The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

Once we have a vaccine, it will not be widely available so that is just talk.

 

HCWS, at risk, older folks, then probably open for all. It'll take a couple years before it's out there for anyone would be my guess. And it doesn't matter because tons of people--most posters here at PPP--won't bother taking it.  

I thought the deal is they are pre-producing 4 of the most likely vaccines now..the Pfizer deal the other day was part of this...i may be wrong, but that is what i thought

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

Cuomo's challenge was threefold: (1) No place is like NYC in all of America, (2) We sucked at treatment, and (3) We sucked at prevention.

 

Every other state should do better than NY. We could have all done much, much better, but we didn't take prevention seriously and now just are watching it spread. 

No doubt he had a different challenge.But by early April it was apparent this thing was attacking nursing homes with a vengeance, and he did not rescind the order till May 10. And plenty of experts, HCW, and people on this board were killing him for it on here. He made a mistake, its okay..everyone was still learning at that point.

 

And i will say again, the biggest problem we had in this country, and i do not believe it is any fault..is we semi-locked down the entire country when only the NE should have been on a full lockdown. When people started seeing such low numbers everywhere else, naturally the reaction was WTF? NYC has an issue, not my city...and we went back to full normal to quick. It was understandable reaction. Again, no one to blame.

 

 

The one thing I have always stated, from the start..if we want to lockdown then lets lockdown. Should have been 21 days "lockdown"...and i mean no one leaves their freaking house. Grocery, essentials, beer, and weed delivered...only people out are grocery delivery people and people on the way to the hospital( as much as possible) . No Amazon delivery, no Walmart , Target and Kroger  being open, no carryout..nothing! That would have worked. Might be something to consider in these hotspots states now. ( NFL players exempted of course)

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I thought the deal is they are pre-producing 4 of the most likely vaccines now..the Pfizer deal the other day was part of this...i may be wrong, but that is what i thought

No doubt he had a different challenge.But by early April it was apparent this thing was attacking nursing homes with a vengeance, and he did not rescind the order till May 10. And plenty of experts, HCW, and people on this board were killing him for it on here. He made a mistake, its okay..everyone was still learning at that point.

 

And i will say again, the biggest problem we had in this country, and i do not believe it is any fault..is we semi-locked down the entire country when only the NE should have been on a full lockdown. When people started seeing such low numbers everywhere else, naturally the reaction was WTF? NYC has an issue, not my city...and we went back to full normal to quick. It was understandable reaction. Again, no one to blame.

 

 

The one thing I have always stated, from the start..if we want to lockdown then lets lockdown. Should have been 21 days "lockdown"...and i mean no one leaves their freaking house. Grocery, essentials, beer, and weed delivered...only people out are grocery delivery people and people on the way to the hospital( as much as possible) . No Amazon delivery, no Walmart , Target and Kroger  being open, no carryout..nothing! That would have worked. Might be something to consider in these hotspots states now. ( NFL players exempted of course)

 

Agree with a lot of this.  But, unless the plan is to drag out the virus spreading until after there is a vaccine (which could be available anytime between Friday and never) eventually a complete lockdown will end and the virus will spread through the population when the lockdown ends.  We delay the inevitable, but don't prevent it.

 

And if the idea is to get to "herd immunity" then lockdown the vulnerable tightly & don't lockdown the rest until the heavy transmission starts & then lockdown just enough to keep from overwhelming the healthcare system in that particular area.  Try to keep the transmission rate manageable.  

 

If the goal is something else other than 1 of the 2 extremes, state it explicitly and let people know what the plan is to reach THAT goal.

 

And getting back to Cuomo, won't criticize him for decisions made in March; but by mid-April at the latest he needed to rescind that Nursing Home directive.  He still had the Navy Medical Ship & the converted Javits Center available both sitting nearly empty to use as temporary housing for the nursing home residents to stay after they were well enough to leave the hospital but were still contagious.  How many lives would've been saved changing that order 3-4 weeks earlier than it was?

 

And the subways were handled about as poorly as possible- they cut down on the # of trains running, crowding the remaining riders into tighter spaces but didn't stop train service at any hours to allow for ACTUAL disinfection rather than simply wiping them down for a few minutes at night.  The disinfection via UV should've been happening by April 15 as well.

 

Really expecting we'll find in hindsight that what finally slowed the spread in NYC was they'd already reached / approached herd immunity after having it rage through for close to 2 months.  Would explain why LA & other major cities are getting hit hard now, but with similar behavior by its residents that NYC isn't seeing a 2nd wave commensurate to these other places initial waves.

[Magox]

11 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Agree with a lot of this.  But, unless the plan is to drag out the virus spreading until after there is a vaccine (which could be available anytime between Friday and never) eventually a complete lockdown will end and the virus will spread through the population when the lockdown ends.  We delay the inevitable, but don't prevent it.

 

And if the idea is to get to "herd immunity" then lockdown the vulnerable tightly & don't lockdown the rest until the heavy transmission starts & then lockdown just enough to keep from overwhelming the healthcare system in that particular area.  Try to keep the transmission rate manageable.  

 

If the goal is something else other than 1 of the 2 extremes, state it explicitly and let people know what the plan is to reach THAT goal.

 

And getting back to Cuomo, won't criticize him for decisions made in March; but by mid-April at the latest he needed to rescind that Nursing Home directive.  He still had the Navy Medical Ship & the converted Javits Center available both sitting nearly empty to use as temporary housing for the nursing home residents to stay after they were well enough to leave the hospital but were still contagious.  How many lives would've been saved changing that order 3-4 weeks earlier than it was?

 

And the subways were handled about as poorly as possible- they cut down on the # of trains running, crowding the remaining riders into tighter spaces but didn't stop train service at any hours to allow for ACTUAL disinfection rather than simply wiping them down for a few minutes at night.  The disinfection via UV should've been happening by April 15 as well.

 

Really expecting we'll find in hindsight that what finally slowed the spread in NYC was they'd already reached / approached herd immunity after having it rage through for close to 2 months.  Would explain why LA & other major cities are getting hit hard now, but with similar behavior by its residents that NYC isn't seeing a 2nd wave commensurate to these other places initial waves.

 

Removing the politics, the correct decision is to open up and protect the most vulnerable.  Encourage masks, not large indoor congregations and let’s get it on.     

[TH3]

1 hour ago, Gary M said:

 

ahh the human superiority complex, man cannot beat nature.

Umm ...you you need to cross out humans and insert “Americans”....most developed well run countries have a handle on this....we do not

[Magox]

Arizona hospital data continues it’s downward trend.  I would think that their deaths should be close to peaking and should start declining pretty soon.   With that said their high positive test rate is still super high.  That doesn’t comport with the hospital data, the only plausible thing I can really think of is who they are testing.  Maybe they aren’t conducting nearly as many sweeps as Florida and are primarily testing those showing symptoms.  With that said, total confirmed positives are trending lower.

 

 

[123719bwiqrb]

NPR tells me this morning that herd immunity is bunk and you can catch it every 3 months now.  But the vaccine will give you 1 year, maybe.  These buttplug reporters are amazing:

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/23/894548465/herd-immunity-response-to-covid-19-pandemic-can-be-problematic

Edited July 23, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb

[Gary M]

26 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Umm ...you you need to cross out humans and insert “Americans”....most developed well run countries have a handle on this....we do not

 

BULL, without testing they don't know the total numbers of asymptomatic people so their numbers are incomplete. When this is finally over every state and country will have the same percentage of positives, that's how virus' work.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by Gary M

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, GG said:

 

You're back to testing?  What was increased testing going to do with a virus that was fully established in NYC for about a month?

 

That was my point. Blaming Cuomo for NYS is like blaming Trump for NJ and PA. What happened in March and April was largely unavoidable *in the moment.* In retrospect, we could have done a lot of things better including not putting patients on their backs and rushing to use ventilators, but we just didn't know. I didn't see armies of people advocating for other mitigations and treatments--hell, doctors weren't even pushing for masks for the most part back until mid-April

 

Now, however, we know a lot better. The lack of unity and leadership is astonishing. Jesus, the president was getting attaboys this week for wearing a mask like he discovered a cure. It's July for *****'s sake. Is it some wonder that most people here seem to think masks are BS when the president won't even do the obvious? 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

I thought the deal is they are pre-producing 4 of the most likely vaccines now..the Pfizer deal the other day was part of this...i may be wrong, but that is what i thought

 

That's the goal of Bill Gates's (evil) enterprise. I saw yesterday an estimate that by the end of 2021 if everything goes according to plan, there may be 1.6B vaccines produced. That's still not enough to cover everyone and I have no idea how they will get prioritized. 

 

Quote

No doubt he had a different challenge.But by early April it was apparent this thing was attacking nursing homes with a vengeance, and he did not rescind the order till May 10. And plenty of experts, HCW, and people on this board were killing him for it on here. He made a mistake, its okay..everyone was still learning at that point.

 

I dunno. Any seed he planted in early April already had sprouted. They had no hospital capacity, few doctors, and a lot of things going to ***** at once. He should pay the political price for his decisions but I'm not sure how much data he had or what his options were. One can say, "they should have set up dedicated Covid hospitals," but that's not as easy as waving a magic wand, especially when your entire healthcare system is getting bombed out. 

 

Quote

And i will say again, the biggest problem we had in this country, and i do not believe it is any fault..is we semi-locked down the entire country when only the NE should have been on a full lockdown.

 

I was and continue to think this was the right approach. Where we have gone wrong is not getting the country together on distancing and masks, that is, getting everyone to act like this is a pandemic that requires social behavior changes. That required changing people's minds, inspiring them to think, "Hey, it's my duty to make some changes and be responsible in my life and business so we can get through this as a country." Not, "I'm from Florida, do Eff NY" as the Jacksonville guy was posting. The state-by-state "plan" has proven to be a disaster, fostered no sense of community, and proven to be totally ineffective. 

 

Quote

WThe one thing I have always stated, from the start..if we want to lockdown then lets lockdown. Should have been 21 days "lockdown"...and i mean no one leaves their freaking house. Grocery, essentials, beer, and weed delivered...only people out are grocery delivery people and people on the way to the hospital( as much as possible) . No Amazon delivery, no Walmart , Target and Kroger  being open, no carryout..nothing! That would have worked. Might be something to consider in these hotspots states now. ( NFL players exempted of course)

 

This was not going to happen in America, and frankly, I was against this. Only NYC metro needed to be locked down and the rest of the country should have been held to regional metrics based mostly on hospitals ability to cope. But that's just my 2 cents. 

Edited July 23, 2020 by shoshin

[Reality Check]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

That was my point. Blaming Cuomo for NYS is like blaming Trump for NJ and PA. What happened in March and April was largely unavoidable *in the moment.* In retrospect, we could have done a lot of things better including not putting patients on their backs and rushing to use ventilators, but we just didn't know. I didn't see armies of people advocating for other mitigations and treatments--hell, doctors weren't even pushing for masks for the most part back until mid-April

 

Now, however, we know a lot better. The lack of unity and leadership is astonishing. Jesus, the president was getting attaboys this week for wearing a mask like he discovered a cure. It's July for *****'s sake. Is it some wonder that most people here seem to think masks are BS when the president won't even do the obvious? 

 

 

You sound unhinged.

 

There is no cure.

 

There will never be a cure.

 

1,000 pages and you still don't understand how a virus operates.

 

The only people I know of that never get the flu, are people who don't take the flu vaccine.

 

The only people I know of that get sick every year are the ones that get the flu shot every year.

 

There is something obviously wrong with this picture, but you are a disciple of all things promoted by the pharmaceutical industry.

 

You have a vested interest in that propaganda.

 

I am looking forward to seeing how your propaganda evolves over the next 12 months.

 

Please continue...

 

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Reality Check said:

 

The only people I know of that never get the flu, are people who don't take the flu vaccine.

 

The only people I know of that get sick every year are the ones that get the flu shot every year.

 

 

This seems like a credible data point, thank you. 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

2 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

The only people I know of that never get the flu, are people who don't take the flu vaccine.

 

The only people I know of that get sick every year are the ones that get the flu shot every year.

 

Anecdotes by Reality Check

 

Because...

 

[SectionC3]

3 hours ago, GG said:

 

Doing something about a pandemic, like standing up a task force in January, while his healthcare advisors were downplaying the contagion spread because they thought it would be like SARS-1?  

 

You like to label everything a hoax, but certainly have no problem perpetuating proven hoaxes that your response is replete with.

 

Disingenuous partisan hack.

Speaking of hoaxes, I’m beginning to question your status as an intellectual standard bearer.  

 

If the best you have is, “He stood up at one point in January, and therefore it’s everyone else’s fault that he called it a hoax, tried to wish it away, did nothing to coordinate a national response, didn’t invoke the DPA to get PPE for struggling front-line workers, mocked those who wore masks, wasted time with hydroxychloroquine, TV ratings, and direct-to-lung Lysol treatments, and encouraged states to reopen before it was safe!,” then I guess we just agree to disagree.  I demand better from my leadership.  You apparently have much lower standards.   

[Magox]

Just more data backing up the herd-like immunity theory that New York city appears to have achieved.

 

 

28 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

Anecdotes by Reality Check

 

Because...

 

 

You wouldn't recognize science if it Bich slapped you. 

Edited July 23, 2020 by Magox

[GG]

11 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Speaking of hoaxes, I’m beginning to question your status as an intellectual standard bearer.  

 

If the best you have is, “He stood up at one point in January, and therefore it’s everyone else’s fault that he called it a hoax, tried to wish it away, did nothing to coordinate a national response, didn’t invoke the DPA to get PPE for struggling front-line workers, mocked those who wore masks, wasted time with hydroxychloroquine, TV ratings, and direct-to-lung Lysol treatments, and encouraged states to reopen before it was safe!,” then I guess we just agree to disagree.  I demand better from my leadership.  You apparently have much lower standards.   

 

You forgot drinking fish tank cleaner in your list of hoaxes.  You're slipping.

[WEATHER DOT COM]

 

[Chef Jim]

6 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

 

Hmmmmm a the number of cases of a highly infectious disease are increasing?  Say it ain't so.  Why are the deaths not increasing at the same rate? 

[Doc Brown]

46 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

The only people I know of that never get the flu, are people who don't take the flu vaccine.

 

The only people I know of that get sick every year are the ones that get the flu shot every year.

That very well could be because those who have weaker immune systems are more likely to get the flu shot (and the flu).  I refused to get vaccinated until I caught the flu one year.  Get a shot every year since and have been fine.  

 

I doubt they'll be a mandate for every citizen to get the Covid vaccine when it comes out.  Kids and teachers will pry be required to get it to enter public or private schools.  I'm guessing healthcare workers and many private companies will also require it for their employees. 

[ALF]

17 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Hmmmmm a the number of cases of a highly infectious disease are increasing?  Say it ain't so.  Why are the deaths not increasing at the same rate? 

 

I'm going to guess high risk people like at nursing homes are now better protected. Better treatment now and younger patients do better.

[Nanker]

Those most at risk in nursing homes are already dead Alf.