The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Hedge]

33 minutes ago, Nanker said:

4% for regular flu. According to the CDC. 

 

To quote a line from your avatar's movie:

"You know much that is hidden O Tim."

 

Source that claim, if you don't mind, because it sounds like nonsense. It doesn't appear to be close to that in the US, so I think you just may be misremembering what you saw at some point. Are you quoting for some single backwater country that severely lacks medical services?

 

These are the CDC numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

Below, I've added the mortality rate (because this CDC page I linked doesn't show that particular stat) and since the 2010/2011 season it has not surpassed 0.18%, and it has averaged closer to 0.13% in the same time frame.

I also added in your 4%, so you can see how high a death toll that would have actually been (*astronomical*).

 

 

[Nanker]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2018-2019.htm

Hedge, it’s not the deaths per people with “symptoms”. It’s the deaths per actual hospitalizations. Most deaths occur in hospitals. Not all, but most. And those largely are due to the concomitant pneumonia. 

[Bakin]

7 hours ago, Nanker said:

4% for regular flu. According to the CDC. 

Not death rate. 
20M Americans caught flu this year so far. 
10,000 deaths. 
0.05% mortality rate. 

40,000 Coronavirus infections

1,000 deaths 

2.5% mortality. 
 

crude numbers but Corona is 50 times more deadly. 

[Nanker]

31 minutes ago, Bakin said:

Not death rate. 
20M Americans caught flu this year so far. 
10,000 deaths. 
0.05% mortality rate. 

40,000 Coronavirus infections

1,000 deaths 

2.5% mortality. 
 

crude numbers but Corona is 50 times more deadly. 

20,000,000 Americans were not hospitalized with the flu. 

[/dev/null]

2 hours ago, Nanker said:

20,000,000 Americans were not hospitalized with the flu. 

I have a few friends and coworkers that caught the flu but were not hospitalized.  Because it's the flu and western medicine can treat it with OTC medication

[Hedge]

3 hours ago, Nanker said:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2018-2019.htm

Hedge, it’s not the deaths per people with “symptoms”. It’s the deaths per actual hospitalizations. Most deaths occur in hospitals. Not all, but most. And those largely are due to the concomitant pneumonia. 

 

Thanks. I didn't realize that the CDC considered that hospitalizations must be the factor for deciding the overall population to calculate against, rather than the total number of people who actually had a disease. It seems odd to use a sub-population for this calculation, but it's definitely not my field.

 

[Bakin]

2 hours ago, Nanker said:

20,000,000 Americans were not hospitalized with the flu. 

And 43000 were not hospitalized by N-COV. Those are just confirmed infected numbers.
Same as flu infections. 

10 hours ago, bbb said:

 

What are the parellels?

The Transmission rate appears similar. 
cytokine storms in affected individuals leading to organ failure. 
Ro of 3-4???  That’s very high. More than 3-4 times that of seasonal flu. 

of course the weaker and sicker are more likely to succumb to this but that can change. 
And where is the data for children dying?  I haven’t seen one child die from this. 

[Hedge]

 

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

11 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Why did China lock down so many people if this isn’t serious? 

As i watch what's going on in China, on the cruise ship with the stranded passengers, and the videos circulating on the web, I'm struck by how much it all resembles a show I watched last season on Netflix.  Can't recall the name, but it's some version of "CONTAGION!", "VIRUS" or "DEATHZONE PART DEUX: YOU THOUGHT YOU MADE IT!". 

 

Numbers aside, and thanks to @Hedge and others for their work here, but it sure feels like it's a situation getting exponentially uglier by the day. 

 

 

[4merper4mer]

6 minutes ago, Hedge said:

 

 

The lobbying power of people who hump bats is stronger than I would have expected. IMHO there should be a stigma to being a bat humper.  

[3rdnlng]

A Mexican beer named Corona may be going the same way as Chi-Chi's. 

[Hedge]

21 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

The lobbying power of people who hump bats is stronger than I would have expected. IMHO there should be a stigma to being a bat humper.  

 

It may not have been bat humpers.

 

 

[Bakin]

What's truly unnerving is the possibility of this being a biological weapon...

either released intentionally or unintentionally...

Would like to see confirmation of this though I'm not really sure what to trust these days...

[bbb]

1 hour ago, Bakin said:

And 43000 were not hospitalized by N-COV. Those are just confirmed infected numbers.
Same as flu infections. 

The Transmission rate appears similar. 
cytokine storms in affected individuals leading to organ failure. 
Ro of 3-4???  That’s very high. More than 3-4 times that of seasonal flu. 

of course the weaker and sicker are more likely to succumb to this but that can change. 
And where is the data for children dying?  I haven’t seen one child die from this. 

 

OK.  I was able to find out what cytokine storms are.  But, what is Ro?

[Koko78]

8 minutes ago, Hedge said:

 

It may not have been bat humpers.

 

 

 

Thank God it's the Chinese government giving out data on the virus, because they totally are trustworthy and don't do things like this:

 

[Dante]

17 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

This thing has killed what? 200 people over the course of a month. Mortality rate roughly 3 percent, which I don't buy because that's based on confirmed cases and God knows how many people had the virus, but were never diagnosed. 

 

There won't be any doubt when a true threat emerges.

Nothing but fear porn. All bullshite as usual. I think the Kobe crash did a lot to cure it. Anyway, if you want a real health threat how about pneumonia that offs 50k people a year in the US

Edited February 11, 2020 by Dante

[Bakin]

1 minute ago, bbb said:

 

OK.  I was able to find out what cytokine storms are.  But, what is Ro?

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, Dante said:

Nothing but fear porn. All bullshite as usual. I think the Kobe crash did a lot to cure it. Anyway, if you want a real health threat how about pneumonia that offs 50k people a year in the US

 

China possibly not giving out real numbers. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/coronavirus-patients-may-not-show-symptoms-for-over-3-weeks-study-says_3233985.html

 

The incubation period for the new coronavirus can be as long as 24 days, according to the largest-study yet analyzing patients of the disease.

 

The Feb. 9 study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, was led by renowned Chinese respiratory doctor Zhong Nanshan and written in collaboration between 37 Chinese researchers. It analyzed around 1,100 patients across 31 provinces and 552 hospitals, and found that the median incubation period is 3 days, lower than a previous estimate of 5.2 days.

The maximum incubation period is 24 days, it found—up from two weeks as previously projected.

The researchers also could not exclude the possibility of super-spreaders—a sick individual who can infect a large number of others.

Rapid Human-to-Human Transmission

The study also found further evidence of human-to-human transmission: around 160 people—26 percent of non-Wuhan residents—did not travel to Wuhan recently prior to contracting the virus, nor did they have any contact with Wuhan locals.

“The 2019-nCoV epidemic spreads rapidly by human-to-human transmission,” it concluded.

[IDBillzFan]

51 minutes ago, Dante said:

Nothing but fear porn. All bullshite as usual. I think the Kobe crash did a lot to cure it. Anyway, if you want a real health threat how about pneumonia that offs 50k people a year in the US

 

Or abortion, which offs about 650,000 per year.