bilzfancy Posted August 24, 2020 Posted August 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...Big Fredo gets honorable mention for letting 8,000 Chinese nationals pass through NYC AFTER Trump enacted the travel ban.....thus NYC served as the "Covid-19 Gateway to the US"......maybe he'll have a chapter in his new book blaming someone else............ Who's stupid idea is it to not let fans watch the Bills at Bills Stadium??
Magox Posted August 24, 2020 Posted August 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Taro T said: @Magox was wondering what your thoughts are on Madrid seeming to be having a 2nd spike. Did not expect that to occur (thought they'd been hit hard enough in their 1st go around to have reached the herd immunity threshold) but you've been looking at this far closer than yours truly. What seems to be missing here (or, more accurately, there)? I have to be honest with you, that one confounds me a little bit. I would be very interested in seeing some Seroprevalence studies from before this latest outbreak. Also, there was an interesting study that came out of Hong Kong that shows that some people are becoming reinfected after about 5 months but the good news is that they have T cell immunities and that they are barely showing symptoms so I wonder if some of that is going on. Right now at this stage, I just think we need more data to come up with a plausible explanation. I don't really have a good answer till I see a little more. But, it has sort of made my brain go a little haywire trying to figure that out. 1
shoshin Posted August 24, 2020 Posted August 24, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Magox said: I have to be honest with you, that one confounds me a little bit. I would be very interested in seeing some Seroprevalence studies from before this latest outbreak. Also, there was an interesting study that came out of Hong Kong that shows that some people are becoming reinfected after about 5 months but the good news is that they have T cell immunities and that they are barely showing symptoms so I wonder if some of that is going on. Right now at this stage, I just think we need more data to come up with a plausible explanation. I don't really have a good answer till I see a little more. But, it has sort of made my brain go a little haywire trying to figure that out. If you look at the UK that more or less didn't shut down (sort of a crappy half-shutdown like us) and Sweden, they are not seeing the second rise. UK data shows at most a little bump but not a big spike (so far): The shutdown countries, I believe, are just seeing the continuation of their initial wave, which was cut short by the draconian shutdowns. Or it could be a second wave and we're both wrong and there's not a herd immunity setting in long term. Time will tell but I suspect this isn't a second wave as much as a continuation of a wave that got cut off. Deaths are not rising particularly quickly in Spain and Italy, nor would we expect them to do so. Edited August 24, 2020 by shoshin 1 1 1
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted August 24, 2020 Posted August 24, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, bilzfancy said: Who's stupid idea is it to not let fans watch the Bills at Bills Stadium?? ...um....er....uh...oh....well....our very own renowned Covid-19 Handbook author Big Fredo.....do some quick sales tax math....say 70,000 in attendance at avg ticket of $60 bucks...Erie Co is 8.75%....$367,500 in lost revenue...say each fan spends $10 bucks at concessions....another $61,250.....$428,750 in sales tax forfeited FOR ONE GAME......my 27 yr old daughter runs a major event venue principally hosting weddings.....did $3 mil last year in revenues or another $240,000 in sales tax revenues...crickets so far in 2020, <50 people ins the clown's limit.....it is a very popular venue where Rochester's elite will spend $75,000-$125,000+ on a wedding.....he cries broke but stops the revenue stream.....at the same time, the clown is spending $450 MILLION to rehab rest stops on the NYS Thruway (I-90).......where you stop, use the restroom, grab a coffee and back on the road in 15 minutes...certainly has his priorities straight.... Edited August 24, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy 1 1
GG Posted August 24, 2020 Posted August 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, shoshin said: Or it could be a second wave and we're both wrong and there's not a herd immunity setting in long term. Time will tell but I suspect this isn't a second wave as much as a continuation of a wave that got cut off. Possible, but not likely given the little resurgence in any other previously hard hit location. I am still perplexed in why the virus hit a hard wall outside the immediate NYC commuting counties. The best plausible explanation is that the follow on mutations are much weaker once you get past the initial deadly strain. It's as if the particularly deadly European strain was specifically seeded in Brussels, London, Milan, Madrid, Paris & NYC ...
Magox Posted August 24, 2020 Posted August 24, 2020 At this rate we could possibly be below 900 deaths per day (7 day moving average) by the end of the week. Hospitalizations, cases, ICU’s, percent positive rates and deaths appear to have all turned the corner. 1
shoshin Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 (edited) Shocking the retreat that the fda has had to do from the 35% number in the plasma press conference. I'm just glad other scientists called BS and Hahn acknowledged it. https://www.axios.com/hahn-criticism-covid-19-plasma-remarks-justified-0f9ddf5e-13f5-498c-91e6-c406dcf4b512.html Really have to guard against the admin''s desire to push good news to better news. Hahn made his error multiple times and it was not a small one. Edited August 25, 2020 by shoshin 1
shoshin Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 9 hours ago, Magox said: At this rate we could possibly be below 900 deaths per day (7 day moving average) by the end of the week. Hospitalizations, cases, ICU’s, percent positive rates and deaths appear to have all turned the corner. Look at Worldometer and you'll see that yesterday's deaths were not even lower than the day before. I love the Covid tracking data but they close their day early and often miss the last CA update (it dumps to the next day). Sometimes they catch it, sometimes not. The data is going down but today will be a better measure of where we are relative to the weekly peak. 1
Magox Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 Every single metric continues to head lower. Yesterday we saw the 7 day moving average move down to 974. Two straight days now of total cases below 40k. Positive percent rate is getting really close to where it was 2 months ago. 1
BillStime Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 QTrump and his co conspirators/appointees FDA’s Hahn and HHS Azar made up a number not in the study. F.D.A. ‘Grossly Misrepresented’ Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say Most don't understand or appreciate how dangerous this is. 1
SoCal Deek Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 3 hours ago, shoshin said: Look at Worldometer and you'll see that yesterday's deaths were not even lower than the day before. I love the Covid tracking data but they close their day early and often miss the last CA update (it dumps to the next day). Sometimes they catch it, sometimes not. The data is going down but today will be a better measure of where we are relative to the weekly peak. Agreed, but you don’t have to feel wet to know it’s raining. Just look at the news reporting. They already know the latest panic porn has ebbed. Another end of the world as we know it ‘crisis’ has moved on through.
Magox Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 This is where I fall, drops in cases/deaths are reaching immunity levels and that social distancing similar to like how Sweden did it is as effective than lock downs. This analysis indicates Sweden got it right. (aside from their nursing home debacle) According to his model, his projections are right in line with what I was thinking which is to hit new lows in October. However, he does see it sort of bottoming out at that point. I don't really have a good feel for what will happen once we get to November and beyond. I do believe that we will see deaths continue and it won't go down to near zero. Neither does the flu. 1
Reality Check Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 26 minutes ago, BillStime said: QOP embraces mediocrity - every single day 1
RiotAct Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 5 hours ago, BillStime said: QTrump and his co conspirators/appointees FDA’s Hahn and HHS Azar made up a number not in the study. F.D.A. ‘Grossly Misrepresented’ Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say Most don't understand or appreciate how dangerous this is. how dangerous is it? On a scale of 1-10.
B-Man Posted August 25, 2020 Posted August 25, 2020 I’M SO OLD, I CAN REMEMBER “TWO WEEKS TO FLATTEN THE CURVE:” Four Life-Threatening Unintended Consequences of the Lockdowns. 2
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