The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[GaryPinC]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks for the thoughtful response. My posts are trying desperately to stay out of the politics of it all. I’m a numbers driven guy. Something’s going on in the NYC Metro area ...again. What’s shocking to me is that people who are paid to tell us what it is, either don’t seem to have a clue, or don’t want to tell us. With a database this large and with reporting in virtual real time it’s hard to believe they don’t know. 

I hear ya, the problem is this (the science) has always been and continues to be a complex situation developing in real time.  There's more grey than black and white at play here.  We've learned much but there's still a lot of unknowns that simply need time and further study to figure out.  Will certain areas see another rise and will vaccination/natural immunity be able to squash it or prevent others?   Best data we have may be Israel, otherwise it's a guess.

 

We're only a little over a year out on trying to get a handle on this novel, unusual virus.  That's nothing, barely a blink of the eye in science terms.  But honestly, the science that has gone into the Western vaccines and turning that around in a year is truly breathtaking to someone like myself.  Really super job.  The Russians did very well also, just not sure you can rely on their mass production quality.

 

The problem with the people that "know" is that they have to take in to account the risks of what they don't know, which is substantial in this case.  They also tend not to discuss things they know but there's not enough formally analyzed data yet.

 

For example, I can tell you in my discussions with the Ohio department of health last fall, they're much more willing to discuss and give guidance based on trends they're seeing well before the CDC changes its formal guidance.

 

  My leading guess would be one or more of the variants is contributing to NYC as it has such a global footprint.  But it's probably a number of factors and just because you can chart the rise, you might not be able to fully explain it for another year.

 

WRT the variants, no one can say for sure, but based on my research I would guess if South Africa or Brazil become dominant here, cases would rise but the hospitalizations would be muted to some degree.  I do believe the vaccines will be effective in preventing the most serious cases (ICU) but beyond that  ???

[Chef Jim]

5 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

The only reason we're still in masks is because if they say you can take them off and cases do nothing different then people will say "we could have had these off the whole time???"  And it will instantly the biggest ***k up of all time.  Especially if cases drop.

 

If masks control it, then if cases go up in your area, put the mask on, right? 

 

Also, businesses need people to not be scared to shop.  This face diaper does that.  Provides the scared a sense of security for you to shop at Kohls.  

 

 

This is all bull ***t. 

 

We don't have to wait to see what happens with or without mask mandates.  See FL vs CA 

[Big Blitz]

We are now at a CFR of 1.8%

 

An IFR of 0.18 to 0.55

 

Remember when those were a thing?

 

 

Have we met the metrics yet?  

[SoCal Deek]

4 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

I hear ya, the problem is this (the science) has always been and continues to be a complex situation developing in real time.  There's more grey than black and white at play here.  We've learned much but there's still a lot of unknowns that simply need time and further study to figure out.  Will certain areas see another rise and will vaccination/natural immunity be able to squash it or prevent others?   Best data we have may be Israel, otherwise it's a guess.

 

We're only a little over a year out on trying to get a handle on this novel, unusual virus.  That's nothing, barely a blink of the eye in science terms.  But honestly, the science that has gone into the Western vaccines and turning that around in a year is truly breathtaking to someone like myself.  Really super job.  The Russians did very well also, just not sure you can rely on their mass production quality.

 

The problem with the people that "know" is that they have to take in to account the risks of what they don't know, which is substantial in this case.  They also tend not to discuss things they know but there's not enough formally analyzed data yet.

 

For example, I can tell you in my discussions with the Ohio department of health last fall, they're much more willing to discuss and give guidance based on trends they're seeing well before the CDC changes its formal guidance.

 

  My leading guess would be one or more of the variants is contributing to NYC as it has such a global footprint.  But it's probably a number of factors and just because you can chart the rise, you might not be able to fully explain it for another year.

 

WRT the variants, no one can say for sure, but based on my research I would guess if South Africa or Brazil become dominant here, cases would rise but the hospitalizations would be muted to some degree.  I do believe the vaccines will be effective in preventing the most serious cases (ICU) but beyond that  ???

Once again, thanks for the well thought out response. But if the variants are the reason for a spike in NYC shouldn’t we know that? Don’t are tests pick that up? I’m still of the mindset that our federal agencies really got caught flat footed here. Heaven forbid we ever see something like this again. It’s been a hot mess of messaging. My only hope is Dr Fauci is long retired by the time this happens again. 

[GaryPinC]

15 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Once again, thanks for the well thought out response. But if the variants are the reason for a spike in NYC shouldn’t we know that? Don’t are tests pick that up? I’m still of the mindset that our federal agencies really got caught flat footed here. Heaven forbid we ever see something like this again. It’s been a hot mess of messaging. My only hope is Dr Fauci is long retired by the time this happens again. 

Thanks for your good thoughts also and I definitely appreciate keeping it apolitical.  Definitely our federal agencies got caught flat-footed but we haven't had a true pandemic since arguably 1918.  We had no meaningful capacity to contact trace, no way it was going to happen effectively in the 3-6 week window we had to control this thing last year.  Plus, Americans are very wary to sacrifice personal freedoms even temporarily, so asking them to do it proactively was virtually a non-starter.  It's part of what makes us great, but not this time.  So I would in all fairness say, other than the Chinese and some smaller countries, the entire world got caught flat-footed.

   As far as variants, I don't have a good idea how fast they can turn around the science on them.

 You can do a genomic sequence on a virus in less then a day, but there's the analysis as viruses are constantly undergoing changes.

I'm also unsure if diagnostic clinical labs do this type of study, I think there has to be priority, protocols, and funding for formal studies which require designs, applications to federal agencies, IRBs, analysis, peer review just to name a few.

 

Just anecdotally, I remember them discussing suspicions that there was a more mild strain and a more virulent strain (that hit Europe) when things got rolling last year.  This fall was the first the they actually put some science behind it with actual variants.

 

The biggest issue is can we do better next time?

[B-Man]

Nation’s first ‘vaccine passport’ coming to New York

by Gabrielle Fonrouge

 

https://nypost.com/2021/03/26/nations-first-covid-vaccine-passport-coming-to-new-york/

 

The nation’s very first “vaccine passport” is coming to the Big Apple. The program, dubbed the “Excelsior Pass,” is an app that will allow New Yorkers to prove their vaccination status, or recent history of a negative COVID-19 test, in order to gain entry to events and businesses, Governor Cuomo announced in a news release Friday. “Similar to a mobile airline boarding pass, individuals will be able to either print out their pass or store it on their smartphones using the Excelsior Pass Wallet app,” the news release explains. “Each Pass will have a secure QR code, which participating businesses and venues

 

 

 

 

Land of the free, home of the brave. Remember that one? Quaint.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Blitz]

Even with vaccinations on the rise, epidemiologists urge caution as nation reopens

 

Even with millions of vaccine shots pricking arms every day, epidemiologists are warning that it's too soon for states to ease up on public COVID-19 measures without risking another surge.

 

Although more than 47 million people in the United States have been fully vaccinated -- 32 states, plus Washington, D.C., now are offering vaccines to anyone 16 or older -- experts agree we're nowhere near herd immunity.

 

But several states -- Iowa, Mississippi, Texas and Wyoming among them -- have fully reopened, repealing all COVID-19-related mandates. Other states are continuing to loosen their own restrictions.

 

Nationwide "the number of cases in the country has plateaued. That's not good. They should keep going down and down," Dr. Anthony Fauci said on "Good Morning America" on Tuesday. "We've seen this before: When you plateau like that, there really is a danger of a resurgence."

 

Meanwhile, there are worrying signs the pandemic may be accelerating in some parts of the country, with 20 states now reporting more than a 10% increase in the number of new cases. Epidemiologists interviewed by ABC News said there are myriad reasons it's too soon to ease mandates, including the new and more contagious COVID-19 variants, undetected cases and worries about long COVID.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/vaccinations-rise-epidemiologists-urge-caution-nation-reopens/story?id=76612249

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Big Blitz

[RiotAct]

show me your Excelsior Pass... but be sure to continue wearing a mask and social distancing!!!

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

show me your Excelsior Pass... but be sure to continue wearing a mask and social distancing!!!

 

 

Like I said.....

 

You'll be doing that for years. 

 

If they stop and cases do nothing or even drop......it's the biggest "policy" disaster in history.  Among several we've already had in the last 13 months and counting.  

 

If masks "control" the spread, then make them optional.  We can put them on and slow cases (LOL) at any time.  Especially since 25% of us have shots, and probably half of us (probably 80%) have had the virus.  Thus immunity.

 

 

Sham.  It's all a sham.  You let government bureaucrats run this that means they are far more terrified of their careers then your health.  And right now, mandated distancing and masks if shown (they already have) to be near useless there goes credibility and there goes your career.  

 

Taken further, that's why half the public wants case spikes in mandate free states.  "They have to be wrong!  Or I believed a lie for 13 months.....and counting."   

 

 

So, what's everyone's plans July 4th.....2022?

[Tiberius]

How many died needlessly because of Trump’s murderous incompetence? 

Quote

 

Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator under President Donald Trump, said most coronavirus deaths in the United States could have been prevented if the Trump administration had acted earlier and more decisively.

Birx made her comments in the CNN documentary “Covid War: The Pandemic Doctors Speak Out,” a clip from which the network released Saturday. The full documentary will air 9 p.m. Sunday.

In it, CNN chief medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta asked Birx how much of a difference she thinks it would have made had the United States “mitigated earlier, … paused earlier and actually done it,” referring to extending shutdowns, urging people to wear masks and implementing other steps to slow the spread of the virus.

“I look at it this way: The first time, we have an excuse. There were about 100,000 deaths that came from that original surge,” Birx told Gupta. “All of the rest of them, in my mind, could have been mitigated or decreased substantially.”

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/27/birx-tells-cnn-most-us-covid-deaths-could-have-been-mitigated-after-first-100000/

[Chef Jim]

31 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

How many died needlessly because of Trump’s murderous incompetence? 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/27/birx-tells-cnn-most-us-covid-deaths-could-have-been-mitigated-after-first-100000/

Muderous?   Are you sure you want to use that word.  You wonder why so many of us don’t take you seriously. 🙄

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

How many died needlessly because of Trump’s murderous incompetence? 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/27/birx-tells-cnn-most-us-covid-deaths-could-have-been-mitigated-after-first-100000/

 

This is all code for "stronger federal response."

 

Something that is unconstitutional.

 

 

More bureaucrats like her will be attempting to rewrite history to save their careers.  

 

How many questions did CNN ask her about Cuomos refusal to "quarantine" and shut down?  How much of a discussion was there to seal off NYC? 

 

 

And here are the 2 money questions that weren't asked thus why we know this is all complete bull ***t:

 

 

 

1. What land locked country did it all right and locked down "early enough?"  France?  Germany?  Spain?  South Africa?  Which of those countries or others not surrounded by oceans will we look back on and say they did it right?  And why was it Sweden?

 

 

 

2. Since it's not the Feds job to do any of this, which state in the U.S. handled it all the best and why was it Florida?

 

 

 

Have a good rest of your masked up socially distanced day.   

[Tiberius]

42 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

This is all code for "stronger federal response."

 

Something that is unconstitutional.

 

 

More bureaucrats like her will be attempting to rewrite history to save their careers.  

 

How many questions did CNN ask her about Cuomos refusal to "quarantine" and shut down?  How much of a discussion was there to seal off NYC? 

 

 

And here are the 2 money questions that weren't asked thus why we know this is all complete bull ***t:

 

 

 

1. What land locked country did it all right and locked down "early enough?"  France?  Germany?  Spain?  South Africa?  Which of those countries or others not surrounded by oceans will we look back on and say they did it right?  And why was it Sweden?

 

 

 

2. Since it's not the Feds job to do any of this, which state in the U.S. handled it all the best and why was it Florida?

 

 

 

Have a good rest of your masked up socially distanced day.   

400,000 deaths on Trump's head! Hitler didn't even kill that many Americans! 

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

Muderous?   Are you sure you want to use that word.  You wonder why so many of us don’t take you seriously. 🙄

"Muderous"....sorry Chef, I just had to do it. 😂  His father was a mudder.  His mudder was a mudder. (Seinfeld reference.)

[TH3]

21 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Like I said.....

 

You'll be doing that for years. 

 

If they stop and cases do nothing or even drop......it's the biggest "policy" disaster in history.  Among several we've already had in the last 13 months and counting.  

 

If masks "control" the spread, then make them optional.  We can put them on and slow cases (LOL) at any time.  Especially since 25% of us have shots, and probably half of us (probably 80%) have had the virus.  Thus immunity.

 

 

Sham.  It's all a sham.  You let government bureaucrats run this that means they are far more terrified of their careers then your health.  And right now, mandated distancing and masks if shown (they already have) to be near useless there goes credibility and there goes your career.  

 

Taken further, that's why half the public wants case spikes in mandate free states.  "They have to be wrong!  Or I believed a lie for 13 months.....and counting."   

 

 

So, what's everyone's plans July 4th.....2022?

None of what you say here is true. None of it.

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

400,000 deaths on Trump's head! Hitler didn't even kill that many Americans! 

 

 

Cool story bro.

 

Over 25K Canadians have supposedly died from Covid.

 

Thats more then 1/3 of the number of Canadians killed in every war they ever fought in.  

 

 

Trudeau is essentially the second biggest mass murderer in Canadian history.  

 

Am I doing this right?  Is this how the Chinese want to me to think?  

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, TH3 said:

None of what you say here is true. None of it.

 

 

K.

 

Thank you for clearing that up for me.  

Edited March 28, 2021 by Big Blitz

[Tiberius]

7 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Cool story bro.

 

Over 25K Canadians have supposedly died from Covid.

 

Thats more then 1/3 of the number of Canadians killed in every war they ever fought in.  

 

 

Trudeau is essentially the second biggest mass murderer in Canadian history.  

 

Am I doing this right?  Is this how the Chinese want to me to think?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

K.

 

Thank you for clearing that up for me.  

I guess the worse of a person he is the more you guys live him. 

 

But 400k deaths because of his deadly incompetence is pretty bad. 

 

You dont even think the super spreader events he held were bad at all' right? 

 

You guys just are so far far up His butt you won’t admit to anything, if he lies about it. 

 

400,000 Deaths 

36 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

"Muderous"....sorry Chef, I just had to do it. 😂  His father was a mudder.  His mudder was a mudder. (Seinfeld reference.)

Talking to yourself? Lol 

[Tiberius]

 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

 

Talking to yourself? Lol 

You’re definitely one of the strangest people I’ve ever conversed with (if you can even call it a conversation) . But... it’s when you make comments like this, that you reveal you literally know nothing about anything. 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

Future generations will mock our fear, mock our cowardice, mock our willingness to surrender our liberties int he face of a danger wherein over 99% of the afflicted recover. 

 

They will judge us harshly for cowering at the feet of "experts". 

 

And they'll be absolutely correct in doing so.