happened with Ebola: “New Ebola cases in Liberia, where streets were littered with the dead just a few months ago, now number in the single digits, according to the World Health Organization. In neighboring Sierra Leone and Guinea, the other two nations in the Ebola hot zone, new cases have fallen sharply in the last month, dropping to fewer than 100 in a week at the end of January — a level not seen in the region since June. . . .

 

Experts are trying to understand how the disease, which has defied the ominous predictions of the world’s top infectious disease researchers, appears to be extinguishing itself with surprising swiftness. In September, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had projected that, by Jan. 20, the outbreak could reach 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone alone, but by that date only 21,797 were recorded in all three countries. While many have emphasized the enormous assistance hauled into the region by the United States and international organizations, there is strong evidence, especially here in Monrovia, that the biggest change came from the precautions taken by residents themselves.”

 

Perhaps people change behavior more swiftly than models take into account.

 

 

Meanwhile, there’s this, which I would like to be true: Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate. But that’s a much higher number than other figures I’ve seen.

 

 

Related: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

 

All models are wrong; some models are useful.

 

UPDATE: From the comments: “I suspect we are seeing the impact of the much less strict voluntary measures that were taken well before the harsh lockdowns went into effect. It may turn out that washing hands was enough to stop this thing after all. Then again, maybe not. We are far from done with this and it will be about 30sec after it ends before everyone starts cherrypicking data to prove that their position was right all along.” Well, that last prediction is spot-on for sure.

 

 

ANOTHER UPDATE: How close are the latest Alabama coronavirus numbers to previous projections? “The total number of cases and deaths has fallen short of what was projected by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. IHME has sought to forecast, with advanced metrics, the amount of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 and the daily totals of deaths resulting from the virus.”

 

 

 

 

.

[meazza]

Seasonality would be a gift from god assuming that the world doesn’t blow the extra time to get prepared for the second wave in the fall.