The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

Ohio has about 11 million people.  Oregon has about 4, and has had some of the strictest quarantine rules, on a level with NY, maybe more (I have a buddy outside of Portland).

Their worst outbreak (fall) topped out at 1,500 new cases.  Ohio's worst (fall) topped out around 11,000.  Oregon had far less cases than the population difference can account for.

 

New cases, hospitalizations and death numbers are only partly affected by precautions.  Show me the numbers on compliance, unprecautioned house parties, gatherings, apathy, etc and maybe we could draw some larger conclusions.

 

The efficacy of masks and distancing are readily apparent to those of us who have kids attending schools or work in hospitals.  While some people fantasize the precautions can squash this, we would have to replicate what the Chinese enforced.

 

Since we aren't, it's simply about slowing spread.    It always has been.  Sad that politics hides that reality.

That's an interesting take but certainly doesn't tell the full story. It's widely accepted that if you impose/suggest really strict lock-downs that you'll SLOW the spread from person to person.  Obviously!   But...you won't STOP the spread short of sending people 'away' once infected.  What the numbers have proven is that if you sample long enough and over a large enough population that the numbers come out pretty much the same over time. Put another way, it all evens out. The virus has been in the blood stream for over a year now, circulating amongst a population of over 330 Million people. State by State the mortality rate has more or less averaged out, regardless of the many weather, policy, and population differences. The States that have SLOWED the spread more than others are all in the cul-de-sac extremities of the country where by virtue of their geographic location there's bound to be less person to person spread from the core of the 'body'. 

[Chef Jim]

13 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Because moving to the burbs so I talk about lawn care with the neighborhood cool dads and maybe hit the nearest Chili's on Fridays for date night with the missus sounds like a fate worse than never ending pandemic.

 

Living in SF was a fate worse than the pandemic.  Up to now my wife and I have emerged unscathed from the pandemic.  Our health living in the city?  Let's just say I was scared to death for a certain three months living there my wife was going to die.  

[GaryPinC]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

That's an interesting take but certainly doesn't tell the full story. It's widely accepted that if you impose/suggest really strict lock-downs that you'll SLOW the spread from person to person.  Obviously!   But...you won't STOP the spread short of sending people 'away' once infected.  What the numbers have proven is that if you sample long enough and over a large enough population that the numbers come out pretty much the same over time. Put another way, it all evens out. The virus has been in the blood stream for over a year now, circulating amongst a population of over 330 Million people. State by State the mortality rate has more or less averaged out, regardless of the many weather, policy, and population differences. The States that have SLOWED the spread more than others are all in the cul-de-sac extremities of the country where by virtue of their geographic location there's bound to be less person to person spread from the core of the 'body'. 

Yes, I agree completely.   We lost the ability to stop the spread in the first two months on when we had no solid infrastructure or cohesive response to contract trace.

For as bad as lockdowns were, we didn't take them far enough, China did though.  But, even if the majority of citizens had been receptive to this, I doubt we could have done the rapid contact tracing necessary.  

 

Again, many people fantasize that masks and distancing are going to knock this thing out but that's simply fallacy.  They do offer good protection though.  Even today this virus is still showing in India and Brazil the ability to overwhelm health systems.  That's what it all was really about and why the numbers even out over time.  You can't ask people to take these precautions forever, it's coming to an end, hopefully enough get vaccinated and natural immunity can control Covid.  Vaccination is up to the task if everyone would just get it done.  Plus, large vaccination should greatly reduce viral mutation.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Yes, I agree completely.   We lost the ability to stop the spread in the first two months on when we had no solid infrastructure or cohesive response to contract trace.

For as bad as lockdowns were, we didn't take them far enough, China did though.  But, even if the majority of citizens had been receptive to this, I doubt we could have done the rapid contact tracing necessary.  

 

Again, many people fantasize that masks and distancing are going to knock this thing out but that's simply fallacy.  They do offer good protection though.  Even today this virus is still showing in India and Brazil the ability to overwhelm health systems.  That's what it all was really about and why the numbers even out over time.  You can't ask people to take these precautions forever, it's coming to an end, hopefully enough get vaccinated and natural immunity can control Covid.  Vaccination is up to the task if everyone would just get it done.  Plus, large vaccination should greatly reduce viral mutation.

Agreed....but what a free country can do will always be different from what a Communist country can do. I, for one, wouldn't trade one for the other.  Not for a once in a century pandemic, anyway.  But that's just me.

[Chef Jim]

14 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Yes, I agree completely.   We lost the ability to stop the spread in the first two months on when we had no solid infrastructure or cohesive response to contract trace.

For as bad as lockdowns were, we didn't take them far enough, China did though.  But, even if the majority of citizens had been receptive to this, I doubt we could have done the rapid contact tracing necessary.  

 

Again, many people fantasize that masks and distancing are going to knock this thing out but that's simply fallacy.  They do offer good protection though.  Even today this virus is still showing in India and Brazil the ability to overwhelm health systems.  That's what it all was really about and why the numbers even out over time.  You can't ask people to take these precautions forever, it's coming to an end, hopefully enough get vaccinated and natural immunity can control Covid.  Vaccination is up to the task if everyone would just get it done.  Plus, large vaccination should greatly reduce viral mutation.

 

Honest question. Where is China in relationship to the US with regard to the pandemic?  

[Jauronimo]

14 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Living in SF was a fate worse than the pandemic.  Up to now my wife and I have emerged unscathed from the pandemic.  Our health living in the city?  Let's just say I was scared to death for a certain three months living there my wife was going to die.  

I live in the city of Houston.  All the ugly stuff is reserved for the bad parts of town. 

 

Texas got back on its feet quickly and I have been comfortable with the way the local businesses have handled it.  I've been going to bars and restaurants regularly since last May.  I avoid the young bars which were Covid hot spots and really only self-quarantined before we were going to be in contact with elderly members of our families.  

[Chef Jim]

31 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I live in the city of Houston.  All the ugly stuff is reserved for the bad parts of town. 

 

Texas got back on its feet quickly and I have been comfortable with the way the local businesses have handled it.  I've been going to bars and restaurants regularly since last May.  I avoid the young bars which were Covid hot spots and really only self-quarantined before we were going to be in contact with elderly members of our families.  

 

SF is the bad part of town!

 

And glad to see you avoided those bars where only young people hang.   Covid avoids the boomer bars.  

[Jauronimo]

Just now, Chef Jim said:

 

SF is the bad part of town!

 

And glad to see you avoided those bars where only young people hang.   Covid avoids the boomer bars.  

Boomer bars?  Only one of us here is a boomer.  I'm a millennial according to my date of birth.

 

The bars I avoided are known Covid hotspots among the early 20s crowds, as in I know multiple people who can trace Covid back to those bars which are all shutdown by the Texas liquor authority for breaking Covid protocols. 

 

Does Covid avoid hacky sack circles at Umphrees shows?

[GaryPinC]

57 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Honest question. Where is China in relationship to the US with regard to the pandemic?  

Well, my wife's Chinese with family still there and the mutual friend who introduced us is back in China also.  We talk to both regularly.  They have been full normal since April 2020, over the summer my friend said they require masks on public transportation but nowhere else.  I haven't yet asked him since then if they require masks at all now.

 

They still have infrequent cases, according to the NY Times tracker.  As in, a breakout is 30 to 100 new 24 hr cases for the entire 1.3 billion people.  They immediately contact trace and lock that area down.  To those who might suggest China is fudging/hiding numbers I would simply say you can't hide a pandemic for long in a nation with that size and population density.  Especially with few precautions.  They beat it.  2 months of true lockdowns and aggressive contact tracings and they beat it.

 

Compare that to our situation now.  Which is preferable?  I would argue the 2 months of strict lockdowns with aggressive contact tracings.

 

But many there don't trust Chinese science and haven't gotten their vaccines.  They're hoping for the Western vaccines.  😂

[Chef Jim]

2 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Boomer bars?  Only one of us here is a boomer.  I'm a millennial according to my date of birth.

 

The bars I avoided are known Covid hotspots among the early 20s crowds, as in I know multiple people who can trace Covid back to those bars which are all shutdown by the Texas liquor authority for breaking Covid protocols. 

 

Does Covid avoid hacky sack circles at Umphrees shows?

 

What Covid protocols did the 20s crowd bars break that the bars that you frequented observe?

 

And it's Umphrey's 

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Agreed....but what a free country can do will always be different from what a Communist country can do. I, for one, wouldn't trade one for the other.  Not for a once in a century pandemic, anyway.  But that's just me.

Sure, but in a free country I wish we had more wisdom and foresight to recognize a pandemic and step up to do what's needed to eliminate it quickly rather than having it forced.  Sadly a communist government was the only one to succeed.

 

Keep in mind this is not over yet.  Asymptomatic spread with the wrong mutations can change everything.  You take a chance leaving it in circulation hoping natural immunity will prevail.  It will in time, but normally very deadly mutations burn themselves out because it can't spread easily when the symptomatic host is quickly dead.  But the asymptomatic spread truly worries me.

[Chef Jim]

11 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Well, my wife's Chinese with family still there and the mutual friend who introduced us is back in China also.  We talk to both regularly.  They have been full normal since April 2020, over the summer my friend said they require masks on public transportation but nowhere else.  I haven't yet asked him since then if they require masks at all now.

 

They still have infrequent cases, according to the NY Times tracker.  As in, a breakout is 30 to 100 new 24 hr cases for the entire 1.3 billion people.  They immediately contact trace and lock that area down.  To those who might suggest China is fudging/hiding numbers I would simply say you can't hide a pandemic for long in a nation with that size and population density.  Especially with few precautions.  They beat it.  2 months of true lockdowns and aggressive contact tracings and they beat it.

 

Compare that to our situation now.  Which is preferable?  I would argue the 2 months of strict lockdowns with aggressive contact tracings.

 

But many there don't trust Chinese science and haven't gotten their vaccines.  They're hoping for the Western vaccines.  😂

 

What is a strict lockdown?

 

When you say there is no fudging of the numbers how can this be?  I just looked (and maybe I'm looking at the wrong numbers) but they show less than 5,000 deaths.  

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Chef Jim

[Jauronimo]

Just now, Chef Jim said:

 

What Covid protocols did the 20s crowd bars break that the bars that you frequented observe?

 

And it's Umphrey's 

Capacity protocols and mask requirements, among others.  Do you have a point or are you just trying to play "gotcha"?

[BillStime]

22 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Well, my wife's Chinese with family still there and the mutual friend who introduced us is back in China also.  We talk to both regularly.  They have been full normal since April 2020, over the summer my friend said they require masks on public transportation but nowhere else.  I haven't yet asked him since then if they require masks at all now.

 

They still have infrequent cases, according to the NY Times tracker.  As in, a breakout is 30 to 100 new 24 hr cases for the entire 1.3 billion people.  They immediately contact trace and lock that area down.  To those who might suggest China is fudging/hiding numbers I would simply say you can't hide a pandemic for long in a nation with that size and population density.  Especially with few precautions.  They beat it.  2 months of true lockdowns and aggressive contact tracings and they beat it.

 

Compare that to our situation now.  Which is preferable?  I would argue the 2 months of strict lockdowns with aggressive contact tracings.

 

But many there don't trust Chinese science and haven't gotten their vaccines.  They're hoping for the Western vaccines.  😂

Trump had to get reelected. He knew if he publicly acknowledged the severity of the virus - and advocated science - it would both ruin his “economy” and election chances.

 

Hence why Trump controlled the narrative and castrated science. 
 

Result? One of the worst infection and death rate of developed countries.  
 

We all lost. 

[Chef Jim]

13 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Capacity protocols and mask requirements, among others.  Do you have a point or are you just trying to play "gotcha"?

 

No I just have not been to hardly any bars that followed capacity or mask protocols.  Just sounds like your millennial bars are boring.  

4 minutes ago, BillStime said:

Trump had to get reelected. He knew if he publicly acknowledged the severity of the virus - and advocated science - it would both ruin his “economy” and election chances.

 

Hence why Trump controlled the narrative and castrated science. 
 

Result? One of the worst infection and death rate of developed countries.  
 

We all lost. 

 

The downside to a Republic with State Rights and greater freedoms.  I'll take those downsides every single  time.  You can go live in China.  I hear they only had 5,000 Covid deaths.  Sounds like your utopia.  

[Q-baby!]

39 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

No I just have not been to hardly any bars that followed capacity or mask protocols.  Just sounds like your millennial bars are boring.  

 

The downside to a Republic with State Rights and greater freedoms.  I'll take those downsides every single  time.  You can go live in China.  I hear they only had 5,000 Covid deaths.  Sounds like your utopia.  

I love Chi-na! 

[SoCal Deek]

So where are Biden’s lockdowns then? Answer...the President doesn’t have that authority in our country. All Biden did was a post office mask mandate. Why? Because that’s FEDERAL land and that’s all he can control. 

[Big Blitz]

The only coup thats happened at the Capitol in the last 4 months:

 

 

 

 

 

If you watched this, and you experienced the following:

 

1. Anger at Jim Jordan

2. Joy watching Fauci

 

 

You're pretty much a lost cause traitor.  

 

We'll be showing this 7 minute exchange to our grandkids explaining "this is how the Republic died.  Everyone was good with letting the State determine every single course of action and decision in your life.  If you even had a decision.  They all said 'it's just a temporary inconvenience!"  

 

 

I appreciate Jordan's reminder that you can't even protest, assemble, or meet with these lunatics because of "the rules" without having to jump thru 8 hoops to do so.  

 

"Oh we'd meet with you but due to CDC recom...."  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But Trump had investments in HCQ!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Big Blitz

[GaryPinC]

4 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

 

What is a strict lockdown?

 

When you say there is no fudging of the numbers how can this be?  I just looked (and maybe I'm looking at the wrong numbers) but they show less than 5,000 deaths.  

 

I'm don't know how much, if at all, China fudged their numbers.  I believe they did with the Wuhan outbreak.  I just feel strongly that they did beat it as it would be impossible to hide at this point.

 

Strict lockdown?  Well,  studying China's methodology would be valuable.  I have no expertise, just some snippets I heard.  Isolating infected cities, villages, neighborhoods from travel in or out, aggressive contact tracing and isolation of contacts and Covid positives in large indoor public buildings (arenas, theaters, etc) with medical personnel for observation/medical care.  My in-laws weren't allowed to leave their condo and neighborhood area for nearly 1 1/2 months except one person to shop once a day.  If someone in your building tested positive, the entire building was restricted to their homes and mandatory Covid testing until all negative.  Strict penalties for precaution violations when out of house.  Mandated testing by the government if deemed necessary.

[Big Blitz]

Why are all these folks at the draft in masks if "fully vaccinated?"

 

Great message to send to folks on the fence on the vaccine.