The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[GG]

55 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

The Nazis had a similar view of who is worth surviving. I'm just speaking facts.

Then there are all the younger folks who are surviving with longterm health issues. No big deal, though.

 

Yet you choose to ignore the increasing deaths of despair of the younger people.   Making choices during Wuhan is not a free option.  The longer you keep the lockdown, the more you increase other deaths and domestic abuse.    Pick your poison and stop being a partisan hack.

[shoshin]

21 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

If you see here, in Florida the Emergency room visits and symptoms of COVID related hospitalizations are all beginning to crest.

 

And then you have this:

 

 

 

It's still too early to definitively say one way or another.  But the percent positive rate has begun to taper off over the past week and the Emergency room COVID symptom related visits have begun to plateau as well.   Hopefully this continues, if so, then I think it strongly supports the theory of once it reaches around that 15-20% area of COVID infections that the virus begins to burnout.

 

Thanks for the deep dive on Florida. I am not as invested in it--I hope there's a burnout soon and a decline in actual cases (not just positives). 

 

The hospital numbers you linked from your guy Berenson aren't lining up with other hospital data that's being published but this is just starting to be an issue now so time will tell what's happening in the ICUs. 

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

Then there are all the younger folks who are surviving with longterm health issues. No big deal, though.

 

 

Ah yep.  The next goal post when the nation and world are at full saturation and daily deaths here are less than 200 a day and 2000 worldwide by end of August.  

 

"But we dont know the long term health issues!!!"

 

It will be that and "2nd wave!"  

 

All code for fraud by mail and distancing (life destroying) policy until there is a fake vaccine.  

 

 

Where is the proof you have long term health issues btw?  What percentage of PATIENTS is this?  

[B-Man]

 

 

ISN’T THAT GOOD NEWS? 

 

CDC now estimates that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 don’t have any symptoms. 

 

“Under the CDC’s ‘current best estimate,’ 40% of people with Covid-19 are asymptomatic.

 

This number is up from the 35% the agency estimated on May 20.”

 

 

 

 

[Reality Check]

 

[Big Blitz]

We have entered Month 5 of 15 days to slow the spread.  

 

Keep telling yourselves this was about some 60 day mission to eradicate the virus.  It never was and never was possible.

 

Absolute insanity.  Science denying insanity.   

[B-Man]

 

 

LIFTING LOCKDOWNS NOT THE CULPRIT BEHIND NEW SURGE IN CORONAVIRUS CASES, DOCTOR SAYS:

Then [Scott Atlas, M.D., a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution] touched on one of the main issues — the massive protests in the wake of the horrific police killing of George Floyd.

 

“They correlate mainly to two things — the big thousands and thousands of people with protesting, sharing megaphones, screaming. That’s a setup to spread cases,” the doctor said. “And also when you look at the analysis of the border counties, there’s a tremendous amount of cases coming over the border and exchanging with families in the northern Mexico states.”

 

The doctor warned that hospitals are getting crowded not just because of new cases but because hospitals are finally addressing “regular medical care” again. “We have locked that down before and that policy kills people. So we don’t want to go back to that,” he said. Indeed, the original lockdowns often put a halt to all “elective” surgeries, including heart surgeries and cancer treatments.

 

The doctor presented a two-part solution: “really protect the high risk in a more diligent way than we are, the very highest-risk group” and “increase the hospital capacity.”

 

Atlas’s remarks attributing the rise in coronavirus cases to the protests are important. Many left-leaning politicians, journalists, and even public health officials have insisted that the George Floyd protests and other mass demonstrations would not spread the coronavirus. Even last week, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio defended the George Floyd protests while urging New Yorkers to avoid “large gatherings.”

 

 

 

Why, it’s like the protests are a state-sanctioned religion or something.

 

 

 

 

 

[shoshin]

Regarding CV-19 testing delays, there's this in the WAPO today:

 

Test results for the novel coronavirus are taking so long to come back that experts say the results across the United States are often proving useless in the campaign to control the deadly disease.

 

Some testing sites are struggling to provide results in five to seven days. Others are taking even longer. Outbreaks across the Sun Belt have strained labs beyond capacity. That rising demand, in turn, has caused shortages of swabs, chemical reagents and equipment as far away as New York.

 

The long testing turnaround times are making it impossible for the United States to replicate the central strategy used by other countries to effectively contain the virus — test, trace and isolate. Like catching any killer, speed is of the essence when it comes to the coronavirus.

 

Anecdotally, friends of ours got tested before traveling to Maine as that's the only way to avoid a 14-day quarantine. They've been in Maine for 10 days, results not yet back. (No, they are not quarantining though they are also not eating out or going to places with people except to get groceries.) Both times I got tested, I had the results in 3 days but that was a little while ago. 

 

So. We are still not getting it done. 

Edited July 13, 2020 by shoshin

[Big Blitz]

4 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

ISN’T THAT GOOD NEWS? 

 

CDC now estimates that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 don’t have any symptoms. 

 

“Under the CDC’s ‘current best estimate,’ 40% of people with Covid-19 are asymptomatic.

 

This number is up from the 35% the agency estimated on May 20.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

We are fast approaching 70 million people infected.   

 

Had we done nothing but lock down nursing homes, have the elderly law low and isolate as much as possible, not completely screw up nursing homes, we'd already be there and less than 100K would be dead.  

 

 

Doesn't matter.  They made up their minds this goes on until a vaccine or it's just blatantly obvious the virus has burned out via herd immunity.  But even when that happens they're going to still distance and warn us how serious a threat it is and we really need a vaccine to be sure to make billio....I mean the public's health.

[spartacus]

45 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Thanks for the deep dive on Florida. I am not as invested in it--I hope there's a burnout soon and a decline in actual cases (not just positives). 

 

The hospital numbers you linked from your guy Berenson aren't lining up with other hospital data that's being published but this is just starting to be an issue now so time will tell what's happening in the ICUs. 

 

As DeSantis has said repeatedly, Florida has had 6 months to prepare and has the ability to double their ICU capacity

The data showing shortages is based on baseline availability, which is misleading for 2 reasons

 

1. ICU space is being used by regular patients - which is how a well run hospital operates. The Houston CEO's noted they were at 95% capacity which is the same as they were at last year at this time. Hospitals make no money from empty beds. ICU capacity can be managed to handle covid needs

 

2. Florida has planned to double its ICU beds and add the required nurses, when and only if needed. This availability is not in the media fear porn stats. Florida has plenty of hospital capacity to handle the covid cases. this is after all admittances to the hospital for other treatment are tested and added to teh logs , even though not in the hospital for ccovid 

 

also note that the hotspots of south florida have ports capable of utilizing the US navy hospital ships that Cuomo ignored - if the situation became as dire as the media portrays

 

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by spartacus

[Magox]

14 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

ISN’T THAT GOOD NEWS? 

 

CDC now estimates that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 don’t have any symptoms. 

 

“Under the CDC’s ‘current best estimate,’ 40% of people with Covid-19 are asymptomatic.

 

This number is up from the 35% the agency estimated on May 20.”

 

 

 

 

 

I'd venture to guess its much higher than that.

 

 

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

As DeSantis has said repeatedly, Florida has had 6 months to prepare and has the ability to double their ICU capacity

The data showing shortages is based on baseline availability, which is misleading for 2 reasons

 

1. ICU space is being used by regular patients - which is how a well run hospital operates. The Houston CEO's noted they were at 95% capacity which is the same as they were at last year at this time. Hospitals make no money from empty beds. ICU capacity can be managed to handle covid needs

 

2. Florida has planned to double its ICU beds and add the required nurses, when and only if needed. These numbers are in the medial fear porn stats 

 

 

 

If all that's true, then hospitals are in good shape. 

[spartacus]

11 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

We are fast approaching 70 million people infected.   

 

Had we done nothing but lock down nursing homes, have the elderly law low and isolate as much as possible, not completely screw up nursing homes, we'd already be there and less than 100K would be dead.  

 

 

Doesn't matter.  They made up their minds this goes on until a vaccine or it's just blatantly obvious the virus has burned out via herd immunity.  But even when that happens they're going to still distance and warn us how serious a threat it is and we really need a vaccine to be sure to make billio....I mean the public's health.

they will drag out to the election with threat  of the "2nd wave"

NY already has minimal new cases and no deaths.

they are already at herd immunity

how can they justify any continuing restrictions

Edited July 13, 2020 by spartacus

[Magox]

This is another good potential sign and that Maricopa County/Phoenix is potentially hitting burnout as well.

 

Maricopa county has a large population of 4.4 million people.  They have 82,000 confirmed positives.  Arizona is not conducting nearly the amount of tests as Florida, so I would say that they easily are only capturing 10% of the real positives.   With 82,000 confirmed positives that most likely means they have pretty close to 800,000 who have truly contracted COVID-19.  Which puts them in that 15-20% burnout range.

 

Is there evidence to suggest that they are beginning to burnout?  Yes.  Not definitive but the trends are looking good.  They too are cresting with COVID hospitalizations.

 

 

 

If this theory plays out, Arizona should make a somewhat rapid drop as their population is densely made up in that one county.   Florida will be different, even though half the infections are in Southern Florida Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, places like Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando and some other cities still have a ways to go before they burnout.  So I would expect Arizona's improvement and descent in cases/hospitalizations/deaths will happen much quicker than Florida's which has many different population zones.  

[shoshin]

39 minutes ago, Magox said:

This is another good potential sign and that Maricopa County/Phoenix is potentially hitting burnout as well.

 

Maricopa county has a large population of 4.4 million people.  They have 82,000 confirmed positives.  Arizona is not conducting nearly the amount of tests as Florida, so I would say that they easily are only capturing 10% of the real positives.   With 82,000 confirmed positives that most likely means they have pretty close to 800,000 who have truly contracted COVID-19.  Which puts them in that 15-20% burnout range.

 

Is there evidence to suggest that they are beginning to burnout?  Yes.  Not definitive but the trends are looking good.  They too are cresting with COVID hospitalizations.

 

 

 

If this theory plays out, Arizona should make a somewhat rapid drop as their population is densely made up in that one county.   Florida will be different, even though half the infections are in Southern Florida Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, places like Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando and some other cities still have a ways to go before they burnout.  So I would expect Arizona's improvement and descent in cases/hospitalizations/deaths will happen much quicker than Florida's which has many different population zones.  

 

I know you like to call me  a dick (kidding, kidding) but I appreciate this. I've been buried in work and life and not able to dig out the actual numbers enough in the last 10 days...and remain astonished by how hard they are to get at. If AZ is indeed peaking and drops, that's a good sign for a lot of places because they were first into this current crest. Your point on large metros by state is a good one: TX and FL (and CA for that matter)  are different in that they all have several large metro areas but AZ is a good bellweather with just one--a little easier to just watch one place and get the feel for what other cities will  go through. 

 

I do see that AZ ICU availability has been steady for a couple weeks at 9-11% (down from its 40% availability in April). Could indicate a peak as well.

 

 

And you have to ignore the extreme tail of this chart because this data is slow to update but total hospitalizations in AZ also appear to be trending lower. 

 

 

AZ data for those interested. One of the better state repositories. 

 

 

By the way, imagine the outcry...if this thing is just moving from place to place.. when it hits SF/Silicon Valley! Biden has got to be hoping they don't get hit there until October 25th. 

Edited July 13, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I know you like to call me  a dick (kidding, kidding) but I appreciate this. I've been buried in work and life and not able to dig out the actual numbers enough in the last 10 days...and remain astonished by how hard they are to get at. If AZ is indeed peaking and drops, that's a good sign for a lot of places because they were first into this current crest. Your point on large metros by state is a good one: TX and FL (and CA for that matter)  are different in that they all have several large metro areas but AZ is a good bellweather with just one--a little easier to just watch one place and get the feel for what other cities will  go through. 

 

It's still too early to tell but if you remember how New York's slope began to look in these metrics they have the same shape to it, which is that cresting shape at a hopeful top.  I would say if we could continue to see another 3- 5 more days of these same metrics that were referenced to continue making that crest and rounding down, then this would be a good sign.  The only problem with the Florida data is that what I referenced was for the state of Florida and there is no way that all of Florida is burning out, only Dade and possibly Broward/Palm Beach would be experiencing a burnout.   Places like Hillsborough, Pinellas, Orange and Duval counties which are the other major population zones are not experiencing the level of infections as Southern Florida, but I suspect they aren't too far off.  These counties have anywhere from 12k-20k confirmed positives but they have anywhere from 1/2 to a 1/4 of the population as Dade, which probably puts them closer to 10-15%.  Probably closer to 10%.   At the rate of infections we are seeing they are probably 2-4 weeks behind Southern Florida. 

 

Then again, this whole theory of burnout with the T cells + antibodies could be wrong.   But, the evidence does seem compelling based off all the places that have hit that 20% range that seem to have burned out with very little signs of reemergence of the virus.  

[shoshin]

8 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It's still too early to tell but if you remember how New York's slope began to look in these metrics they have the same shape to it, which is that cresting shape at a hopeful top.  I would say if we could continue to see another 3- 5 more days of these same metrics that were referenced to continue making that crest and rounding down, then this would be a good sign.  The only problem with the Florida data is that what I referenced was for the state of Florida and there is no way that all of Florida is burning out, only Dade and possibly Broward/Palm Beach would be experiencing a burnout.   Places like Hillsborough, Pinellas, Orange and Duval counties which are the other major population zones are not experiencing the level of infections as Southern Florida, but I suspect they aren't too far off.  These counties have anywhere from 12k-20k confirmed positives but they have anywhere from 1/2 to a 1/4 of the population as Dade, which probably puts them closer to 10-15%.  Probably closer to 10%.   At the rate of infections we are seeing they are probably 2-4 weeks behind Southern Florida. 

 

Then again, this whole theory of burnout with the T cells + antibodies could be wrong.   But, the evidence does seem compelling based off all the places that have hit that 20% range that seem to have burned out with very little signs of reemergence of the virus.  

 

Agree on the states with multiple population centers. You have to go deeper on the state data for those.

 

I look at it like this: If AZ begins to drop off in the next week in hospitalizations, deaths will surely follow over a couple weeks. And they never shut down through this rise (they probably did a lot of staying inside, mask wearing, voluntary shutdowns, etc but not the full mandated magilla). That would be a truly fantastic piece of news. 

Edited July 13, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

6 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Agree on the states with multiple population centers. You have to go deeper on the state data for those.

 

I look at it like this: If AZ begins to drop off in the next week in hospitalizations, deaths will surely follow over a couple weeks. And they never shut down through this rise (they probably did a lot of staying inside, mask wearing, voluntary shutdowns, etc but not the full magilla). That would be a truly fantastic piece of news. 

 

Deaths lag as you know.  It was painful watching the positive green chutes data initially appear with NY city but to have the deaths lag weeks.   Plus all the legacy delayed data collections and those that were hospitalized for months before dying still take time to filter through.  But yes, I agree you would think 2-4 weeks we should begin seeing deaths peak in Arizona.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Magox

[Big Blitz]

Look at Israel's numbers.  

 

Did everything "right," right?

 

There is no running from this. 

[Penfield45]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

We have entered Month 5 of 15 days to slow the spread.  

 

Keep telling yourselves this was about some 60 day mission to eradicate the virus.  It never was and never was possible.

 

Absolute insanity.  Science denying insanity.   

 

what the ***** are you talking about? the country is no longer in lockdown. everyone is out and about living their lives, business are open. 

 

Grocery stores and food chains have made more money in the last 4 months than they probably have in any 4 month period in the last 50 years. stop fear mongering about the economy going to *****, it's perfectly fine. human life is more important and always will be.