The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[Dante]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Pneumonia always has been deadlier than the flu. Breaking news!

[shoshin]

 

Louisiana is as far as I know, the only state with a chart like this on cases, that is, with two significant rises. The original peak was thought to be related to Mardis Gras and New Orleans. I am not sure if this rise is in the same localities in NO or elsewhere. I'm sure the county data is out there. I may gather it later. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Big Blitz]

Michigan Governor Whitmer: Health Professionals Must Be Trained On Implicit Bias

 

"Michigan state officials report that the black population in the state, which comprises 14% of the state’s population, has experienced 30% of all coronavirus cases and 40% of coronavirus deaths.."

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/michigan-governor-whitmer-health-professionals-must-be-trained-on-implicit-bias

 

 

 

That's not implicit bias or racism Governor

 

You going to start advising actual policy that may help these people----like Vitamin D.  Or should we just keep mask shaming?  

 

[Magox]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

It seems the theory is that to reach herd immunity you need to have ~80% of the population exhibit resistance to catching/transmitting the virus.

 

Initial theories were that because this virus is "novel" that nearly 0% of the population would be naturally resistant to it and you'd need 70%+ of the population to be exposed to it to reach herd immunity.

 

There are now studies (no idea whether they are valid) estimating that up to 70% of the population may have a natural resistance to the virus due to exposure to other coronaviruses over their lives.  My guess is that is an overly optimistic estimate.  But there are studies that suggest in the places that had major hot spots, such as Milan or NYC, that ~20% of the population was exposed to the point of contracting the virus.  NYC also doesn't seem to be having a 2nd wave despite the fact that there were thousands of people out at the protests.  So, maybe that 20% is accurate and also maybe NYC has reached the mythical herd immunity.  If so, it would seem ~60% of the population is naturally resistant.

 

If the 20% is the true threshold we need to reach herd immunity, then these new areas having their 1st wave is a good thing as they'll get to that level sometime in the next few weeks.  And those areas should be in decent shape in the fall.

 

IF those assumptions are valid, then it's those of us that live rurally that haven't seen the 1st wave yet that will have to deal with this in the fall when the normal flu season starts.

 

Hard to say about any of it because there is so much BS getting floated from both directions.  Thanks @Magox @SoCal Deek and even @shoshin for bringing us data that seems to be more reliable than a lot of it.

 

 

It's hard to know the exact numbers because we don't know the real numbers.  So to know you have to know.  If that makes any sense.

 

With that said, I think you are on the right track and if I had to take a guess I would say that you are in the vicinity of what it would take if this theory is indeed true.  Which I believe it to be.

 

That a significant portion of the population already has a level of immunity to COVID 19 from previous coronaviruses and other viruses.  Not all levels of immunity are the same, I would venture to guess it's on a spectrum with various variables in place, such as length of time the immunity lasts, age, underlying factors, natural immunity based defenses etc.   determining how much immunity it has provided.  Some of the immunities may completely ward off the virus, some may allow you to get infected but with no symptoms, others with mild symptoms and so on and so on. 

 

I would venture to guess anywhere from 30-60% already have some level of immunity due to these previous viral infections they had contracted.

 

Since the antibody tests are not perfectly conducted and there are studies that show that even people who don't test positive for the antibodies but did contract the virus to a degree that have T cells that showed up that help fight the virus, it's a still a bit murky.   Antibodies attack the virus before they hit the cells and if that fails the T cells are supposed to attack the virus once the cells have been infected by the virus so that they don't continue to spread to other cells.

 

It seems to me based off of antibody tests that the 20% COVID infected area is right around where burnout of the virus seems to really take place.  I suspect the beginning of the downward slope of an area that has experienced an uncontrollable outbreak begins much sooner, probably around the 15% range.  It just seems that wherever you have seen these 20% COVID affected areas that they have experienced a burnout, because there are no sighs that I can see in these areas that we are seeing any real increase in the virus.  Italy, Belgium, London, Connecticut, New Jersey, Boston, New York City and Sweden being prime examples.  People are now out and about in all these areas and there are no viral outbreaks, what gives?  

 

There are other thoughts and potential explanations that I could provide, hardly any that have been discussed and maybe when I have time I'll discuss them.   But to me it seems not only logical but likely that these other past viruses are creating levels of immunity to go along with the antibodies that are being created by COVID 19 to help establish herd like immunities. 

2 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

I disagree. I think he totally knows it's media driven, and he also knows why: to freak people out (majority of country actually believes it's getting worse) to get the country to fully shut down again, which would decimate the economy and give enough people reason to believe it's time to try something new, like an angry, old, racist white guy who's been in politics for over 40 years and is suddenly going to fix things he's been unable to fix in his previous 40 years.

 

They hate Trump so much they are fine seeing thousands of businesses shut down forever just to get him out of office.

 

 

It's a cynical view but it's possible.  lol

Edited July 10, 2020 by Magox

[123719bwiqrb]

1 hour ago, Dante said:

Pneumonia always has been deadlier than the flu. Breaking news!

And if we always wear a mask to inifinity, pneumonia deaths will fade too.

[Gary M]

4 hours ago, Tiberius said:

ASU researchers develop cheaper, faster saliva test for COVID-19 

 

 

Researchers at the ASU Biodesign Institute must wear protective gear while testing samples for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. (Source: ASU Biodesign Institute) 

By Nathaniel Boyle | July 8, 2020 at 5:16 PM MST - Updated July 8 at 5:18 PM 

PHOENIX — As the number of Arizonans who have contracted COVID-19 has raced past 100,000, testing for the novel coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease has become a priority. Some of that testing now is being done through saliva, a process that’s easier and less expensive.

Arizona’s first saliva test – designed by scientists at Arizona State University to make university-wide testing feasible in the fall – already has been administered to more than 6,000 people, according to Vel Murugan, an associate research professor at ASU’s Biodesign Institute. It’s an alternative to nasopharyngeal swabs, which are uncomfortable and can be dangerous to frontline workers.

Saliva tests may be even more accurate than nasal tests, said Joshua LaBaer, executive director of the Biodesign Institute. Nasopharyngeal swabs involve inserting a cotton swab into the nose and pushing it to the back of the palate, where the sample is collected. The swab then is put into about half a teaspoon of liquid, mostly saline.

“But in the case of the saliva test, the entire sample is produced by the person,” he said. “So, if there’s virus in there, there’s probably a little bit more virus in the saliva test. So, in our hands, it’s as effective, and in at least a couple of cases it looks like it might be a little bit more effective.”

 

So they wear that to be protected , but a bandana is going to protect me!!!! ?

3 hours ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

This liberal would love it. The more people who wear masks, the quicker this ***** is over with. I'd like to watch a kickoff in September.

 

Wrong again, the more people that wear masks the longer it will take to get to the HIT.

[Tiberius]

9 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

So they wear that to be protected , but a bandana is going to protect me!!!! ?

 

 

It might ya, if it keeps someone from transmitting the virus to you, ya 

[Gary M]

8 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

It might ya, if it keeps someone from transmitting the virus to you, ya 

 

Highly doubtful

 

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

Highly doubtful

 

It’s still cool to walk into a bank with a bandana on your face, though 

[Big Blitz]

 

[realtruelove]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Michigan Governor Whitmer: Health Professionals Must Be Trained On Implicit Bias

 

"Michigan state officials report that the black population in the state, which comprises 14% of the state’s population, has experienced 30% of all coronavirus cases and 40% of coronavirus deaths.."

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/michigan-governor-whitmer-health-professionals-must-be-trained-on-implicit-bias

 

 

 

That's not implicit bias or racism Governor

 

You going to start advising actual policy that may help these people----like Vitamin D.  Or should we just keep mask shaming?  

 

I would wager that if we got everyone to monitor their Vitamin D levels and supplementing we could cut the cases in half.  I have yet to hear any public official promote anything that would enable a person to better fight the virus with their own immune system by promoting a good diet, exercise, and controlling their weight.  That would be too offensive.  

[Big Blitz]

Germany!  They did soooooo much better than us!

 

 

 

Annnnnnnnnnd reality:

 

Flare-Up in Virus Cases Sets Back Germany’s Efforts to Reopen

A spike of more than 1,500 coronavirus infections within days has dealt a sudden blow to Germany’s efforts to reopen the country, calling into question the durability of what had been widely considered a success story in managing the contagion in Europe.

 

 

With the virus seemingly in check, the chancellor agreed that the country could “afford a little audacity,” by lifting restrictions. But she warned states not to move too quickly and to remain cautious, and insisted that they reimpose restrictions if more than 50 cases cropped up per 100,000 residents.

 

Ms. Merkel was adamant that the reproduction rate of the virus, known as the R number, needed to remain below 1 — meaning that each infected person infected only one other — to ensure public safety. Last weekend the rate countrywide hit a high of more than 2, before rolling back to 1.11 this week.

 

Social distancing and aggressive efforts at contact tracing — including the unveiling of a smartphone app last week that has been downloaded by 12 million people — have remained in place as part of efforts to ensure safety...

 

But the country’s opening has nonetheless been accompanied by a rise in cases — so far manageable but increasingly concerning. Overall, Germany has reported 192,079 cases of coronavirus so far, with 8,927 fatalities.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-reopening.html

 

 

 

ANYWHERE you see the media trumpeting a success story that isnt an island nation that has had zero visitors from elsewhere, they are not telling you about their "reopenings."  

 

Germany may (for now) have lower "cases!" then us....but their economy is being sustained by massive government spending on unemployment.  Distancing is still everywhere.  Capacity limits.  No schools. 

 

This is not a success story.  They are delaying the inevitable.  And it's been 6 full months there.  

 

Still social Distancing.  Still enforcing aggressive measures to "defeat" a virus.  

 

Yep.  That ain't living.  Going to need a whole lot of justification and explanation to be doing that here beyond September let alone right fricking now.  

 

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Big Blitz]

Here is life in "success" story South Korea:

 

"...City officials have subsequently executed a series of U-turns and toughened controls. The return of school students to physical classrooms full-time has again been delayed. Nightclubs and bars — which had initially remained open — have been closed and access to public spaces such as museums, parks, conference halls and indoor sports facilities is restricted." 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/d68d6292-0486-4bfc-bf5c-54ce850a3f7a

 

 

And like I said earlier today here is Governor Blackface threatening to not open schools at all if the numbers continue to climb (which if you haven't gotten the message by now, there is no way they DO NOT climb unless everyone stays at home and life continues .......at 20% capacity.  In face diapers.

 

COVID case uptick in Virginia prompts warning from the governor: 'I won't hesitate to impose restrictions'

https://www.wtvr.com/news/coronavirus/covid-case-uptick-in-virginia-prompts-warning-from-the-governor-i-wont-hesitate-to-impose-restrictions

 

 

We're all being played.  

 

[Dante]

2 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

And if we always wear a mask to inifinity, pneumonia deaths will fade too.

Maybe we should just wear paint respirators 24/7 from now on and be real safe? Why even leave the house if it's that unsafe? Hell why even get out of bed we can have our pc's in there and maybe become bubble boys?? In fact, why even live at all if life is that dangerous? You know, safety is always first these days

[Penfield45]

11 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Here is life in "success" story South Korea:

 

"...City officials have subsequently executed a series of U-turns and toughened controls. The return of school students to physical classrooms full-time has again been delayed. Nightclubs and bars — which had initially remained open — have been closed and access to public spaces such as museums, parks, conference halls and indoor sports facilities is restricted." 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/d68d6292-0486-4bfc-bf5c-54ce850a3f7a

 

 

And like I said earlier today here is Governor Blackface threatening to not open schools at all if the numbers continue to climb (which if you haven't gotten the message by now, there is no way they DO NOT climb unless everyone stays at home and life continues .......at 20% capacity.  In face diapers.

 

COVID case uptick in Virginia prompts warning from the governor: 'I won't hesitate to impose restrictions'

https://www.wtvr.com/news/coronavirus/covid-case-uptick-in-virginia-prompts-warning-from-the-governor-i-wont-hesitate-to-impose-restrictions

 

 

We're all being played.  

 

 

Virginia has been one of the best states in handling the virus. if they don't wanna open schools then they won't. there is nothing anyone will do about it because what their government has been doing so far has saved thousands of lives. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

 

 

It's hard to know the exact numbers because we don't know the real numbers.  So to know you have to know.  If that makes any sense.

 

With that said, I think you are on the right track and if I had to take a guess I would say that you are in the vicinity of what it would take if this theory is indeed true.  Which I believe it to be.

 

 

 

...therein lies the problem and it makes PERFECT sense.....the publicized MSM "numbers" focus solely on positive cases because it politically sells and fuels TDS syndrome.....hopefully the scientific community gets more specific breakdowns of the numbers to make their assessments....at the same time, I believe they have a tendency to err on the side of caution, favoring science without looking at the overall big picture and ramifications....should be some sort of reasonable consensus IMO....and REASONABLY, this is an ever changing picture dealing with a phenomenon not faced since 1917.......

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Penfield45 said:

 

Virginia has been one of the best states in handling the virus. if they don't wanna open schools then they won't. there is nothing anyone will do about it because what their government has been doing so far has saved thousands of lives. 

 

 

Nope.  Virginia's numbers have been low bc this state can do a ton of telework.  And nothing has been open until June 15.  

 

The UVA model.  Google that.

 

And their conclusions aren't rocket science.  If we start living our li.....I mean reopen you will get more cases unless you've gotten to herd immunity.  They said that we'll be at 5K to 9K cases a day.  I don't think we'll see that.   It will be around 2K and Gov Blackface will shut us down.  

 

The spike is coming we just delayed it.  

 

They know it to.  That's why the schools that have decided to push their start date back to Sept 8....they know we're going to get peak cases late July into early August.

 

When the Global Economy is in free fall in mid 2021, and the socialist revolutions come, we'll all look back and ask how could we have let these people have this much control?  Over a virus with a 0.26 IFR.  

 

I hope I'm wrong.  

[shoshin]

Looks like a lot of new states getting in on the high case counts. Georgia most notably but the Carolinas and Tennessee also starting to show up. 

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

It takes weeks to get COVID-19 test results in Arizona. That makes it harder to control the spread

Rachel LeingangAlison Steinbach

Arizona Republic

0:22

1:05

A Tucson man waited 27 days for his COVID-19 test results. His test was negative, meaning he isolated from his family for two weeks for nothing.

A man in Phoenix has been waiting for 12 days for test results because he needed to show his dentist he was negative within 10 days of a dental procedure. It's now essentially impossible for him to get a timely test and results in order to qualify for the procedure. 

Arizonans routinely are waiting more than a week to get their test results for COVID-19.

It's not just personally inconvenient for those waiting for results: The delays hinder the state's ability to effectively contact trace and isolate cases and contacts, making it difficult to adequately control the spread of the virus.

The keys to cutting off new cases included testing both symptomatic people and those who may have been in contact with positive cases. Because there is known asymptomatic spread of the virus, testing should include people without symptoms. After testing, positive cases should isolate and notify their contacts so that they can get tested and isolate as well.

But that process is breaking down in Arizona, in part because of the slow results.

 

A person waiting for results may not isolate themselves from others. If people learn weeks later that they were positive, their contacts cannot be notified until after the results. Those contacts may not have been isolating, potentially spreading the virus to others.

There's no hard and fast rule for how soon results should come back, though all seem to agree: the sooner, the better — for both waiting patients and for controlling the spread to others.

Gov. Doug Ducey said Thursday the state would ramp up COVID-19 testing after weeks of insufficient testing during Arizona's rampant spike in cases. New efforts seek to expand supplies and bandwidth for people wanting to get tested and to boost processing capacity so that results can come back faster. 

Plans announced Thursday include more testing and processing by Sonora Quest Laboratories, and pushing a saliva-based test created by Arizona State University to the general public. The plans aim to put more testing options in underserved areas, such as west and south Phoenix. 

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How testing delays affect everything 

Dr. Cara Christ, the director of the Arizona Department of Health Services, said the state is working to add testing sites, secure supplies to improve turnaround times and bring in new providers who can conduct tests.

“There's a lot that we're doing to increase our lab capacity so that it improves the turnaround time because we've been really frustrated, from a public health standpoint, with the length that it takes for people to get their results,” Christ said.

Christ said people ideally should get test results within 24-to-48 hours in order for public health responses to work effectively. A quick turnaround means people are more likely to isolate if they are positive, and contacts can be reached sooner by health officials, she said.

“If you're not getting that result for five days and you feel completely fine or maybe you just have a little bit of mild symptoms, you might think to yourself, 'Oh, it's OK if I run out to the store or I go to work today,'” she said.

Delayed results have a "cascade effect" on public health response, said Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association. People don't know if they're positive, so they don't change their behavior. Counties don't know until much later who the positive cases are, hindering effective contact tracing and case investigations. 

"If the labs were coming back five to six to seven days after the sample was taken, it doesn't matter how good the contact tracing capacity is, it doesn't matter how good and efficient they are at following up, the infections would have already spread to their coworkers and family members and roommates by then because very few people isolate between the time their sample is taken and they get their test results back," Humble said.

Maricopa County, which has struggled to keep up robust contact tracing as cases have grown exponentially, said its public health department is regularly receiving lab results five-to-10 days after people are tested. 

"That means people have potentially been spreading the disease for a week or more and cases have no idea they are infected," spokesman Ron Coleman said in an email. "Contacts have often already developed disease by the time we learn of the positive result. In addition, we aren’t receiving contact information for about 15% of cases meaning investigators spend valuable time trying to find people."

Coleman said the earlier the public health department receives positive test results, the earlier they can begin contact tracing. 

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/07/06/slow-covid-19-test-results-have-cascade-effect-public-health/5386582002/

 

Just posting don't blame the poster.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan