The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[billsfan1959]

3 hours ago, Gary Busey said:

Indeed - which is why people are rightfully upset the government dragged their feet throughout January and February.

 

31 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Serious question.

 

It is clear that everyone recognized there was a real problem in China by the end of January. However, here is a timeline. tell us:

1. At which point in January and February (your timeframe) should the administration and other leaders around the world have reasonably known the magnitude of what was coming worlwide?

2. What specific information are you basing your answer on?

 

Timeline

 

On December 31, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan

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On January 7, the WHO reported that China had identified a new virus, named 2019-nCoV, and that it was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.

 

On Jan 11, China announced its first death from the virus released the genetic sequence. However, it was also accompanied with the information that they had only experienced 41 cases and that there was no obvious evidence of human-to-human spread yet. 

 

By Jan 17, China had reported only 2 deaths and only two cases had been identified outside of China

 

On Jan 20, First US case is reported

 

On January 23, The WHO reported that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.

 

On Jan 20, Trump forms coronavirus task force

 

On January 30, the WHO declared the virus a global emergency and reported the death toll in China at 170, with 7,711 cases.

 

On Jan 31, President Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China within the prior two weeks.

 

By Feb 3, new cases had been confirmed in at least 7 countries, including the US; however, there had been only 1 death reported outside of China. That was in the Phillipines and it was a man from Wuhan.

 

By Feb 6, only 30 people in Europe had been identified with the virus and all had ties to China. This is also the date of the first identified human to human transmission of the virus in Malasia.

 

On Feb 12, cases start to spike in South Korea

 

Through the end of Feb, there had been 88,000 confirmed cases - but only 8000 confirmed cases outside of China. There were 2977 deaths - but only 142 outside of China

 

Between Mar 1 - Mar 10 approx 35,000 new cases identified outside of China, and 1,319 deaths world-wide outside of China

 

On Mar 11, the WHO officiallly declares a pandemic

 

On Mar 11, President Trump bans all travel from 26 European countries for non-US citizens and non-green card holders

 

By Mar 11, There were 32,000 confirmed cases and 1,400 deaths, world-wide, outside of China and South Korea - with both China and Korea reporting stabilazation of the virus.

 

On Mar 13, Trump declares a US national emergency with 2,183 confirmed cases and 48 deaths

 

Still waiting for an answer, Gary.....

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, Capco said:

One good example of that is the Black Death.  The economies of Europe and Asia boomed for decades afterwards because there were suddenly a lot of job openings and still a lot of aggregate demand despite the population loss.  

 

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[Buffalo_Gal]

 

 

 

 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

just me but... i would definitely check to see if they were contaminated.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

 

 

Thank you for posting this. With so much misinformation out there, I'm really interested to know if these figures are true. It seems to me that people are only looking forward, and not looking back to see if their projections were accurate.  Looking forward worked at the beginning, but now a few weeks into this it's time to do some assessment.

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Hard pass. Hard. 
 

Privacy isn’t a flag to be waved. It’s an innate civil liberty which has already been under assault. Using this crisis as an excuse to chip away more of it only proves you learned nothing from 2001. Nothing. 
 

You’ll get shooting in the streets before you get the majority of Americans to agree to anything as draconian as what you’re suggesting or what Germany tried. 

? how do you get society to give up their inalienable rights?

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Foxx

[meazza]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

 

 

 

The models may not be perfect but they all point to a potential catastrophe if this isn't controlled.

 

Stop trying to spin this.  It's hurting everyone but this has to be done.  

[Capco]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

Do you want to try to answer the question in your own words? And please be specific.

 

It's a very simple comparison between South Korea and the United States.  South Korea's response has been exemplary, while ours has fallen short in many areas.  If we both had access to the same information (we did unless you think the South Koreans have a superior intelligence apparatus), and the same levels of resources, then our responses should have been comparable. 

 

Yes the US has far more people but we also have far, far more resources than South Korea does.  This means our response, if anything, should have been superior to South Korea, and yet it was inferior.  The reason for that discrepancy is the leadership at the federal level in a time of crisis, a responsibility which falls squarely upon the office of the President.  

[B-Man]

 

ARMCHAIR QUARTERBACKS TRY TO REWRITE HISTORY ON CORONAVIRUS:

 

“This morning, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough claimed that, unlike the Trump administration, ‘Everybody saw this coming in early January.’ If Scarborough knew that a deadly, once-in-a-century pandemic was about to descend on the nation in early January — I assume he considers himself part of ‘everyone’ — why on God’s earth didn’t he warn his susceptible viewers that they should begin social distancing?

 

Why didn’t his producers book a single expert who could beseech his viewers to start wearing masks, to shutter their non-essential businesses, and to avoid church and sporting events? Why didn’t he mention coronavirus at all? Even in late January, nearly a full month after ‘everyone knew,’ Scarborough’s show was dominated by the Donald Trump impeachment trial.”

 

 

 

Related: Despite Impeachment and Corona, MSNBC’s Ratings Are Stagnant.

 

 

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[meazza]

Just now, Capco said:

 

It's a very simple comparison between South Korea and the United States.  South Korea's response has been exemplary, while ours has fallen short in many areas.  If we both had access to the same information (we did unless you think the South Koreans have a superior intelligence apparatus), and the same levels of resources, then our responses should have been comparable. 

 

Yes the US has far more people but we also have far, far more resources than South Korea does.  This means our response, if anything, should have been superior to South Korea, and yet it was inferior.  The reason for that discrepancy is the leadership at the federal level in a time of crisis, a responsibility which falls squarely upon the office of the President.  

 

You cannot compare the US to South Korea or any Asian country.  They have experience with this kind of stuff directly and also have a society that is much more likely to follow orders in a time of crisis.

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, Capco said:

 

It's a very simple comparison between South Korea and the United States.  South Korea's response has been exemplary, while ours has fallen short in many areas.  If we both had access to the same information (we did unless you think the South Koreans have a superior intelligence apparatus), and the same levels of resources, then our responses should have been comparable. 

 

Yes the US has far more people but we also have far, far more resources than South Korea does.  This means our response, if anything, should have been superior to South Korea, and yet it was inferior.  The reason for that discrepancy is the leadership at the federal level in a time of crisis, a responsibility which falls squarely upon the office of the President.  

 

Only a lunatic compares South Korea to the entire United States and thinks it's a valid comparison. 

[Capco]

6 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

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Honestly that was my reaction too when I first read about it.  But the analysis is very interesting.  

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

The models may not be perfect but they all point to a potential catastrophe if this isn't controlled.

 

Stop trying to spin this.  It's hurting everyone but this has to be done.  

Comparing actual numbers against the projection model is "spinning?"   Yeah, ok.

 

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, Capco said:

 

Honestly that was my reaction too when I first read about it.  But the analysis is very interesting.  

 

It's bull####, Capco. Comparing the MEDIEVAL EUROPEAN AND ASIAN economies to the 21st century is utterly moronic on EVERY level. As a student of history, it's one of the more astoundingly stupid points raised to date.

 

So of course you found it interesting. 

[meazza]

Just now, Buffalo_Gal said:

Comparing actual numbers against the projection model is "spinning?"   Yeah, ok.

 

 

It's next to impossible to predict the precise numbers, the goal is to project the trend and if the trend is increasing, you need to lockdown.

[Capco]

2 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

You cannot compare the US to South Korea or any Asian country.  They have experience with this kind of stuff directly and also have a society that is much more likely to follow orders in a time of crisis.

 

1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Only a lunatic compares South Korea to the entire United States and thinks it's a valid comparison. 

 

Yes you can.  They are both countries.  Countries are compared to one another all the time regardless of size or background.  

 

You don't get to decide that lol.  

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, Capco said:

 

 

Yes you can.  They are both countries.  Countries are compared to one another all the time regardless of size or background.  

 

You don't get to decide that lol.  

 

You can -- but you shouldn't. Unless you're a lunatic looking for any convoluted excuse to dunk on Trump. 

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

It's a very simple comparison between South Korea and the United States.  South Korea's response has been exemplary, while ours has fallen short in many areas.  If we both had access to the same information (we did unless you think the South Koreans have a superior intelligence apparatus), and the same levels of resources, then our responses should have been comparable. 

 

Yes the US has far more people but we also have far, far more resources than South Korea does.  This means our response, if anything, should have been superior to South Korea, and yet it was inferior.  The reason for that discrepancy is the leadership at the federal level in a time of crisis, a responsibility which falls squarely upon the office of the President.  

 

I asked two questions of Gary, which you chose to respond to. Your response was inadequate, to say the least, and now you provide the above response.

 

It is clear, from both of your responses, that you are having difficulty comprehending what I was asking. So, I am going to repost the questions one more time.

 

1. At which point in January and February (your timeframe) should the administration and other leaders around the world have reasonably known the magnitude of what was coming worlwide?

2. What specific information are you basing your answer on?

 

Those are the questions. Sit and study them for awhile, feel free to look at the timeline I provided, look up information on your own if you want, and then just shout out the answer when it comes to you.

Edited April 2, 2020 by billsfan1959

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

 

Yes you can.  They are both countries.  Countries are compared to one another all the time regardless of size or background.  

 

You don't get to decide that lol.  

 

You can but you would fail in your analysis.  Again, South Korea is a country like Japan in which most people already wear masks, already clean after themselves and are already mobilized for this kind of event based on their history.  

 

That's why your comparison is a failure.