The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[B-Man]

 

 

We’ve posted videos before of people losing it on other people for not wearing a mask, approaching them at the checkout and telling their kids, “I hope you all die.” But a New York man was so upset at the sight of a Jewish children’s camp filled with kids not wearing masks and not social distancing that he told the cops if they didn’t do something, he’d go over with a machine gun and shoot them all. Talk about triggered.

 

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/08/19/heavily-armed-man-loses-it-threatens-to-shoot-up-yeshiva-camp-because-the-kids-werent-wearing-masks/

 

 

 

 

[Magox]

4 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Are we still debating the "Euro-Virus" as Governor Cuomo called it the other night or are we onto another virus now? I've lost track of what we're allowed to say and not say.

He’s such a tool.   By his very own logic, we should all be calling it the New York virus since NY seeded the infections throughout the country.

[B-Man]

 

 

[Q-baby!]

8 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

You getting paid per post? 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Ya @Magox  Thanks man for info and what you post.

 

I think I remember you wear a mask for others.  My mother one of those people. 

 

Just wanted to say thank  you for info and been helpful. Most accurate here. Thanks for sharing man.

 

I really think this virus might die out but might hear other countries might have a hard time. But ya man USA might be better in fall. The T cell what u posted helped lots.  Banking on that for people. 

 

it's amazing human body can do. Like this virus and burns and such as well. Thanks man you have helped me most. Trust you lots with info man. 

 

Keep searching man been helpful. Virus without much mutation might die out when all said when done someday.

[B-Man]

31 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

 

You getting paid per post? 

 

 

 

Just in enjoyment, yes.

 

?

 

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Just in enjoyment, yes.

 

?

 

 

Lol that's a awful post by that guy. Content might come down.  Others should put that person on ignore while real things helping others here. Magox  like have real context and stuff here.

Edited August 20, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Q-baby!]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Lol that's a awful post by that guy. Content might come down.  Others should put that person on ignore while real things helping others here. Magox  like have real context and stuff here.

Is that English? 

[shoshin]

17 hours ago, Magox said:

A sobering analysis of the excess deaths that the stringent social distancing measures are causing.  It goes back to previous discussions we've had on excess deaths and how it's very likely that the Years Lost will be higher among people who indirectly died from COVID stringent measures as the Years lost to people who directly died from COVID.

 

What a complete cluster $%#% .   Just shows you that policy makers are morons.

 

 

There is no evidence presented for the conclusion, “Many of these deaths are likely from suicide, despair, alcohol and drug abuse, and violence.“

 

There may be something to that—and I’m sure there is actually— but it’s a clumsy conclusion not backed by the data presented.

Further, the article notes that the cdc data on Covid categorization lags but does no analysis on how that affects the paper’s data. For example, the CDC was 30,000+ deaths behind just a few weeks ago. So the excess deaths may be largely attributed to Covid deaths not yet categorized as such. 
 

In all, it’s an incomplete article posing as an academic paper on the Twitter-net. I hope he does more work to backfill this data in 2 months, through this same date. Then he can identify the gap in excess deaths if there is one, but maybe not yet the causes. 
 

Bad source. 

 

 

[Westside]

On 8/18/2020 at 9:10 AM, Foxx said:

https://twitter.com/Americanlll/status/1295417128594444288

 

This is all on the left's fault. Keep perpetuating the fear to get Trump out of office. Purely selfish reasons by the Democrats. The blood is on your hands commie Democrats!!

[SectionC3]

7 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Just in enjoyment, yes.

 

?

 

 

You’re weird.  You post right wing hate most days, and then allegedly attend church on Sunday.  You are one conflicted guy. 

[Magox]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

There is no evidence presented for the conclusion, “Many of these deaths are likely from suicide, despair, alcohol and drug abuse, and violence.“

 

There may be something to that—and I’m sure there is actually— but it’s a clumsy conclusion not backed by the data presented.

Further, the article notes that the cdc data on Covid categorization lags but does no analysis on how that affects the paper’s data. For example, the CDC was 30,000+ deaths behind just a few weeks ago. So the excess deaths may be largely attributed to Covid deaths not yet categorized as such. 
 

In all, it’s an incomplete article posing as an academic paper on the Twitter-net. I hope he does more work to backfill this data in 2 months, through this same date. Then he can identify the gap in excess deaths if there is one, but maybe not yet the causes. 
 

Bad source. 

 

 

 

 

You truly do not have any ability to digest information that is not spoon fed to you from mainstream sources.....

[Magox]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Ya @Magox  Thanks man for info and what you post.

 

I think I remember you wear a mask for others.  My mother one of those people. 

 

Just wanted to say thank  you for info and been helpful. Most accurate here. Thanks for sharing man.

 

I really think this virus might die out but might hear other countries might have a hard time. But ya man USA might be better in fall. The T cell what u posted helped lots.  Banking on that for people. 

 

it's amazing human body can do. Like this virus and burns and such as well. Thanks man you have helped me most. Trust you lots with info man. 

 

Keep searching man been helpful. Virus without much mutation might die out when all said when done someday.

 

Yeah, I wear masks out of respect for others more so than anything else.

 

And yeah, the virus most likely will stay with us for years but most likely it will become one of the cadre of human corona viruses that are already with us.  My guess is that by spring of next year, the virus won't pose a significant threat with all the t-cell/antibody immunities along with the 50% of the population who will take vaccines.  

 

The worst part about all of this has been the insane responses from governments world wide, their actions while somewhat understandable early on will have caused more excess deaths and residual negative effects for people under the age of 60 than the virus itself.  That is already being borne out in the numbers that are available to us.  The question really remains is how many more deaths.  And when you look at it from a years lost perspective, it's just been a complete disaster.  

 

Hopefully once time passes by and the politics is hopefully taken out of the equation there will be a full analysis on the overall impact of these crazy governmental responses.

[ziltoid]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

There is no evidence presented for the conclusion, “Many of these deaths are likely from suicide, despair, alcohol and drug abuse, and violence.“

 

There may be something to that—and I’m sure there is actually— but it’s a clumsy conclusion not backed by the data presented.

Further, the article notes that the cdc data on Covid categorization lags but does no analysis on how that affects the paper’s data. For example, the CDC was 30,000+ deaths behind just a few weeks ago. So the excess deaths may be largely attributed to Covid deaths not yet categorized as such. 
 

In all, it’s an incomplete article posing as an academic paper on the Twitter-net. I hope he does more work to backfill this data in 2 months, through this same date. Then he can identify the gap in excess deaths if there is one, but maybe not yet the causes. 
 

Bad source. 

 

 

 

@Magox & @shoshin

 

I find it amazing that it takes 3-6 months to ultimately decide and categorize how people die.  I guess it takes a pandemic where you want to make real time policy decisions to reveal this.  If this pandemic and it's response is truly about public safety and not straight up politics, then a reform of the state and CDC disease categorization process should be on both presidential candidate's agendas.  2 weeks lag tops.

 

But I fear I am asking for way too much.

Edited August 20, 2020 by BeerLeagueHockey

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

 

@Magox & @shoshin

 

I find it amazing that it takes 3-6 months to ultimately decide and categorize how people die.  I guess it takes a pandemic where you want to make real time policy decisions to reveal this.  If this pandemic and it's response is truly about public safety and not straight up politics, then a reform of the state and CDC disease categorization process should be on both presidential candidate's agendas.  2 weeks lag tops.

 

But I fear I am asking for way too much.

 

Sometimes you just have to use common sense in the absence of granular data.  Unfortunately, common sense is innate and you either have it or you don't.

 

The problem is you have too many linear thinkers who view things in a vacuum and are unable to see things from a  3 D perspective which is badly needed in such a tremendously complex issue such is this.  If you understood the numbers and risks, you'd have to be a real fool to believe that COVID has taken away more lives from people under the age of 45 than the residual indirect related deleterious effects of stringent social distancing measures.    

 

With that said, look at what is beginning to happen in Spain, France and Germany.    The parts of Spain and France that weren't hit hard are now beginning to get hit and Germany who for the most part was spared is now having their turn.  Luckily for Germany, they will end up having good overall relative numbers when all is said and done because they were able to effectively be largely shielded from the virus on the first wave which is the worst wave.   They'll get hit now, but I would be surprised if they end up with over 250 daily deaths.

 

The people don't want to go back to these strict lock downs and mask usage is only going to help on the margins.  It's inevitable as many of us have said on this board for months.

 

Quote

Germany and Spain have both recorded their highest respective daily coronavirus infection rate since April, with other countries in the region also reporting a sharp rise in new cases.

 

Quote

Meanwhile, France’s health ministry reported 3,776 new Covid-19 infections on Wednesday, with the daily tally going above 3,000 for the third time in the last five days. France has recorded a similar number of cases to Italy, with 30,434 deaths.

 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

 

You truly do not have any ability to digest information that is not spoon fed to you from mainstream sources.....

 

Every time I hit you on any numbers, you resort to this trope. It's weak. I'm not sure why you run from the numbers. 

 

It's a certainty that a mental health crisis is leading to more deaths. Nothing in that paper shows that, however, despite its "conclusion." It's a paper that alleges to show a death spike but doesn't account for the CDC's lag in confirming Covid deaths, and then concludes the spike is due to mental health-related violence, without any causal link. You are drawn to papers that back your conclusion without questioning the sources and that's a bad source.

 

I was hoping for a really good source on the subject, actually, as I've been trying to make the same point (mental health issues are spiking) on OTW and with others. There's a CDC report on this from last week by the way if you want to check it out. It doesn't have suicide and homicide data--but does have other mental health stats that show likely effects of Covid when you compare 2020 to 2019 (see footnotes 1 and 2).

 

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been associated with mental health challenges related to the morbidity and mortality caused by the disease and to mitigation activities, including the impact of physical distancing and stay-at-home orders.* Symptoms of anxiety disorder and depressive disorder increased considerably in the United States during April–June of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019 (1,2). To assess mental health, substance use, and suicidal ideation during the pandemic, representative panel surveys were conducted among adults aged ≥18 years across the United States during June 24–30, 2020. Overall, 40.9% of respondents reported at least one adverse mental or behavioral health condition, including symptoms of anxiety disorder or depressive disorder (30.9%), symptoms of a trauma- and stressor-related disorder (TSRD) related to the pandemic^† (26.3%), and having started or increased substance use to cope with stress or emotions related to COVID-19 (13.3%). The percentage of respondents who reported having seriously considered suicide in the 30 days before completing the survey (10.7%) was significantly higher among respondents aged 18–24 years (25.5%), minority racial/ethnic groups (Hispanic respondents [18.6%], non-Hispanic black [black] respondents [15.1%]), self-reported unpaid caregivers for adults^§ (30.7%), and essential workers^¶ (21.7%). Community-level intervention and prevention efforts, including health communication strategies, designed to reach these groups could help address various mental health conditions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Edited August 20, 2020 by shoshin

[SoCal Deek]

Wait a minute. You guys are really having to look up studies to tell you that locking people away from human contact for months and having them wear masks in public so they won’t catch an invisible virus and DIE isn’t good for their mental health? Really? 

[shoshin]

35 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Wait a minute. You guys are really having to look up studies to tell you that locking people away from human contact for months and having them wear masks in public so they won’t catch an invisible virus and DIE isn’t good for their mental health? Really? 

 

No, but here's the thing: The studies provide the data to back up your gut feel.

 

Suicides are up seems like a reasonable hypothesis. But until you know how much higher suicides are in 2020 than 2019, you can't say it definitively. 

 

The problem with that article thing Magox cited is that it purports to show an increase in non-Covid deaths, and then concludes that the "deaths are likely from suicide, despair, alcohol and drug abuse, and violence“ with ZERO causal linkage. Could those deaths be due to people not getting medical care because they fear going to the hospital? Could they be from accidental deaths resulting from staying home? Could they be due to complications arising from an increase in sedentary behavior? Could they be from Covid and the CDC has yet to categorize them as such? Who knows and certainly not that author. 

 

It's a bad article. Magox knows it and that's why he's not defending it on the merits. 

Edited August 20, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

No, but here's the thing: The studies provide the data to back up your gut feel.

 

Suicides are up seems like a reasonable hypothesis. But until you know how much higher suicides are in 2020 than 2019, you can't say it definitively. 

 

The problem with that article thing Magox cited is that it purports to show an increase in non-Covid deaths, and then concludes that the "deaths are likely from suicide, despair, alcohol and drug abuse, and violence“ with ZERO causal linkage. Could those deaths be due to people not getting medical care because they fear going to the hospital? Could they be from accidental deaths resulting from staying home? Could they be due to complications arising from an increase in sedentary behavior? Could they be from Covid and the CDC has yet to categorize them as such? Who knows and certainly not that author. 

 

It's a bad article. Magox knows it and that's why he's not defending it on the merits. 

 

You have 0 common sense.

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

No, but here's the thing: The studies provide the data to back up your gut feel.

 

Suicides are up seems like a reasonable hypothesis. But until you know how much higher suicides are in 2020 than 2019, you can't say it definitively. 

 

The problem with that article thing Magox cited is that it purports to show an increase in non-Covid deaths, and then concludes that the "deaths are likely from suicide, despair, alcohol and drug abuse, and violence“ with ZERO causal linkage. Could those deaths be due to people not getting medical care because they fear going to the hospital? Could they be from accidental deaths resulting from staying home? Could they be due to complications arising from an increase in sedentary behavior? Could they be from Covid and the CDC has yet to categorize them as such? Who knows and certainly not that author. 

 

It's a bad article. Magox knows it and that's why he's not defending it on the merits. 

Here’s the REAL thing. Covid 19 is not killing people at that significant of a rate. It just isn’t. I stopped quoting the daily stats because it became repetitive. Still to this day, after more than six months of this, 80% of the States are in single digit fatalities. Those numbers are for entire states! And we all know the overwhelming majority of this deaths are in the elderly population many of who have other contributing factors.