The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Koko78]

10 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

I love how the lefties, who have been screaming for 3+ years that Trump is a fascist dictator, are now upset that Trump isn't acting like a fascist dictator.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Scraps said:

And how am I supposed to know what was said in those classified briefings?  And given Trump's resistance to oversight, how do I know the House Intelligence Committee received the access to all the witnesses they asked for?

 

My point exactly. If you don't know what information anyone in the government received in these classified briefings, regarding the virus, then maybe you should just STFU about it until you do.

 

BTW, if you don't think the House Intelligence Committee received substantially the same information, then you are going to believe just what you want to believe regardless.

[shoshin]

22 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

How many is that going to be? How many people do think are going to die in this country from the virus? I have asked this question of others who keep talking about all the people that are going to die. Please, go on record with what you think is going to happen here and provide your supporting data.

 

In this wave until June, probably ~40-50,000. I assume we will level at 1500-2000/day for a couple of weeks, then see a rapid drop off where cities outside of NYC drive the numbers for a bit. Right now 50% of the deaths and cases are NYC and North Jersey. Currently the numbers showing that other cities are not replicating NYC and North Jersey, a trend I hope we continue to see. If other major metros follow NYC, the number could be 100,000 but I don't see that trend in the numbers. The cities to watch right now are LA, Boston, Atlanta, and Detroit. Philadelphia and Chicago shut down early and haven't seen large increases in deaths (yet). 

 

The bigger question on deaths is whether our current small population exposure is the only wave or if we have more. The Imperial College London model predicts multiple waves absent incredibly disciplined rigor in quashing outbreaks. 

 

An ability to treat early would help a lot. We all watch those studies with great hope. 

 

10 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You tell us

 

I already said it, but of course the cases will surge again much worse than before and we will either have an overwhelmed healthcare system or we will have another shutdown, both of which are untenable for the economy. What we are experiencing now is a caseload based on very few people having the disease. 

 

The re-opening has to be done smartly so we get the swoosh curve recovery discussed in the other thread so clearly.  

Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

My point exactly. If you don't know what information anyone in the government received in these classified briefings, regarding the virus, then maybe you should just STFU about it until you do.

 

BTW, if you don't think the House Intelligence Committee received substantially the same information, then you are going to believe just what you want to believe regardless.

Oh sure....use logic! Apparently there were 72 people on a meaningless phone call with the Ukraine, and a racist Muslim travel ban for Nowheresville-astan went all the way up to the Supreme Court ..but that same President was able to shut down airline travel from the largest population on the PLANET without a single one of these same oversight clowns having had the slightest input as to why? Yeah....that sounds right.

[Westside]

1 hour ago, Gary Busey said:

 

This is the story of the morning

 

 

Trump cultists everywhere now saying Fauci is part of the #DeepState

Does the president have that authority? Or is it up to the states?

[GG]

1 hour ago, Gary Busey said:

 

This is the story of the morning

 

 

Trump cultists everywhere now saying Fauci is part of the #DeepState

 

Or is it because despite of a blanket stay at home order, states outside LA, NY & NJ are not growing at pandemic rates?   At this point of the infection cycle, NY & NJ were growing at 40%.   The rest of the country is growing at 10%.   Seems to me that other areas took the threat seriously and are practicing proper viral hygiene.

[billsfan1959]

13 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

In this wave until June, probably ~40-50,000. I assume we will level at 1500-2000/day for a couple of weeks, then see a rapid drop off where cities outside of NYC drive the numbers for a bit. Right now 50% of the deaths and cases are NYC and North Jersey. Currently the numbers showing that other cities are not replicating NYC and North Jersey, a trend I hope we continue to see. If other major metros follow NYC, the number could be 100,000 but I don't see that trend in the numbers. The cities to watch right now are LA, Boston, Atlanta, and Detroit. Philadelphia and Chicago shut down early and haven't seen large increases in deaths (yet). 

 

The bigger question on deaths is whether our current small population exposure is the only wave or if we have more. The Imperial College London model predicts multiple waves absent incredibly disciplined rigor in quashing outbreaks. 

 

An ability to treat early would help a lot. We all watch those studies with great hope. 

 

I have several thoughts on this, based on what I have read. My guess is that we will end up with somewhere around 35,000 - 50,000 dead from this wave. I also think far more people have already contracted this virus than we think. Virtually every legitimate source is saying approximatey 25% are asymptomatic and another 25% have minor symptoms that wouldn't even prompt them to seek medical attention. So, I think far more people will have been exposed to it than you think. In the end, I think you will see a death rate of total cases that is higher than the flu, but still below 1%. 

 

Also, I don't think it won't be too long before we have the capability of each person being able to be tested, as well as the development of therapeutic drugs/vaccines. So, hopefully we don't get hit with a bad second wave in the future. 

 

I could be wrong and, if so, I will be more than willing to admit it.

 

Edit: Thanks for rationally saying what you think will happen and why 

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Good morning from the Jersey hot zone (again). Happy Friday and ***** China!

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/jared-kushner-stockpile-091408992.html
 

Jared Kushner, White House adviser and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, declared on Thursday that the stockpiles of much-needed supplies governors were requesting to help with the coronaviruspandemic weren’t actually meant for the states.

 

“The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile,” Kushner said. “It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” 
 

 

[Foxx]

13 hours ago, Tiberius said:

(Bloomberg) -- Doctors and hospitals overwhelmed in the pandemic will have to make their excruciating life-or-death decisions meticulously or they risk being second-guessed by a jury when the onslaught is over.

Lawyers who defend health care providers are already giving advice on how their clients can avoid liability if they’re forced to choose between patients. How they prepare for this battlefield triage now -- and how they practice it in the chaos of peak infections -- will determine whether negligence cases against them are dismissed or lead to trials or settlements over the death of a parent or spouse.

“The key, in my opinion, is to have clear written policies that do not discriminate or single out certain types of patients based on age, gender, race or any of those unlawful, suspect criteria,” said Nick Oberheiden, who represents doctors in malpractice litigation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/life-death-hospital-decisions-come-100000624.html

you know society is severely broken when health providers first concern is whether or not their decisions are litigious.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

At another point in the briefing, Kushner patted himself and the administration on the back, claiming, “We’ve done things that the federal government has never done before, quicker than they’ve ever done it before

 

How ***** delusional is this guy?

 

[GG]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Good morning from the Jersey hot zone (again). Happy Friday and ***** China!

 

 

You don't have to worry as much being in the Pennsyltucky part of NJ

[Nanker]

25 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I haven't researched that yet either. I think it will be interesting to look at the statistics when this is all over and how they compare to "normal" stats. For instance, approximately 175,000 - 200,000 people die each year in this country from influenza, Pneumonia, and chronic lower respiratory diseases (and you can only imagine what those figures are worldwide). I wonder what those figures will look like when we look back at this year.

Those figures might be a bit high.

However, one of the reasons I think some of the Wuhan Virus deaths are overstated is that some countries (Italy) state the cause of death as the Wuhan Virus - even though the patient died from something else, e.g., heart attack, diabetes, stroke, cancer. They may have been infected with the virus, but they died from something else, yet they're counted in the group "Died from Covid-19". 

[Tiberius]

20 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

I love how the lefties, who have been screaming for 3+ years that Trump is a fascist dictator, are now upset that Trump isn't acting like a fascist dictator.

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven

A time to be born, a time to die
A time to plant, a time to reap
A time to kill, a time to heal
A time to laugh, a time to weep

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven

A time to build up, a time to break down
A time to dance, a time to mourn
A time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven

A time of love, a time of hate
A time of war, a time of peace
A time you may…

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GG said:

 

You don't have to worry as much being in the Pennsyltucky part of NJ

 

Enh. I think that's just a matter of no testing here.

 

 

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/jared-kushner-stockpile-091408992.html
 

Jared Kushner, White House adviser and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, declared on Thursday that the stockpiles of much-needed supplies governors were requesting to help with the coronaviruspandemic weren’t actually meant for the states.

 

“The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile,” Kushner said. “It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” 
 

 

Just unreal. The fact that that dope was out there talking at all is unsettling. 

[billsfan1959]

Just now, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

At another point in the briefing, Kushner patted himself and the administration on the back, claiming, “We’ve done things that the federal government has never done before, quicker than they’ve ever done it before

 

How ***** delusional is this guy?

 

 

They have done things the federal government hasn't done before. That's not delusional. It's just a fact.

 

And speaking of delusional, you seemed to have turned it into an olympic sport in your posts.

[Gary M]

13 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Or is it because despite of a blanket stay at home order, states outside LA, NY & NJ are not growing at pandemic rates?   At this point of the infection cycle, NY & NJ were growing at 40%.   The rest of the country is growing at 10%.   Seems to me that other areas took the threat seriously and are practicing proper viral hygiene.

 

Population density and travel patterns are also key. 

 

Western NY here. When I go to work I pass through two doors that may have been touched by 40 or 50 other people, that's it.

 

In NYC when you leave your apartment how many people left before you, then you take a train how many other people have touched those same surfaces before you, then you get to your building and open a door and ride an elevator that how many people also touched?

Edited April 3, 2020 by Gary M

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, Foxx said:

you know society is severely broken when health providers first concern is whether or not their decisions are litigious.

Really? I don;'t agree. We use to kill each other to settle scores. Now he go to court. That's a seriously awesome improvement. It's good we can do something when someone wrongs us. Yes, it gets abused, but what doesn't?

 

Hope you are well Foxx

 

 

[shoshin]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I haven't had time to dig into it yet, so feel free to enlighten me if you know more, but I have heard rumblings that in many countries anyone who dies with covid is being counted as opposed to counted specifically those who died from covid. I'm wondering if that is also a part of the discrepancy. It would not surprise me if Germany was providing more valid data by ensuring it is represented properly. 

 

There was discussion early on about how Italy was counting people with comorbidities as covid deaths and Germany was not. Italy and Spain were both so overwhelmed that who knows. Italy is undercounting in some areas too, where people die in their homes and aren't tested, so the counting is not great either way. Deaths is still the best metric. Cases is a bad one. Here it lags as much as 10 days from test to result and as we all know, not everyone is getting tested (if your spouse gets sick and then tested, and then everyone in the house gets it but does not get tested, only the spouse counts against the total...same with all the other people who call for tests and are just told to only come in if their symptoms get much worse).