billsfan1959 Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, B-Man said: New York City is Miscalculating Chinese virus death rates by Matthew Vadum Original Article The mass hysteria over COVID-19 in the U.S. is driven in large measure by misleading statistics and bad math about the disease’s body count. (snip) The problem starts with the fact that the highly influential statistics from the Big Apple paint a false picture of what is actually happening. In New York City, the death of anyone who dies who tests positive for COVID-19 is counted as a coronavirus death. This is the case even if the coronavirus failed to play a significant role in the person’s passing or illness. This calculus violates established scientific standards. . I have no idea if deaths attributed to the virus are inflated; however, it is an intersting topic. According to the data, approximately 85% of all virus related deaths occur in people with at least one pre-existing chronic condition - and many with more than one. Just off hand, I would think the virus would likely be the catalyst, or at least a contributing factor. I imagine It is something that will be evaluated at some point. Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959
GG Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, B-Man said: New York City is Miscalculating Chinese virus death rates by Matthew Vadum Original Article The mass hysteria over COVID-19 in the U.S. is driven in large measure by misleading statistics and bad math about the disease’s body count. (snip) The problem starts with the fact that the highly influential statistics from the Big Apple paint a false picture of what is actually happening. In New York City, the death of anyone who dies who tests positive for COVID-19 is counted as a coronavirus death. This is the case even if the coronavirus failed to play a significant role in the person’s passing or illness. This calculus violates established scientific standards. . I don't find this line of thinking as offering much value at this point or in the future. The primary determinant should be whether the underlying condition still be triggered if Wuhan virus didn't exist. Resources need to be planned based on the case, severity and mortality. There's been talk about Italy overstating its Covid cases, yet data also shows that total deaths in Lombardy are running 50% higher than in prior years. That's pretty clear conclusion of the virus's impact. 2
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/jared-kushner-stockpile-091408992.html Jared Kushner, White House adviser and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, declared on Thursday that the stockpiles of much-needed supplies governors were requesting to help with the coronaviruspandemic weren’t actually meant for the states. “The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile,” Kushner said. “It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” Lots of words to this story. Why not just link the clip in full and let the viewe le decide. "Patted himself on the back"? Never happened, I saw the clip. Is your contention that the feds actually stockpile a certain number per state, and NY property is NY property, Iowa to Iowa etc? Because it seems to me JK accurately described the relationship of the feds to the states. Why is that a problem? 2
shoshin Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 (edited) 26 minutes ago, GG said: What's the source of the data, because it doesn't correlate with the other trackers. The gothamist website, and it looks like they get it from NYS/NYC data. It shows 180ish deaths on 4/2, which is what you're saying. When I look at the NYC Health Dept info, they show less than 150 deaths on 4/2 (but also fewer on 4/1). I bet it has something to do with a measure of Manhattan vs NYC Metro or something like that. But they both show the big drop from 4/1 to 4/2. Either way, there was a one day drop, and I love it because of the human impact but it's not trending news yet. We should expect to see a leveling for a while before there's an actual drop. Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin
RiotAct Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 from CNBC: ”Gov “. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours“ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-york-gov-cuomo-says-state-saw-its-single-biggest-increase-in-coronavirus-deaths-yesterday.html Is that true?
Bob in Mich Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: My advice has always been to take the precautions you are told to take. If you can find a post that says otherwise please let me know. It seems you and others, who have been so vociferous in criticizing Trump about not listening to the scientific information from doctors, scientists, and researchers, don't actually practice what you preach. This is not time to look at, analyze, and debate the data! This is a time to react purely from an emotional perspective! I don't want you or your loved ones to die from this virus. Of course, I don't want you or any of your loved ones to be among the 2.8 million people who will die in this country this year from a variety of causes - many of which could actually be preventable as well. I have watched this situation develop in other 'western medicine' countries that preceded us, such as Italy and Spain. My views on this crisis have been fact based. I could see when they were overwhelmed that we would get overwhelmed in at least some hot spots in this country. Many here have focused on the differences to proclaim it would be different here. Yes, there are several differences but to focus on those in the face of the major similarities, was/is a mistake. The same is happening here. We are or will be overrun in some areas and the death rates then will climb in those areas. Some of this is inevitable at this point. Like watching a collision of huge ships, there may be time yet before the collision, but the die have been cast in some cities and the crash will happen. I appreciate the wishes for good health. I wish the same for you and your loved ones. Stay smart, keep safe. 2 1
shoshin Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 24 minutes ago, GG said: Both. The death rate should lag the infection rate by about 7-10 days. 14 days is a better number. That would be about now to look for leveling but only if people abided the quarantine and if they didn't go infect their households, in which case the leveling will go on a bit. 24 minutes ago, GG said: BTW, NY new case growth seems to be peaking. Too early, though the last 3 days are promising. There have been 3 day leveling moments before. 39 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said: If you think people are staying home I have a bridge to sell you. 99.9% of people need to go to the grocery store....you know, where there are a ton of people and social distancing is impossible? You're missing the point. We are not under house arrest. If the only close interaction people are having is at the grocery store and pharmacy, as recommended, that is a pretty massive social distancing campaign that will succeed for dampening this wave. 1
GG Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, RiotAct said: from CNBC: ”Gov “. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours“ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-york-gov-cuomo-says-state-saw-its-single-biggest-increase-in-coronavirus-deaths-yesterday.html Is that true? 2,935 is the total to date in NYS, not a daily number. Edited April 3, 2020 by GG 1
billsfan1959 Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 Just now, Bob in Mich said: I have watched this situation develop in other 'western medicine' countries that preceded us, such as Italy and Spain. My views on this crisis have been fact based. I could see when they were overwhelmed that we would get overwhelmed in at least some hot spots in this country. Many here have focused on the differences to proclaim it would be different here. Yes, there are several differences but to focus on those in the face of the major similarities, was/is a mistake. The same is happening here. We are or will be overrun in some areas and the death rates then will climb in those areas. Some of this is inevitable at this point. Like watching a collision of huge ships, there may be time yet before the collision, but the die have been cast in some cities and the crash will happen. I appreciate the wishes for good health. I wish the same for you and your loved ones. Stay smart, keep safe. Back at you. In regard to being overwhelmed, I agree that it is one of the critical factors in the death rate. However, from what I have gathered from a variety of sources, I don't see, even in NYC, anywhere near the level that we have seen in Spain and Italy. I also think the lag behind of the rest of the country provides the time needed to ensure other areas never get overwhelmed to that point either. Hope for the best and thanks for the reply. 1
shoshin Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, RiotAct said: from CNBC: ”Gov “. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours“ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-york-gov-cuomo-says-state-saw-its-single-biggest-increase-in-coronavirus-deaths-yesterday.html Is that true? No. Either he misspoke on the number or was misquoted. We have only had 1 day with more than 1000 deaths in US (4/1). The state (not the city) had it's biggest jump in deaths yesterday. That is true. ~430 or so. Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin
B-Man Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 NANCY PELOSI ON 2/24: PAY NO ATTENTION TO THESE CHINESE CORONAVIRUS FEARS. “WE THINK IT’S VERY SAFE.” 1
Deranged Rhino Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 Just a reminder — the same asshat who said all this: (Most of which is completely untrue, especially about what others said) 1 hour ago, Bob in Mich said: Really? For weeks you have criticized anyone here that has been posting dire predictions concerning this virus. Certainly your right, and BuffaloGal, and Deek, Rhino, and everyone here saying this is not as bad as feared, have that right. Are any of you yet ready to admit that you have been terribly wrong? I just wonder if any of you have considered if you have caused anyone to actually get this virus. After all you have been saying for weeks that this is not that bad and you have all been so critical of those saying this is going to be very bad. You might feel that you have been quelling panic but I would like to know if any of you feel any responsibility or even guilt for minimizing this pandemic to the under educated here. 1 hour ago, Bob in Mich said: Somehow you fancy your analysis as valid while that of those who were correct, as poor. No, I don't wish to discuss death predictions with you. Thanks anyway. Just curious as to what will finally have to happen to get the danger minimizers around here to admit that their postings offered foolish advice Spent the first half of March wishing death upon anyone who disagreed with his opinion. ... Asshats say asshat things — then run from them like cowards and try to claim the moral high ground. On 3/19/2020 at 9:54 AM, Bob in Mich said: If there was justice in the universe, rather than culling the elderly, this virus would cull our world of the idiots. Please God, start with those that continue to claim that this is all overblown. Be a better man, Bob. Or ***** off. 1
B-Man Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 SOME CORONAVIRUS PERSPECTIVE: Click to enlarge. Much-needed context. (Though, yes, it’s not over yet. Still.)” 2 2
Warren Zevon Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, shoshin said: No. Either he misspoke on the number or was misquoted. We have only had 1 day with more than 1000 deaths in NYS (4/1). The state (not the city) had it's biggest jump in deaths yesterday. That is true. ~430 or so. From Cuomo ~15 minutes ago Just now, Deranged Rhino said: 2 minutes ago, B-Man said: NANCY PELOSI ON 2/24: PAY NO ATTENTION TO THESE CHINESE CORONAVIRUS FEARS. “WE THINK IT’S VERY SAFE.” Not a good look for Nancy! 1
RiotAct Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 oh, welL good thing CNBC doesn’t have millions of readers or anything! SMH. When I saws that I was like “uhhhhhhh...”
shoshin Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 Just now, Gary Busey said: From Cuomo ~15 minutes ago I was looking at a calendar day of data from yesterday. The updated data he just gave definitely shows a huge spike. This is why one day trends are no good. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html
Beast Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, shoshin said: 14 days is a better number. That would be about now to look for leveling but only if people abided the quarantine and if they didn't go infect their households, in which case the leveling will go on a bit. Too early, though the last 3 days are promising. There have been 3 day leveling moments before. You're missing the point. We are not under house arrest. If the only close interaction people are having is at the grocery store and pharmacy, as recommended, that is a pretty massive social distancing campaign that will succeed for dampening this wave. My belief is you can still social distance and open business. In fact, social distancing may be a hell of a lot easier with more options of businesses that one in allowed to go to. 1 1
Tiberius Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, RiotAct said: from CNBC: ”Gov “. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours“ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-york-gov-cuomo-says-state-saw-its-single-biggest-increase-in-coronavirus-deaths-yesterday.html Is that true? Not what he said Quote Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers have died from the coronavirus so far with 562 new deaths over the last 24 hours — the single-biggest daily increase in deaths since the outbreak began a few weeks ago. “The curve continues to go up,” Cuomo said at a press conference in Albany, referring to the number of new COVID-19 cases across the state. There are 102,863 confirmed cases across the state, a 10% jump overnight, according to charts presented at the press conference. New York city alone accounts for 57,159 total cases, up 5,350 over the last 24 hours. 1
shoshin Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Binghamton Beast said: My belief is you can still social distance and open business. In fact, social distancing may be a hell of a lot easier with more options of businesses that one in allowed to go to. That's probably why you're not on Pence's pandemic team Amigo.
Beast Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, shoshin said: That's probably why you're not on Pence's pandemic team Amigo. Right. Instead, when one needs something, go to the crowded store where everyone has to go instead of spreading people out, all the while keeping social distancing in mind. Edited April 3, 2020 by Binghamton Beast 1
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