The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Kemp said:

https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/07/10/year-old-port-clinton-war-vet-dies-covid-complications-fourth-july/

Evil masks

 

Two different strains in all probability and comparing the population density of those two cities is quite the stretch.

Have you ever been to San Francisco? It’s not as dense as NY for sure but my god look at the difference in death count! They’re not in the same universe. 

[Magox]

7 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

So, you agree with me that the reason NYC was hit so hard  is because of population density and comparing it to other parts of the country is ridiculous. From a previous post of yours, I thought you held a different opinion.

 

Curious as to whether you think Fox, Breitbart and similar media are also disastrously bad.

 

They are all bad.  FOX and Breitbart are a counter creation because of the media.  Without a biased mainstream media, you wouldn't have FOX or Breitbart.    Now they are a necessary evil to counter balance the media.   

 

The whole institution needs to be ripped from its roots.

[GG]

8 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

So, you agree with me that the reason NYC was hit so hard  is because of population density and comparing it to other parts of the country is ridiculous. From a previous post of yours, I thought you held a different opinion.

 

 

 

NY got hit hard for 3 reasons - deadly virus strain, densely populated area that is highly dependent on mass transit AND highly incompetent leadership that didn't take the threat seriously and then screwed it all up.

[GOBUFFALO716]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Have you ever been to San Francisco? It’s not as dense as NY for sure but my god look at the difference in death count! They’re not in the same universe. 

A bologna sandwich is a ho-hum but ubiquitous lunch option, but there are ways to make it a bit more interesting. In the South, for example, cooks give this sandwich a bit of a twist by frying the bologna first. They simply place the bologna slices onto a lightly buttered griddle or nonstick pan and fry them up until they are browned. The thicker the cut of Bologna, the better, so ask for the bologna from the deli counter instead of buying it prepackaged.

A fried bologna sandwich makes a powerful statement so any side dishes served along with are definitely not the main attraction. But what they can do is balance out the heaviness—and the guilt—of this sandwich.
Good choices are cream or vinegar slaw, homegrown tomatoes (if they are not on the sandwich), pasta salad filled with veggies, or potato salad.

Less healthy but tasty options are french fries or potato chips—kettle cooked sea salt and vinegar, sea salt, and pepper, or plain are the best choices.

For a more upscale version of this humble sandwich, use artisan or French bread or a brioche bun instead of white bread. You can also grill the completed sandwich in a bit of butter for a crispy exterior and even more decadent lunch.

12 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

 

 

Curious as to whether you think Fox, Breitbart and similar media are also disastrously bad.

crickets 

 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, GOBUFFALO716 said:

A bologna sandwich is a ho-hum but ubiquitous lunch option, but there are ways to make it a bit more interesting. In the South, for example, cooks give this sandwich a bit of a twist by frying the bologna first. They simply place the bologna slices onto a lightly buttered griddle or nonstick pan and fry them up until they are browned. The thicker the cut of Bologna, the better, so ask for the bologna from the deli counter instead of buying it prepackaged.

A fried bologna sandwich makes a powerful statement so any side dishes served along with are definitely not the main attraction. But what they can do is balance out the heaviness—and the guilt—of this sandwich.
Good choices are cream or vinegar slaw, homegrown tomatoes (if they are not on the sandwich), pasta salad filled with veggies, or potato salad.

Less healthy but tasty options are french fries or potato chips—kettle cooked sea salt and vinegar, sea salt, and pepper, or plain are the best choices.

For a more upscale version of this humble sandwich, use artisan or French bread or a brioche bun instead of white bread. You can also grill the completed sandwich in a bit of butter for a crispy exterior and even more decadent lunch.

crickets 

 

I use to love fried bologna sandwiches! 

[Kemp]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Have you ever been to San Francisco? It’s not as dense as NY for sure but my god look at the difference in death count! They’re not in the same universe. 

 

Been to SF many times when I lived in L.A.

 

Not nearly as dense.

 

Probably a less lethal strain.

 

They knew to wear masks and social distance after NYC went through their nmightmare.

8 minutes ago, GG said:

 

NY got hit hard for 3 reasons - deadly virus strain, densely populated area that is highly dependent on mass transit AND highly incompetent leadership that didn't take the threat seriously and then screwed it all up.

 

The leadership in NY had no idea in the beginning what they were up against. By the time they figured it out, it was too late.

Sadly, at the national level it has still not been figured it out. Or worse.

[plenzmd1]

23 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

So, you agree with me that the reason NYC was hit so hard  is because of population density and comparing it to other parts of the country is ridiculous. From a previous post of yours, I thought you held a different opinion.

 

Curious as to whether you think Fox, Breitbart and similar media are also disastrously bad.

they are

[plenzmd1]

30 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

No, it’s a good point, it’s going to take some serious money to open up child care and schools. Israel saw a huge spike after they reopened. Masks, more staff, testing, setting up safe places etc will cost money 

Please provide the link to Israel spike and childcare  and schools being linked. I can only find articles that state child care is closing due to a spike in positives..which is not the same thing. Be interested to see if their data is different than other countries.

 

 

[snafu]

31 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

No, it’s a good point, it’s going to take some serious money to open up child care and schools. Israel saw a huge spike after they reopened. Masks, more staff, testing, setting up safe places etc will cost money 

 

Then the headline should preview the content of the article and mention $$; not leave people who breeze through to think the “troubling” part has anything to do with kids getting sick.

 

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

22 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

They are all bad.  FOX and Breitbart are a counter creation because of the media.  Without a biased mainstream media, you wouldn't have FOX or Breitbart.    Now they are a necessary evil to counter balance the media.   

 

The whole institution needs to be ripped from its roots.

 

<----was ahead of you by decades. The press is the enemy of the people.

 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Please provide the link to Israel spike and childcare  and schools being linked. I can only find articles that state child care is closing due to a spike in positives..which is not the same thing. Be interested to see if their data is different than other countries.

 

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains?ref=home 

[plenzmd1]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains?ref=home 

TY..need to read and understand

[GG]

22 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

The leadership in NY had no idea in the beginning what they were up against. By the time they figured it out, it was too late.

Sadly, at the national level it has still not been figured it out. Or worse.

 

Not quite correct.  The treatment procedures were still being figured out in March & April, but containment protocols were pretty clear, especially after what happened in Italy.  Yet, NY repeated all of Italy's mistakes.

 

Starting from the cluster of not taking the threat seriously enough through March, infighting between Cuomo and the big idiot, then cross contaminating multiple hospitals drove the carnage in NY.   If you care to look at the numbers, no states other than NJ are approximating NY's deadly results.   

 

The other states have certainly figured out how to minimize the severity of the outbreak and reduced deaths dramatically.

[bilzfancy]

A question for anyone who cares to answer... If vaccines for this virus becomes mandatory, will you get one?

[Tiberius]

Trump's white house is literally trashing Fauci during a pandemic. What a cruel joke this administration is 

[Kemp]

18 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Not quite correct.  The treatment procedures were still being figured out in March & April, but containment protocols were pretty clear, especially after what happened in Italy.  Yet, NY repeated all of Italy's mistakes.

 

Starting from the cluster of not taking the threat seriously enough through March, infighting between Cuomo and the big idiot, then cross contaminating multiple hospitals drove the carnage in NY.   If you care to look at the numbers, no states other than NJ are approximating NY's deadly results.   

 

The other states have certainly figured out how to minimize the severity of the outbreak and reduced deaths dramatically.

 

Not saying that Cuomo didn't make mistakes. He did and then corrected them, but too late for too many.

 

It might have helped if the federal government had taken it seriously and provided any kind of guidance instead of pretending there wasn't even a problem,  even though they absolutely knew the storm was coming.

[Buffalo_Gal]

CDC: COVID-19 Deaths for Week Ending June 27 Down 91.9% From Mid-April Peak
 

In the week that ended on June 27, there were 1,363 deaths in the United States involving COVID-19, which was a 91.9 percent drop from the peak of 16,895 COVID-involved deaths reported for the week that ended on April 18, according to the provisional COVID-19 death counts published by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), which is part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
 

The numbers updated by NCHS on July 13 show the weekly COVID-involved death count, based on death certificates, has been steadily dropping since the mid-April peak, even as the number of cases is rising, especially in Sunbelt states of Florida, Texas, Arizona and California.
 

The NCHS reports COVID-involved deaths weekly, updating the numbers as more death certificates come in. Based on the July 13 data, COVID deaths for the week ending June 27 (1,363) dropped 50.1 percent from the 2,733 posted for the prior week of June 20.
 

</snip>
 

June 27 is the most recent week to fall within that two-weeks-ago reporting period.
 

Preliminary data for the weeks ending July 4 (469 COVID deaths reported) and July 11 (137 COVID deaths reported) show the downward death count continues, even if those preliminary numbers will increase in the weeks ahead.
 

</snip>

[shoshin]

We've been talking about this for a few months but this is a nice Atlantic on Herd immunity:

 

In a pandemic, the heterogeneity of the infectious process also makes forecasting difficult. When you flip a coin, the outcome is not affected by the flips prior. But in dynamic systems, the outcomes are more like those in chess: The next play is influenced by the previous one. Differences in outcome can grow exponentially, reinforcing one another until the situation becomes, through a series of individually predictable moves, radically different from other possible scenarios. You have some chance of being able to predict the first move in a game of chess, but good luck predicting the last.

 

That’s exactly what Gomes’s work attempts to do. She describes a model in which everyone is equally susceptible to coronavirus infection (a homogeneous model), and a model in which some people are more susceptible than others (a heterogeneous model). Even if the two populations start out with the same average susceptibility to infection, you don’t get the same epidemics. “The outbreaks look similar at the beginning. But in the heterogeneous population, individuals are not infected at random,” she told me. “The highly susceptible people are more likely to get infected first. As a result, the average susceptibility gets lower and lower over time.”

 

Effects like this—“selective depletion” of people who are more susceptible—can quickly decelerate a virus’s spread. When Gomes uses this sort of pattern to model the coronavirus’s spread, the compounding effects of heterogeneity seem to show that the onslaught of cases and deaths seen in initial spikes around the world are unlikely to happen a second time. Based on data from several countries in Europe, she said, her results show a herd-immunity threshold much lower than that of other models.

 

“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”

 

[Kemp]

5 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

A question for anyone who cares to answer... If vaccines for this virus becomes mandatory, will you get one?

 

Depends on it's efficacy.

37 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

<----was ahead of you by decades. The press is the enemy of the people.

 

 

I'll take the press over government 10 out of 10 times.

[shoshin]

7 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

A question for anyone who cares to answer... If vaccines for this virus becomes mandatory, will you get one?

 

Asked this before. Most people who post here aren't interested in taking the vaccine.