The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Big Blitz]

You are never ever ever going to convince me how utterly ridiculous it is that an outdoor sport requires you to be in masks on the sideline that you are touching and grabbing all game then touching and grabbing other things (remember we were told to wipe down everything I guess not anymore) isn't 1000000000000000x worse then not wearing a mask.

 

Every time Pete Carroll is on camera he is grabbing the front of the mask to yell at someone.  

 

 

This is so incredibly f...ing stupid.  

 

[SoTier]

16 hours ago, Beast said:

 

I do and they aren’t. Not in my area.

 

The hospitals in Chautauqua County also aren't overwhelmed, but if you travel 30 miles north to Erie County, all elective surgeries are banned because of the rising hospitalizations there, and the reality is that our three small community hospitals could be easily be overwhelmed if hospitalizations in their immediate areas rose by 20-50 in a week or so.

[TBBills]

On 11/28/2020 at 6:47 PM, HappyDays said:

Here's another chart that shows the same trend:

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..2020-10-18&country=~USA&region=World

 

So every week since the pandemic began, the USA has seen anywhere from 5% to 45% more deaths in a given week than would be expected in a normal year. Unfortunately I expect the downward trend on this chart to be reversed when it's updated over the next couple months.

Trump's legacy... How many people he allowed to die for his negligence.

[Big Blitz]

57 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Trump's legacy... How many people he allowed to die for his negligence.

 

 

Over 400K dead in Europe now.  Will the NY Times list all the names on the front page of the paper--the people that actually died from the virus this time and not motorcycle accidents.  

 

What's their leader's legacies besides demonstrating that state run health care is a disaster----and make no mistake, that's a massive problem in Italy that contributed to not just the debacle in March with the hospitals, but also the reason for them going into near 5 month lockdowns that failed and killed thousands more than the virus.  

 

 

Carry on with your Dark Winter.

[TBBills]

17 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

.

No one give a ***** about your propaganda bull####.

 

Laugh at your wrong information.

Edited December 1, 2020 by TBBills

[shoshin]

14 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Every time Pete Carroll is on camera he is grabbing the front of the mask to yell at someone.  

 

This is so incredibly f...ing stupid.  

 

You might be taking things....a bit too seriously. 

[Big Blitz]

The COVID Case Con Continues

 

....COVID fear was used as an election campaign issue, blaming everything on Trump. It served as an excuse for mail-in ballots and last-minute changes to electoral laws favoring Sleepy Joe Biden. Shutdowns, masks, and distancing are a way of wannabe dictator governors to flex their power, lest the hoi polloi become restless and protest electoral fraud.

 

It’s almost as if this was all planned out, part of a grand scheme for the administrative state to subversively take over the government, rather than through free elections seeking the consent of the governed....

 

 

The Washington Post claims that Wuhan coronavirus cases are “skyrocketing” while the New York Times wails that “It has hit us with a vengeance.” Yet the media is oblivious, either ignorantly or deliberately, to the reality that positive tests are not the same thing as cases.

 

A “case” has a very specific definition, apparently beyond the intellectual realm of Wolf Blitzer or Neil Cavuto. The CDC provides a specific “case definition.”  A case is not just a positive test.  Instead, what is needed is "presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence."  Notice the AND, meaning not simply a positive test.

 

Saying someone with a positive COVID test is a “case” is fraudulent. For comparison, blood glucose has an upper test limit of 140. Is everyone above that number a diabetic? Even if they just ate a doughnut or ice cream cone before testing? Or does it take more than a single blood glucose level before one is diagnosed with diabetes? Does a single elevated blood pressure test make one hypertensive? Certainly not.

 

COVID is tested using PCR which amplifies any viral fragments found in the nose repeatedly until the test is positive. This is called the amplification cycle and the higher that number the more likely a positive test will be returned, even if it is clinically insignificant.

 

From that bastion of right-wing conspiracy, the New York Times,

The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.

Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time.

The amplification cycle is the problem.

The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.

With too high an amplification cycle, the PCR test is hyper-sensitive. Most commercial tests set this threshold at 40, whereas it would be more clinical meaningful if much lower, say at 30. Otherwise as the NY Times notes,

Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left.

Death counts are back in vogue, each and every one blamed on President Trump, even the deaths cause by NY Governor Cuomo sending infected patients into nursing homes. We are told that COVID is killing hundreds of thousands.

 

Johns Hopkins University recently published a study which found,

In contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.

In other words, the same number of people died this year compared to last year, with the only variable this year being the Wuhan virus.

 

It seems deaths due to heart and respiratory disease, influenza, and pneumonia are down this year, the difference made up in deaths attributed to COVID, but the total number of deaths unchanged from last year to this year.

 

Garbage in, garbage out. With an overly sensitive test, almost 90 percent of the so-called surge is fake news, fear porn to justify unnecessary lockdowns and business closures.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/the_covid_case_con_continues.html#ixzz6fOkIPRzR

 

 

Carry on with your Dark Winter.  

Edited December 1, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Tiberius]

23 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

The COVID Case Con Continues

 

....COVID fear was used as an election campaign issue, blaming everything on Trump. It served as an excuse for mail-in ballots and last-minute changes to electoral laws favoring Sleepy Joe Biden. Shutdowns, masks, and distancing are a way of wannabe dictator governors to flex their power, lest the hoi polloi become restless and protest electoral fraud.

 

 

Wannabe dictators? Remember, the Democrats favor more voting. The Democrats favor democracy. Your boy faced a crisis and failed. Total failure 

[oldmanfan]

25 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

The COVID Case Con Continues

 

....COVID fear was used as an election campaign issue, blaming everything on Trump. It served as an excuse for mail-in ballots and last-minute changes to electoral laws favoring Sleepy Joe Biden. Shutdowns, masks, and distancing are a way of wannabe dictator governors to flex their power, lest the hoi polloi become restless and protest electoral fraud.

 

It’s almost as if this was all planned out, part of a grand scheme for the administrative state to subversively take over the government, rather than through free elections seeking the consent of the governed....

 

 

The Washington Post claims that Wuhan coronavirus cases are “skyrocketing” while the New York Times wails that “It has hit us with a vengeance.” Yet the media is oblivious, either ignorantly or deliberately, to the reality that positive tests are not the same thing as cases.

 

A “case” has a very specific definition, apparently beyond the intellectual realm of Wolf Blitzer or Neil Cavuto. The CDC provides a specific “case definition.”  A case is not just a positive test.  Instead, what is needed is "presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence."  Notice the AND, meaning not simply a positive test.

 

Saying someone with a positive COVID test is a “case” is fraudulent. For comparison, blood glucose has an upper test limit of 140. Is everyone above that number a diabetic? Even if they just ate a doughnut or ice cream cone before testing? Or does it take more than a single blood glucose level before one is diagnosed with diabetes? Does a single elevated blood pressure test make one hypertensive? Certainly not.

 

COVID is tested using PCR which amplifies any viral fragments found in the nose repeatedly until the test is positive. This is called the amplification cycle and the higher that number the more likely a positive test will be returned, even if it is clinically insignificant.

 

From that bastion of right-wing conspiracy, the New York Times,

The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.

Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time.

The amplification cycle is the problem.

The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.

With too high an amplification cycle, the PCR test is hyper-sensitive. Most commercial tests set this threshold at 40, whereas it would be more clinical meaningful if much lower, say at 30. Otherwise as the NY Times notes,

Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left.

Death counts are back in vogue, each and every one blamed on President Trump, even the deaths cause by NY Governor Cuomo sending infected patients into nursing homes. We are told that COVID is killing hundreds of thousands.

 

Johns Hopkins University recently published a study which found,

In contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.

In other words, the same number of people died this year compared to last year, with the only variable this year being the Wuhan virus.

 

It seems deaths due to heart and respiratory disease, influenza, and pneumonia are down this year, the difference made up in deaths attributed to COVID, but the total number of deaths unchanged from last year to this year.

 

Garbage in, garbage out. With an overly sensitive test, almost 90 percent of the so-called surge is fake news, fear porn to justify unnecessary lockdowns and business closures.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/the_covid_case_con_continues.html#ixzz6fOkIPRzR

 

 

Carry on with your Dark Winter.  

The most recent CDC data below shows that Covid-like illness and hospitalizations are on the rise.  Most state heath departments show the same.  And interviews with many physicians and nurses indicate that hospitals are becoming overcrowded and overwhelmed with Covid patients - they don't treat asymptomatic people.  Deaths are down due to the heroic efforts of the front line medical people and the research that has gone in to more effective treatment options.  Like it or not, and you clearly don't, this is a real pandemic with a virus that wreaks havoc on the population of the world and is killing people and causing long term damage to survivors.  And your boy knew about it early on as shown by the Woodward interviews and he did squat.

 

 

This is a real disease

[shoshin]

37 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

The COVID Case Con Continues

 

....COVID fear was used as an election campaign issue, blaming everything on Trump. It served as an excuse for mail-in ballots and last-minute changes to electoral laws favoring Sleepy Joe Biden. Shutdowns, masks, and distancing are a way of wannabe dictator governors to flex their power, lest the hoi polloi become restless and protest electoral fraud.

 

It’s almost as if this was all planned out, part of a grand scheme for the administrative state to subversively take over the government, rather than through free elections seeking the consent of the governed....

 

Carry on with your Dark Winter.  

 

I'm not afraid of cases but we all should be paying attention to rising hospitalizations and deaths. 

 

Cases precede those, as they have in this case. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The most recent CDC data below shows that Covid-like illness and hospitalizations are on the rise.  Most state heath departments show the same.  And interviews with many physicians and nurses indicate that hospitals are becoming overcrowded and overwhelmed with Covid patients - they don't treat asymptomatic people.  Deaths are down due to the heroic efforts of the front line medical people and the research that has gone in to more effective treatment options.  Like it or not, and you clearly don't, this is a real pandemic with a virus that wreaks havoc on the population of the world and is killing people and causing long term damage to survivors.  And your boy knew about it early on as shown by the Woodward interviews and he did squat.

 

 

This is a real disease

I’m not here to argue with you, but you indicated “COVID-like”, not COVID.  
 

Is that an important distinction to you?  A quick search seems to indicate that “COVID-like” can include everything from a cough, shortness of breath to sore throat and beyond.  
 

 

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I’m not here to argue with you, but you indicated “COVID-like”, not COVID.  
 

Is that an important distinction to you?  A quick search seems to indicate that “COVID-like” can include everything from a cough, shortness of breath to sore throat and beyond.  
 

 

 

Not that you asked me but the problem right now is that the friggin' hospitalized number will not stop rising. It's hard to manage the response when the line never levels. There's the faintest hint of a slope change in the last week but it's not nearly what anyone hopes for. 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I’m not here to argue with you, but you indicated “COVID-like”, not COVID.  
 

Is that an important distinction to you?  A quick search seems to indicate that “COVID-like” can include everything from a cough, shortness of breath to sore throat and beyond.  
 

 

They also have influenza-like illness (ILI) on the graph, and the Covid symptoms are pretty well accepted now so it does not overly concern me.  The most common ones are fever, non-productive (dry) cough, and breathing issues but also rarer things as loss of taste/smell, sore throat, etc.  It's possible some symptoms are over thought as Covid, it is also possible you have folks out there with what they think are a cold or allergies that have the virus.  The combination of a positive test along with Covid-like symptoms are the best way to judge, so that's the advantage of increasing testing as much as possible, to find those with symptoms that actually have the virus.   I'm a good example of that; I have seasonal allergies and I get this seasonal bronchitis every year that I have to take steroids for.  I started to feel those symptoms, and went in immediately for Covid testing, which was negative. 

 

Looking at the data it favors a higher infection risk, and the data on increased hospitalizations is very concerning.  I have a lot of friends working on the front lines who are really worried about being overwhelmed again.  

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

15 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

They also have influenza-like illness (ILI) on the graph, and the Covid symptoms are pretty well accepted now so it does not overly concern me.  The most common ones are fever, non-productive (dry) cough, and breathing issues but also rarer things as loss of taste/smell, sore throat, etc.  It's possible some symptoms are over thought as Covid, it is also possible you have folks out there with what they think are a cold or allergies that have the virus.  The combination of a positive test along with Covid-like symptoms are the best way to judge, so that's the advantage of increasing testing as much as possible, to find those with symptoms that actually have the virus.   I'm a good example of that; I have seasonal allergies and I get this seasonal bronchitis every year that I have to take steroids for.  I started to feel those symptoms, and went in immediately for Covid testing, which was negative. 

 

Looking at the data it favors a higher infection risk, and the data on increased hospitalizations is very concerning.  I have a lot of friends working on the front lines who are really worried about being overwhelmed again.  

I appreciate the feedback.  I’m in the skeptic crowd, much of that driven by the utter lack of political/health leadership when folks were protesting in the streets all summer.  I’m not a scientist, I consider agendas in conjunction with the data, but it is very difficult for me to take “leaders” seriously when their is a disconnect between words and action.  
 

Still, I wear my mask, respect others and socially distance.  

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

The most recent CDC data below shows that Covid-like illness and hospitalizations are on the rise.  Most state heath departments show the same.  And interviews with many physicians and nurses indicate that hospitals are becoming overcrowded and overwhelmed with Covid patients - they don't treat asymptomatic people.  Deaths are down due to the heroic efforts of the front line medical people and the research that has gone in to more effective treatment options.  Like it or not, and you clearly don't, this is a real pandemic with a virus that wreaks havoc on the population of the world and is killing people and causing long term damage to survivors.  And your boy knew about it early on as shown by the Woodward interviews and he did squat.

 

 

This is a real disease

 

 

What did Europe do that was better than us?  

 

Virus behaving and impacting exact same way over there.

 

Maybe.  Why is that ILI number so low??

 

No one called it a fake disease.

 

The hysteria that is contributing to every single government response at every level - that's the failure.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Big Blitz

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I appreciate the feedback.  I’m in the skeptic crowd, much of that driven by the utter lack of political/health leadership when folks were protesting in the streets all summer.  I’m not a scientist, I consider agendas in conjunction with the data, but it is very difficult for me to take “leaders” seriously when their is a disconnect between words and action.  
 

Still, I wear my mask, respect others and socially distance.  

I am a scientists and what bothers me is the seeming refusal of some in our society to refuse to accept data and factual evidence.  I understand skepticism; I am skeptical myself of certain things government does.  I would tell you those that work in the CDC and NIH should be trusted; there are a lot of very smart folks there that have dedicated their lives to public health.

 

Thanks for wearing the masks and doing your part.

Just now, Big Blitz said:

 

 

What did Europe do that was better than us?  

 

Virus behaving and impacting exact same way over there.

 

No one called it a fake disease.  

 

The hysteria that is contributing to every single government response at every level and that's the failure.

What about Europe?  What data are you referring to?  Who si the no one who called it a fake disease?  Clarify what you're trying to get to and I'd be happy to respond.  I will say that it is not hysteria to try and control a pandemic.

[Tiberius]

5 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

What did Europe do that was better than us?  

 

Virus behaving and impacting exact same way over there.

 

Maybe.  Why is that ILI number so low??

 

No one called it a fake disease.

 

The hysteria that is contributing to every single government response at every level - that's the failure.

It will all be gone by April 

[Big Blitz]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

 

What about Europe?  What data are you referring to?  Who si the no one who called it a fake disease?  Clarify what you're trying to get to and I'd be happy to respond.  I will say that it is not hysteria to try and control a pandemic.

 

Just to the low info people that think the virus is Trump's fault as every major country on earth deals with exact same proportional numbers except Sweden, which did everything right except completely lock down ALF's in March.

 

 

I still want to know why those IFI numbers are so low on that graph.  Everything called Covid-like now.  

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

It will all be gone by April 

 

 

He absolutely should have said "prepare for years at your local level for what you're going to see New Zealand do unless my administration oversees a Manhattan style vaccine project in record time that will end this.  You're welcome."

 

Absolutely.  That would have done wonders for the country.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Big Blitz

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Just to the low info people that think the virus is Trump's fault as every major country on earth deals with exact same proportional numbers except Sweden, which did everything right except completely lock down ALF's in March.

 

 

I still want to know why those IFI numbers are so low on that graph.  Everything called Covid-like now.  

The IFI numbers are probably lower due to a combination of more people getting vaccinated (I'd have to check numbers on that) and the mitigating strategies used for Covid like masks and such.  The flu is different than Covid, it doesn't have anywhere near as long an incubation period before symptoms and illness show up (usually a day or two) so you are less likely to spread it - you feel sick quicker and stay home.

 

Trump is responsible for not taking this seriously enough from the get go, as is the PM in Italy when they got overwhelmed, as was Boris Johnson when England got hit.  They are the leaders of their countries; they have responsibility for marshalling what needs to be marshalled to fight it.  What did Trump do?  Lied about the severity as can now be seen from the Woodward interview.  Refused to encourage the mitigating strategies known to have an effect on transmission.  And when asked, he abdicated saying he felt no responsibility at all.  Real Presidents like Washington and Jackson and Polk aand Lincoln and the Roosevelts and Truman and Eisenhower and Reagan must have thrown up in their graves if they heard that. 

 

[Big Blitz]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The IFI numbers are probably lower due to a combination of more people getting vaccinated (I'd have to check numbers on that) and the mitigating strategies used for Covid like masks and such.  The flu is different than Covid, it doesn't have anywhere near as long an incubation period before symptoms and illness show up (usually a day or two) so you are less likely to spread it - you feel sick quicker and stay home.

 

Trump is responsible for not taking this seriously enough from the get go, as is the PM in Italy when they got overwhelmed, as was Boris Johnson when England got hit.  They are the leaders of their countries; they have responsibility for marshalling what needs to be marshalled to fight it.  What did Trump do?  Lied about the severity as can now be seen from the Woodward interview.  Refused to encourage the mitigating strategies known to have an effect on transmission.  And when asked, he abdicated saying he felt no responsibility at all.  Real Presidents like Washington and Jackson and Polk aand Lincoln and the Roosevelts and Truman and Eisenhower and Reagan must have thrown up in their graves if they heard that. 

 

 

 

No.  They would not have over an airborne virus that may or may not have been a biological attack on the planet by a country that sees the world growing more hostile to its policies.  

 

Let's ignore that.  Everyone else is.

 

Was the Spanish flu's death toll Woodrow Wilson's fault?  The media back then would have never been so political and stupid as to even ask such a question.  Thats only possible when you live among people that are begging to be ruled not governed.  But that generation was built different than the one currently that thinks there are 65 genders and it can lower the temperature of the Earth---as if that's a good thing.  

Edited December 1, 2020 by Big Blitz