The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, BillStime said:

Take a look in the mirror buddy - you run around this place dishing it but you can’t take it. 

 

 

Good morning to you too! That’s a start. 
 

And for the record...disagreeing with  your daily nonsense is not ‘dishing out’ anything. 

[oldmanfan]

47 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

A big difference between the Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID 2020 is governments did not lock down entire populations and close the economy in 1918.  The lock downs did more harm than the virus.  Unemployment, closed business, rampant depression and suicide, needless isolation of young adults and children combined with careless and ineffective policies to protect the most vulnerable.  And the general public still seems uneducated about the relative risks associated with COVID.  The mortality rate is about .03% with almost the entire risk of death in the over-60 age demographic where commodities or pre-existing conditions exist.  In my county the over-60 accounts for 20% of the cases and 95% of the deaths.  Yet its treated like the Black Death of the 1300's where a little over 50% of the world's human population died from the plague.   

 

I don't see any big economic boom coming out of this.  The lock downs destroyed an untold number of businesses and jobs and most are never coming back.  Money creation/capital formation has been totally disconnected from productive activity.  Handouts and "stimulus payments" increase demand and do nothing to create supply.  The administration talks of raising taxes but what's the difference?  About 80% of the Federal budget is funded by borrowing.  Why not make it 90%?  Yet, a bankrupt government is dreaming up some $3T "infrastructure spending bill" where I expect most of the money will end up in the pockets of political cronies and their associates via sweetheart contracts while the peasants get thrown a couple pennies.

Trade deficits continue to rise.  Simply put, we over consume but under produce and depend on foreign trading partners taking IOU's in exchange for the difference.  How much longer is this going to last?  Entire segments of the economy are dependent on low rates staying low forever.  I'm buying inflation hedges like energy and metals along with foreign stock funds to get a lot of my funds out of the way of what should be a tremendous drop in the purchasing power of the US dollar as inflation heats up and the Fed sits idle pretending inflation doesn't exist and knowing they can't raise rates without torpedoing the entire system. 

First, you are calculating mortality rates incorrectly.  You calculate mortality rates based on the number infected, not the general population.  The current mortality rate in the US is around 3.2%.  But let's just take your approach for a minute.  If you do it by the total population, then 550,000 Covid deaths out of a population of 330 million gives you a mortality rate of around 0.16%. sounds low right?  well, let's compare it to the leading cause of death in the US, cardiovascular disease, which kills around 650,000 per year in the US.  That gives you a 0.19%.  So by your logic, can I assume you want to close down all the cardiovascular floors in hospitals, cath labs, stop selling statins, tell the cardiologists to switch to dermatology?   

 

Or maybe because Covid and cardiovascular disease kill mainly the elderly, perhaps to reap the most economic benefit we should just kill off the old folks before they get sick.  Would save a ton in the long run.  What age do you want to select to start?

 

You mention suicide and depression, and I agree that this has been a tough, tough, year.  I took the liberty of looking at suicide rates (https://www.americashealthrankings.org/explore/annual/measure/Suicide/state/ALL) and it appears that suicide rates are not that much higher than previous non-Covid years.  What struck me is that the rates seems to be highest in the Rocky Mountain states, which are among the ones lower in Covid infection if I'm not mistaken.  Whether this is due to the economic impact of Covid or other factors seems hard to determine, but I would caution against randomly making claims that Covid is responsible for a big surge on suicide.  

 

You talk about needless isolation of young adults and children, and ignore the fact that one of the more unique aspects of the Covid virus is that it can be carried asymptomatically by young people.  You also ignore the potential long term morbidity that might be suffered by younger and older folks that will affect quality of life going forward for these individuals.  I do agree that as data was gathered it became clearer that young children of elementary school age do not transmit the virus readily, and I would be right there with you that I believe elementary schools should open, especially as teachers get vaccinated. 

 

No question businesses suffered.  I have a daughter that is a professional actor/singer, and that business along with restaurants and such has been decimated.  No question.  The issue was how to get them going again, and that could have - should have - been done by aggressively taking steps to control spread by leadership all banding together and insisting on proper mitigation strategies such as masks, instead of making it into a political football and yakking about your freedom as if wearing a mask is somehow an affront to everything holy.  Laboratory and epidemiologic studies all showed the benefit of masks wearing to help prevent - not eliminate, but prevent - spread, but instead you had way too many people act like idiots.  We could have this behind us by now, but no.  Dr. Birx the other day said if we had doen this we could have saved over 400,000 lives, but no.  When historians look back on this years from now, they will ask:  why in the face of a global pandemic did they treat this like a political rather than a medical issue?  

 

One last word on your comments on the economy, where I agree with much of what you said.  We are trillions of dollars in debt because the people of this country screwed up.  We demanded two things that are diametrically opposed:  low taxes and high government spending.  And because by and large we elect gutless cowards to Congress that are more interested in re-election that doing what's right, we have this problem.  We have a critical need for infrastructure, Biden knows it, he knows we need tax increase to pay for it, yet now people are complaining about that.  The real debate we need to have in this country is on what the exact role of the federal government should be, and once we decide on that (should there be a lot of government programs or not) then define the tax rate to pay for it.  But we're too gutless as a country and the politicians are too gutless to have that day of reckoning.  

22 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You do realize that figure is barely one quarter of the original projection right? Unlike you, I happen to think the American people did a pretty good job really. This battle is and will be won by people’s personal decisions and not by mandates from some far away governmental control center. 

And the projection you speak of is we had done nothing to prevent the spread, which would have been ridiculous.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

 

And the projection you speak of is we had done nothing to prevent the spread, which would have been ridiculous.

So we agree then! We did way more than nothing. And we were far from ‘ridiculous’. Thanks! 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

So we agree then! We did way more than nothing. And we were far from ‘ridiculous’. Thanks! 

We should have done a lot more, and had less people die.

[Big Blitz]

 

 

When they say this is not about politics, it's about politics.

 

NY (soon to be a dead state) has these mandates.  Cases are the highest in the country.  

 

Maybe they should wear 4 masks.  

 

Texas Florida and others without them are making these mandates look like the dumbest (it technically wasn't bc it was political) policy decision ever.  

Edited March 30, 2021 by Big Blitz

[BillStime]

14 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

NY (soon to be a dead state) has these mandates.  Cases are the highest in the country.  

 

Maybe they should wear 4 masks.  

 

Texas Florida and others without them are making these mandates look like the dumbest (it technically wasn't bc it was political) policy decision ever.  

 

Yeah, ok

 

[Chef Jim]

1 hour ago, BillStime said:

 

Yeah, ok

 

 

Thank you for proving masks and lockdowns don't move the needle much if at all.  

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

We should have done a lot more, and had less people die.

 

And it would have taken longer for immunity and the economy would suffer longer and people's psychological issues would be greater than they are now.  Let the virus virus.  in 1918 there was no vaccine but the virus essentially disappeared after a little over a year and a half.  Why do you think that is? 

[BillStime]

1 minute ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Thank you for proving masks and lockdowns don't move the needle much if at all.  

 

But they saved at least 1,400,000 lives based on Trump's forecast, right?

 

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Thank you for proving masks and lockdowns don't move the needle much if at all.  

 

And it would have taken longer for immunity and the economy would suffer longer and people's psychological issues would be greater than they are now.  Let the virus virus.  in 1918 there was no vaccine but the virus essentially disappeared after a little over a year and a half.  Why do you think that is? 

Because a ton of people had to die to get there.  You honestly believe we should go back a century and ignore all the advances made in science and medicine since.  That is frighteningly misguided.

[Chef Jim]

1 minute ago, BillStime said:

 

But they saved at least 1,400,000 lives based on Trump's forecast, right?

 

 

Who?  What does Trump have do to with my point?  Go ahead.  Challenge it. 

 

Good lord dude. You're a one trick pony if ever there was one.  

 

Can't argue you a point you cry BUT TRUMP!!!!  

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Because a ton of people had to die to get there.  You honestly believe we should go back a century and ignore all the advances made in science and medicine since.  That is frighteningly misguided.

 

I already said yes to this.  Death is death.  It's final. It sucks but when it's over it's over.  The pandemic of 1918 lasted about two years.  The economic and psychological effects of a lock down last MUCH longer.  And what advances?  They seem to have no clue as to what they are doing.  Look at how often things changed in the first several months of this.  They are still not in agreeance on how to combat this.  I say (again) virus gonna virus so let it.  We have a vaccine now that they didn't have in 1918 and we are almost exactly where the world was over a hundred years ago.  The arrogance of humans sometimes.  

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Steve Scalise: “Considering that Democrats want to require vaccine IDs for people to conduct their basic daily activities, they now have zero grounds to object to voter ID laws.”

 

 

 

 

 

[Chef Jim]

3 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Steve Scalise: “Considering that Democrats want to require vaccine IDs for people to conduct their basic daily activities, they now have zero grounds to object to voter ID laws.”

 

 

 

 

 

I’m going to start referring to this as the Darwin Flu. 

[BillStime]

20 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Who?  What does Trump have do to with my point?  Go ahead.  Challenge it. 

 

Good lord dude. You're a one trick pony if ever there was one.  

 

Can't argue you a point you cry BUT TRUMP!!!!  

 

 

 

And you wonder why I don't care to respond to you? You turn into a little B anytime you don't hear what YOU WANT TO HEAR.

 

Trump Hits Back At Fauci, Lockdowns, Claims He ‘Saved’ 2 Million Lives

 

This "fact" has been mentioned here several times amongst your likeminded friends.

 

 

[dpberr]

3 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Steve Scalise: “Considering that Democrats want to require vaccine IDs for people to conduct their basic daily activities, they now have zero grounds to object to voter ID laws.”

 

 

 

 

 

That's why the government's response to COVID has been complete bull#### from the very beginning.   

 

.Gov loves their lockdowns, masks and vaccines, but you never get their same harpy treatment on how obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure have played such a significant role in a person's COVID experience.  You don't see the government banning fast food, society shaming the obese like some do over the vaccine or anyone advocating healthier meal plans at home and preaching about getting a half hour of real activity a day.  Hell, the government found fast food "essential" and closed down parks and playgrounds last year.  I remember cities removing basketball hoops.  How dare those children exercise!  

 

If you want to talk pandemics, obesity and its comorbidity is "the" national pandemic.  Kids are fat.  Millennials in the prime of their lives, fat.  Middle age when the health problems multiply even when you're healthy...fat.    Elderly...fat.  You see the fat arms and legs.  You see the huge beer guts.  You see the bloat.   People out there who haven't had their cholesterol or Vitamin D (nearly all overweight people are deficient in VIT D) checked in a decade. 

 

You add vaping, drinking, a sedentary lifestyle and for some, recreational drugs, and you have a lot of primed unhealthy bodies for any virus to take root in. 

[SoCal Deek]

6 minutes ago, dpberr said:

That's why the government's response to COVID has been complete bull#### from the very beginning.   

 

.Gov loves their lockdowns, masks and vaccines, but you never get their same harpy treatment on how obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure have played such a significant role in a person's COVID experience.  You don't see the government banning fast food, society shaming the obese like some do over the vaccine or anyone advocating healthier meal plans at home and preaching about getting a half hour of real activity a day.  Hell, the government found fast food "essential" and closed down parks and playgrounds last year.  I remember cities removing basketball hoops.  How dare those children exercise!  

 

If you want to talk pandemics, obesity and its comorbidity is "the" national pandemic.  Kids are fat.  Millennials in the prime of their lives, fat.  Middle age when the health problems multiply even when you're healthy...fat.    Elderly...fat.  You see the fat arms and legs.  You see the huge beer guts.  You see the bloat.   People out there who haven't had their cholesterol or Vitamin D (nearly all overweight people are deficient in VIT D) checked in a decade. 

 

You add vaping, drinking, a sedentary lifestyle and for some, recreational drugs, and you have a lot of primed unhealthy bodies for any virus to take root in. 

We've all been dancing around this for a year. Once we had a better idea of what was happening, we should have targeted the elderly, the obese, and the otherwise compromised with our Covid strategy. I'm convinced we'd have seen far better results, and a far better national attitude if we'd all just focused our response on those isolated groups.  Instead, like with everything government touches, they killed a mosquito with a sledgehammer....and now we 'have to' spend $1.9 TRILLION to fix the hole in the drywall.  Classic! 

[Chef Jim]

29 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

And you wonder why I don't care to respond to you? You turn into a little B anytime you don't hear what YOU WANT TO HEAR.

 

Trump Hits Back At Fauci, Lockdowns, Claims He ‘Saved’ 2 Million Lives

 

This "fact" has been mentioned here several times amongst your likeminded friends.

 

 

 

Stop!!  Just ***** STOP!!!  This has nothing to do with what Trump said what Trump did and EVERYTHING to do with my point that based on the graph YOU shared pretty much proves that mandates vs no mandates doesn't move the needle.  I try to engage with a debate with you and I turn into a little B word?  Ummm no.  I try to debate with something that has absolutely nothing to do with Trump.  NOTHING!!  And you bring him into the conversation.  Soooooo address my point.  

[BillStime]

2 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Stop!!  Just ***** STOP!!!  This has nothing to do with what Trump said what Trump did and EVERYTHING to do with my point that based on the graph YOU shared pretty much proves that mandates vs no mandates doesn't move the needle.  I try to engage with a debate with you and I turn into a little B word?  Ummm no.  I try to debate with something that has absolutely nothing to do with Trump.  NOTHING!!  And you bring him into the conversation.  Soooooo address my point.  

 

LOL - yea, you sound like a guy that owns a glock... listen to you.

[716er]

13 minutes ago, dpberr said:

You don't see the government banning fast food, society shaming the obese like some do over the vaccine or anyone advocating healthier meal plans at home and preaching about getting a half hour of real activity a day.  Hell, the government found fast food "essential" and closed down parks and playgrounds last year.  I remember cities removing basketball hoops.  How dare those children exercise!  

 

If you want to talk pandemics, obesity and its comorbidity is "the" national pandemic.  Kids are fat.  Millennials in the prime of their lives, fat.  Middle age when the health problems multiply even when you're healthy...fat.    Elderly...fat.  You see the fat arms and legs.  You see the huge beer guts.  You see the bloat.   People out there who haven't had their cholesterol or Vitamin D (nearly all overweight people are deficient in VIT D) checked in a decade. 

 

I recall a previous first lady who championed this as her cause and was mocked by her husband's political opponents mercilessly for it.

 

The 16 oz. soda rule didn't go over too well with that crowd, either. 

 

What do you think should be done?

[Chef Jim]

2 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

LOL - yea, you sound like a guy that owns a glock... listen to you.

 

So you don't want to respond directly to my point of what your graph in my mind proved?  What's with the tangents?  

 

[SoCal Deek]

14 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Stop!!  Just ***** STOP!!!  This has nothing to do with what Trump said what Trump did and EVERYTHING to do with my point that based on the graph YOU shared pretty much proves that mandates vs no mandates doesn't move the needle.  I try to engage with a debate with you and I turn into a little B word?  Ummm no.  I try to debate with something that has absolutely nothing to do with Trump.  NOTHING!!  And you bring him into the conversation.  Soooooo address my point.  

I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, but got little response.  If you look at the mountain of data that's piled up across the country over an entire year, you'll find our Covid response has been like flipping a coin. If you flip it enough times, you're likley to come up with an equal number of heads and tails. This is what we've seen State by State. The deaths per million are almost identical across this vast nation. The statistical variance is minimal. The only real outliers are Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Vermont, and Maine.  What does this tell us?  It tells us that the far extremities of the country have done the best.  It appears to have more to do with geography than policy, but I guess that makes sense. If you can limit travel from outside, infected population centers then you'll see less spread of a contagious virus.

Edited March 30, 2021 by SoCal Deek