The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[John Adams]

1 hour ago, BillsFanNC said:

 I don't doubt the data. It was a good idea to get vaccinated for almost everyone when they were tolled out and it is still a good idea for those with comorbidities.

 

Still the data you cite is deaths per 100k and the vaccines are indeed effective at lowering risk for hospitalizations and death.  But deaths per 100k is not a metric used to label an outbreak as a pandemic.  The current vaccines no longer offer anywhere near the efficacy in preventing infection or transmission that they did for wild type covid.  So the political slogan "pandemic of the unvaccinated"  is just that...a political slogan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The underlined is correct. The measure is excess deaths, which are still happening. 

 

I'm anti-mandates but we are still technically in the pandemic. Getting closer to dropping under the threshold but still well above. The chart to watch is here to judge when we are back to the old baseline of deaths. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

 With that correction, now I'm out for a bit!

 

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by John Adams

[Boatdrinks]

4 hours ago, John Adams said:

Why did Americans die at such a high rate of Covid?

 

We fat!

 

"Across 168 countries for which data were available, higher obesity prevalence was associated with increased COVID-19 mortality and prevalence rates. For every 1% increase in obesity prevalence, the mortality rate was increased by 8.3% (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.083, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.048-1.119; P < 0.001) and the case rate was higher by 6.6% (IRR 1.066, 95% CI 1.035-1.099; P < 0.001). "

 

https://dom-pubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dom.14523

 

'Merica, at the top of the civilized world in diabetes and Covid. 

 

 

This was the unmentionable truth among the media. The fat were / are the most at risk. A pandemic of the fat was never used though. 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Boatdrinks

[Doc]

3 hours ago, John Adams said:

Do you doubt that it's a pandemic of the unvaccinated? 

 

Take a look at the bottom line. 

 

 

It's always been a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, John Adams said:

 

Realization? Uhh, no. 

 

Just a reminder. 

 

America = fat. 

That's your takeaway? What this should have told you is that the Public Health Officials new an awful lot of the specific segments of the population that were at higher risk and did little to nothing to warn them, or un-warn those that didn't fit within those segments. They instead went with a very lazy one size fits all version of The Science. Really pathetic. 

[TSOL]

3 hours ago, John Adams said:

 

Do you doubt that it's a pandemic of the unvaccinated? 

 

Take a look at the bottom line. 

 

 

 

I doubt it's a pandemic of the unvaccinated as I am unvaccinated. 

 

Watches all my vaccinated friends and family get laid up with omnicrom 

 

While I kept chugging along. 

 

I had it 10/19 l, really bad, got over it, and went on with my life. 

 

The vaccine has been a placebo and inconsequential to the virus. The virus simply ran it's course. 

 

That's my real life experience, cool chart though 

 

 

Also, just checked. 65% vaccination rate in the US 

[Chef Jim]

18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

That's your takeaway? What this should have told you is that the Public Health Officials new an awful lot of the specific segments of the population that were at higher risk and did little to nothing to warn them, or un-warn those that didn't fit within those segments. They instead went with a very lazy one size fits all version of The Science. Really pathetic. 

 

So what should have happened is that instead of political talking heads that 50% of the population will never agree with telling people (mainly fat people) to get vaccinated.   This should have come from the medical community and I'm not talking Dr Fauci.  I'm talking about people's personal physician...if they have one.  My doctor told me a few years ago that I needed to get my vitamin D levels up.  He told me, in a very understandable way, why this was important.  I have bloodwork done twice an year and that was the area (along with my A1C) that he really focused on.  Well guess what.  My D levels have been great for a couple years now.  So here's a question for all of you.  How hard did your PCP push you to get the vaccine?  Mine didn't. Before I got it he asked and I said "no".  All he told me was that the vaccine was very safe.  He never told me about why I SHOULD get it.  He only told me why I SHOULDN'T be afraid of getting it.  I wasn't afraid.  I had other reasons.  But the bottom line is he never had a real personal conversation with me regarding it. 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Chef Jim

[Big Blitz]

 

[ALF]

China's new Covid lockdowns are another threat to the economy

 

Shenzhen, an important tech hub, has entered a weeklong lockdown after the city recorded 66 positive cases on Saturday. All businesses except those deemed essential have paused operations or have implemented working from home. Shanghai, China's largest business center, has also imposed stringent measures following a spike in cases, closing schools and movie theaters and restricting travel into the city.

 

Lockdowns in China could further drive up container shipping costs, which remain extremely high, and scramble global supply chains that are still trying to sort through pandemic-related delays.

 

"If there is a case found in the Yantian port [in Shenzhen], then there could be a port suspension for at least two weeks," economists at ING told clients Monday. "That will then affect exports and imports of electronic parts and goods."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/14/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

[All_Pro_Bills]

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

The test is not flawed.  And the assumption is the objective is to detest active infections.  The virus lives and is active in the host for 5 to 7 days.  A true positive test would have to be performed in that 7 day window.  But the PCR test identifies the existence of viral material in the sample nasal swab and it can be active or inactive.  The test does not differentiate.  But the sensitivity, or amplification rate, of the test can be altered either lower or higher to produce less or more positives.  Setting the amplification rate of the test sample higher produces positives for viral DNA that can be fragments or dead viral material that is present but does not represent an active infection.  This "flaw" was and is known by everyone familiar with the PCR test.  So scientists or officials intentionally setting and insisting on the high amplification rate knew what they're doing and to me that implies intent.  The government didn't follow the science.  They ignored it.  I've read articles that suggest up to 70% false positives. 

 

Many viral experts have brought this issue up during the course of the pandemic but of course they got shot down or were silenced.  So these admissions of ignorance and hindsight now reek of CYA.

Edited March 15, 2022 by All_Pro_Bills

[BillsFanNC]

2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The test is not flawed.  And the assumption is the objective is to detest active infections.  The virus lives and is active in the host for 5 to 7 days.  A true positive test would have to be performed in that 7 day window.  But the PCR test identifies the existence of viral material in the sample nasal swab and it can be active or inactive.  The test does not differentiate.  But the sensitivity, or amplification rate, of the test can be altered either lower or higher to produce less or more positives.  Setting the amplification rate of the test sample higher produces positives for viral DNA that can be fragments or dead viral material that is present but does not represent an active infection.  This "flaw" was and is known by everyone familiar with the PCR test.  So scientists or officials intentionally setting and insisting on the high amplification rate knew what they're doing and to me that implies intent.  The government didn't follow the science.  They ignored it.  I've read articles that suggest up to 70% false positives. 

 

Many viral experts have brought this issue up during the course of the pandemic but of course they got shot down or were silenced.  So these admissions of ignorance and hindsight now reek of CYA.

 

Yes. What you speak of here is the Ct or cycle threshold value used as a cutoff for positive or negative samples. Each cycle of a pcr test contains a series of steps which include rapidly raising and lowering the temperature of the sample that allow for the various biochemical reactions and processes to take place. Each complete cycle results in a doubling of the viral RNA target sequence present in the sample. Based on this principle you can understand that a sample with a lot of virus might only take 20 cycles before turning positive, and a sample containing only small amounts of intact virus or viral fragments would require many more cycles to generate enough target sequence to flag a positive. If you let a test run through enough cycles you can often genrrate false positive on viral fragments.

 

I've developed PCR tests for other pathogens and I've never seen a Ct value of anywhere near 40 used, yet that was the published Ct value used in many labs for covid. This definitely produced a ton of false positives. In my experience a Ct cutoff of 30-34 is more appropriate. The way you determine the cutoff value for a particular test or virus is by running clinical samples in viral culture alongside the PCR.  After running enough samples in both tests you'll find for example that anything >32 cycles does not produce positive viral culture results,  so 32 becomes the Ct value for the PCR assay. I'd love to see the viral culture data showing consistent culture positives on samples with Ct values of 37-39. Color me highly skeptical. 

 

Here's a link to the news article where  many of these issues are covered.

 

And yes , I brought up this issue very early on in the pandemic.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10606107/Did-flawed-tests-convince-Covid-worse-really-was.html

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by BillsFanNC

[Big Blitz]

Most in US say they’d go back to wearing masks if COVID cases rise again, poll finds

 

 

In fact, 3 in 4 U.S. residents say they’d return to masking up if virus infections ramp up where they live as of March 14, the latest Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index poll has found, as most states have lifted their mask mandates in recent weeks.

 

Most aren’t wearing masks when they go out anymore. A quarter of the country, 26%, says they’re “wearing a mask at all times when leaving the home,” the poll found. In comparison, this is a 43% drop from early February.

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article259420189.html

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Blitz]

Piece of garbage 

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

How nice..........

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

10 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

How nice..........

 

 

 

 

As my screen name shows, I live and work in and around Los Angeles. You can literally cross the street and be in another school district here. On the LAUSD side everyone is fully masked. On the other side everyone’s just going to school and making their own choices. That’s one very discriminatory virus!

[Chef Jim]

30 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

As my screen name shows, I live and work in and around Los Angeles. You can literally cross the street and be in another school district here. On the LAUSD side everyone is fully masked. On the other side everyone’s just going to school and making their own choices. That’s one very discriminatory virus!

I’m likely never doing business in LA again.  I’d love to boycott LA County altogether but we love Long Beach and can’t cross that off our list. 

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

I’m likely never doing business in LA again.  I’d love to boycott LA County altogether but we love Long Beach and can’t cross that off our list. 

I do work with LAUSD. They haven’t been in their offices since March 2020!!! Upper management just went back this past week. None of the employees want to go back. They’ve all gotten used to putting in the minimum amount of effort possible while ‘working’ from home. Shameful! 

[Big Blitz]

European countries lifted COVID restrictions ‘too brutally,’ says WHO regional head, allowing BA.2 variant to spread

 

 

European countries, including the U.K., Germany and France, lifted their COVID-19 restrictions “too brutally” and are now struggling with rising cases again as the highly transmissible BA.2 variant spreads, according to the European head of the World Health Organization.

 

The U.S. should pay attention to Europe’s numbers as throughout the pandemic a climb in cases there was followed by a spike in U.S. cases a few weeks later. Experts, including President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, have said that BA.2 will likely cause an uptick in cases in the coming weeks, even as states have moved to drop restrictions and public safety measures such as face masks.

 

https://on.mktw.net/3wxaFJo

 

[SoCal Deek]

Tomorrow, America will cross the ONE MILLION DEATH milestone. I’ll be very interested to see the tone of the discussion from both the media and the Biden Administration.

[Chef Jim]

18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Tomorrow, America will cross the ONE MILLION DEATH milestone. I’ll be very interested to see the tone of the discussion from both the media and the Biden Administration.

 

  You're funny. 

[Big Blitz]