The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[BuffaloHokie13]

11 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

 

My post yesterday for NYPD

 

 

And today

Positive tests went from 98 to 100...

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's been doubling roughly every 3 days.

 

In 2 weeks it may have doubled 4 more times.

 

If that happens, confirmed cases will be up around 650,000 to 700,000 cases. 

Except it looks like it’s only growing by around 8000/day.  At that rate there will only be another 120,000 cases in 2 weeks.

[3rdnlng]

Many NYC residents have summer homes upstate and in WNY. For those that may be unaware, Chautauqua Institution on Lake Chautauqua is a fabled community founded on religion and the arts. Homes were built starting in the mid 1800's in a mostly Victorian style but right on top of each other. Having a parking space next to your residence is almost a luxury. The "season" lasts for 9 weeks in the Summer and the whole community is gated during that time. The rest of the year the gates are open to anyone to sight see. Well, guess what? Residents who live mainly in NYC and some from other places are coming to the Institution and opening up their home in order to wait out the virus there. As of yesterday there were no confirmed cases of coronavirus in the county. There were a small number of people under observation. Just recently the Grounds had to put their gate system into play because the traffic had increased to the point that traffic control was needed. Gotta spread that virus!

 

Stopped in a liquor store yesterday in NY and it was busier than normal. When asked, the clerk told me they were inundated with customers from PA & OH. I know PA liquor stores are closed and Chautauqua County is adjacent to counties in PA. I'm not sure about OH but there are a ton of people from OH with summer homes on the lake. This is not what we need to do to control this virus. People should stay home if they are under orders to do so and stupid regulations like closing the PA State Stores in PA by Tom Wolfe just contribute to the spread. Is anyone thinking about unintended consequences of their actions? Maybe now was not the right time to mandate reusable grocery bags in NY? 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Except it looks like it’s only growing by around 8000/day.  At that rate there will only be another 120,000 cases in 2 weeks.

 

As I said, it doubles every 3 days.

 

A week ago it grew by 1,500 cases. 

 

Yesterday there were 8,000 cases.

 

In 3 more days it will be growing by 16,000 cases a day. 

 

3 days after that it will be 32,000 cases a day. 

[billsfan1959]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

As I said, it doubles every 3 days.

 

A week ago it grew by 1,500 cases. 

 

Yesterday there were 8,000 cases.

 

In 3 more days it will be growing by 16,000 cases a day. 

 

3 days after that it will be 32,000 cases a day. 

 

And, eventually, the world will end....

[TPS]

9 hours ago, mannc said:

That’s not exponential growth.  The last four days the number of new cases (whatever that means) has remained about the same.

Based on those numbers provided, the change in cases starting from March 18th through 22nd  (the numbers for 3/23 were not for full day) are:

4469  (3/19)

5534

6977

8536  (3/22)

 

The number of new cases have not "remained about the same."

Estimating the growth rate of total cases (starting on 3/12 to 3/22), it's about 35%, which means total cases are doubling every 2.3 days. Given the lack of testing in many places and NYC's influence on the numbers, I'm sure NYC is driving the aggregate data.  It would be interesting to extract the NYC data from the US total and compare.

 

 

 

 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Now you like math?

i'm a big fan of math. studied it with some seriousness. were you aware that equations need to have correct input in order to have correct output?

[jrober38]

7 minutes ago, TPS said:

Based on those numbers provided, the change in cases starting from March 18th through 22nd  (the numbers for 3/23 were not for full day) are:

4469  (3/19)

5534

6977

8536  (3/22)

 

The number of new cases have not "remained about the same."

Estimating the growth rate of total cases (starting on 3/12 to 3/22), it's about 35%, which means total cases are doubling every 2.3 days. Given the lack of testing in many places and NYC's influence on the numbers, I'm sure NYC is driving the aggregate data.  It would be interesting to extract the NYC data from the US total and compare.

 

Exactly.

 

Cases went up by 8,000 ONE DAY.

The number literally gets bigger every day.

 

In 3 days it will likely be 16,000 new cases. 

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

i'm a big fan of math. studied it with some seriousness. were you aware that equations need to have correct input in order to have correct output?

What is zero divided by infinity?

[3rdnlng]

4 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

What is zero divided by infinity?

I'll get back to you. This one is going to take awhile. 

[Foxx]

13 hours ago, mannc said:

People can argue all day about what the number of "cases" is and whether we are under-counting those by not testing enough.  But what really matters is how many people get really sick or die from the virus and right now, that number is not very high (relatively speaking) anywhere.  Italy has a much older population than almost any other country, which is why they are particularly vulnerable to seasonal flu.  

 

I'm all in favor of social distancing and taking reasonable precautions such as restricting bar and restaurant business, but the current state of our knowledge about CV19 does not justify the economic suicide we are committing.  BTW, it's incredible that mass transit is still operating in NY and other cities.  That has to be the most massive vector for transmission of the virus and is probably the single reason why NYC has so many cases. 

 

this is your classic catch 22. damned if you do and damned if you don't.

 

there are really only two options:

1) we as a society do nothing to prevent it's spread.

2) we as a society try everything we can to prevent it's spread.

 

which essentially presents us with one of four outcomes:

1) the virus is deadly and we as a society do nothing to prevent it's spread.

2) the virus is deadly and we as a society try everything we can to prevent it's spread.

3) the virus is not that deadly and we as a society do nothing to prevent it's spread.

4) the virus is not that deadly and we as a society try everything we can to prevent it's spread.

 

of which only option 3 is desirable. the other 3 have ramifications that go beyond just what is topically seen. those other 3 all present their own unique problem sets. 

 

unforeseen problems, unanticipated problems, ill conceived solutions will be the order of the day.

 

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Foxx

[Foxx]

13 hours ago, jrober38 said:

... In a world with 7.5 billion people, many of them are carrying around influenza right now, spreading it to other people all over the globe. It's been around for thousands of years. 

 

COVID-19 started with one person in China, who has slowly been spreading it all over the world. It's been around for 4 months. 

 

There's an obvious difference as to why corona virus hasn't killed as many people yet. 

false equivalency.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Foxx

[TPS]

8 hours ago, Hedge said:

 

If that's intended as a slight, the tweet is the beginning of a thread and is far from the conclusion that he reached.

Sarcasm for those who diss experts...

[Foxx]

13 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

How do you know?

 

The mortality rate in Italy is 8%.

 

In Spain it's 6%. 

 

This thing hasn't even hit hard yet. In two weeks when NYC hospitals are completely overwhelmed and people are dying in the hallways the death rate is going to begin to rise. 

no. no it's not.

[TPS]

14 minutes ago, Foxx said:

no. no it's not.

It's a race against the exponential growth in cases and the ability to increase the number of ICU units and respirators.  Right now, the former is winning, so most likely the CFR will rise, but hopefully not to the levels seen in Italy or Spain.

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, TPS said:

It's a race against the exponential growth in cases and the ability to increase the number of ICU units and respirators.  Right now, the former is winning, so most likely the CFR will rise, but hopefully not to the levels seen in Italy or Spain.

 

How seriously are you taking social distancing? Here, we are completely locked down.  Even if you wanted to do something, everything is closed.  

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

How seriously are you taking social distancing? Here, we are completely locked down.  Even if you wanted to do something, everything is closed.  

Is that true in all parts of Italy, or just the north?  What about Sicily?  
 

Here is depends where you are.  Some cities and states are more or less locked down and some are not.  

Edited March 24, 2020 by mannc

[B-Man]

TREATMENTS: These Drugs Are Helping Our Coronavirus Patients:

 

A flash of potential good news from the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic: A treatment is showing promise. Doctors in France, South Korea and the U.S. are using an antimalarial drug known as hydroxychloroquine with success. We are physicians treating patients with Covid-19, and the therapy appears to be making a difference. It isn’t a silver bullet, but if deployed quickly and strategically the drug could potentially help bend the pandemic’s “hockey stick” curve.

 

Hydroxychloroquine is a common generic drug used to treat lupus, arthritis and malaria. The medication, whose brand name is Plaquenil, is relatively safe, with the main side effect being stomach irritation, though it can cause echocardiogram and vision changes. In 2005, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study showed that chloroquine, an analogue, could block a virus from penetrating a cell if administered before exposure. If tissue had already been infected, the drug inhibited the virus.

 

On March 9 a team of researchers in China published results showing hydroxychloroquine was effective against the 2019 coronavirus in a test tube. The authors suggested a five-day, 12-pill treatment for Covid-19: two 200-milligram tablets twice a day on the first day followed by one tablet twice a day for four more days.

 

A more recent French study used the drug in combination with azithromycin. Most Americans know azithromycin as the brand name Zithromax Z-Pak, prescribed for upper respiratory infections. The Z-Pak alone doesn’t appear to help fight Covid-19, and the findings of combination treatment are preliminary.

 

But researchers in France treated a small number of patients with both hydroxychloroquine and a Z-Pak, and 100% of them were cured by day six of treatment. Compare that with 57.1% of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine alone, and 12.5% of patients who received neither.

What’s more, most patients cleared the virus in three to six days rather than the 20 days observed in China. That reduces the time a patient can spread the virus to others. One lesson that should inform the U.S. approach: Use this treatment cocktail early, and don’t wait until a patient is on a ventilator in the intensive-care unit.

 

A couple of careful studies of hydroxychloroquine are in progress, but the results may take weeks or longer. Infectious-disease experts are already using hydroxychloroquine clinically with some success. With our colleague Dr. Joe Brewer in Kansas City, Mo., we are using hydroxychloroquine in two ways: to treat patients and as prophylaxis to protect health-care workers from infection. . . . As a matter of clinical practice, hydroxychloroquine should be given early to patients who test positive, and perhaps if Covid-19 is presumed—in the case of ill household contacts, for instance.

 

 

 

Good. Sounds promising.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Moving Past the Quarantine

by Arpit Gupta

Original Article

 

 

 

 

 

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[meazza]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Is that true in all parts of Italy, or just the north?  What about Sicily?  
 

Here is depends where you are.  Some states are more or less locked down and some are not.  

 

I am Italian but I live in Montreal.  We are allowed to leave our homes but social distancing will be enforced on the streets.  The numbers are encouraging here as we expected a peak as this was a result of cases originating from the week after spring break when everyone returned from spring break but no social distancing was practiced.  

 

After two weeks of being relatively locked down, I wouldn't be surprised that the amount of new cases drops.

[B-Man]

 

 Surgeon General Tells U.S.: ‘This Week It’s Going To Get Bad.’

 

 

 

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Continues to Facilitate Access to Crucial Medical Products, Including Ventilators.

 

 

 

 

 

DEREGULATION: FDA issues temporary hand sanitizer guidelines. 

 

 

 

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