The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Magox]

More on Sweden and how they got it right.

 

 

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So now we know: Sweden got it largely right, and the British establishment catastrophically wrong. Anders Tegnell, Stockholm’s epidemiologist-king, has pulled off a remarkable triple whammy: far fewer deaths per capita than Britain, a maintenance of basic freedoms and opportunities, including schooling, and, most strikingly, a recession less than half as severe as our own.

Our arrogant quangocrats and state “experts” should hang their heads in shame: their reaction to coronavirus was one of the greatest public policy blunders in modern history, more severe even than Iraq, Afghanistan, the financial crisis, Suez or the ERM fiasco. Millions will lose their jobs when furlough ends; tens of thousands of small businesses are failing; schooling is in chaos, with A-level grades all over the place; vast numbers are likely to die from untreated or undetected illnesses; and we have seen the first exodus of foreigners in years, with the labour market survey suggesting a decline in non-UK born adults.

Pandemics always come with large economic and social costs, for reasons of altruism as well as of self-interest. The only way to contain the spread of a deadly, contagious disease, in the absence of a cure or vaccine, is to social distance; fear and panic inevitably kick in, as the public desperately seeks to avoid catching the virus. A “voluntary” recession is almost guaranteed.

But if a drop in GDP is unavoidable, governments can influence its size and scale. Politicians can react in one of three ways to a pandemic. They can do nothing, and allow the disease to rip until herd immunity is reached. Quite rightly, no government has pursued this policy, out of fear of mass deaths and total social and economic collapse.

 

 

 

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The second approach involves imposing proportionate restrictions to facilitate social distancing, banning certain sorts of gatherings while encouraging and informing the public. The Swedes pursued a version of this centrist strategy: there was a fair bit of compulsion, but also a focus on retaining normal life and keeping schools open. The virus was taken very seriously, but there was no formal lockdown. Tegnell is one of the few genuine heroes of this crisis: he identified the correct trade-offs.

The third option is the full-on statist approach, which imposes a legally binding lockdown and shuts down society. Such a blunderbuss approach may be right under certain circumstances – if a vaccine is imminent – or for some viruses – for example, if we are ever hit with one that targets children and comes with a much higher fatality rate – but the latest economic and mortality statistics suggest this wasn’t so for Covid-19.

Almost all economists thought that Sweden’s economy would suffer hugely from its idiosyncratic strategy. They were wrong. Sweden’s GDP fell by just 8.6 per cent in the first half of the year, all in the second quarter, and its excess deaths jumped 24 per cent. A big part of Sweden’s recession was caused by a slump in demand for its exports from its fully locked-down neighbours. One could speculate that had all countries pursued a Swedish-style strategy, the economic hit could have been worth no more than 3-4 per cent of GDP. That could be seen as the core cost of the virus under a sensible policy reaction.

 

 

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By contrast, Britain’s economy slumped by 22.2 per cent in the first half of the year, a performance almost three times as bad as Sweden’s, and its excess deaths shot up by 45 per cent. Spain’s national income slumped even more (22.7 per cent), and France’s (down 18.9 per cent) and Italy’s (down 17.1 per cent) slightly less, but all three also suffered far greater per capita excess deaths than Sweden. The Swedes allowed the virus to spread in care homes, so if that major failure had been fixed, their death rate could have been a lot lower still

 

 

A better gauge to judge the public health response will be to view the excess deaths as that would encompass all the deaths whether it was COVID or COVID indirectly related deaths.  I have a very strong hunch that the excess death count will continue to trend in Sweden's favor relative to the rest of Europe, North and South America.   They will have largely burnt out, they won't have nearly as many residual deleterious public health effects such as suicides, drug overdoses, crime, lack of care etc that were caused by the draconian measures.    

 

[SoCal Deek]

Without quoting the entire article on India above, what made me laugh is that ‘many scientists now downplay the need for hand washing as central to controlling Covid spread’. I’m glad we’re following The Science because apparently the scientific community doesn’t have a clue as to what to do about Covid 19. I’m betting tomorrow Fauchi comes out promoting foot washing.

[BillStime]

 

[shoshin]

Trump must have said to mask up 5 times in his press conference yesterday and even said it was patriotic. What a shocking change. 

 

Anyone have eyes on Buffalo_Gal? I want to make sure she hasn't taken a header off the Rainbow Bridge!

[3rdnlng]

While I am reluctant to quote Slime's Fox poll above I must admit I did take a quick look at it. What jumped out at me was Trump's favorable rating (38%) and unfavorable rating of 60% just a couple of days before his election in 2016. Seems like something just doesn't compute. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

Trump must have said to mask up 5 times in his press conference yesterday and even said it was patriotic. What a shocking change. 

 

Anyone have eyes on Buffalo_Gal? I want to make sure she hasn't taken a header off the Rainbow Bridge!

Masks are ***** stupid. ? Clear enough for you?

 

[B-Man]

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Blitz]

"We have to live with this."

 

But this isn't living.  

 

 

 

“We know this virus is not going away any time soon. It’s established itself and is going to keep on transmitting wherever it’s able to do so,” Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist for the World Health Organization, at the “How Covid-19 Is Reshaping the Global Healthcare Ecosystem” event hosted by Bloomberg Prognosis. “We know we have to live with this.”

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/covid-19-shaping-up-to-be-battle-for-years-even-with-vaccine/ar-BB17VVTN

Edited August 14, 2020 by Big Blitz

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Didn't check the numbers but 100% we have lost our minds on this widespread lockdown. 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Didn't check the numbers but 100% we have lost our minds on this widespread lockdown. 

 

 

It all ends on the first Wednesday in November!

[Chef Jim]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

It all ends on the first Wednesday in November!

Especially if Biden wins. 

[ziltoid]

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

Especially if Biden wins. 

Imagine the pants pooping if he loses.  Mass exodus to Canada, just like last time.

 

Report from the front lines of the finger lakes - wine still tastes good, even in a pandemic. All NYers are perfunctorily wearing their masks and moving on with their lives. Lots of Cuomo Crackers being consumed.

[IDBillzFan]

7 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Looks like the left no longer likes Fauci.

[Chef Jim]

12 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

Imagine the pants pooping if he loses.  Mass exodus to Canada, just like last time.

 

Report from the front lines of the finger lakes - wine still tastes good, even in a pandemic. All NYers are perfunctorily wearing their masks and moving on with their lives. Lots of Cuomo Crackers being consumed.

I would love to be on the Lakes right now but NY doesn’t want my California Covid Contaminated Currency I guess. 

[ziltoid]

5 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

I would love to be on the Lakes right now but NY doesn’t want my California Covid Contaminated Currency I guess. 

Forever unclean Uncle ChefJim, forever unclean.

[Deranged Rhino]

[Buffalo_Gal]

LOL
 

 

 

[Big Blitz]

‘Improving Reality:’ Weekly Coronavirus Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations Fall

“The falls in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths should be good news, and in reality, they likely do reflect an improving reality on the ground,” the COVID Tracking Project acknowledged in its weekly assessment.

 

 

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/08/14/improving-reality-weekly-coronavirus-cases-deaths-hospitalizations-fall/

 

 

Over 1/3 the new cases today and half the deaths were CA, FL, and TX.  All their numbers are declining....CA a bit slower.  

 

 

Good news.  See you all at Bills games by 2025. 

Edited August 15, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Magox]

On 7/10/2020 at 7:23 AM, Magox said:

 

 I predicted we would bottom out at around 500 over a month ago and that is EXACTLY where it bottomed out.  I also said two weeks ago that I thought this was the week we would see it increase which it was.  That trend will continue to go higher for the next 4-6 weeks Before it begins to head down.  We will see if that plays out.

 

 

 

We are either at a top in deaths or at near the top.   This is two days in a row where deaths are lower than the previous week and the week over week average have begun to decline.  Had a couple days last week where the death total was lower than the previous week.   Positivity rate is trending lower nicely.

 

Made the prediction about 5 weeks ago that we would top out in 4-6 weeks.   The deaths are a little higher that I thought we'd be which was around 900 deaths (7 day moving average), it seems as if it MAY have topped out around 1070.    If it plays out the way I think it will I believe we will begin to trend lower and make new lows in October some time.