The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Capco]

2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

It's bull####, Capco. Comparing the MEDIEVAL EUROPEAN AND ASIAN economies to the 21st century is utterly moronic on EVERY level. As a student of history, it's one of the more astoundingly stupid points raised to date.

 

So of course you found it interesting. 

 

There are fundamental principles of economics present in the Black Death example, and these fundamentals remain true regardless of time period.  It happens to be the most stark and prominent example which is why I chose it, but there are other examples of the economic impacts of pandemics in the short and long term which exemplify the same fundamentals.  Again I just happened to pick the most well-known example.  

 

You calling yourself a student of history, after the conversations we've had, is laughable at best.  It's remarkable how highly you think of yourself.  

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Gal great post. I think most people getting numbers wrong. It's hard to say with this virus.

 

Ya going to take a break from this coronavirus for rest of day and enjoy things with my mother. Maybe make some cookies among other things.  Need too lol. Be safe everyone.

[B-Man]

 

 

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks Gal great post. I think most people getting numbers wrong. It's hard to say with this virus.

 

Ya going to take a break from this coronavirus for rest of day and enjoy things with my mother. Maybe make some cookies among other things.  Need too lol. Be safe everyone.

 

 

Wait...........Wait...........What kind of cookies ?

 

 

.

[Capco]

2 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

You can but you would fail in your analysis.  Again, South Korea is a country like Japan in which most people already wear masks, already clean after themselves and are already mobilized for this kind of event based on their history.  

 

That's why your comparison is a failure.

 

Oh really?  People don't wear masks in the US?  They don't clean up after themselves in the US?  The US has never experienced a pandemic in its history?  

 

That must explain why we don't have some kind of centralized agency for disease control, and why we never created a pandemic response team.  Yes, you've nailed it!

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

There are fundamental principles of economics present in the Black Death example, and these fundamentals remain true regardless of time period.  It happens to be the most stark and prominent example which is why I chose it, but there are other examples of the economic impacts of pandemics in the short and long term which exemplify the same fundamentals.  Again I just happened to pick the most well-known example.  

 

You calling yourself a student of history, after the conversations we've had, is laughable at best.  It's remarkable how highly you think of yourself.  

 

It's a bull#### example and comparison, Capco. It's utterly meaningless. It's lunatic type drivel that would get you laughed out of any serious analytical think tank on this matter. 

Just now, Capco said:

 

Oh really?  People don't wear masks in the US?  They don't clean up after themselves in the US?  The US has never experienced a pandemic in its history?  

 

That must explain why we don't have some kind of centralized agency for disease control, and why we never created a pandemic response team.  Yes, you've nailed it!

 

You're now proving how little you understand BASIC differences in cultures, let alone nations. And, coincidentally, how little you understand your own country and just how big and independent it is.

 

It shocks no one that you're under informed.

[billsfan1959]

3 hours ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Indeed - which is why people are rightfully upset the government dragged their feet throughout January and February.

 

53 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Serious question.

 

It is clear that everyone recognized there was a real problem in China by the end of January. However, here is a timeline. tell us:

1. At which point in January and February (your timeframe) should the administration and other leaders around the world have reasonably known the magnitude of what was coming worlwide?

2. What specific information are you basing your answer on?

 

Timeline

 

On December 31, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan

.

On January 7, the WHO reported that China had identified a new virus, named 2019-nCoV, and that it was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.

 

On Jan 11, China announced its first death from the virus released the genetic sequence. However, it was also accompanied with the information that they had only experienced 41 cases and that there was no obvious evidence of human-to-human spread yet. 

 

By Jan 17, China had reported only 2 deaths and only two cases had been identified outside of China

 

On Jan 20, First US case is reported

 

On January 23, The WHO reported that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.

 

On Jan 20, Trump forms coronavirus task force

 

On January 30, the WHO declared the virus a global emergency and reported the death toll in China at 170, with 7,711 cases.

 

On Jan 31, President Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China within the prior two weeks.

 

By Feb 3, new cases had been confirmed in at least 7 countries, including the US; however, there had been only 1 death reported outside of China. That was in the Phillipines and it was a man from Wuhan.

 

By Feb 6, only 30 people in Europe had been identified with the virus and all had ties to China. This is also the date of the first identified human to human transmission of the virus in Malasia.

 

On Feb 12, cases start to spike in South Korea

 

Through the end of Feb, there had been 88,000 confirmed cases - but only 8000 confirmed cases outside of China. There were 2977 deaths - but only 142 outside of China

 

Between Mar 1 - Mar 10 approx 35,000 new cases identified outside of China, and 1,319 deaths world-wide outside of China

 

On Mar 11, the WHO officiallly declares a pandemic

 

On Mar 11, President Trump bans all travel from 26 European countries for non-US citizens and non-green card holders

 

By Mar 11, There were 32,000 confirmed cases and 1,400 deaths, world-wide, outside of China and South Korea - with both China and Korea reporting stabilazation of the virus.

 

On Mar 13, Trump declares a US national emergency with 2,183 confirmed cases and 48 deaths

 

20 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

Still waiting for an answer, Gary.....

 

 

 

Gary????

 

[Albwan]

9 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

Honestly that was my reaction too when I first read about it.  But the analysis is very interesting.  

   Honestly all you guys would be far better served staying on twitter praising china,

 wishing death on people on the right, mental ***** daydreaming of obama,

or whatever it is that you guys fantasize about...

Total waste of time trolling here.

Most of the people here are laughing at all of you fools.

[RochesterRob]

13 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

You cannot compare the US to South Korea or any Asian country.  They have experience with this kind of stuff directly and also have a society that is much more likely to follow orders in a time of crisis.

  Once again I would point out that South Korea has the daily issues of living next to two bad neighbors in China and North Korea.  So naturally SK is going to do more on a preventative basis than most other nations on Earth.  Let''s not oversell the SK response.

[meazza]

4 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

Oh really?  People don't wear masks in the US?  They don't clean up after themselves in the US?  The US has never experienced a pandemic in its history?  

 

That must explain why we don't have some kind of centralized agency for disease control, and why we never created a pandemic response team.  Yes, you've nailed it!

 

Ever walked into a subway in South Korea or Japan? Compare that to NYC.

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

So...........you can STILL GO to the stores, but you can only buy what the STATE says you can buy.................

 

 

 

.

[Tiberius]

21 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

ARMCHAIR QUARTERBACKS TRY TO REWRITE HISTORY ON CORONAVIRUS:

 

“This morning, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough claimed that, unlike the Trump administration, ‘Everybody saw this coming in early January.’ If Scarborough knew that a deadly, once-in-a-century pandemic was about to descend on the nation in early January — I assume he considers himself part of ‘everyone’ — why on God’s earth didn’t he warn his susceptible viewers that they should begin social distancing?

 

Why didn’t his producers book a single expert who could beseech his viewers to start wearing masks, to shutter their non-essential businesses, and to avoid church and sporting events? Why didn’t he mention coronavirus at all? Even in late January, nearly a full month after ‘everyone knew,’ Scarborough’s show was dominated by the Donald Trump impeachment trial.”

 

 

 

Related: Despite Impeachment and Corona, MSNBC’s Ratings Are Stagnant.

 

 

.

 

 

Feb. 26 -- Coronavirus task force briefing: "We're going very substantially down, not up." the president said, as the number of Americans infected with the virus grew to 60. "When you have 15 people and the 15 within a couple days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

[Foxx]

15 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

 

Yes you can.  They are both countries.  Countries are compared to one another all the time regardless of size or background.  

 

You don't get to decide that lol.  

it goes to culture. equating East and West cultures in regard to personal measures is not apples to apples. Asian culture has long observed 'personal space' where as the 'western' world, not so much. additionally, the use of masks has been pretty prevalent for a long time in the 'East'.

[B-Man]

 

 

It must be great to be a rich, clueless, New York Times reporter

 

 

[meazza]

Just now, Foxx said:

it goes to culture. equating East and West cultures in regard to personal measures is not apples to apples. Asian culture has long observed 'personal space' where as the 'western' world, not so much. additionally, the use of masks has been pretty prevalent for a long time in the 'East'.

 

I went to Japan last year and like most gringos, laughed at everyone wearing a mask.

 

Well whose laughing now?

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, B-Man said:

 

 

It must be great to be a rich, clueless, New York Times reporter

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

[Foxx]

4 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

So...........you can STILL GO to the stores, but you can only buy what the STATE says you can buy.................

 

 

 

.

really?? wtf! so much wrong with this.

[whatdrought]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

 

 

I wonder if people who spend their whole careers preparing for the worst case scenario are at all inclined to see the worst case scenario,  regardless of the data...

 

24 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

The models may not be perfect but they all point to a potential catastrophe if this isn't controlled.

 

Stop trying to spin this.  It's hurting everyone but this has to be done.  

 

20 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

It's next to impossible to predict the precise numbers, the goal is to project the trend and if the trend is increasing, you need to lockdown.

Wait... we have to trust the models that are inflating every number by multiple times because those models point to a catastrophe?... 

[TPS]

3 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

Trump’s latest tonal and tactical shift (and almost certainly not the last) was driven by several factors, both personal and political. Trump learned that his close friend, 78-year-old New York real estate mogul Stan Chera, had contracted COVID-19 and fallen into a coma at NewYork-Presbyterian. “Boy, did that hit home. Stan is like one of his best friends,” said prominent New York Trump donor Bill White. Trump also grew concerned as the virus spread to Trump country. “The polling sucked. The campaign panicked about the numbers in red states. They don’t expect to win states that are getting blown to pieces with coronavirus,” a former West Wing official told me. From the beginning of the crisis, Trump had struggled to see it as anything other than a political problem, subject to his usual arsenal of tweets and attacks and bombast. But he ultimately realized that as bad as the stock market was, getting coronavirus wrong would end his presidency. “The campaign doesn’t matter anymore,” he recently told a friend, “what I do now will determine if I get reelected.”

 

"A former West Wing official told me." Sounds like that came right out of the DNC.  This is nothing but pure political speculation.

Oh, sure I understand the political nature of the source, but that doesn't mean it's incorrect.  Of course, I posted it because it fits what I was saying a month ago based on my observations of trump, and from someone (me) who has been both (mainly) critical and (sometimes) supportive.