The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

You don't seem to understand how pandemics spread.

 

Everyone doesn't get it the same time. It spreads.

 

Person A gives COVID-19 to 3 people (the average transmission based off data I've seen), who each give it to 3 people, who each give it to 3 people, etc.

 

By the time it's been transmitted 10 times, 30,000 people have it. 

That's how this thing will spread.

 

45,000 people (knowingly) have it right now in the US. In a few days after each of them have given it to 3 more people, 135,000 people will have it.

 

A few days after that 400,000 people will have it.

 

In a month if the curve isn't flatter, millions of people might have it, and tens of thousands will be dead. 

 

Right how seeing as well. Great post. NYC getting hit the most. Just started as well. Plus we were behind other countries in cases then USA is in third now. 

 

As well are in critical condition, icu, ventilator, some people lost a lung etc.  (younger people in icu among older people icu struggling) Among other health problems. All still in early process (getting started in this). Not even close to tip of iceberg yet. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, SirAndrew said:

You make a great point about defining “cases”, and you are 100% percent correct. If we are saying Covid 19 mortality rate is anywhere between 1-5%, it’s probably much lower in comparison to actual cases. However, if we are saying that the mortally rate for seasonal flu is 0.02%, that is probably actually lower as well. How many people with the flu aren’t defined as “cases”? The last time I had the flu I didn’t go to the doctor, so I wouldn’t be a case. Using that metric, Covid 19 is still worse than the flu. I do agree the rate of fatalities is probably much lower than what we think. It’s certainly not a death sentence. Things are a bit hysterical right now because Italy has a terrible mortality rate. Germany’s is less than 1%. 

 

THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I had the flu twice between December and January.

 

Didn't go to the doctor either time.

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

You don't seem to understand how pandemics spread.

 

Everyone doesn't get it the same time. It spreads.

 

Person A gives COVID-19 to 3 people (the average transmission based off data I've seen), who each give it to 3 people, who each give it to 3 people, etc.

 

By the time it's been transmitted 10 times, 30,000 people have it. 

That's how this thing will spread.

 

45,000 people (knowingly) have it right now in the US. In a few days after each of them have given it to 3 more people, 135,000 people will have it.

 

A few days after that 400,000 people will have it.

 

In a month if the curve isn't flatter, millions of people might have it, and tens of thousands will be dead. 

I understand how pandemics spread.  But this virus hasn't been behaving that way.   Why haven't millions (or even tens of thousands) died in Iran or China where the disease has been around for four months or more?  Why are there only seven deaths in the entire state of Texas two months into the "crisis"?      

[meazza]

Every single country that has taken this disease lightly has paid a heavy cost.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

You don't seem to understand how pandemics spread.

 

Everyone doesn't get it the same time. It spreads.

 

Person A gives COVID-19 to 3 people (the average transmission based off data I've seen), who each give it to 3 people, who each give it to 3 people, etc.

 

By the time it's been transmitted 10 times, 30,000 people have it. 

That's how this thing will spread.

 

45,000 people (knowingly) have it right now in the US. In a few days after each of them have given it to 3 more people, 135,000 people will have it.

 

A few days after that 400,000 people will have it.

 

In a month if the curve isn't flatter, millions of people might have it, and tens of thousands will be dead. 

 

I believe he understands how a pandemic works. His point was that, as of now, there is no actual evidence it will result in "millions and millions of deaths" as you put it. 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Right how seeing as well. Great post. NYC getting hit the most. Just started as well. Plus we were behind other countries in cases then USA is in third now. 

 

As well are in critical condition, icu, some people lost a lung etc.  (younger people in icu among older people struggling) Among other health problems. All still in early process (getting started in this). Not even close to tip of iceberg yet. 

 

The tsunami of sick people is going to hit in late April or early May. 

 

By then there will millions, if not tens of millions of cases in the US and at that point no one will be comparing it to the flu. 

 

It will touch every part of America, and I read somewhere that like 40% of rural hospitals don't have a single ventilator, and if you make it to an ICU with this virus you can't survive without a ventilator. 

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

I understand how pandemics spread.  But this virus hasn't been behaving that way.   Why haven't millions (or even tens of thousands) died in Iran or China where the disease has been around for four months or more?  Why are there only seven deaths in the entire state of Texas two months into the "crisis"?      

 

China shut down the entire country. People were not allowed outside their home. 

[meazza]

Just now, Gary Busey said:

 

China shut down the entire country. People were not allowed outside their home. 

That’s incorrect they shut down two provinces.

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The tsunami of sick people is going to hit in late April or early May. 

 

By then there will millions, if not tens of millions of cases in the US and at that point no one will be comparing it to the flu. 

 

It will touch every part of America, and I read somewhere that like 40% of rural hospitals don't have a single ventilator, and if you make it to an ICU with this virus you can't survive without a ventilator. 

 

Actually, 20 - 30 million people do get the flu each year.

 

"CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza"

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Edited March 24, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Actually, 20 - 30 million people do get the flu each year.

 

Ya lot's of people get the flu each other. Flu was bad this year. Feel for everyone. But i'm sick comparing it to the flu. It is it's own problem. 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

I understand how pandemics spread.  But this virus hasn't been behaving that way.   Why haven't millions (or even tens of thousands) died in Iran or China where the disease has been around for four months or more?  Why are there only seven deaths in the entire state of Texas two months into the "crisis"?      

 

Because this virus has existed for only 3-4 months. There are way more people with it than there are confirmed cases. There aren't enough tests. 

 

Also, people walk around with this for 5-14 days before showing symptoms. The average fatality is about 17 days after contracting the disease. 

 

In 17 more days, Texas will be in a significantly worse state than it is right now relating to COVID-19. 

 

In a month there are going to be exponentially more cases across America and exponentially more deaths. 

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

You make a great point about defining “cases”, and you are 100% percent correct. If we are saying Covid 19 mortality rate is anywhere between 1-5%, it’s probably much lower in comparison to actual cases. However, if we are saying that the mortally rate for seasonal flu is 0.02%, that is probably actually lower as well. How many people with the flu aren’t defined as “cases”? The last time I had the flu I didn’t go to the doctor, so I wouldn’t be a case. Using that metric, Covid 19 is still worse than the flu. I do agree the rate of fatalities is probably much lower than what we think. It’s certainly not a death sentence. Things are a bit hysterical right now because Italy has a terrible mortality rate. Germany’s is less than 1%. 

People can argue all day about what the number of "cases" is and whether we are under-counting those by not testing enough.  But what really matters is how many people get really sick or die from the virus and right now, that number is not very high (relatively speaking) anywhere.  Italy has a much older population than almost any other country, which is why they are particularly vulnerable to seasonal flu.  

 

I'm all in favor of social distancing and taking reasonable precautions such as restricting bar and restaurant business, but the current state of our knowledge about CV19 does not justify the economic suicide we are committing.  BTW, it's incredible that mass transit is still operating in NY and other cities.  That has to be the most massive vector for transmission of the virus and is probably the single reason why NYC has so many cases. 

 

[Hardhatharry]

Just now, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Ya lot's of people get the flu each other. Flu was bad this year. Feel for everyone. But i'm sick comparing it to the flu. It is it's own problem. 

Only dumb people compare it to the flu and in PPP there is no shortage of those...

[SirAndrew]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

I understand how pandemics spread.  But this virus hasn't been behaving that way.   Why haven't millions (or even tens of thousands) died in Iran or China where the disease has been around for four months or more?  Why are there only seven deaths in the entire state of Texas two months into the "crisis"?      

China locked down Hubei in a way that would never work in America. They literally dragged screaming people out of their homes. Plus, do you actually trust China’s numbers? I’m not sure I believe it’s even over. Their lies started this mess. Additionally, if Texas did a good job of tracing and quarantine, that’s why only seven deaths.
 

Pandemics work in clusters, NYC is the main cluster right now. These same clusters existed with every pandemic. We read history textbooks about things like the Spanish Flu, and think all of America was under siege. Someone in Philly had a much different experience from a farmer in Iowa, because they weren’t in the cluster. Therefore, Texas could survive an entire pandemic with less than one hundred deaths, while New York could lose hundreds of thousands. 

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I believe he understands how a pandemic works. His point was that, as of now, there is no actual evidence it will result in "millions and millions of deaths" as you put it. 

 

You're ignoring the fact that exponentially more people are going to have it in 4 weeks than have it now. 

 

And regarding the deaths I'm talking about the entire world. 

 

All of the experts maintain this is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu. I trust them. 

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, meazza said:

That’s incorrect they shut down two provinces.

And China was criticized for not acting quickly enough. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

 I trust them. 

 

And that right there is the problem. A whole lot of sheeple "trust them."

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

And China was criticized for not acting quickly enough. 

 

It's a fact they didn't act quickly enough.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Ya lot's of people get the flu each other. Flu was bad this year. Feel for everyone. But i'm sick comparing it to the flu. It is it's own problem. 

 

I'm not comparing it to the flu. My point was to those people who act as if the flu is nothing at all.

 

As to this virus, I have no idea how it will end and neither does anyone else. I just don't see the usefulness of people running around predicting millions and millions of deaths

 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

You're ignoring the fact that exponentially more people are going to have it in 4 weeks than have it now. 

 

And regarding the deaths I'm talking about the entire world. 

 

All of the experts maintain this is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu. I trust them. 

According to the WHO, every year 500,000 to 600,000 people die worldwide of the seasonal flu.  Four months into this crises, we've got about 11,000 deaths from CV19 worldwide.  Something is wrong with the experts' projections.