The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[GG]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

With that said, look at what is beginning to happen in Spain, France and Germany.    The parts of Spain and France that weren't hit hard are now beginning to get hit and Germany who for the most part was spared is now having their turn.  Luckily for Germany, they will end up having good overall relative numbers when all is said and done because they were able to effectively be largely shielded from the virus on the first wave which is the worst wave.   They'll get hit now, but I would be surprised if they end up with over 250 daily deaths.

 

 

 

Wonder where I saw this pattern before?

 

Coinciding with the pattern of no more comparisons between Europe & US lately.

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

Wonder where I saw this pattern before?

 

Coinciding with the pattern of no more comparisons between Europe & US lately.

 

I don't know if it's right that "The parts of Spain and France that weren't hit hard are now beginning to get hit..." 

 

I only looked at Spain but the highest number of cases in Spain were in Madrid and Catalan before the lockdown.

 

Post the June reopening, Madrid and Catalan are also leading the rise of new cases.

 

 

It could be more likely that what's happening is that the draconian lockdowns stopped the spread, but once they reopened, the spread continued. 

 

To be clear, I do think this thing burns out to some level and we see that in the US. I don't think this is the dreaded second wave, but instead the end of the first wave that never finished. And I bet this is not as bad as the first wave if they allow it to hit (which they won't). 

Edited August 20, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

13 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Wonder where I saw this pattern before?

 

Coinciding with the pattern of no more comparisons between Europe & US lately.

 

We talked about it for months.  This is COVID musical chairs and eventually just about every country will get their turn. 

 

The problem with sanitized studies is that they are conducted in controlled environments under the assumption of full adherence as if humans are robots.  We know that after a while, unless you live in some authoritarian crack down-like regime controlled country, people will rebel and adherence drops.  Especially when you know that the risks of COVID are nowhere near as bad as the media makes it out to be.  Of course it's a tragedy, and that people are dying because of COVID, but many people realize that it's unfortunate that it got here but life must go on.

 

Sweden had it right all along, they went against the grain under tremendous pressure and their assumptions were right whereas all the mainstream experts and media got it wrong.  The amount of deaths that were predicted out of Sweden were incredibly high, much higher than the actual amount and now you have a country that has essentially reached herd-like immunity and the beauty of it all is that they didn't give up their freedoms.  They applied common sense social distancing measures and believed in the data that they saw.  Now you have all these other European countries that are getting hit again and here they are sailing into the future without having to worry about serious outbreaks.  At least so it seems.

[spartacus]

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/coronavirus-rolling-over-number-us-hospitalizations-declining-1-percent-day

 

the South is on the downside

 

country should open up and be back to normal

 

football in the South will confirm that cases do not translate to sickness

 

[GG]

25 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I don't know if it's right that "The parts of Spain and France that weren't hit hard are now beginning to get hit..." 

 

I only looked at Spain but the highest number of cases in Spain were in Madrid before the lockdown. Post-reopening, Madrid is leading the rise of new cases.

 

 

 

Is it really?  It's not that hard to check the links.

 

Quote

 

Aragon and Catalonia

Of the 18,564 infections detected since the end of lockdown, 6 out of every 10 occurred in Catalonia and Aragon, which are the two communities now most affected by the outbreaks.

In the last month, 8,748 infections have been confirmed in Catalonia, which is 47% of the total and 2,599 in Aragon, which is 14% of the total.

Madrid is in third place with 2,073 cases in a month, then Andalusia with 1,080.

Health Minister, Salvador Illa, has acknowledged that he is "especially" concerned about the situation in Aragon and Catalonia.

1,664 cases were detected in Aragon in the last seven days, compared to 91 on the day the State of Emergency ended, which is an increase of more than 1,700%.

3,935 cases were detected in Catalonia in the last 7 days, up 680% from 504 on June 21.

 

 

[GG]

10 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

We talked about it for months.  This is COVID musical chairs and eventually just about every country will get their turn. 

 

The problem with sanitized studies is that they are conducted in controlled environments under the assumption of full adherence as if humans are robots.  We know that after a while, unless you live in some authoritarian crack down-like regime controlled country, people will rebel and adherence drops.  Especially when you know that the risks of COVID are nowhere near as bad as the media makes it out to be.  Of course it's a tragedy, and that people are dying because of COVID, but many people realize that it's unfortunate that it got here but life must go on.

 

Sweden had it right all along, they went against the grain under tremendous pressure and their assumptions were right whereas all the mainstream experts and media got it wrong.  The amount of deaths that were predicted out of Sweden were incredibly high, much higher than the actual amount and now you have a country that has essentially reached herd-like immunity and the beauty of it all is that they didn't give up their freedoms.  They applied common sense social distancing measures and believed in the data that they saw.  Now you have all these other European countries that are getting hit again and here they are sailing into the future without having to worry about serious outbreaks.  At least so it seems.

 

The data is becoming more clear by the day as we're seven months into a pandemic.   The lockdown was needed to buy time to "flatten the curve" and figure out the most effective treatments.   All of those were accomplished by the end of May.    The entire country should have started a staged reopening at that time, with everything in place to return to normal by September.

 

During that time, the virus would have spread in the previously unaffected regions, but would be weaker in the summertime, and more importantly only affect the younger and healthier part of the population.  For all the screaming about the Sunbelt outbreak, FL & TX mortality is below the national average, while AZ is just above it.  None are anywhere near where the Northeast was in the spring.   This clearly shows that people and the healthcare industry knew how to prepare for and manage the outbreak.

[shoshin]

30 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Is it really?  It's not that hard to check the links.

 

 

 

Your link is from a month ago. 

 

The data I pasted--and the article Magox linked--is from yesterday. 

 

Just a mistake on your part. 

Edited August 20, 2020 by shoshin

[spartacus]

35 minutes ago, GG said:

 

The data is becoming more clear by the day as we're seven months into a pandemic.   The lockdown was needed to buy time to "flatten the curve" and figure out the most effective treatments.   All of those were accomplished by the end of May.    The entire country should have started a staged reopening at that time, with everything in place to return to normal by September.

 

During that time, the virus would have spread in the previously unaffected regions, but would be weaker in the summertime, and more importantly only affect the younger and healthier part of the population.  For all the screaming about the Sunbelt outbreak, FL & TX mortality is below the national average, while AZ is just above it.  None are anywhere near where the Northeast was in the spring.   This clearly shows that people and the healthcare industry knew how to prepare for and manage the outbreak.

 

media grandstanding has been effective at brainwashing Americans into accepting draconian measures based on false data

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/americans-misunderstand-covid-19-death-risk

 

Americans “dramatically misunderstand” the risk of death they face during the coronavirus pandemic, according to the findings of a joint Franklin Templeton-Gallup research project released last month.

Researchers found that Americans overestimate the mortality rate for people aged 55 or younger, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through July 22. For example, respondents estimated that people aged 44 or younger accounted for 30 percent of U.S. COVID-19 deaths, when the actual figure for that age group was 2.7 percent.

Conversely, Americans estimated that people aged 55 or older accounted for roughly 57 percent of COVID-19 deaths, when the actual figure was 92 percent. Americans thought people aged 65 or older accounted for roughly 40 percent of COVID-19 deaths, when the actual figure was 80 percent.

 

[B-Man]

MORE EVIDENCE THAT SHUTDOWNS ARE USELESS

Governments around the world have responded to COVID-19 with more or less harsh (but, of course, never complete) shutdowns of economic and social activity.

 

The costs of these shutdowns have been enormous, obvious and undeniable, while the alleged benefits have been hypothetical and speculative.

 

As experience with the virus accumulates, there is, I think, a growing consensus that the shutdowns have been worthless, or close to worthless.

 

Dr. Gilbert Berdine, an associate professor of medicine at Texas Tech University’s Health Sciences Center, assembles some revealing information in the form of this chart, which compares daily COVID deaths per million of population in Sweden, New York, Illinois and Texas. First, a note of caution. I don’t know, and I am not sure whether anyone knows, whether different countries (or even states) count “COVID deaths” in the same way. If American states follow CDC guidance, a “COVID death” does not mean that COVID was the cause of death. It means that a person 1) died, and 2) had COVID. Thus, gunshot victims have been counted as COVID deaths. Do European countries follow this extremely misleading practice, and do states follow it uniformly? I don’t know. With that caveat, here is the chart. Click to enlarge:

 

 

{SNIP}

 

 

What is the conclusion?

The data suggest that lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long term.

 

It seems likely that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life, as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk.

 

After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this generation.

 

That is what I think, too.

 

 

 

 

[spartacus]

looks like your body may already be doing more effectively and for a longer effective period than what the vaunted vaccine can deliver

 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/novel-breakthrough-new-studies-show-memory-t-cells-offer-long-term-and-pre-existing-covid

 

QUOTE

"These previous studies also found that many people who never had COVID-19 seem to have memory T cells that can recognize the new virus. This, of course, would mean that the virus isn't a "novel" as we once thought. In the July study, more than half of people already had the T cells and in the Nature study, more than one third already had the T cells. 

 

Another study published earlier in August showed that 25 people who never had COVID-19 had memory T cells that could recognize it. In other words, they had some form of pre-existing immunity. 

The lifespan of such T cells can be immense. For example, in the July study, T cells in blood samples from 23 people who survived SARS were still there 17 years later. The same T cells "could recognize the new coronavirus". 

[whatdrought]

Oh look, the government is full of pieces of *****. Who knew?

 

https://www.wpxi.com/news/investigates/confidential-agreement-uncovered-allowed-car-show-happen-despite-covid-19-restrictions/BUN43H7C3ZDCJJ2MIIEYXRN6AU/?fbclid=IwAR01GH-rKBunraol26iS0pcWHbbMIIAItf51xJ8K8qRCxwZjNSyo5acRFvk

[Magox]

 

 

More on the Excess deaths for people under the age of 44.

 

If you look at this CDC table of people below the age of 44 - "COVID" related deaths have ranged each week from about 150 to 400 at it's peak.

 

 

 

And if you look at the overall excess deaths for people below the age of 44

 

 

If you click on the link and you look at the grey line which is the line that shows the normal amount of deaths week by week for the age group you will see that the average deaths per week ranges anywhere from about 2400-2700 per week.

 

However, if you look at the red line which is the excess deaths ranges from about 3400-3700 deaths per week.    That is a delta of approximately 1000 more deaths per week than normal.

 

 

According to CDC we have had about 150-400 deaths per week due to COVID in this under age 44 category - lets use a means of about 275.  And you look at the overall excess deaths that is approximately 1000 per week, according to CDC.  If you extrapolate the data according to CDC known COVID deaths to excess deaths, that is approximately about 725 excess deaths NONCOVID related per week vs 275 COVID deaths.

 

Which is perfectly inline with the tweet that was previously posted.

 

Of course, common sense told us that most of the excess deaths under the age of 44 would not be COVID related.  

 

Yet again, Shoshin is on the wrong side of the argument.    Seems like this is an ongoing trend for him. 

 

And here is Berenson Making the same case but using different methodology.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by Magox

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, spartacus said:

 

media grandstanding has been effective at brainwashing Americans into accepting draconian measures based on false data

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/americans-misunderstand-covid-19-death-risk

 

Americans “dramatically misunderstand” the risk of death they face during the coronavirus pandemic, according to the findings of a joint Franklin Templeton-Gallup research project released last month.

Researchers found that Americans overestimate the mortality rate for people aged 55 or younger, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through July 22. For example, respondents estimated that people aged 44 or younger accounted for 30 percent of U.S. COVID-19 deaths, when the actual figure for that age group was 2.7 percent.

Conversely, Americans estimated that people aged 55 or older accounted for roughly 57 percent of COVID-19 deaths, when the actual figure was 92 percent. Americans thought people aged 65 or older accounted for roughly 40 percent of COVID-19 deaths, when the actual figure was 80 percent.

 

Walked the dog last night. Met up with another woman walking her dog. None of us were in masks. She brought up covid and I told her about the NYS numbers. She was afraid to here how bad they currently are, so admitted she had not checked. When I told her we have not had 800 cases in a day since the beginning of June, she just looked at me.

Our media deserves a public flogging.



 

Edited August 20, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal

[spartacus]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Walked the dog last night. Met up with another woman walking her dog. None of us were in masks. She brought up covid and I told her about the NYS numbers. She was afraid to here how bad they currently are, so admitted she had not checjed. When I told her we have not had 800 cases in a day since the beginning of June, she just looked at me.

Our media deserves a public flogging.



 

stop at nothing to get Orangeman out of office

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

 

More on the Excess deaths for people under the age of 44.

 

If you look at this CDC table of people below the age of 44 - "COVID" related deaths have ranged each week from about 150 to 400 at it's peak.

 

 

 

And if you look at the overall excess deaths for people below the age of 44

 

 

If you click on the link and you look at the grey line which is the line that shows the normal amount of deaths week by week for the age group you will see that the average deaths per week ranges anywhere from about 2400-2700 per week.

 

However, if you look at the red line which is the excess deaths ranges from about 3400-3700 deaths per week.    That is a delta of approximately 1000 more deaths per week than normal.

 

 

According to CDC we have had about 150-400 deaths per week due to COVID in this under age 44 category - lets use a means of about 275.  And you look at the overall excess deaths that is approximately 1000 per week, according to CDC.  If you extrapolate the data according to CDC known COVID deaths to excess deaths, that is approximately about 725 excess deaths NONCOVID related per week vs 275 COVID deaths.

 

Which is perfectly inline with the tweet that was previously posted.

 

Of course, common sense told us that most of the excess deaths under the age of 44 would not be COVID related.  

 

Yet again, Shoshin is on the wrong side of the argument.    Seems like this is an ongoing trend for him. 

 

Let's try this again. The problem with that "article" was that he concluded "Many of these deaths are likely from suicide, despair, alcohol and drug abuse, and violence.“

 

The cause of death is not a conclusion backed by his data, and that's why it's shiffy. And there's also the issue that the CDC is about 20,000 deaths behind in matching Covid deaths so some of those deaths in the "non-Covid" pile that you're pointing to are actually Covid deaths. How many, I don't know. But that article makes no effort to account for this pretty big and known problem in the data set. 

So you repeated his data, said I'm wrong, and ignored the gaping chasm of a hole in his conclusion.

 

I credit you with being smart enough to avoid the actual problems with your article. That's wise. 

Edited August 20, 2020 by shoshin

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

MORE EVIDENCE THAT SHUTDOWNS ARE USELESS

Governments around the world have responded to COVID-19 with more or less harsh (but, of course, never complete) shutdowns of economic and social activity.

 

The costs of these shutdowns have been enormous, obvious and undeniable, while the alleged benefits have been hypothetical and speculative.

 

As experience with the virus accumulates, there is, I think, a growing consensus that the shutdowns have been worthless, or close to worthless.

 

Dr. Gilbert Berdine, an associate professor of medicine at Texas Tech University’s Health Sciences Center, assembles some revealing information in the form of this chart, which compares daily COVID deaths per million of population in Sweden, New York, Illinois and Texas. First, a note of caution. I don’t know, and I am not sure whether anyone knows, whether different countries (or even states) count “COVID deaths” in the same way. If American states follow CDC guidance, a “COVID death” does not mean that COVID was the cause of death. It means that a person 1) died, and 2) had COVID. Thus, gunshot victims have been counted as COVID deaths. Do European countries follow this extremely misleading practice, and do states follow it uniformly? I don’t know. With that caveat, here is the chart. Click to enlarge:

 

 

{SNIP}

 

 

What is the conclusion?

The data suggest that lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long term.

 

It seems likely that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life, as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk.

 

After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this generation.

 

That is what I think, too.

 

 

 

 

Tell you what.  Go to a COVUD ICU in Phoenix w/o PPE and let us know how it goes in a couple of weeks.  I’ll call ahead so you don’t need your passport to get in! 

[B-Man]

Just now, SectionC3 said:

Tell you what.  Go to a COVUD ICU in Phoenix w/o PPE and let us know how it goes in a couple of weeks.  I’ll call ahead so you don’t need your passport to get in! 

 

 

You are of course aware, that I worked in and was in charge of an ICU from 1982 to 1992.

 

 

 

 

 

[SectionC3]

7 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

You are of course aware, that I worked in and was in charge of an ICU from 1982 to 1992.

 

 

 

 

 

All the more reason you have no excuse for believing these hoaxes. 

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Let's try this again. The problem with that "article" was that he concluded "Many of these deaths are likely from suicide, despair, alcohol and drug abuse, and violence.“

 

The cause of death is not a conclusion backed by his data, and that's why it's shiffy. And there's also the issue that the CDC is about 20,000 deaths behind in matching Covid deaths so some of those deaths in the "non-Covid" pile that you're pointing to are actually Covid deaths. How many, I don't know. But that article makes no effort to account for this pretty big and known problem in the data set. 

So you repeated his data, said I'm wrong, and ignored the gaping chasm of a hole in his conclusion.

 

I credit you with being smart enough to avoid the actual problems with your article. That's wise. 

 

I know that you aren't much of a critical thinker and you prove that day in and day out. 

 

But are you seriously this mind numbingly thick-headed?  

 

The only analysis that you are ever able to provide is not your own but something parroted from mainstream analysts or sources such as the underlined portion.   You don't have what it takes to understand that the huge disparity between NON COVID related deaths and COVID related deaths cannot be explained with your silly explanation.  That somehow,  there is a significant undercount of COVID related deaths of people age 44 and below.  

 

Do you not see how stupid that is?  Seriously, do you not see that?   We know that people who contract the virus below the age of 45 have a mortality rate of anywhere between .01% -.2%   of dying....And you mean to tell me that there is an under count of anywhere between 100%-300% of the recorded COVID death count.

 

GTFO.

 

Go troll someone else.  

 

"Reason is not automatic. Those who deny it cannot be conquered by it. Do not count on them. Leave them alone."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SectionC3]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I know that you aren't much of a critical thinker and you prove that day in and day out. 

 

But are you seriously this mind numbingly thick-headed?  

 

The only analysis that you are ever able to provide is not your own but something parroted from mainstream analysts or sources such as the underlined portion.   You don't have what it takes to understand that the huge disparity between NON COVID related deaths and COVID related deaths cannot be explained with your silly explanation.  That somehow,  there is a significant undercount of COVID related deaths of people age 44 and below.  

 

Do you not see how stupid that is?  Seriously, do you not see that?   We know that people who contract the virus below the age of 45 have a mortality rate of anywhere between .01% -.2%   of dying....And you mean to tell me that there is an under count of anywhere between 100%-300% of the recorded COVID death count.

 

GTFO.

 

Go troll someone else.  

 

"Reason is not automatic. Those who deny it cannot be conquered by it. Do not count on them. Leave them alone."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hoax.  You’re the numbskull.