The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

31 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

You remember what happened when the USSR didn't show up for a few meetings of the Security Council?

 

Yeah, as long as the UN exists, the US needs to keep its seat on the Security Council.  All for reforming the UN; it is horribly corrupt.  But it would be foolish to leave it.

 

Well, at the very least we can neuter it, considering we're the top funder of it.

 

Cut off all funding.

 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

What exactly is his ignorance here? jrober38 has had an apocalyptic tone to his posts throughout this thread. Seriously, the guy has been a non-stop, worst-case scenario prophet ad nauseam....

He's right, though. This thing has probably only just begun. Highly contagious and yet less than one percent have been infected? That means this thing is a time bomb if we don't get a handle on it. Hope you are safe there airman! 

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

He's right, though. This thing has probably only just begun. Highly contagious and yet less than one percent have been infected? That means this thing is a time bomb if we don't get a handle on it. Hope you are safe there airman! 

Or it means a ton of others already have it and barely showed any symptoms. No one really knows and I think that’s why people are scared. 

[billsfan1959]

7 hours ago, Scraps said:

Like I'm supposed to know exactly what was said in those classified briefings in the White House?  Its not like someone is going to come out and give all the details for fear of receiving the Vindman treatment.  Best I can surmise is they thought things were far more severe in China that they were admitting to.  Several former administration officials were tweeting or writing op-eds about it in January.  If the administration didn't have similar information, doesn't that show incompetence on their part?

 

Is there really any doubt that his response was inadequate?  All the happy talk saying things were under control and would soon go to zero when it was expanding?  A woefully inadequate request for $2.5 billion?  Happy talk about churches packed on Easter?  Isn't it obvious that he failed miserably?

 

Pretty much what was shared in those classified briefings to the House Intelligence Committee, currently chaired by Adam Schiff in a congress controlled by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.

 

7 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

He's right, though. This thing has probably only just begun. Highly contagious and yet less than one percent have been infected? That means this thing is a time bomb if we don't get a handle on it. Hope you are safe there airman! 

 

Ok, Tiberius, I'll play along. Serious question? How do you think this is going to play out here. Do you think the United States will follow a path closer to Germany? Closer to Italy? Somewhere in between? Or worse than Italy?

 

BTW, all the data seems to suggest far more people have been infected than have been identified - and nobody knows what that percentage is.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[123719bwiqrb]

9 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

My bet is by the 4th of July you will be able to buy one at Rite-Aid.

 

actually I made this prediction 3 weeks ago.

 

I like your optimism.  Here's hoping!

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Pretty much what was shared in those classified briefings to the House Intelligence Committee, currently chaired by Adam Schiff in a congress controlled by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.

 

Ok, Tiberius, I'll play along. Serious question? How do you think this is going to play out here. Do you think the United States will follow a path closer to Germany? Closer to Italy? Somewhere in between? Or worse than Italy?

Hard to say, because even Italy is not all of Italy, but the northern part is bad, while southern Italy isn't. I guess we will be like that, too. I'd guess that this thing rolls through the country at different times. I see Albany Georgia is getting hit hard now. Technology will be our saviour, if we get testing, vaccine and more medical supplies we will manage. 

[SoCal Deek]

All I can say is ‘wow’. People need to step back a bit. It’s now almost a week into April and the world hasn’t ended...not even close. What these past few weeks have proven is that the doomsday projections and analysis were way off. Now, I’m glad we have health officials telling us to be careful and warning everyone about potential risks but much the same as your mother cautioned you as you headed out the door EVERY SINGLE morning and the mere fact that you survived long enough to be in this chat room should be proof that she was just being a mom. I’m pretty sure you didn’t do everything she said. Yet you lived!

[Q-baby!]

8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

All I can say is ‘wow’. People need to step back a bit. It’s now almost a week into April and the world hasn’t ended...not even close. What these past few weeks have proven is that the doomsday projections and analysis were way off. Now, I’m glad we have health officials telling us to be careful and warning everyone about potential risks but much the same as your mother cautioned you as you headed out the door EVERY SINGLE morning and the mere fact that you survived long enough to be in this chat room should be proof that she was just being a mom. I’m pretty sure you didn’t do everything she said. Yet you lived!

You sound like Trump. Stupid. 
everyone should probably go back to work soon right? That attitude will get people killed. 
 

Oh and it’s April 3rd. You using Trump math? 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Q-baby!

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Q-baby! said:

You sound like Trump. Stupid. 
everyone should probably go back to work soon right? That attitude will get people killed. 
 

Oh and it’s April 3rd. You using Trump math? 

Feel free to stay home Q. That’s up to you. You’ll make your own decision about when it’s safe to come out. (By the way, there are MILLIONS of people out right now, and there will always be, but you wouldn’t know that if you spend every waking second glued to the TV News Media who make money be convincing you that the world is ending, so you better keep consuming the product they sell.) 

[billsfan1959]

40 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Hard to say, because even Italy is not all of Italy, but the northern part is bad, while southern Italy isn't. I guess we will be like that, too. I'd guess that this thing rolls through the country at different times. I see Albany Georgia is getting hit hard now. Technology will be our saviour, if we get testing, vaccine and more medical supplies we will manage. 

 

Right. We don't know. That is my point. However, let's look at what we do know. Spain and Italy have been the hardest hit countries in the entire world. Much of that has to do with (1) the fact that their populations are older with median ages of 43 and 48, respectively  (95% of the virus deaths in Europe have been over the age of 60) and (2) their healthcare systems were overwhelmed early. Right now, they are both around 230 deaths per 1 million.

 

Even though the median age of the US is around 38, there is no evidence our healthcare system will reach anywhere near the burden of those in Spain and Italy, and the actual data suggests we are handling it better, let's say we take the path of Italy and Spain, and even go further with somewhere around 250 deaths per 1 million. That would equate to somewhere around 80,000 deaths.

 

BTW, one of the interesting things in Germany is that the number of confirmed cases, per capita, has been along the same path as most countries, yet they are experiencing fewer deaths, per capita, even with a median age in the range of Spain and Italy. They did some aggressive testing there early; however, much of that stems from (1) the fact that, for some reason, most of their confirmed cases have been with younger people where the death rate is less than the older population, and (2) their healthcare system not only didn't get overwhelmed, but took in people from surrounding countries.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Q-baby!]

18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Feel free to stay home Q. That’s up to you. You’ll make your own decision about when it’s safe to come out. (By the way, there are MILLIONS of people out right now, and there will always be, but you wouldn’t know that if you spend every waking second glued to the TV News Media who make money be convincing you that the world is ending, so you better keep consuming the product they sell.) 

I get all the news I need from the Trump pressers. Don’t watch much more than a half hour beyond that. People are stupid and their actions are going to kill a lot of old people (who cares right?) You keep pretending everything if fine as the death toll climbs. 

[Beast]

20 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Feel free to stay home Q. That’s up to you. You’ll make your own decision about when it’s safe to come out. (By the way, there are MILLIONS of people out right now, and there will always be, but you wouldn’t know that if you spend every waking second glued to the TV News Media who make money be convincing you that the world is ending, so you better keep consuming the product they sell.) 

That’s exactly right. Go to the grocery store.Tons of people there.

 

The funny thing? I am working from home. Early this week my modem took a dump. I went to Walmart to buy another. Why couldn’t I have went to Best Buy? I guess because Walmart sells food I have to go tire where it was absolutely packed?

 

I can only imagine there are many similar stories to mine only different merchandise needed. That could have been bought at different, less crowded, locations.

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

I get all the news I need from the Trump pressers. Don’t watch much more than a half hour beyond that. People are stupid and their actions are going to kill a lot of old people (who cares right?) You keep pretending everything if fine as the death toll climbs. 

 

How many is that going to be? How many people do think are going to die in this country from the virus? I have asked this question of others who keep talking about all the people that are going to die. Please, go on record with what you think is going to happen here and provide your supporting data.

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

That’s exactly right. Go to the grocery store.Tons of people there.

 

The funny thing? I am working from home. Early this week my modem took a dump. I went to Walmart to buy another. Why couldn’t I have went to Best Buy? I guess because Walmart sells food I have to go tire where it was absolutely packed?

 

I can only imagine there are many similar stories to mine only different merchandise needed. That could have been bought at different, less crowded, locations.

Interesting statistic: over One Million people die every year worldwide from traffic accidents. In the USA alone we lose 90 per day!

[BuffaloHokie13]

24 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

BTW, one of the interesting things in Germany is that the number of confirmed cases, per capita, has been along the same path as most countries, yet they are experiencing fewer deaths, per capita, even with a median age in the range of Spain and Italy. They did some aggressive testing there early; however, much of that stems from (1) the fact that, for some reason, most of their confirmed cases have been with younger people where the death rate is less than the older population, and (2) their healthcare system not only didn't get overwhelmed, but took in people from surrounding countries.

I haven't had time to dig into it yet, so feel free to enlighten me if you know more, but I have heard rumblings that in many countries anyone who dies with covid is being counted as opposed to counted specifically those who died from covid. I'm wondering if that is also a part of the discrepancy. It would not surprise me if Germany was providing more valid data by ensuring it is represented properly. 

[billsfan1959]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I haven't had time to dig into it yet, so feel free to enlighten me if you know more, but I have heard rumblings that in many countries anyone who dies with covid is being counted as opposed to counted specifically those who died from covid. I'm wondering if that is also a part of the discrepancy. It would not surprise me if Germany was providing more valid data by ensuring it is represented properly. 

 

I haven't researched that yet either. I think it will be interesting to look at the statistics when this is all over and how they compare to "normal" stats. For instance, approximately 175,000 - 200,000 people die each year in this country from influenza, Pneumonia, and chronic lower respiratory diseases (and you can only imagine what those figures are worldwide). I wonder what those figures will look like when we look back at this year.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[shoshin]

52 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

All I can say is ‘wow’. People need to step back a bit. It’s now almost a week into April and the world hasn’t ended...not even close. What these past few weeks have proven is that the doomsday projections and analysis were way off. Now, I’m glad we have health officials telling us to be careful and warning everyone about potential risks but much the same as your mother cautioned you as you headed out the door EVERY SINGLE morning and the mere fact that you survived long enough to be in this chat room should be proof that she was just being a mom. I’m pretty sure you didn’t do everything she said. Yet you lived!

 

The underlined was and easy reaction to predict. We social distance and the spread and deaths maybe level in a few weeks and after that, go down...and people then say, "See, it wasn't as bad as people said it would be." 

 

What do you think will happen when we lift the quarantine and the vast majority of the population gets exposed to this instead of the small numbers that we are seeing now? 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

The underlined was and easy reaction to predict. We social distance and the spread and deaths maybe level in a few weeks and after that, go down...and people then say, "See, it wasn't as bad as people said it would be." 

 

What do you think will happen when we lift the quarantine and the vast majority of the population gets exposed to this instead of the small numbers that we are seeing now? 

 

You tell us

[Scraps]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

Pretty much what was shared in those classified briefings to the House Intelligence Committee, currently chaired by Adam Schiff in a congress controlled by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.

And how am I supposed to know what was said in those classified briefings?  And given Trump's resistance to oversight, how do I know the House Intelligence Committee received the access to all the witnesses they asked for?

[Buffalo_Gal]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I haven't had time to dig into it yet, so feel free to enlighten me if you know more, but I have heard rumblings that in many countries anyone who dies with covid is being counted as opposed to counted specifically those who died from covid. I'm wondering if that is also a part of the discrepancy. It would not surprise me if Germany was providing more valid data by ensuring it is represented properly. 

That is a good thought... the dying "with" is also happening in NYC for a death count numbers.  Looking at the numbers released to date, my guess would be the number of cases are vastly understated (lack of testing, recovery without diagnosis, etc) and the deaths are overstated.